GDP *DROPS* in 4Q12 [Archive] - Debate Policy

tailfins

01-30-2013, 09:58 AM

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100419252

The surprise contraction could raise fears about the economy's ability to handle tax increases that took effect in January and looming spending cuts.
(http://www.cnbc.com/id/100419252)

fj1200

01-30-2013, 10:02 AM

I thought we fixed the "cliff." :dunno:

This could give the GOP some power to force change and gain seats in '14.

Trigg

01-30-2013, 01:07 PM

no no, this is a good thing just ask a dem

Democrats are touting the claim that this is "the best-looking contraction in U.S. GDP you'll ever see." The claim (http://money.cnn.com/2013/01/30/news/economy/gdp-report/?hpt=hp_t1) was originally made by chief U.S. economist for Capital Economics Paul Ashworth."The drag from defense spending and inventories is a one-off. The rest of the report is all encouraging," Ashworth also claimed.

http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/dems-tout-claim-best-looking-contraction-us-gdp-youll-ever-see_698863.html

Kathianne

01-30-2013, 05:33 PM

Mundame is certain we've turned the bend. Full recovery, just over the horizon.

KarlMarx

01-30-2013, 05:46 PM

Mundame is certain we've turned the bend. Full recovery, just over the horizon.
There is a light at the end of the tunnel but, unfortunately, it's an oncoming train

red states rule

01-31-2013, 03:08 AM

I thought we fixed the "cliff." :dunno:

This could give the GOP some power to force change and gain seats in '14.

Will never happen.

Obama, the Dems, and the liberal media are blaming Republicans

One of the virtues of the “let it burn” strategy, in which the GOP stands aside and lets Democrats lead America to a new golden age by passing the unsustainable liberal agenda in toto, is that it would spare us this, at least. Aren’t single-payer and open borders a price worth paying to watch Carney and Obama field questions about policy failures without a Republican crutch to lean on? Then they could get back to the messaging they prefer, that those policy failures really aren’t failures at all (http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2013/01/30/why-gdp-drop-is-no-big-deal.html).

“This report is nowhere near as bad as it looks on the surface,” said Nigel Gault, chief U.S. economist at HIS Global Insight. “It would be a mistake to view this drop in GDP – driven by temporary corrections in defense spending and inventories – as a possible harbinger of recession…
Austerity, it turns out, detracts from growth. In the fourth quarter, declining state and local government spending reduced GDP by 8 basis points. But the real drag on growth in the fourth quarter was the federal government, and especially the Pentagon. Defense spending plunged 22.2 percent, subtracting 1.28 percentage points from the growth rate. The decline is partly due to the continuing drawdowns from Iraq and Afghanistan, and partly due to seasonal spending factors (defense spending in the third quarter actually rose sharply.) But there’s a third factor at work: “A likely explanation for the sharp decline in Federal defense spending is uncertainty concerning the automatic spending cuts that were scheduled to take effect in January, and are currently scheduled to take effect on March 1st,” Alan Krueger noted.
Those automatic cuts were, of course, originally proposed by Obama (http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/331509/contra-obamas-debate-remark-white-house-proposed-sequestration-cuts-katrina-trinko), and one of the chief reasons he wants Hagel at the Pentagon is so that he’ll have Republican cover (http://hotair.com/archives/2013/01/24/ryan-full-speed-ahead-on-the-sequester-unless-democrats-agree-to-other-cuts/) when the next round of GDP-shrinking defense cuts begins. (He also issued veto threats (http://www.armytimes.com/news/2012/09/dn-obama-threatens-veto-on-house-sequestration-bill-091212/) in the past when the House GOP tried to replace some defense cuts in the sequester with other discretionary cuts.) So that’s one alternative. The other is to keep spending to the tune of $1 trillion a year in deficits until we have a consistently growing economy, whereupon Keynesians on the left will declare that we can’t cut spending just yet because it’ll imperil the new recovery. Which do you prefer?

http://hotair.com/archives/2013/01/30/video-jay-carney-blames-republicans-for-the-terrible-economic-report-of-course/

and if a majority of voters (ie takers) bought Obama's never ending excuse that Pres Bush was to blame for this economy - there will be enough idiots to buy this excuse as well

red states rule

01-31-2013, 03:46 AM

Speaking of Mundame, just for her I have a few comments from El Rushbo on the Obama "recovery"

Listen to this: "The surprise contraction could raise fears about the economy's ability to handle tax increases that took effect in January and looming spending cuts."

Really? I thought tax increases were great for the economy. That's what the news media and the Democrat Party has been telling us. Same thing with unemployment benefits. I thought that was great for economic growth. What happened to that? The surprise contraction could raise fears about the economy's ability to handle tax increases. You mean they've known all along at AP that tax increases slow down the economy? They've known that all along, and they've been lying to us about it, and now that we're contracting they're worried, openly admitting they're worried?

... the White House says we need more taxes and more spending. That's what critical investments in the economy are that promote growth. They're talking about promoting growth. We're shrinking! ... There's nothing that they are doing that promotes growth. And we know this. And, by the way, I continue to say it's on purpose.

Read more: http://newsbusters.org/blogs/tom-blumer/2013/01/30/ap-ramps-excuse-making-gdp-growth-comes-negative#ixzz2JbGNflPl

red states rule

01-31-2013, 04:46 AM

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100419252

(http://www.cnbc.com/id/100419252)

http://www.rushimg.com/cimages//media/images/obamagraveuseconomy11/1109242-1-eng-GB/ObamaGraveUSEconomy.jpg

taft2012

01-31-2013, 06:12 AM

It's going to be interesting when the big crash comes. People don't seem to worry because we've survived depressions before, but the difference this time will be:

*We never went into a depression with such a staggering debt. In the past our finances were balanced.
*We never went into a depression with such a staggering amount of entitlement payments due
*In addition to the national debt, the average personal/family debt of Americans is staggering as well.

When we fall this time, we might not get back up.

fj1200

01-31-2013, 07:01 AM

Will never happen.

I refer you to 2010.

LadyGunSlinger

01-31-2013, 11:22 AM

Tyr-Ziu Saxnot

01-31-2013, 11:27 AM

LadyGunSlinger

01-31-2013, 11:41 AM

-Bravo!--:beer:---:clap::clap:

Just about as good of an analysis of the current state of things as I have read anywhere!
And with truth put forth as it should be. A very refreshing approach and most welcomed by we that value honesty , integrity and those that value honor. -Tyr

Thank you Tyr. I know my debate style offends some people but it's who I am. I love your posts and enjoying reading your thoughts here.

Robert A Whit

01-31-2013, 12:16 PM

Robert A Whit

01-31-2013, 12:29 PM

What I find amazing and frightening is that Economists were actually surprised by the drop?! Really?? The Fed prints money like a drunken whore at a Casino- We are over 16.4 Trillion in debt with no curb to spending in sight-- massive deficits under this boy King... We have a worthless fiat- which has been manipulated in to falling.. sustained REAL unemployment over 14% for several years-- the highest usage of the food stamp program in the history of our nation, falling wages.. and economists are fucking surprised at an 0.1% drop in the fourth quarter??? Who the hell are these people and why are they called Economists? More like brain-dead dummies.

I warned by 2006 that the Fed reserve was printing money like it was confetti. Does this mean Bernanke saw the train wreck ahead of time? I have long studied various economists. If one keeps a long term track of say the top 20 economists, they are surprising in things they agree on vs non agreement. Krugman has his own view. A Milton Friedman quite another. I don't particularly put a hell of a lot of stock in what economists predict. I think they are well intentioned but what they are trying to do is predict the future. Some believe in what I will call, the Friedman economist model and others believe in the Keynes model. Both have some common elements but trying to figure out a complex society and what it ends up doing is so tricky that I have yet to see any economist get it just right.

Democrats will claim this drop is minor and they will claim adjusted numbers will end up showing growth. I don't know.

When part of the nation pays no attention to economics, can hardly spell the word, how can we predict what they do? Some half ass follow this and a few follow it daily.

Democrats were spreading the word that the Xmas season would be much better than the year before. It was NOT better. It turned out worse.

If the public won't spend on Xmas, what will they spend on?

gabosaurus

01-31-2013, 02:38 PM

The GDP dropped by 0.1 percent, due primarily do to the effects of Hurricane Sandy on the Northeast states.

A sign of coming recession, to be sure. :rolleyes:

Trigg

01-31-2013, 02:51 PM

The GDP dropped by 0.1 percent, due primarily do to the effects of Hurricane Sandy on the Northeast states.

A sign of coming recession, to be sure. :rolleyes:

Every story I've read actually has the Sandy Hurricane helping the GDP because they had to replace the things they lost.

gabosaurus

01-31-2013, 02:56 PM

Every story I've read actually has the Sandy Hurricane helping the GDP because they had to replace the things they lost.

The drop comes from lost business and wages caused by the storm. The Northeast states are a center of productivity, which was greatly affected. You have to examine all that was lost by shutting down the Stock Exchange and numerous other NYC businesses for several days.
If your husband was a financial adviser who worried nonstop about these things nonstop for eons, you would know this. :p

fj1200

01-31-2013, 04:14 PM

I warned by 2006 that the Fed reserve was printing money like it was confetti.

What measure did you use to make your proclamation?

red states rule

01-31-2013, 04:45 PM

I refer you to 2010.

and what did the R's do after that huge win? They caved on every damn issue to Obama. They worried about what the liberal media was saying about them. and they lost an election that should have been a cake walk

red states rule

01-31-2013, 04:46 PM

The GDP dropped by 0.1 percent, due primarily do to the effects of Hurricane Sandy on the Northeast states.

A sign of coming recession, to be sure. :rolleyes:

Eh Gabby- Dems are blaming Bush

Get with the talking points -OK?

fj1200

01-31-2013, 05:33 PM

and what did the R's do after that huge win? They caved on every damn issue to Obama. They worried about what the liberal media was saying about them. and they lost an election that should have been a cake walk

The point was the win... in the House anyway. Now if they could keep from nominating idiots for the Senate they might be able to get control.

red states rule

01-31-2013, 05:37 PM

The point was the win... in the House anyway. Now if they could keep from nominating idiots for the Senate they might be able to get control.

and tell m,e what did R's do with the win? The pissed all political advantages away

R's will NOT take control if they keep rolling over for Obama, and allowing the liberal media to force them to "compromise"

fj1200

01-31-2013, 05:49 PM

and tell m,e what did R's do with the win? The pissed all political advantages away

R's will NOT take control if they keep rolling over for Obama, and allowing the liberal media to force them to "compromise"

What did you expect them to be able to do with 1/2 of 1/3 of Government?

red states rule

01-31-2013, 05:52 PM

What did you expect them to be able to do with 1/2 of 1/3 of Government?

So I guess demanding they stand firm on their core principals is asking way to much of only 1/3 of the government. With that kind of reasoning R's will lose the House and become irrelevant for Obama's last two years

bingster

01-31-2013, 06:36 PM

This is just what happens when you cut spending. What did you expect?

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-31/r-word-for-u-s-economy-in-2013-is-rebound-not-recession.html

bingster

01-31-2013, 06:44 PM

So I guess demanding they stand firm on their core principals is asking way to much of only 1/3 of the government. With that kind of reasoning R's will lose the House and become irrelevant for Obama's last two years

I hope your party stays firm. We need to win some elections in 2014, and at this rate, we will have a walk in the park in 2016.

Stay firm Republicans, your polls aren't at 0% yet.

bingster

01-31-2013, 06:47 PM

The point was the win... in the House anyway. Now if they could keep from nominating idiots for the Senate they might be able to get control.

They didn't win anything in 2012. 1.5 million more voters voted for Democratic house members than Republican house members. If it wasn't for gerymandering, the house would be close to a tie. We'll work on that in 2014, 2016, 2018 and finish the job in 2020.http://rslc.com/_blog/RedMap/post/REDMAP_2012_Summary_Report/

jimnyc

01-31-2013, 06:53 PM

This is just what happens when you cut spending. What did you expect?

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-31/r-word-for-u-s-economy-in-2013-is-rebound-not-recession.html

I guess the OVER $6 trillion that Obama has spent - as much as almost every president EVER combined - wasn't enough? If spending more than any president in history hasn't done a damn thing, why do you think spending even more will somehow help?

bingster

01-31-2013, 07:01 PM

I guess the OVER $6 trillion that Obama has spent - as much as almost every president EVER combined - wasn't enough? If spending more than any president in history hasn't done a damn thing, why do you think spending even more will somehow help?

The proof is in the pudding. Spending went down, so the economy contracted. Our weak economy will dip every time we cut spending until it strengthens.

You do know, our debt was at 9 trillion before Obama took over don't you? Bush had a deficit surplus.

Of course if we cut taxes, that isn't the same thing as spending and certainly wouldn't hurt the deficit. This ignoring math and religious fervor for Voodoo Economics drives me nuts.

jimnyc

01-31-2013, 08:37 PM

The proof is in the pudding. Spending went down, so the economy contracted. Our weak economy will dip every time we cut spending until it strengthens.

You do know, our debt was at 9 trillion before Obama took over don't you? Bush had a deficit surplus.

Of course if we cut taxes, that isn't the same thing as spending and certainly wouldn't hurt the deficit. This ignoring math and religious fervor for Voodoo Economics drives me nuts.

Yes, and how long did it take in total to get to $9 trillion? Bush was almost as bad, spending like $4trillion over 8 years. Then Obama spends $6 trillion, in his first term alone. And what did we get for that spending?

http://i.imgur.com/KSfn5.jpg

jimnyc

01-31-2013, 08:38 PM

National debt by year, showing Bush and then Obama:

<tbody>
Date
Dollar Amount

09/30/2012
16,066,241,407,385.89

09/30/2011
14,790,340,328,557.15

09/30/2010
13,561,623,030,891.79

09/30/2009
11,909,829,003,511.75

09/30/2008
10,024,724,896,912.49

09/30/2007
9,007,653,372,262.48

09/30/2006
8,506,973,899,215.23

09/30/2005
7,932,709,661,723.50

09/30/2004
7,379,052,696,330.32

09/30/2003
6,783,231,062,743.62

09/30/2002
6,228,235,965,597.16

09/30/2001
5,807,463,412,200.06

09/30/2000
5,674,178,209,886.86

</tbody>

jimnyc

01-31-2013, 08:39 PM

bingster

01-31-2013, 09:08 PM

And the 50 years leading up to that:

<tbody>
Date
Dollar Amount

09/30/1999
5,656,270,901,615.43

09/30/1998
5,526,193,008,897.62

09/30/1997
5,413,146,011,397.34

09/30/1996
5,224,810,939,135.73

09/29/1995
4,973,982,900,709.39

09/30/1994
4,692,749,910,013.32

09/30/1993
4,411,488,883,139.38

09/30/1992
4,064,620,655,521.66

09/30/1991
3,665,303,351,697.03

09/28/1990
3,233,313,451,777.25

09/29/1989
2,857,430,960,187.32

09/30/1988
2,602,337,712,041.16

09/30/1987
2,350,276,890,953.00

09/30/1986
2,125,302,616,658.42

09/30/1985
* 1,823,103,000,000.00

09/30/1984
* 1,572,266,000,000.00

09/30/1983
* 1,377,210,000,000.00

09/30/1982
* 1,142,034,000,000.00

09/30/1981
* 997,855,000,000.00

09/30/1980
* 907,701,000,000.00

09/30/1979
* 826,519,000,000.00

09/30/1978
* 771,544,000,000.00

09/30/1977
* 698,840,000,000.00

06/30/1976
* 620,433,000,000.00

06/30/1975
* 533,189,000,000.00

06/30/1974
475,059,815,731.55

06/30/1973
458,141,605,312.09

06/30/1972
427,260,460,940.50

06/30/1971
398,129,744,455.54

06/30/1970
370,918,706,949.93

06/30/1969
353,720,253,841.41

06/30/1968
347,578,406,425.88

06/30/1967
326,220,937,794.54

06/30/1966
319,907,087,795.48

06/30/1965
317,273,898,983.64

06/30/1964
311,712,899,257.30

06/30/1963
305,859,632,996.41

06/30/1962
298,200,822,720.87

06/30/1961
288,970,938,610.05

06/30/1960
286,330,760,848.37

06/30/1959
284,705,907,078.22

06/30/1958
276,343,217,745.81

06/30/1957
270,527,171,896.43

06/30/1956
272,750,813,649.32

06/30/1955
274,374,222,802.62

06/30/1954
271,259,599,108.46

06/30/1953
266,071,061,638.57

06/30/1952
259,105,178,785.43

06/29/1951
255,221,976,814.93

06/30/1950
257,357,352,351.04

</tbody>

http://www.treasurydirect.gov/govt/reports/pd/histdebt/histdebt.htm

That's all well and good, I get it. But what the heck are you blaming him for?
Not ending the Iraq war on day one?
Not ending Afganistan war on day one?
Not ending Medicare part D on day one?
Not ending Bush Tax Cuts on day one?

Other than these things, you can blame him for a stimulus bill and the following:

Continuing unemployment and adding payroll tax cuts
Not giving another huge tax cut to the rich that would even further increase the deficit.

The only answer your party has is more tax cuts while blaming Obama for the deficit. If there is something wrong with what Obama did was either including tax cuts in his stimulus in the first place or making the stimulus so small.

Most of the deficit is from two things:
1. The worse economy since the Great Depression that he did not crash.-This is a huge reason our defit is so bad.
2. Continuing Bush policies.
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jimnyc

01-31-2013, 09:19 PM

That's all well and good, I get it. But what the heck are you blaming him for?
Not ending the Iraq war on day one?
Not ending Afganistan war on day one?
Not ending Medicare part D on day one?
Not ending Bush Tax Cuts on day one?

Other than these things, you can blame him for a stimulus bill and the following:

Continuing unemployment and adding payroll tax cuts
Not giving another huge tax cut to the rich that would even further increase the deficit.

The only answer your party has is more tax cuts while blaming Obama for the deficit. If there is something wrong with what Obama did was either including tax cuts in his stimulus in the first place or making the stimulus so small.

Most of the deficit is from two things:
1. The worse economy since the Great Depression that he did not crash.-This is a huge reason our defit is so bad.
2. Continuing Bush policies.

So the meteoric rise, which didn't take place until Obama took office, was from Bush policy? Nothing to do with his own failed policies, bailouts & out of control spending? LOL Be realistic at least and not a party hack. While Bush sure as hell spent a lot of money, and placed us in a few pickles, Obama and company have done MORE than their share to screw up our economy and put us MUCH further in debt.

(CNSNews.com) - President Barack Obama has been increasing the national debt during his presidency by an average of $4.24 billion per day ($4,240,506,004.34) putting him on a pace to increase the national debt by $6.2 trillion ($6,195,379,272,340.74) by the end of his term on Jan. 20, 2013, according to the debt figures published by the U.S. Treasury.

That $6.2 trillion is more debt than was accumulated by all U.S. presidents from George Washington through Bill Clinton combined.

In fact, the U.S. national debt did not eclipse the $6.195 trillion level—the amount Obama is on pace to increase it in one term—until August 19, 2002, during President George W. Bush’s second year of office.

The national debt was $10.6 trillion ($10,626,877,048,913.08) on Jan. 20, 2009, the day Obama was inaugurated. As of the close of business on Jan. 11, 2012, it was $15.2 trillion ($15,236,307,075,631.58.) In Obama’s first 1,087 days in office, the debt increased $4.6 trillion ($4,609,430,026,718.50)—or an increase of $4.24 billion ($4,240,506,004.34) per day.

At that daily rate, the debt would increase a total of $6.2 trillion ($6,195,379,272,340.74) over the entire 1,461 days of Obama’s four year term.

At the close of business Aug. 19, 2002, the total national debt was $6.195 trillion.

http://cnsnews.com/news/article/obama-pace-borrow-62t-one-term-more-all-presidents-washington-through-clinton-combined

Robert A Whit

01-31-2013, 09:21 PM

Robert A Whit

01-31-2013, 09:39 PM

The GDP dropped by 0.1 percent, due primarily do to the effects of Hurricane Sandy on the Northeast states.

A sign of coming recession, to be sure. :rolleyes:

http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/2012/1101/Economic-toll-of-Sandy-Damage-second-only-to-Katrina

One firm that specializes in storm damage forecasting, EQECAT, raised its Sandy estimate to total economic damage of $30 billion to $50 billion, with about one-third of that being insured losses claimed by homeowners and businesses. For reference, $50 billion is about 0.3 percent of one year's gross domestic product (GDP) for the US.<o:p></o:p>
IN PICTURES: Sandy: Chronicle of an unrelenting storm (http://www.debatepolicy.com/Photo-Galleries/In-Pictures/Sandy-Chronicle-of-an-unrelenting-storm?nav=581207-csm_article-promoLink)<o:p></o:p>
If accurate, that estimate would put Sandy behind hurricane Katrina (http://www.debatepolicy.com/tags/topic/Hurricane+Katrina) in 2005, but ahead of other major US (http://www.debatepolicy.com/tags/topic/United+States) hurricanes.<o:p></o:p>
The investment firm Morgan Stanley (http://www.debatepolicy.com/tags/topic/Morgan+Stanley) cites data from the National Climatic Data Center (http://www.debatepolicy.com/tags/topic/National+Climatic+Data+Center), which puts the economic damage of Katrina at $146 billion, when measured in today's dollars. Pending a final tally from Sandy, the second-ranking hurricane since 1980 is Andrew (http://www.debatepolicy.com/tags/topic/Hurricane+Andrew), which in 1992 did damage of $44 billion in today's dollars.<o:p></o:p>
Wherever Sandy ends up, it will be high on the list of major storms. Yet it's tricky for economists to predict how Sandy will affect US economic growth.<o:p></o:p>
The damage is large. The impact on families and businesses in the hardest-hit areas is large. But by itself, that doesn't mean Sandy will automatically put a big dent in GDP for the current quarter. To some extent, the losses from the storm are offset by a flood of a different kind – the inflows of disaster aid, insurance claims, and "catch-up" spending by consumers who had to delay purchases due to the storm.

Will she actually read all of this?
<o:p></o:p>

Kathianne

01-31-2013, 09:41 PM

That is one opinion.

However what you seem to mean is that Sandy dropped the economy by more than 3 points. We can test that by looking closely at Katrina and see if that storm slashed GDP by 3 or more percent.

But if you all recall, it was more than Katrina since at least one more hurricane hit TX shortly after Katrina.

I really don't agree with Gabby's analysis, via supposedly by her husband. OTOH, don't think one can use LA, MS, AL and compare to NY, NJ for effects on economy. Really, commonsense.

Robert A Whit

01-31-2013, 09:44 PM

The drop comes from lost business and wages caused by the storm. The Northeast states are a center of productivity, which was greatly affected. You have to examine all that was lost by shutting down the Stock Exchange and numerous other NYC businesses for several days.
If your husband was a financial adviser who worried nonstop about these things nonstop for eons, you would know this. :p

Trying to help this one is very trying.

So let's give it one more shot.

http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/2012/1101/Economic-toll-of-Sandy-Damage-second-only-to-Katrina

One firm that specializes in storm damage forecasting, EQECAT, raised its Sandy estimate to total economic damage of $30 billion to $50 billion, with about one-third of that being insured losses claimed by homeowners and businesses. For reference, $50 billion is about 0.3 percent of one year's gross domestic product (GDP) for the US.<o:p></o:p>
IN PICTURES: Sandy: Chronicle of an unrelenting storm (http://www.debatepolicy.com/Photo-Galleries/In-Pictures/Sandy-Chronicle-of-an-unrelenting-storm?nav=581207-csm_article-promoLink)<o:p></o:p>
If accurate, that estimate would put Sandy behind hurricane Katrina (http://www.debatepolicy.com/tags/topic/Hurricane+Katrina) in 2005, but ahead of other major US (http://www.debatepolicy.com/tags/topic/United+States) hurricanes.<o:p></o:p>
The investment firm Morgan Stanley (http://www.debatepolicy.com/tags/topic/Morgan+Stanley) cites data from the National Climatic Data Center (http://www.debatepolicy.com/tags/topic/National+Climatic+Data+Center), which puts the economic damage of Katrina at $146 billion, when measured in today's dollars. Pending a final tally from Sandy, the second-ranking hurricane since 1980 is Andrew (http://www.debatepolicy.com/tags/topic/Hurricane+Andrew), which in 1992 did damage of $44 billion in today's dollars.<o:p></o:p>
Wherever Sandy ends up, it will be high on the list of major storms. Yet it's tricky for economists to predict how Sandy will affect US economic growth.<o:p></o:p>
The damage is large. The impact on families and businesses in the hardest-hit areas is large. But by itself, that doesn't mean Sandy will automatically put a big dent in GDP for the current quarter. To some extent, the losses from the storm are offset by a flood of a different kind – the inflows of disaster aid, insurance claims, and "catch-up" spending by consumers who had to delay purchases due to the storm.<o:p></o:p>
<o:p></o:p>

Kathianne

01-31-2013, 09:50 PM

Trying to help this one is very trying.

So let's give it one more shot.

http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/2012/1101/Economic-toll-of-Sandy-Damage-second-only-to-Katrina

One firm that specializes in storm damage forecasting, EQECAT, raised its Sandy estimate to total economic damage of $30 billion to $50 billion, with about one-third of that being insured losses claimed by homeowners and businesses. For reference, $50 billion is about 0.3 percent of one year's gross domestic product (GDP) for the US.<o>:p></o>:p>
IN PICTURES: Sandy: Chronicle of an unrelenting storm (http://www.debatepolicy.com/Photo-Galleries/In-Pictures/Sandy-Chronicle-of-an-unrelenting-storm?nav=581207-csm_article-promoLink)<o>:p></o>:p>
If accurate, that estimate would put Sandy behind hurricane Katrina (http://www.debatepolicy.com/tags/topic/Hurricane+Katrina) in 2005, but ahead of other major US (http://www.debatepolicy.com/tags/topic/United+States) hurricanes.<o>:p></o>:p>
The investment firm Morgan Stanley (http://www.debatepolicy.com/tags/topic/Morgan+Stanley) cites data from the National Climatic Data Center (http://www.debatepolicy.com/tags/topic/National+Climatic+Data+Center), which puts the economic damage of Katrina at $146 billion, when measured in today's dollars. Pending a final tally from Sandy, the second-ranking hurricane since 1980 is Andrew (http://www.debatepolicy.com/tags/topic/Hurricane+Andrew), which in 1992 did damage of $44 billion in today's dollars.<o>:p></o>:p>
Wherever Sandy ends up, it will be high on the list of major storms. Yet it's tricky for economists to predict how Sandy will affect US economic growth.<o>:p></o>:p>
The damage is large. The impact on families and businesses in the hardest-hit areas is large. But by itself, that doesn't mean Sandy will automatically put a big dent in GDP for the current quarter. To some extent, the losses from the storm are offset by a flood of a different kind – the inflows of disaster aid, insurance claims, and "catch-up" spending by consumers who had to delay purchases due to the storm.<o>:p></o>:p>
<o>:p></o>:p>

Pretty much confirmed my previous post regarding Gabby's concerns. Not so much regarding the comparisons between Katrina and Sandy, they hit very different economic centers. Katrina 'nationwide' hit only the major port of New Orleans and environs. While a local mega catastrophe, not so much on economy. Sandy, moreso, but not to the level Gabby is alleging.

bingster

01-31-2013, 10:28 PM

So the meteoric rise, which didn't take place until Obama took office, was from Bush policy? Nothing to do with his own failed policies, bailouts & out of control spending? LOL Be realistic at least and not a party hack. While Bush sure as hell spent a lot of money, and placed us in a few pickles, Obama and company have done MORE than their share to screw up our economy and put us MUCH further in debt.

http://cnsnews.com/news/article/obama-pace-borrow-62t-one-term-more-all-presidents-washington-through-clinton-combined

You are ignoring the biggest factor of the debt: the economic downturn. Since revenues go down in a down turn, the debt goes up. Yes, this happened just when Obama went into office-maybe you weren't paying attention? You remember, October 2008-Feb 2009 was when the economy went off of the cliff.

LOL yourself! Republicans solution was tax cuts only! Obama mixed additional tax cuts with stimulus. I've already outlined all of the outstanding spending Obama has done and it mostly only adds up to 1 trillion. It's not that he spent so much, it's a revenue problem! Even without arguing tax increases, you only have to take into account the fact that with high unemployment rates, the government takes in less revenue-this causes higher debt.

Even Republicans in the Congress aren't going after Obama's spending. Think about it, they're going after Social Security and Medicare. That isn't Obama's spending! Health care got more expensive without Obama. Obamacare is not only deficit neutral, it lessens the deficit.

Explain what spending you're talking about. Most of the bailouts have been paid back, although tarp and the 1st gm bailout came from Bush.

The debt, like I explained before is downturn, and Bush policies. I'll bet you can't prove 20% of our debt has anything to do with new spending. I don't need to bet, I know it's not new spending.

There are only three things we can do about the current economy: spend more, cut taxes, or wait. Congress won't allow the 1st two, so we'll have to be patient.

fj1200

02-01-2013, 03:09 AM

So I guess demanding they stand firm on their core principals is asking way to much of only 1/3 of the government. With that kind of reasoning R's will lose the House and become irrelevant for Obama's last two years

If you demand that they stand firm, shut down the government, and lose a la the 90's... I prefer not to shoot myself in the foot.

They didn't win anything in 2012. 1.5 million more voters voted for Democratic house members than Republican house members. If it wasn't for gerymandering, the house would be close to a tie. We'll work on that in 2014, 2016, 2018 and finish the job in 2020.http://rslc.com/_blog/RedMap/post/REDMAP_2012_Summary_Report/

Gerrymandering. :rolleyes: I was speaking about 2010 for one and all the Republican governors will disagree.

The proof is in the pudding. Spending went down, so the economy contracted. Our weak economy will dip every time we cut spending until it strengthens.

You do know, our debt was at 9 trillion before Obama took over don't you? Bush had a deficit surplus.

Of course if we cut taxes, that isn't the same thing as spending and certainly wouldn't hurt the deficit. This ignoring math and religious fervor for Voodoo Economics drives me nuts.

Our weak economy? Built on excessive government, doomed to fail.

The ignoring I have argued is on your side, you've so far not take me up. Besides, the BO solution to trillion dollar deficits is an $80 billion dollar tax increase. Whistling past something there aren't you?

red states rule

02-01-2013, 03:11 AM

I hope your party stays firm. We need to win some elections in 2014, and at this rate, we will have a walk in the park in 2016.

Stay firm Republicans, your polls aren't at 0% yet.

Lets see, Dems stay "firm" they are called principled

R's stay "firm" and they are called obstructionists

red states rule

02-01-2013, 03:14 AM

If you demand that they stand firm, shut down the government, and lose a la the 90's... I prefer not to shoot myself in the foot.

Yea, you are now shooting yourself in the head. Let Obama run up the debt and take the nation into bankruptcy. After all we must learn to "compromise" with Obama and show more "civility"

Besides. taxes would still flow into DC and there would be enough money to pay 60% of out bills including interest on the debt. What would be the problem with DC living on what it takes in?

fj1200

02-01-2013, 03:29 AM

You are ignoring the biggest factor of the debt: the economic downturn. Since revenues go down in a down turn, the debt goes up. Yes, this happened just when Obama went into office-maybe you weren't paying attention? You remember, October 2008-Feb 2009 was when the economy went off of the cliff.

LOL yourself! Republicans solution was tax cuts only! Obama mixed additional tax cuts with stimulus. I've already outlined all of the outstanding spending Obama has done and it mostly only adds up to 1 trillion. It's not that he spent so much, it's a revenue problem! Even without arguing tax increases, you only have to take into account the fact that with high unemployment rates, the government takes in less revenue-this causes higher debt.

Even Republicans in the Congress aren't going after Obama's spending. Think about it, they're going after Social Security and Medicare. That isn't Obama's spending! Health care got more expensive without Obama. Obamacare is not only deficit neutral, it lessens the deficit.

Explain what spending you're talking about. Most of the bailouts have been paid back, although tarp and the 1st gm bailout came from Bush.

The debt, like I explained before is downturn, and Bush policies. I'll bet you can't prove 20% of our debt has anything to do with new spending. I don't need to bet, I know it's not new spending.

There are only three things we can do about the current economy: spend more, cut taxes, or wait. Congress won't allow the 1st two, so we'll have to be patient.

Your analysis in a previous post is flawed. Both the surplus projections from Clinton and the Bush tax cut "costs." The laughable part is it tries to ignore anything that happened under Bush that he had no control over; 9/11, 2001 recession, and I'd argue the 2008 downturn. That you would present it at all worries me.

As for BO's tax cuts; temporary tax cuts are useless when it comes to stimulating anything and his cuts weren't really rate cuts anyway, more "cuts" if you take the exact action we like.

fj1200

02-01-2013, 03:31 AM

Yea, you are now shooting yourself in the head. Let Obama run up the debt and take the nation into bankruptcy. After all we must learn to "compromise" with Obama and show more "civility"

Besides. taxes would still flow into DC and there would be enough money to pay 60% of out bills including interest on the debt. What would be the problem with DC living on what it takes in?

The people would quickly turn against them. Fact.

red states rule

02-01-2013, 03:34 AM

The people would quickly turn against them. Fact.

As long as R's allow Obama and the liberal media to define default as not raising the debt ceiling. You know yourself Obama has lied consistently on that point and R's have done nothing to counter it

They are afraid of being tagged "racist" and angry

Fine, go ahead and "compromise" and sell out the people who voted for you. The R's are helping Obama and he knows it

fj1200

02-01-2013, 03:39 AM

The R's are helping Obama and he knows it

If they're helping it's because they have a crappy message.

red states rule

02-01-2013, 03:42 AM

If they're helping it's because they have a crappy message.

The message is "compromise" and you are right it stinks. As I said they need to be more outspoken and take on Obama

Here is a perfect example of the liberal media "reporting" how the lousy GDP number IMPACTS Obama

Economic jitters compete with Obama agenda

Just as President Barack Obama is pushing new initiatives on gun control and immigration, the gloomy old problem of a sluggish economy is elbowing its way back into prominence. Consumer confidence is falling, the economy is contracting and large automatic spending cuts are threatening to hit the Pentagon and other programs, with uncertain consequences.

These troubles arise as Obama's public approval is improving and as he begins to use his sway to promote the key features of his second-term agenda. The White House, the Federal Reserve and independent economists attributed the shrinkage in gross domestic product and the drop in consumer confidence to one-time events and said underlying economic factors were still showing encouraging signs.

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_OBAMA_ECONOMY?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2013-01-31-11-04-25

R's should be out there telling voters we are broke and who cares how it impacts Obama

fj1200

02-01-2013, 03:50 AM

The message is "compromise" and you are right it stinks.

That's not the message to which I was referring. You can't explain higher order issues to a lower order populace; it takes education.

red states rule

02-01-2013, 03:55 AM

That's not the message to which I was referring. You can't explain higher order issues to a lower order populace; it takes education.

What message do you want form the R's? I want them to stand firm. Force Obama's hand. Force the Dems in the Senate to actually put on paper what they want to spend and how much of a deficit that would support. Force Obama to address the entitlements that are bankrupting the nation

But all I hear form those who claim to be conservatives is that we need to work with Obama, compromise, not to ask for everything at once, and allow the debt and spending to continue to increase.

Screw that plan! That is why we are in the world of crap we are in right now

fj1200

02-01-2013, 04:06 AM

What message do you want form the R's?

... it takes education.

You can't force anything from a losing hand.

red states rule

02-01-2013, 04:09 AM

You can't force anything from a losing hand.

Thank you FJ. What a platform to run on. We are are usless right now but vote for us and give us the Senate and WH and then we can show what we can do

With an attiutde like that you put a huge grin on the faces of Bing and Gabby

fj1200

02-01-2013, 04:11 AM

Thank you FJ. What a platform to run on. We are are usless right now but vote for us and give us the Senate and WH and then we can show what we can do

With an attiutde like that you put a huge grin on the faces of Bing and Gabby

Defeatist you are. Besides we're not talking about platform here, we're talking politics and what the Republicans CAN do. They CAN do very little and I would submit to you that if they took your advice they would surely lose.

red states rule

02-01-2013, 04:16 AM

Defeatist you are. Besides we're not talking about platform here, we're talking politics and what the Republicans CAN do. They CAN do very little and I would submit to you that if they took your advice they would surely lose.

So in your world R's have the House and do nothing - so why should voters give them the Senate and the WH

Oh wait, we can't talk about a platform right now

Wow, Chris Matthews is smiling right now

fj1200

02-01-2013, 04:22 AM

So in oyur world R's have the House and do nothing - so why should voters give them the Senate and the WH

Oh wait, we can't talk about a platform right now

Wow, Chris Matthews is smiling right now

:facepalm99: How about we try and keep it on topic. If you would like to switch from what the Republicans platform should be and how they need to educate the people so that they can be in a position to force changes then fine. But so far it's been about the reality of politics. I would think you could see the difference.

IBfjcondescendingrant

red states rule

02-01-2013, 04:27 AM

:facepalm99: How about we try and keep it on topic. If you would like to switch from what the Republicans platform should be and how they need to educate the people so that they can be in a position to force changes then fine. But so far it's been about the reality of politics. I would think you could see the difference.

IBfjcondescendingrant

Oh excuse me for asking you for specific things R's should do right now. I was way out on line for asking such an outrageous question

Well we went form a massive win in 2010 to an embarrassing loss in 2012. Obama got 4 million fewer votes then he did in 2008 and we still lost

So you say we continue with the same game plan and offering nothing new

With that you should join Joe Scarborough on Morning Joe as another "conservative" that is on the payroll of DNCTV

fj1200

02-01-2013, 04:32 AM

Oh excuse me for asking you for specific things R's should do right now. I was way out on line for asking such an outrageous question

Well we went form a massive win in 2010 to an embarrassing loss in 2012. Obama got 4 million fewer votes then he did in 2008 and we still lost

So you say we continue with the same game plan and offering nothing new

I already answered your question about three times; Educate. Now ask yourself why they lost.

With that you should join Joe Scarborough on Morning Joe as another "conservative" that is on the payroll of DNCTV

Always with your stupid little kicker at the end huh?

red states rule

02-01-2013, 04:38 AM

I already answered your question about three times; Educate. Now ask yourself why they lost.

Always with your stupid little kicker at the end huh?

Educate is a rather broad arena. I said R's need to combat Obama when he lies about what default means, how we still take in revenue to pay 60% of the bills, and combat the Senate for not doing their Constitutional duties. Yet you make the excuse how R's can do very little

So which is it

Oh and with your game plan you would be hired as a "conservative" at DNCTV and perhaps get a show between Rev Al and Ed Schultz

fj1200

02-01-2013, 04:48 AM

Educate is a rather broad arena. I said R's need to combat Obama when he lies about what default means, how we still take in revenue to pay 60% of the bills, and combat the Senate for not doing their Constitutional duties. Yet you make the excuse how R's can do very little

So which is it

It's not an excuse that they can do very little, it's reality. Educate is a broad arena and it's also not a quick one.

Oh and with your game plan you would be hired as a "conservative" at DNCTV and perhaps get a show between Rev Al and Ed Schultz

Stupid comments are stupid... and not unexpected.

red states rule

02-01-2013, 04:52 AM

It's not an excuse that they can do very little, it's reality. Educate is a broad arena and it's also not a quick one.

Stupid comments are stupid... and not unexpected.

R's are doing an excellent job of educating when it comes to not have a spine, forgetting about the people who voted them into office, blowing an election taht should be won with ease, making budget "cuts" that increase spending and adds to the debt; and showing the voters what RINOS are really like

I ask you for specifics and still you offer none. I have noticed when pressed for specifics you get rather - hostile - FJ. Perhaps you do not like having to actually talk to people but are more comfortable talking down to people

fj1200

02-01-2013, 05:01 AM

R's are doing an excellent job of educating when it comes to not have a spine, forgetting about the people who voted them into office, blowing an election taht should be won with ease, making budget "cuts" that increase spending and adds to the debt; and showing the voters what RINOS are really like

Did you ask yourself why they lost yet? Going with the stance that we should just cut spending 40% is a non-starter and a loser.

I ask you for specifics and still you offer none. I have noticed when pressed for specifics you get rather - hostile - FJ. Perhaps you do not like having to actually talk to people but are more comfortable talking down to people

Hostile? Coming from you that's quite comical. And I don't talk down to people, I talk down to you. Besides, your too late.

IBfjcondescendingrant

;)

I've got plenty of specifics, they're just in other threads and I'm waiting for Bingster to respond.

red states rule

02-01-2013, 05:06 AM

Did you ask yourself why they lost yet? Going with the stance that we should just cut spending 40% is a non-starter and a loser.

Hostile? Coming from you that's quite comical. And I don't talk down to people, I talk down to you. Besides, your too late.

;)

I've got plenty of specifics, they're just in other threads and I'm waiting for Bingster to respond.

What cuts FJ? They were slowing the rate of growth. Those are not cuts

Yes you do talk down to people and your inability to talk in specifics is why the party got his ass kicked. So called conservatives like you are Obama's best friend. It is sad to see libs make excuses for Obama but is worse seeing people like you do the same for the ineffective leadership the R's have in DC

I guess like Gabby you are to busy to repeat those "specifics" you claim to have posted

Since nobody wants to actually make the needed cuts and fess up to the voters the harsh medicine that must be taken - we are screwed

fj1200

02-01-2013, 08:55 AM

What cuts FJ? They were slowing the rate of growth. Those are not cuts

Keep your arguments straight please. A 40% (100% - 60% = 40%) hack is not a slowing of the rate of growth.

Besides. taxes would still flow into DC and there would be enough money to pay 60% of out bills including interest on the debt. What would be the problem with DC living on what it takes in?

But since you bring it up I have no idea why we're still using a baseline budget. That would be one of those specifics that requires education.

Yes you do talk down to people and your inability to talk in specifics is why the party got his ass kicked. So called conservatives like you are Obama's best friend. It is sad to see libs make excuses for Obama but is worse seeing people like you do the same for the ineffective leadership the R's have in DC

No, I told you to whom I speak down and I'll talk you under the table as far as specifics go but last I checked I wasn't running for office so to blame me is just you hunting for another scapegoat. So, have you asked yourself why they lost yet?

I guess like Gabby you are to busy to repeat those "specifics" you claim to have posted

If you spent more time reading than posting you might be able to find those specifics. I also didn't think I'd have to explain to you those conservative fundamentals that require educating the mass public; my mistake.

Since nobody wants to actually make the needed cuts and fess up to the voters the harsh medicine that must be taken - we are screwed

We are screwed because so far no one has taken up the educate the populace mantra yet. An ignorant population will resist an argument it doesn't understand if they're even paying attention.

bingster

02-01-2013, 12:07 PM

jimnyc

02-01-2013, 12:17 PM

Yes, the meteoric rise in debt has everything to do with the meteoric drop in our economy. I laid out the details of what he spent. Show me where I'm wrong.

Also, you failed to answer the biggest question....What would you have done instead? Cut more taxes??? Why can't conservatives understand a balance sheet? Cutting taxes is not free. It doesn't raise the revenue to pay for them. In fact, on the top 10%, cutting taxes is the least stimulative measure. It's the 90% who create real demand.

A balance sheet, and an accusation towards "conservatives"? LOL Please post for me the finalized budgets for the Democrats since Obama has been in office, which will make things a little more clear for me. I'm curious how they did...

bingster

02-01-2013, 12:17 PM

If you demand that they stand firm, shut down the government, and lose a la the 90's... I prefer not to shoot myself in the foot.

Gerrymandering. :rolleyes: I was speaking about 2010 for one and all the Republican governors will disagree.

Our weak economy? Built on excessive government, doomed to fail.

The ignoring I have argued is on your side, you've so far not take me up. Besides, the BO solution to trillion dollar deficits is an $80 billion dollar tax increase. Whistling past something there aren't you?

Yea, you got me big time on 2010. That screwed us until 2020.

You're right about the too little on the solution. This congress won't pony up to do the right thing. In the house, the democrats could get out of the way and the Republicans couldn't pass gas by themselves. They're absolutely disfunctional and they're shooting themselves in the foot no matter what they do.

I want to intelligently cut military spending. We need to stop thinking we need to fight two ground wars at a time and embrace the help of the UN when necessary. We don't need to spend ten times more than any of the European countries when, if we aren't stupid, (IRAQ) they'll be happy to help.

We could close corporate welfare. Although our corporate tax rate is the 2nd largest in the world, according to a forbes report of 500 top companies, the real average corporate tax rate is half of the statutory rate. That rate, about 16% is about the third lowest tax rate in the world. We can lower rates on corporations and close some of the loopholes and still pull down more revenue.

Just two ideas. It won't happen with this Congress.

fj1200

02-01-2013, 12:20 PM

Yes, the meteoric rise in debt has everything to do with the meteoric drop in our economy. I laid out the details of what he spent. Show me where I'm wrong.

Also, you failed to answer the biggest question....What would you have done instead? Cut more taxes??? Why can't conservatives understand a balance sheet? Cutting taxes is not free. It doesn't raise the revenue to pay for them. In fact, on the top 10%, cutting taxes is the least stimulative measure. It's the 90% who create real demand.

Demand side is wrong and the measures that have been taken, I do include temporary tax cuts in that, have done precious little. The demand takes care of itself once someone has a job and security, in fact the unemployment rate correlates to tax revenues far more than tax rates, i.e. not at all.

bingster

02-01-2013, 12:20 PM

A balance sheet, and an accusation towards "conservatives"? LOL Please post for me the finalized budgets for the Democrats since Obama has been in office, which will make things a little more clear for me. I'm curious how they did...

Show me a workable House and I'll show you a budget. They've been talking about one, I guess it's on the white house website, but it's purely academic. This Congress will not pass a budget.

bingster

02-01-2013, 12:24 PM

Demand side is wrong and the measures that have been taken, I do include temporary tax cuts in that, have done precious little. The demand takes care of itself once someone has a job and security, in fact the unemployment rate correlates to tax revenues far more than tax rates, i.e. not at all.

It's a circular argument, though. People don't hire because of a tax cut. This conservative changing of the name of rich people to "job creators" is silly. They will hire when demand goes up and not before. Look at the stock market. Rich people are doing fine. I saw a study which showed that our level of billionaires is back up to before the recession.

jimnyc

02-01-2013, 12:25 PM

Show me a workable House and I'll show you a budget. They've been talking about one, I guess it's on the white house website, but it's purely academic. This Congress will not pass a budget.

Or the Democrats are incapable of compromise, refuse to pass a budget, and spend, spend, spend, spend anyway.

fj1200

02-01-2013, 12:28 PM

Yea, you got me big time on 2010. That screwed us until 2020.

You're right about the too little on the solution. This congress won't pony up to do the right thing. In the house, the democrats could get out of the way and the Republicans couldn't pass gas by themselves. They're absolutely disfunctional and they're shooting themselves in the foot no matter what they do.

IIRC the Republicans have been passing bills all by themselves for quite some time, it's just that they will go nowhere with the Senate not to mention POTUS. Shooting themselves in the foot huh? The Republicans completely salvaged Bill Clinton's reputation singlehandedly by doing what they should have been doing all along; pro-growth policies like a cap gain tax cut and reining in spending growth. Throw in a few good luck issues like a peace dividend and an internet boom/stock bubble and Clinton looks like a genius simply for being in the right place at the right time.

I want to intelligently cut military spending. We need to stop thinking we need to fight two ground wars at a time and embrace the help of the UN when necessary. We don't need to spend ten times more than any of the European countries when, if we aren't stupid, (IRAQ) they'll be happy to help.

OK, but the wars are merely a drop in the bucket.

We could close corporate welfare. Although our corporate tax rate is the 2nd largest in the world, according to a forbes report of 500 top companies, the real average corporate tax rate is half of the statutory rate. That rate, about 16% is about the third lowest tax rate in the world. We can lower rates on corporations and close some of the loopholes and still pull down more revenue.

Just two ideas. It won't happen with this Congress.

Personally I think we should eliminate the corporate tax code but that's me. Yes, we have the second highest rate and the fact that the effective rate gets pushed down speaks to the ridiculous compliance costs that must be spent along with the lobbying that needs to be done to get this years "gift" from your local Congressman.

I am glad that you recognize the basics of tax reform though.

fj1200

02-01-2013, 12:32 PM

It's a circular argument, though. People don't hire because of a tax cut. This conservative changing of the name of rich people to "job creators" is silly. They will hire when demand goes up and not before. Look at the stock market. Rich people are doing fine. I saw a study which showed that our level of billionaires is back up to before the recession.

Not really, your view is static. People will hire when they see an investment opportunity. A VC investor will fund a new project when those who are going to buy the product have no clue what that product is. That's practically the whole basis for Apple, you don't know you need/want it until someone shows it to you.

The problem most fail to see IMO is that our growth is built at the margins and it's at those margins that new jobs and wealth are created. People also fail to see that we have a tax policy that completely disincentivizes job growth for those at the bottom by instituting huge costs that are burdened on them before it's burdened on higher earners.

bingster

02-01-2013, 12:48 PM

IIRC the Republicans have been passing bills all by themselves for quite some time, it's just that they will go nowhere with the Senate not to mention POTUS. Shooting themselves in the foot huh? The Republicans completely salvaged Bill Clinton's reputation singlehandedly by doing what they should have been doing all along; pro-growth policies like a cap gain tax cut and reining in spending growth. Throw in a few good luck issues like a peace dividend and an internet boom/stock bubble and Clinton looks like a genius simply for being in the right place at the right time.

OK, but the wars are merely a drop in the bucket.

Personally I think we should eliminate the corporate tax code but that's me. Yes, we have the second highest rate and the fact that the effective rate gets pushed down speaks to the ridiculous compliance costs that must be spent along with the lobbying that needs to be done to get this years "gift" from your local Congressman.

I am glad that you recognize the basics of tax reform though.

Thanks for the history lesson, but I was talking about the current Congress. Really, though, good history.

bingster

02-01-2013, 12:55 PM

Or the Democrats are incapable of compromise, refuse to pass a budget, and spend, spend, spend, spend anyway.

Like I said in other posts. Democrats are plenty able to compromise. The far right Republicans can't even agree with the medium right Republicans-they couldn't agree with a budget on their own.

Why is it that the Republican definition of Democratic compromise is always agreeing completely with Republicans? Most of the Republicans didn't vote for the fiscal cliff because they wouldn't allow any tax rates to go up at all. In fact, they chickened out on their own proposal of cutting all rates up to a million. It's not the Democrats that aren't willing to compromise.

I'll admit, though, your party is in a tough spot. We don't have to compromise anymore because the American public is at a point that your party will get blamed no matter what happens from now on. Your obstructionist antics of the 1st term, and your antics of the same so far has put the Democratic party in an almost can't lose position.

P.S.
You still refuse to my spending question: what spending? Don't just point out the debt, point out the extraordinary spending you keep insisting on.

fj1200

02-01-2013, 01:42 PM

Thanks for the history lesson, but I was talking about the current Congress. Really, though, good history.

Huh? So was I. The House can and has passed bills that will go nowhere so your point is moot. The history lesson was for a different purpose.

EDIT:

And here I am hoping you'll actually defend your tax assertions and that silly graph.

bingster

02-01-2013, 02:30 PM

Huh? So was I. The House can and has passed bills that will go nowhere so your point is moot. The history lesson was for a different purpose.

EDIT:

And here I am hoping you'll actually defend your tax assertions and that silly graph.

There's nothing wrong with the graph. As I was arguing with Jimmy, Obama's increase in spending has very little to do with the explosion in debt. The downturn, itself, creates much of the debt due to loss of revenue.

Other than 1-2 trillion in additional spending (stimulus, etc), what extra spending is causing this 6 trillion of debt?

And the big question is what is the right answer if Obama is doing the wrong thing. The reason for this entire thread is mostly the cut in military spending (6.6%) but Republicans are demanding many more cuts. How do you boost the economy and not blow up the deficit? Republicans certainly don't have better answers.

fj1200

02-01-2013, 02:53 PM

There's nothing wrong with the graph. As I was arguing with Jimmy, Obama's increase in spending has very little to do with the explosion in debt. The downturn, itself, creates much of the debt due to loss of revenue.

Other than 1-2 trillion in additional spending (stimulus, etc), what extra spending is causing this 6 trillion of debt?

And the big question is what is the right answer if Obama is doing the wrong thing. The reason for this entire thread is mostly the cut in military spending (6.6%) but Republicans are demanding many more cuts. How do you boost the economy and not blow up the deficit? Republicans certainly don't have better answers.

The graph is completely biased and cherry picks particular data to make its point. As I mentioned before it uses economic projections from 2001 that turned out to be completely false and ignores basic economic history. As I said before tax rates do not correlate to tax revenues and using static CBO analysis completely misses the mark. I also like how they just sidestep the stimulus and the downturn as if it falls completely on Bush. The whole thing is disingenuous.

But you're right, the big question is what is BO doing wrong? Just about everything IMO, he raises taxes on a weak economy and he imposes new regulations on an over-regulated economy. Regulations may not have a Federal revenue "cost" but it seriously hampers private businesses. If you ask me we need to eliminate baseline budgeting and cut tax rates and regulations. Merely limiting budget growth to the rate of inflation and an actual economic recovery would bring the budget into reality in short order.

BTW, I do think that there were some straight-to-the-deficit tax cuts in the Bush cuts, as well as in the stimulus efforts, in the form of one-time rebates doled out to tax payers. Guess who championed those?

And what is causing the deficit? Spending beyond the historical norms and revenues that are far below historical norms. I'll put that last on BO as his efforts at lowering the unemployment rate have been dismal.

bingster

02-01-2013, 04:21 PM

The graph is completely biased and cherry picks particular data to make its point. As I mentioned before it uses economic projections from 2001 that turned out to be completely false and ignores basic economic history. As I said before tax rates do not correlate to tax revenues and using static CBO analysis completely misses the mark. I also like how they just sidestep the stimulus and the downturn as if it falls completely on Bush. The whole thing is disingenuous.

But you're right, the big question is what is BO doing wrong? Just about everything IMO, he raises taxes on a weak economy and he imposes new regulations on an over-regulated economy. Regulations may not have a Federal revenue "cost" but it seriously hampers private businesses. If you ask me we need to eliminate baseline budgeting and cut tax rates and regulations. Merely limiting budget growth to the rate of inflation and an actual economic recovery would bring the budget into reality in short order.

BTW, I do think that there were some straight-to-the-deficit tax cuts in the Bush cuts, as well as in the stimulus efforts, in the form of one-time rebates doled out to tax payers. Guess who championed those?

And what is causing the deficit? Spending beyond the historical norms and revenues that are far below historical norms. I'll put that last on BO as his efforts at lowering the unemployment rate have been dismal.

After all of your intellectual, and thought out banter, you're back to tax cuts! What about the deficit?

You're obviously better than this than I am, but I don't know how you're going to prove to me that cutting taxes have nothing to do with revenue or the deficit. That makes no logical sense. I've read Friedman and know about the Laffer curve, but the stimulative properties of cuts are dismal unless they are huge. Reagan was probably the last president to really stimulate the economy with a tax cut but it was from 70% down to around 30%. That would make a splash, but if you're really serious about the deficit, you can't do that now.

Regulations need to stay put. You can't bitch about an economic downturn and bitch about the regulation of Wall Street. Also, we need industry regulations to protect our environment. We're one of only two countries in the world who have a population of over 10% who don't believe in climate change. Have you seen "Gasland"? We still aren't dealing with the issues caused by fracking.

Most of the world is still struggling with this economic downturn and many European countries are learning that austerity measures are forcing them into double and tripple-dip recessions. We either need to ride this one out or spend more to stimulate the economy. Let's spend it now with the lower interest rates and then we can cut when the economy comes back.

tailfins

02-01-2013, 04:26 PM

Regulations need to stay put. You can't bitch about an economic downturn and bitch about the regulation of Wall Street. Also, we need industry regulations to protect our environment. We're one of only two countries in the world who have a population of over 10% who don't believe in climate change. Have you seen "Gasland"? We still aren't dealing with the issues caused by fracking.

Thank you and all like you for my $390 electric bill for 2000 KWH of usage.

Robert A Whit

02-01-2013, 04:47 PM

Pretty much confirmed my previous post regarding Gabby's concerns. Not so much regarding the comparisons between Katrina and Sandy, they hit very different economic centers. Katrina 'nationwide' hit only the major port of New Orleans and environs. While a local mega catastrophe, not so much on economy. Sandy, moreso, but not to the level Gabby is alleging.

When Katrina hit, I debated it a lot with Democrats. It hurt a lot more than New Orleans. The states of Alabama and Mississippi also took serious hits. Then Katrian kept wandering north creating more damage.

Gabby is not supported in her claims about Sandy by none other than Hillary Clinton who touched on this in her final speech at State Department.

Somebody made a good point that those storms actually created jobs. Much of New Orleans was in ruins. Mississippi had miles of destruction even some distance from the coast.

I don't like hurricanes nor do I ever want to be near them.

We have earthquakes but they last moments. And we build to stand up to them. I expect to see some quake that really does as much to our area as happened to Alaska many years ago. But those super quakes are rare.

I think what makes Sandy so special is the damage it did plus it also was rare where it hit.

fj1200

02-01-2013, 05:03 PM

After all of your intellectual, and thought out banter, you're back to tax cuts! What about the deficit?

You're obviously better than this than I am, but I don't know how you're going to prove to me that cutting taxes have nothing to do with revenue or the deficit. That makes no logical sense. I've read Friedman and know about the Laffer curve, but the stimulative properties of cuts are dismal unless they are huge. Reagan was probably the last president to really stimulate the economy with a tax cut but it was from 70% down to around 30%. That would make a splash, but if you're really serious about the deficit, you can't do that now.

Are you purposely ignoring every reference to average revenues to GDP that I've made? The answer is clearly yes. Just because taxes aren't paid by one person doesn't mean they don't get paid by someone else via purchases, investment, etc. I'll ask again; if rates determine revenue, please explain the following:

http://media.hoover.org/images/tax_rates_graph_ranson.jpg?size=large

The unemployment rate is far more correlated to revenues than tax rates and we are doing precious little to stimulate that:

http://static3.businessinsider.com/image/50ddd67eeab8ea2358000009-612-460/screen%20shot%202012-12-13%20at%202.51.31%20pm-1-1.jpg

Would you care to clarify your concerns about the deficit now? And yes I'm better but it helps that the numbers bear me out.

Regulations need to stay put. You can't bitch about an economic downturn and bitch about the regulation of Wall Street. Also, we need industry regulations to protect our environment. We're one of only two countries in the world who have a population of over 10% who don't believe in climate change. Have you seen "Gasland"? We still aren't dealing with the issues caused by fracking.

Bad regulations are bad and do not need to stay put. I don't understand the assumption that the government "did something" so everything is now OK, it's laughable that some have this overarching faith in anything that comes out of DC. And BTW I can bitch about the downturn and the regulation of Wall Street because the two are not connected in the way that you think. The last time we had major problems in Wall Street 10+ years ago the government came up with Sarbanes Oxley which is estimated to be more costly than it's benefits:

The cost of all this is steep. According to one study that has attracted a lot of attention, the net private cost amounts to $1.4 trillion. This astonishing figure comes from a paper by Ivy Xiying Zhang of the William E. Simon Graduate School of Business Administration at the University of Rochester. It is an econometric estimate of “the loss in total market value around the most significant legislative events”—ie, the costs minus the benefits as perceived by the stockmarket as the new rules were enacted. In principle, this ought to reflect all the anticipated costs and benefits, direct and indirect, that impinge on company values. If this number were true, SOX would have to prevent an awful lot of unforeseen losses due to fraud before it could be judged a good buy.
http://www.economist.com/node/3984019

... and it didn't even work to prevent the latest crisis. This is another example in how we are selling out any global competitive advantage that we had. We make employees more expensive with health care mandates, payroll taxes, and corporate taxes to name but a few but now we're purposely decimating our capital market advantages. It's no wonder that our global competitive ranking has been plummeting; we're currently 7th (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Competitiveness_Report), down from 1st four years ago.

I also didn't say anything about environmental regulations. That's always the fall back when someone mentions deregulation isn't it?

Most of the world is still struggling with this economic downturn and many European countries are learning that austerity measures are forcing them into double and tripple-dip recessions. We either need to ride this one out or spend more to stimulate the economy. Let's spend it now with the lower interest rates and then we can cut when the economy comes back.

That's because austerity sucks but that's essentially what we're doing, raising taxes and there is no way that we would spend enough to stimulate. Besides, government spending is pointless because it removes the money from some other sector.

"Then we can cut..." :laugh:

bingster

02-01-2013, 10:56 PM

Thank you and all like you for my $390 electric bill for 2000 KWH of usage.

Dude, get a solar cell, don't blame me!

bingster

02-01-2013, 11:06 PM

Are you purposely ignoring every reference to average revenues to GDP that I've made? The answer is clearly yes. Just because taxes aren't paid by one person doesn't mean they don't get paid by someone else via purchases, investment, etc. I'll ask again; if rates determine revenue, please explain the following:

http://media.hoover.org/images/tax_rates_graph_ranson.jpg?size=large

The unemployment rate is far more correlated to revenues than tax rates and we are doing precious little to stimulate that:

http://static3.businessinsider.com/image/50ddd67eeab8ea2358000009-612-460/screen%20shot%202012-12-13%20at%202.51.31%20pm-1-1.jpg

Would you care to clarify your concerns about the deficit now? And yes I'm better but it helps that the numbers bear me out.

Bad regulations are bad and do not need to stay put. I don't understand the assumption that the government "did something" so everything is now OK, it's laughable that some have this overarching faith in anything that comes out of DC. And BTW I can bitch about the downturn and the regulation of Wall Street because the two are not connected in the way that you think. The last time we had major problems in Wall Street 10+ years ago the government came up with Sarbanes Oxley which is estimated to be more costly than it's benefits:

http://www.economist.com/node/3984019

... and it didn't even work to prevent the latest crisis. This is another example in how we are selling out any global competitive advantage that we had. We make employees more expensive with health care mandates, payroll taxes, and corporate taxes to name but a few but now we're purposely decimating our capital market advantages. It's no wonder that our global competitive ranking has been plummeting; we're currently 7th (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Competitiveness_Report), down from 1st four years ago.

I also didn't say anything about environmental regulations. That's always the fall back when someone mentions deregulation isn't it?

That's because austerity sucks but that's essentially what we're doing, raising taxes and there is no way that we would spend enough to stimulate. Besides, government spending is pointless because it removes the money from some other sector.

"Then we can cut..." :laugh:

wow, you gave me way too much to research to respond to right away. off of the top of my head, that 1st graph doesn't make any sense. you have rates from 90% down to whatever and then you have the cool beigh wavey line at the 20% mark. 20% of what? I get what it's intending to portray, but it doesn't make sense.

WGBTU

fj1200

02-02-2013, 06:54 AM

wow, you gave me way too much to research to respond to right away. off of the top of my head, that 1st graph doesn't make any sense. you have rates from 90% down to whatever and then you have the cool beigh wavey line at the 20% mark. 20% of what? I get what it's intending to portray, but it doesn't make sense.

WGBTU

The graph makes perfect sense... unless you don't want it too. The blue wavey line is tax revenues as % of GDP. Here's a link (http://www.hoover.org/publications/hoover-digest/article/5728).

I await the results of your research.

red states rule

02-04-2013, 03:02 AM

Missileman

02-04-2013, 09:01 AM

Obamacare is not only deficit neutral, it lessens the deficit.

It was laughably "deficit neutral" when the price tag for the 1st ten years was a trillion dollars. The new estimate is nearing 3 times that. There is NO WAY Obamacare is not going to ADD to the deficit and debt.

Missileman

02-04-2013, 09:08 AM

fj1200

02-04-2013, 09:43 AM

It was laughably "deficit neutral" when the price tag for the 1st ten years was a trillion dollars. The new estimate is nearing 3 times that. There is NO WAY Obamacare is not going to ADD to the deficit and debt.

Yeah, and when you look at the track record of Medicare A & B the view that the deficit will go down is highly questionable. I also found this about Bushes Medicare Part D:

In its latest budget report, released last week, CBO reduced its Medicare Part D spending projection for years 2013 through 2022 by $107 billion. CBO has continually dropped its cost projections for Part D. In April 2011 CBO reduced its 10-year Part D spending projection by about $120 billion.CBO is now projecting Part D is costing 43 percent below its original 2004 estimate.
Interestingly, CBO increased its projected spending for the rest of Medicare. Spending in Medicare Parts A and B are increasing while Part D is dramatically slowing. And, if not for Part D’s savings, overall Medicare costs would be escalating. This is because CBO projected that overall Medicare spending will go down over the next 10 years by $7 billion, and pointedly said that the overall decrease is a result of the $107 billion reduction projected spending for coverage under Part D.
It should be noted that while the Medicare-wide reduction was driven entirely by Part D, that program comprises only 11 percent of overall program spending – it is dwarfed in size by the rest of Medicare.
http://catalyst.phrma.org/new-congressional-budget-office-findings-show-medicare-part-d-continues-hold-line-costs/

That would seem to blunt the criticism that Part D wasn't "paid for" when passed.

bingster

02-04-2013, 05:03 PM

BIng whenever taxes are cut, it creates economic growth and increases revenue to the government

It did when JFK cut taxes

It when when Regan cut taxes (revenue to DC DOUBLED in 8 years)

and it did when Pres Bush cut taxes

If you want to tax anything, it makes sense to encourage that activity and not discourage it. Libs seem hellbent on punishing achievement.

Here is candidate Obama stumbling when confronted with the evidence lower taxes generates more revenue - then it is not about fixing the deficit it is about "fairness"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c4iy2OfScQE

I think your analysis of history is a little distorted. Looking at a graph of Federal Revenue, there was a considerable increase in revenues after Reagan's tax cut, but he also increased govt spending by at least as much. In fact, Reagan took our nation from the world's largest creditor nation to the world's largest debtor nation by trippling our deficit in 8 years.

The increases in revenue from Obama's revenue nadir to his apex is much higher than Reagan's or Bush's. The longest and best looking revenue mountain was caused by Clinton who mixed budget cuts with increased taxes.4471

fj1200

02-04-2013, 05:21 PM

I think your analysis of history is a little distorted. Looking at a graph of Federal Revenue, there was a considerable increase in revenues after Reagan's tax cut, but he also increased govt spending by at least as much. In fact, Reagan took our nation from the world's largest creditor nation to the world's largest debtor nation by trippling our deficit in 8 years.

The increases in revenue from Obama's revenue nadir to his apex is much higher than Reagan's or Bush's. The longest and best looking revenue mountain was caused by Clinton who mixed budget cuts with increased taxes.4471

First, I don't think your graph is showing only Federal revenues, the numbers should be around 20% if that's the case. Second, Republicans didn't control Congress in the 80's while they did in the 90's so your point about spending is a bit off. ;) Besides, there were no Clinton budget cuts and Democrats always ignore the cap gains tax cut when touting the Clinton record.

aboutime

02-04-2013, 06:06 PM

It was laughably "deficit neutral" when the price tag for the 1st ten years was a trillion dollars. The new estimate is nearing 3 times that. There is NO WAY Obamacare is not going to ADD to the deficit and debt.

Missileman. Up to now. If anyone was questioning who Bought the Brooklyn Bridge for a Dollar? Looks like there's little doubt now, how our "deficit neutral Bingster" is now trying to figure out what the DOLLAR got him????

bingster

02-04-2013, 06:22 PM

First, I don't think your graph is showing only Federal revenues, the numbers should be around 20% if that's the case. Second, Republicans didn't control Congress in the 80's while they did in the 90's so your point about spending is a bit off. ;) Besides, there were no Clinton budget cuts and Democrats always ignore the cap gains tax cut when touting the Clinton record.

So, it was Democrats during the Reagan administration that doubled or tripled military spending, and therefore they get the credit for bringing down the Soviet Union? Cool!

Actually, Clinton did make significant cuts to Medicare, although Gingrich didn't vote for them (I read somewhere), his budgets resulted in a surplus.

bingster

02-04-2013, 06:33 PM

Missileman. Up to now. If anyone was questioning who Bought the Brooklyn Bridge for a Dollar? Looks like there's little doubt now, how our "deficit neutral Bingster" is now trying to figure out what the DOLLAR got him????

Hey, I just went with what the CBO estimates said. If you want to join fj1200 in including the name Ronald Reagan when talking about fiscal responsibility, I know why you want to sell be the bridge for a dollar. Some Democrat probably sold it to you for $20.

Voted4Reagan

02-04-2013, 06:45 PM

Sequester happens in less than 2 months.....

lets here liberals when it occurs....

bingster

02-04-2013, 06:46 PM

bingster

02-04-2013, 06:58 PM

I'm sure I'm guilty of picking and choosing different historical facts while ignoring others but Republicans do it too. You can't credit Reagan's and Bush's tax cuts with saving the economy while ignoring their outragious spending.

Republicans love to say the New Deal didn't get us out of the Great Depression and they correctly note that World War II did. So what was the war, a tax cut? No, it was outragious government spending that got us out of the Great Depression. The war was spending!

Missileman

02-04-2013, 07:24 PM

bingster

02-04-2013, 07:30 PM

Aren't you the one who gripes about the "spending" we've done on the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan?

I was arguing that I'm not sure anyone can actually point out when tax cuts alone had a significant positive effect on the economy. Reagan and Bush accompanied their tax cuts with massive spending. You can't just parse history to mean what you want it to mean.

bingster

02-04-2013, 07:32 PM

Aren't you the one who gripes about the "spending" we've done on the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan?

When I "gripe" about spending on the wars, it's to defend against the hypocritical accusations against Obama.

Missileman

02-04-2013, 07:41 PM

When I "gripe" about spending on the wars, it's to defend against the hypocritical accusations against Obama.

Don't you also argue that tax cuts are a form of spending?

Kathianne

02-04-2013, 08:00 PM

Esox

02-04-2013, 08:51 PM

When I "gripe" about spending on the wars, it's to defend against the hypocritical accusations against Obama.
A lot of people who now rip the 'Bammer for his warmongering were also against Bush's.

Maybe you'll need to check out that plank in your eye.

bingster

02-04-2013, 09:30 PM

I'm very curious, have you watched my Keynes and Hayek videos (http://www.debatepolicy.com/showthread.php?39121-Hayek-vs-Keynes-Rap-Anthem)?

Awesome video. I'll probably watch it a couple of times.

It reminds me of a quote from The West Wing:

"Economists were put on this earth to make astrologers look good"

bingster

02-04-2013, 09:36 PM

A lot of people who now rip the 'Bammer for his warmongering were also against Bush's.

Maybe you'll need to check out that plank in your eye.

Actually that's not the point. I'm one of those against "'Bammer for his warmongerin" I just can't stand the damn hypocrisy! In fact, most of the times I mention the wars from the Bush administration is when I'm defending Obama being accused of being a spend thrift.

bingster

02-04-2013, 09:37 PM

Don't you also argue that tax cuts are a form of spending?

Actually, it's the opposite, but has the same effect on the deficit.

fj1200

02-04-2013, 10:00 PM

So, it was Democrats during the Reagan administration that doubled or tripled military spending, and therefore they get the credit for bringing down the Soviet Union? Cool!

Yup, they went along. They did a great job of negotiating with Mikhail, oh wait...

Actually, Clinton did make significant cuts to Medicare, although Gingrich didn't vote for them (I read somewhere), his budgets resulted in a surplus.

Nope.
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/9/96/Percapita_costs.png/400px-Percapita_costs.png

No cuts in Medicare there. Clinton's budgets huh?

Now let us contrast this with the Clinton fiscal record. Recall that it was the Clinton White House that fought Republicans every inch of the way in balancing the budget in 1995. When Republicans proposed their own balanced-budget plan, the White House waged a shameless Mediscare campaign to torpedo the plan — a campaign that the Washington Post slammed as “pure demagoguery.” It was Bill Clinton who, during the big budget fight in 1995, had to submit not one, not two, but five budgets until he begrudgingly matched the GOP’s balanced-budget plan. In fact, during the height of the budget wars in the summer of 1995, the Clinton administration admitted that “balancing the budget is not one of our top priorities.”And lest we forget, it was Bill Clinton and his wife who tried to engineer a federal takeover of the health care system — a plan that would have sent the government’s finances into the stratosphere. Tom Delay was right: for Clinton to take credit for the balanced budget is like Chicago Cubs pitcher Steve Trachsel taking credit for delivering the pitch to Mark McGuire that he hit out of the park for his 62nd home run.
The figure shows that the actual cumulative budget deficit from 1994 to 1998 was almost $600 billion below the Clintonomics baseline. Part of the explanation for the balanced budget is that Republicans in Congress had the common sense to reject the most reckless features of Clintonomics. Just this year, Bill Clinton’s budget proposed more than $100 billion in new social spending — proposals that were mostly tossed overboard. It’s funny, but back in January the White House didn’t seem too concerned about saving the surplus for “shoring up Social Security.”
http://www.cato.org/publications/commentary/no-bill-clinton-didnt-balance-budget

What else have you read?

Hey, I just went with what the CBO estimates said. If you want to join fj1200 in including the name Ronald Reagan when talking about fiscal responsibility, I know why you want to sell be the bridge for a dollar. Some Democrat probably sold it to you for $20.

You might want to check on the CBO's track record. Not good (http://www.freedomworks.org/files/capitol_comment_CBO_scores_PDF_2.pdf).

I'm sure I'm guilty of picking and choosing different historical facts while ignoring others but Republicans do it too. You can't credit Reagan's and Bush's tax cuts with saving the economy while ignoring their outragious spending.

Republicans love to say the New Deal didn't get us out of the Great Depression and they correctly note that World War II did. So what was the war, a tax cut? No, it was outragious government spending that got us out of the Great Depression. The war was spending!

It didn't get us out of the GD, it prolonged it. It's really the same drag that we have today; reliance on something coming out of DC to solve the problem. The solution is unleashing the private sector. That's what FDR finally did in WWII. It's really not the government spending that is the spark, helpful in some cases sure but your reliance on it is misguided. Economic growth in the late 90's was ramping up as spending growth was winding down.

bingster

02-04-2013, 10:28 PM

Yup, they went along. They did a great job of negotiating with Mikhail, oh wait...

Nope.
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/9/96/Percapita_costs.png/400px-Percapita_costs.png

No cuts in Medicare there. Clinton's budgets huh?

http://www.cato.org/publications/commentary/no-bill-clinton-didnt-balance-budget

What else have you read?

You might want to check on the CBO's track record. Not good (http://www.freedomworks.org/files/capitol_comment_CBO_scores_PDF_2.pdf).

It didn't get us out of the GD, it prolonged it. It's really the same drag that we have today; reliance on something coming out of DC to solve the problem. The solution is unleashing the private sector. That's what FDR finally did in WWII. It's really not the government spending that is the spark, helpful in some cases sure but your reliance on it is misguided. Economic growth in the late 90's was ramping up as spending growth was winding down.

FDR raised taxes every other year from 41 to 45. How did he "unleash the private sector" besides spending a butt load of money on private sector's military projects?

p.s. I figured you'd get me on Clinton, but I noticed you didn't defend Reagan.

fj1200

02-04-2013, 10:29 PM

FDR raised taxes every other year from 41 to 45. How did he "unleash the private sector" besides spending a butt load of money?

In short by not demonizing big business as he had until he realized that he needed their help to win the war. Anything about the rest of that post?

fj1200

02-04-2013, 10:41 PM

FDR raised taxes every other year from 41 to 45. How did he "unleash the private sector" besides spending a butt load of money on private sector's military projects?

So much good stuff in this link:

The FDR Lesson Obama Should Follow (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304451104577390192565641460.html)
Roosevelt was under intense pressure from his own administration—and from his wife Eleanor—not to agree. They believed it was impossible to convert to a wartime footing without a comprehensive, centrally directed plan for total mobilization and a single commanding figure in charge—in short, a war-production czar. "Democracy must wage total war," his aide Harry Hopkins wrote in a secret memo. "It must exceed the Nazi in fury, ruthlessness, and efficiency."Knudsen disagreed. "If we get into war," he told the administration, "the winning of it will be purely a question of material and production"—and the best way to do that was to harness the forces and energies of private industry.
His advice was to clear away antiquated antibusiness tax laws and regulations and give the military's orders for materiel to the most productive sectors of the economy—the automotive, steel, chemical and electronics industries. Federal dollars would follow the trail of productivity and innovation, not the other way around.
Knudsen also insisted on keeping the process voluntary and decentralized, so that companies would be free to decide on their own which war materiel they were best suited to bid on, and how to produce it. The point was to reduce Washington's interference in the production process to a minimum.
This proposal was in effect Roosevelt's first introduction to supply-side economics. To arm the nation for war, Roosevelt not only had to agree to set aside his own ideological misgivings but almost a decade of his own failed economic policies. "Dr. New Deal," Roosevelt told the press, was going to have to make way for "Dr. Win the War."
The results, as Knudsen had promised, were staggering. Barely a year later—by the time Japanese bombs fell on Pearl Harbor in December of 1941—the scale of American war production was fast approaching that of Nazi Germany.
America truly became the "arsenal of democracy" (the phrase Knudsen invented). By the end of 1942 we were producing more tanks, ships, planes and guns than the entire Axis; by the end of 1943 more than Germany, the Soviet Union and Britain combined. American companies and farmers were equipping and feeding our allies as well—in the Soviet Union's case, Americans were providing almost a fifth of gross national product. Ford Motor Co. alone produced more munitions during the war than fascist Italy's entire economy.
Contrary to myth, the war didn't end the Depression or make Americans prosperous. Even with rising wages, they had to put up with rationing and very limited choice in consumer goods. National wealth, in terms of assets as measured by the Commerce Department, had barely changed. But unleashed to help win the war, American business enterprise had been brought back to life, and in 1945 it was ready to convert from making machine guns to washing machines and tractors again.
Many feared that with the end of government wartime spending—almost $300 billion worth, or $3 trillion in today's dollars—unemployment would boomerang, wages (which wartime work had driven up by an average of 70%) would fall and hopes for prosperity would be extinguished. Instead, private investment came roaring back, triggering steady economic growth that pushed the U.S. into a new era, as the most prosperous society in history.

p.s. I figured you'd get me on Clinton, but I noticed you didn't defend Reagan.

Defend Reagan? He's so good he doesn't need my help. :poke: Besides, defense spending went up and the wall came down; can't argue results.

bingster

02-04-2013, 10:49 PM

I'm very curious, have you watched my Keynes and Hayek videos (http://www.debatepolicy.com/showthread.php?39121-Hayek-vs-Keynes-Rap-Anthem)?

I wasn't really arguing so much supply vs demand side economics as I was arguing that with all of the spending of Bush and Reagan, how can you even tell the difference between their policies and Obama's?

Robert A Whit

02-04-2013, 11:27 PM

You are ignoring the biggest factor of the debt: the economic downturn. Since revenues go down in a down turn, the debt goes up. Yes, this happened just when Obama went into office-maybe you weren't paying attention? You remember, October 2008-Feb 2009 was when the economy went off of the cliff.

LOL yourself! Republicans solution was tax cuts only! Obama mixed additional tax cuts with stimulus. I've already outlined all of the outstanding spending Obama has done and it mostly only adds up to 1 trillion. It's not that he spent so much, it's a revenue problem! Even without arguing tax increases, you only have to take into account the fact that with high unemployment rates, the government takes in less revenue-this causes higher debt.

Even Republicans in the Congress aren't going after Obama's spending. Think about it, they're going after Social Security and Medicare. That isn't Obama's spending! Health care got more expensive without Obama. Obamacare is not only deficit neutral, it lessens the deficit.

Explain what spending you're talking about. Most of the bailouts have been paid back, although tarp and the 1st gm bailout came from Bush.

The debt, like I explained before is downturn, and Bush policies. I'll bet you can't prove 20% of our debt has anything to do with new spending. I don't need to bet, I know it's not new spending.

There are only three things we can do about the current economy: spend more, cut taxes, or wait. Congress won't allow the 1st two, so we'll have to be patient.

Love to agree with you. When do you plan to get it right? I admit you got it part right.

What makes you think the only thing republicans wanted was tax cuts? Remember that they did not go after more cuts, but wanted to keep those that were law.

Go check out revenues. Bush got more than Clinton and I believe you will find that Obama got more. So why if he gets more must he spend?

I hope you are not trying to blame Bush for the downturn.

Holding onto the current workers, ie. teachers, cops, firemen and so forth is not extra spending, it is merely hanging on. You would be amazed at what rich people got that stimulus. If you wanted people even more wealthy, that worked fine.

Obamacare costs a huge amount of money and he took money from Medicare to be used for other people. His cuts to Medicare did not save a dime since they were transfers to his program.

I am not clear how republicans are going after medicare, they claim they plan to save it.

Sorry, all for now.

red states rule

02-05-2013, 03:25 AM

I think your analysis of history is a little distorted. Looking at a graph of Federal Revenue, there was a considerable increase in revenues after Reagan's tax cut, but he also increased govt spending by at least as much. In fact, Reagan took our nation from the world's largest creditor nation to the world's largest debtor nation by trippling our deficit in 8 years.

The increases in revenue from Obama's revenue nadir to his apex is much higher than Reagan's or Bush's. The longest and best looking revenue mountain was caused by Clinton who mixed budget cuts with increased taxes.4471

The history s very accurate. Tax cuts do not cause deficits - over spending does. In the case of Bush 43, spending went through the roof in his last 2 years when your beloved Dems took over both chambers of Congress and the spending has gone on non stop

The only reason Clinton cut spending ws due to R's taking over both the House and Senate and Clinton had no choice

bingster

02-05-2013, 05:33 PM

So much good stuff in this link:

The FDR Lesson Obama Should Follow (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304451104577390192565641460.html)

Defend Reagan? He's so good he doesn't need my help. :poke: Besides, defense spending went up and the wall came down; can't argue results.

I don't buy the description of this being "supply side". The government paid for all of these military projects, just like a stimulus bill. If he deregulated, that's a minor adjustment, the meat of what he did was pass the biggest stimulus plan in US history (adjusted for inflation). Again, as for Reagan's economic success, you can't separate his supply side tax cuts with his formula of stimulus package: his massive military spending.

fj1200

02-05-2013, 05:51 PM

I don't buy the description of this being "supply side". The government paid for all of these military projects, just like a stimulus bill. If he deregulated, that's a minor adjustment, the meat of what he did was pass the biggest stimulus plan in US history (adjusted for inflation). Again, as for Reagan's economic success, you can't separate his supply side tax cuts with his formula of stimulus package: his massive military spending.

I'll agree it's not classic supply side, more of a move towards free-market capitalism of which FDR was loathe to do; to call it a 'minor adjustment' is to ignore the reality of how bad the New Deal was and the major move towards working with business rather than demonizing it at every turn. The meat was acknowledging the failure of what he had tried with the vision that he had to challenge Germany.

As far as Reagan, his budget deficits to GDP were lower than we have now and don't seem to correlate to growth anyway. You need to remove money from the capital markets to fund the deficit, capital that could be put to other use in the private sector.

red states rule

02-06-2013, 02:17 AM

I don't buy the description of this being "supply side". The government paid for all of these military projects, just like a stimulus bill. If he deregulated, that's a minor adjustment, the meat of what he did was pass the biggest stimulus plan in US history (adjusted for inflation). Again, as for Reagan's economic success, you can't separate his supply side tax cuts with his formula of stimulus package: his massive military spending.

BTW Bing can you tell me what happened to those spending cuts Dems promised Reagan when he approved tax increases to help close the deficit? I believe they promised Reagan for every dollars in tax increases Dems would cut spending by $5

Of course the tax increases were approved quickly but I do not recall Dems keeping their word on the spending cuts

The same thing happened to Bush 41 when he took the word of Dems and approved tax increases

Bottom line is, Dems always want to solve budget issues with tax increases and NEVER actually give any serious thought to cutting the bloated government's intake of taxpayer money

BTW, Reagan did something that no candidate will ever do again in my lifetime. We won reelection with 49 states - so he must have been doing something damn good

red states rule

02-06-2013, 03:40 AM

I wasn't really arguing so much supply vs demand side economics as I was arguing that with all of the spending of Bush and Reagan, how can you even tell the difference between their policies and Obama's?

I do not recall Bush or Reagan ignoring existing bankruptcy law to use taxpayers money to funnel to auto unions that has cost taxpayers about $20 billion' or imposing national healthcare and forcing people to buy a product/service under the threat of fines and jail, or spending over a trillion dollars on a stimulus that was loaded with pork and a payoff to keep government union workers on the job (and when the money dried up so did their jobs); or having the nations credit downgraded due to their refusal to cut the insane level of spending; or I do not recall Reagan or Bush gambling with hundreds of billions of taxpayer money on "green" projects that they knew were no good but went through with them as political payoffs to supporters

Need more examples Bing?

bingster

02-06-2013, 12:51 PM

The history s very accurate. Tax cuts do not cause deficits - over spending does. In the case of Bush 43, spending went through the roof in his last 2 years when your beloved Dems took over both chambers of Congress and the spending has gone on non stop

The only reason Clinton cut spending ws due to R's taking over both the House and Senate and Clinton had no choice

I disagree that the history is very accurate. Arguing that tax cuts do not cause deficits is practically a "which came first the chicken or the egg" concept. If spending is x and revenue is x and you cut taxes or an economic downturn occurs that lowers revenue to x minus y, you get a deficit.

Looking at Obama spending and deficits, you'll find one does not equal the other. The reduction in revenue is the main reason for the deficits, not ADDITIONAL spending. His additional spending does not equal 9 trillion dollars-it just doesn't.

bingster

02-06-2013, 01:05 PM

I do not recall Bush or Reagan ignoring existing bankruptcy law to use taxpayers money to funnel to auto unions that has cost taxpayers about $20 billion'
Source?
or imposing national healthcare and forcing people to buy a product/service under the threat of fines and jail,
no jail time threatened, and fine is very minor ($90/year) and it's a good Republican idea
or spending over a trillion dollars on a stimulus that was loaded with pork and a payoff to keep government union workers on the job (and when the money dried up so did their jobs);
it's called stimulus-do you really think Democrats invented pork?
or having the nations credit downgraded due to their refusal to cut the insane level of spending;
Republicans holding the debt limit hostage 1st time in history. I know Republicans believe in negotiating with terrorists, but I didn't think they would stoop to being economic terrorists
or I do not recall Reagan or Bush gambling with hundreds of billions of taxpayer money on "green" projects that they knew were no good but went through with them as political payoffs to supporters
Only something like 36 out of 1200 green companies that we invested in went under. That was a far better record than Romney's Bain company.

Need more examples Bing?

You can scrape up all of the unrelated crap you want but you won't find more than 2 trillion in new spending to account for the additional 9 trillion in debt. Again, the point of my original argument was that you can't say Reagan and Bush achieved economic prosperity PURELY through tax cuts, because you can't separate the cuts from the massive spending. You can't argue one philosophy is better than the other, when you use both at the same time.

bingster

02-06-2013, 03:39 PM

4478

Compare how much Bush raised spending between 2005 and 2009 to how much Obama raised spending from 2009 to 2013. His debt is more a result of lost revenue and not ending Bush programs than additional spending.

red states rule

02-06-2013, 04:57 PM

Bing you can continue to ignore the truth and keep saying Obama is not spending us into oblivion but even the CBO fessed up and confirmed that most of us already knew

and like every government agency their projections are always on the low end and the real numbers are usually much higher

The good news from yesterday’s CBO report is that we may actually end up with a sub-trillion-dollar deficit (http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/02/05/us-usa-fiscal-cbo-idUSBRE9140ZQ20130205) this year. The annual deficit for FY2013 will come in at $845 billion, the first time in five years that it’s been less than the 13-figure mark. However, that depends on keeping the law at the status quo — including the sequester:

CBO forecast that the deficit for fiscal 2013, which ends September 30, will shrink slightly to $845 billion after four straight years above $1 trillion. The reason is an improving economy and higher taxes paid by wealthy Americans.

The CBO analysis, which will feed into Congress’ bitter debate over how to tame deficits, assumes that $85 billion in automatic spending cuts will launch as scheduled on March 1. … It forecast a $616 billion deficit in fiscal 2014 and a $430 billion deficit in fiscal 2015, equivalent to 2.4 percent of U.S. gross domestic product at that time, a level that many economists view as sustainable.
And that’s about the extent of the good news, too, and even that’s qualified. Those figures assume that Congress will not pass any more “doc fixes” and cut Medicare/Medicaid reimbursements substantially, as current law requires. If Congress passes more delays in already-scheduled cuts in reimbursements, those deficits will grow significantly.

By the way, that’s the bad news. Deficits will grow substantially anyway:

But deficits will rise steadily from mid-decade, nearing $1 trillion again by 2023, according to the forecast. The 10-year cumulative deficit is forecast at $6.958 trillion.

“Deficits are projected to increase later in the coming decade, however, because of the pressures of an aging population, rising health care costs, an expansion of federal subsidies for health insurance, and growing interest payments on federal debt,” the CBO said in the report.

http://hotair.com/archives/2013/02/06/cbo-us-to-add-7-trillion-more-in-debt-in-next-decade/

Robert A Whit

02-06-2013, 05:18 PM

Yeah, and when you look at the track record of Medicare A & B the view that the deficit will go down is highly questionable. I also found this about Bushes Medicare Part D:

http://catalyst.phrma.org/new-congressional-budget-office-findings-show-medicare-part-d-continues-hold-line-costs/

That would seem to blunt the criticism that Part D wasn't "paid for" when passed.

I get my drugs paid for by plan D. I am also on Medicare.

In the first place, who understands Plan D?

Plan D has negotiations. Some wanted the Feds to be the sole form of trying to get price cuts.

Now there are many Plan D providers and they do a hell of a lot of negotiating.

One more thing. We see NOW that the price of intregated circuits has kept falling. What caused this to happen? Believe it or not, a major company decided to simply cut prices lower than their cost to make. The demand grew so fast they actually made a very large profit.

When Plan D kicked in, it caused the pill making companies to actually make many more pills so the cost per pill fell. A major part of pill costs is the invested dollars just to get the pill approve and to market. It makes perfect sense that to cut pill prices, you want companies encouraged to sell many more.

So what about the VA? Actually there are 8 classes of Vets. Many vets simply don't get health care provided by the VA. We are on other plans.

Bush by creating plan D actually forced prices of pills to fall.

Let me ask the forum.

Which is cheaper? My pills to control my diabetes or hospital stays to manage diabetes? It is amazing to me still that some tiny pill can actually keep me out of hospitals.

Plan D has savings to Medicare.

Robert A Whit

02-06-2013, 05:35 PM

Fiscally, the difference between Democrats and Republicans is:
Democrats tax and spend (on the people)
Republicans cut taxes and spend (on the military).
Yet, Republicans call themselves "fiscally responsible" for blowing up the debt more than Democrats usually do while cutting taxes.

How on earth can you believe that?

Obama holds the record for highest ever deficits. First by actual outlay. Then by number of years he keeps sailing merrily along acting like he has an endless supply of cash.

Ask yourself this. What if China still had a very poor economy? What rates to borrow do you think Obama would then be paying?

Then you claim Obama spends on the people. Surely you must mean he gets money from China and you must also mean you mean on welfare and other benefits such as the forever out of work payments?

Much of his so called stimulus got sent to the very rich. Take Solyandra for instance. That money went to men who were super rich. They bought land. They build some buildings. They were buying all sorts of expensive machines. They had a work force of 1100 people. But they got the loan. So, how did that work out for Obama?

You must also know that but for the blessing of the Dot.coms, Clinton never would have any surplus. He was very fortunate.

And Obama is on a path to get well above 20 trillion dollars in national debt. Bush went up about 3 trillion or so. Obama pounded the boards and proved he only needed two years to match Bush's 8 years.

If Obama's aim was to be the biggest spender, he sure managed to win that prize.

Robert A Whit

02-06-2013, 05:44 PM

I disagree that the history is very accurate. Arguing that tax cuts do not cause deficits is practically a "which came first the chicken or the egg" concept. If spending is x and revenue is x and you cut taxes or an economic downturn occurs that lowers revenue to x minus y, you get a deficit.

Looking at Obama spending and deficits, you'll find one does not equal the other. The reduction in revenue is the main reason for the deficits, not ADDITIONAL spending. His additional spending does not equal 9 trillion dollars-it just doesn't.

Fortunately for ME, your own chart comes back to disprove your own claims. Bush had, compared to Obama, tiny deficits.

But as your own spending chart proves, Bush had enormous revenues and they were spectacular.

Bear in mind, to understand, think of the small deficits of Bush vs spending.

The chart speaks of spending but of course with small deficits, it means Bush had huge revenue increases. So, tax cuts do produce more revenue.

Your chart follows.

http://www.debatepolicy.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=4478&d=1360183038

fj1200

02-06-2013, 06:08 PM

I disagree that the history is very accurate. Arguing that tax cuts do not cause deficits is practically a "which came first the chicken or the egg" concept. If spending is x and revenue is x and you cut taxes or an economic downturn occurs that lowers revenue to x minus y, you get a deficit.

Looking at Obama spending and deficits, you'll find one does not equal the other. The reduction in revenue is the main reason for the deficits, not ADDITIONAL spending. His additional spending does not equal 9 trillion dollars-it just doesn't.

Tax rates do not equate to tax revenues.

Compare how much Bush raised spending between 2005 and 2009 to how much Obama raised spending from 2009 to 2013. His debt is more a result of lost revenue and not ending Bush programs than additional spending.

Compare Federal spending to GDP; much higher under BO than Bush.

bingster

02-06-2013, 08:28 PM

Fortunately for ME, your own chart comes back to disprove your own claims. Bush had, compared to Obama, tiny deficits.

But as your own spending chart proves, Bush had enormous revenues and they were spectacular.

Bear in mind, to understand, think of the small deficits of Bush vs spending.

The chart speaks of spending but of course with small deficits, it means Bush had huge revenue increases. So, tax cuts do produce more revenue.

Your chart follows.

http://www.debatepolicy.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=4478&d=1360183038

When speaking of deficits, you continually disregard the lack of revenue, not only due to tax cuts, but also from less people paying taxes. I think my graph plainly shows that Bush, by far, increased spending much more than Obama did. The deficits were smaller during his administration only because the recession hadn't hit yet.

bingster

02-06-2013, 08:31 PM

Tax rates do not equate to tax revenues.

Compare Federal spending to GDP; much higher under BO than Bush.

I purposely did my graph in dollars, because the recession hurt gdp.

"Tax rates do not equate to tax revenues." has very little to do with reality. Yes, lower rates do cause some additional spending, but not necessarily enough to cause more revenue.4480

Here you go, here's your gdp graph. Obama's spending starts at the tallest peak.

Also, in the spirit of full disclosure, I'll include the link I'm using to create the graph. You just change the criteria and presto, you have a graph.
http://www.usgovernmentspending.com/spending_chart_2001_2013USp_13s1li011mcn_F0t

bingster

02-06-2013, 08:52 PM

Fortunately for ME, your own chart comes back to disprove your own claims. Bush had, compared to Obama, tiny deficits.

But as your own spending chart proves, Bush had enormous revenues and they were spectacular.

Bear in mind, to understand, think of the small deficits of Bush vs spending.

The chart speaks of spending but of course with small deficits, it means Bush had huge revenue increases. So, tax cuts do produce more revenue.

Your chart follows.

http://www.debatepolicy.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=4478&d=1360183038

My chart doesn't say anything about revenues. My chart does not prove that Bush's tax cuts caused revenues. Read the chart.

Robert A Whit

02-06-2013, 09:24 PM

red states rule

02-07-2013, 03:10 AM

My chart doesn't say anything about revenues. My chart does not prove that Bush's tax cuts caused revenues. Read the chart.

As I previously posted the Bush tax cuts did INCREASE revenue (and the data is from the Obama WH)

http://www.investors.com/image/2A1cuts_121203_345.png.cms

After President Bush in late May 2003 signed the largest tax cut since President Reagan — including dropping the top marginal rate to 35% from 39.6% — government receipts from individual income taxes rose from $793.7 billion to a peak of $1.16 trillion in 2007, when the mortgage crisis began, a 47% jump.
Stronger economic growth expanded the tax base and brought in so much revenue that Bush more than halved the deficit over that period. The budget gap plunged to $160.7 billion from $377.6 billion, according to the president's report.

Perhaps the most impressive statistic appears on Page 412, one that undercuts Obama's core argument against continuing the Bush tax cuts.
The post-tax-cut surge in economic growth and tax revenues helped drive down the deficit from 3.5% of gross domestic product in 2004 to 2.6% in 2005, to 1.9% in 2006 and to a manageable 1.2% in 2007.

Based on Bush fiscal policies, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office projected budget deficits of 0.7% to 1.5% of GDP for the years 2008 through 2011. The CBO even predicted surpluses for the subsequent years through 2018.

What derailed the forecast was the subprime mortgage crisis of 2008.

This financial anomaly threw the economy into a deep recession, beginning in December 2007, and forced a collapse in federal tax revenues.
As a result, the deficit-to-GDP ratio shot up to 10% in 2009 and has remained around that level, thanks to record Obama spending.

Read More At IBD: http://news.investors.com/ibd-editorials-perspective/113012-635352-bush-tax-cuts-did-not-cause-deficits.htm#ixzz2KG2kFunK
Follow us: @IBDinvestors on Twitter (http://ec.tynt.com/b/rw?id=dW0sw4iSyr3P7iab7jrHtB&u=IBDinvestors) | InvestorsBusinessDaily on Facebook (http://ec.tynt.com/b/rf?id=dW0sw4iSyr3P7iab7jrHtB&u=InvestorsBusinessDaily)

red states rule

02-07-2013, 04:41 AM

http://media.townhall.com/Townhall/Car/b/aria_c10696420130207120100.jpg

fj1200

02-07-2013, 08:11 AM

When speaking of deficits, you continually disregard the lack of revenue, not only due to tax cuts, but also from less people paying taxes. I think my graph plainly shows that Bush, by far, increased spending much more than Obama did. The deficits were smaller during his administration only because the recession hadn't hit yet.

Your graph doesn't plainly show anything and the deficits were not smaller under BO just because the recession didn't hit yet. They are certainly lower primarily due to unemployment being so high but spending is far above what revenues would be if revenues were at historical norms. But I'll agree that revenues are smaller due to tax cuts but those cuts are the demand-side tax cuts such as payroll tax cuts (clear deficit loser) and targeted tax cuts which do not have the long-term stimulative effect that is necessary.

But there's the rub, you ignore the control that the Democrats had since 2007 because there was nothing that Bush could have done to stimulate the economy during his last two years. Also, TARP was charged to Bush, deficit wise, and actually helped BO, deficit wise, as it was paid back during his administration.

I purposely did my graph in dollars, because the recession hurt gdp.

"Tax rates do not equate to tax revenues." has very little to do with reality. Yes, lower rates do cause some additional spending, but not necessarily enough to cause more revenue.4480

Here you go, here's your gdp graph. Obama's spending starts at the tallest peak.

Also, in the spirit of full disclosure, I'll include the link I'm using to create the graph. You just change the criteria and presto, you have a graph.
http://www.usgovernmentspending.com/spending_chart_2001_2013USp_13s1li011mcn_F0t

Why are you pulling spending graphs which appear to show all government spending and not just Federal? :confused:

I've already showed you that Federal revenues have precious little to do with actual Federal tax rates and everything to do with the size of GDP, secondarily the unemployment rate is a far better predictor of deficits than anything else. Should I show you the graphs again?

red states rule

02-08-2013, 02:52 AM

As I previously posted the Bush tax cuts did INCREASE revenue (and the data is from the Obama WH)

Ah Bing, how about those tax cuts increasing revenues to the government?

bingster

02-08-2013, 07:59 PM

Actually, FJ did a fine job proving to you (I know, you simply blew off his accurate reports) That there was no loss in revenue due to tax cuts.

I still have hope you will get it. As a Retail manager, surely when you had sales, you did not do it to lose revenue. Same for the Feds.

Actually FJ didn't prove anything. I'm not sure it can be proven that Bush's tax cuts had anything to do with the revenues one way or the other, because Bush SPENT SO MUCH!!! You can't cleave one item away from the other.

bingster

02-08-2013, 09:23 PM

As I previously posted the Bush tax cuts did INCREASE revenue (and the data is from the Obama WH)

The graph is not on the 2012 economic president's report
http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/microsites/ERP_2012_Complete.pdf
be my guest and find it.

Bush cut taxes in both 2001 and 2003, but revenues failed to attain even 2000 numbers until 2005. Again, I still don't see how you can prove his cuts increased revenue, when revenue dropped and only went up after spending more money. Since you got your information from Obama's plan, I'll join in and provide an excerpt:

 Tax cuts initiated in the previous decade, including those for the
wealthiest individuals, have helped drive down tax revenues to historical
lows. In particular, sweeping cuts in income and estate taxes, initially
enacted in 2001 and 2003, have reduced revenue and increased interest costs
by nearly $3.0 trillion between 2001 and 2011 (Ruffing and Horney 2011). In
2011, Federal tax receipts amounted to just 14.4 percent of GDP, far below
the postwar average of 17.7 percent. Part of this revenue shortfall is attributable
to temporary tax cuts designed to aid the economy and create jobs,
and part to the slow rebound of wages, investment income, and corporate
profits—the income base from which tax receipts are primarily derived.

Esox

02-08-2013, 09:36 PM

Actually that's not the point. I'm one of those against "'Bammer for his warmongerin" I just can't stand the damn hypocrisy! In fact, most of the times I mention the wars from the Bush administration is when I'm defending Obama being accused of being a spend thrift.
Well, sure. You need to change the subject.

Both Dubya and the Bamster were and are spendthrift warmongers.

Changing the subject and yelling "HYPOCRITE!" doesn't change those things.

bingster

02-08-2013, 09:56 PM

aboutime

02-08-2013, 10:06 PM

[QUOTE=red states rule;615293]Bing you can continue to ignore the truth and keep saying Obama is not spending us into oblivion but even the CBO fessed up and confirmed that most of us already knew

and like every government agency their projections are always on the low end and the real numbers are usually much higher[/QUOTE

The deficit is not just caused by spending. It's caused by lack of revenue. As I've explained to exhaustive measures, Obama is no more of a spendthrift than Bush was. Most of Obama'a additional spending has been to stimulate the economy (like Bush caused deficits with his tax cuts to stimulate the economy). It's just two different philosophies. But if you look at the spending graphs you'll agree with my point.

BINGSTER. Looks like all of Obama's spending to stimulate the economy HAS BEEN A TOTAL FAILURE. And you, with other people who claim to know what's always best. Have NO IDEA what you are talking about...unless somebody else convinced you to say it...as a means of saving face, and not being labeled as a RACIST for daring to disagree with the IGNORANT, PRETENDER Obama.

bingster

02-08-2013, 10:46 PM

[QUOTE=bingster;615964]

BINGSTER. Looks like all of Obama's spending to stimulate the economy HAS BEEN A TOTAL FAILURE. And you, with other people who claim to know what's always best. Have NO IDEA what you are talking about...unless somebody else convinced you to say it...as a means of saving face, and not being labeled as a RACIST for daring to disagree with the IGNORANT, PRETENDER Obama.

Have an argument or yell at yourself. Just look at a graph sometime and you'll see that his spending has done what it was supposed to do.

red states rule

02-09-2013, 06:54 AM

[QUOTE=red states rule;615293]Bing you can continue to ignore the truth and keep saying Obama is not spending us into oblivion but even the CBO fessed up and confirmed that most of us already knew

and like every government agency their projections are always on the low end and the real numbers are usually much higher[/QUOTE

The deficit is not just caused by spending. It's caused by lack of revenue. As I've explained to exhaustive measures, Obama is no more of a spendthrift than Bush was. Most of Obama'a additional spending has been to stimulate the economy (like Bush caused deficits with his tax cuts to stimulate the economy). It's just two different philosophies. But if you look at the spending graphs you'll agree with my point.

So what would tell your bank if you bounce a check? that it was not caused by spending money you do not have - just a lack of funds in your checking account?

What F'ing stimulus Bing? the US economy is worse then the day Obama took office

The only thing the "stimulus" gave us was the first credit downgrade in US history

IRS numbers show the Bush tax cuts increased revenue to the government. It is comical that libs like you spent the last 10 years bashing those tax cuts then you turn around and make most of them permanent

How in the hell is Obama going to pay for his defciits and spending? There are not enough "rich" people to attack and take their money Bing. So who is next on the class warfare hit list?

fj1200

02-09-2013, 07:04 AM

Actually FJ didn't prove anything. I'm not sure it can be proven that Bush's tax cuts had anything to do with the revenues one way or the other, because Bush SPENT SO MUCH!!! You can't cleave one item away from the other.

Sure I did, I RULE!!! :poke: Revenues and spending are two different things.

The graph is not on the 2012 economic president's report
http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/microsites/ERP_2012_Complete.pdf
be my guest and find it.

Bush cut taxes in both 2001 and 2003, but revenues failed to attain even 2000 numbers until 2005. Again, I still don't see how you can prove his cuts increased revenue, when revenue dropped and only went up after spending more money. Since you got your information from Obama's plan, I'll join in and provide an excerpt:

 Tax cuts initiated in the previous decade, including those for the
wealthiest individuals, have helped drive down tax revenues to historical
lows. In particular, sweeping cuts in income and estate taxes, initially
enacted in 2001 and 2003, have reduced revenue and increased interest costs
by nearly $3.0 trillion between 2001 and 2011 (Ruffing and Horney 2011). In
2011, Federal tax receipts amounted to just 14.4 percent of GDP, far below
the postwar average of 17.7 percent. Part of this revenue shortfall is attributable
to temporary tax cuts designed to aid the economy and create jobs,
and part to the slow rebound of wages, investment income, and corporate
profits—the income base from which tax receipts are primarily derived.

Just because someone said it doesn't make it true. The reason revenues are low in 2011 is because of recession and unemployment. But then they ignore that revenues to GDP rebounded to the historical average after the tax cuts. They also avoided talking about revenues from capital gains tax cuts which rose after the '01/'03 cut. What was that about cleaving? :)

red states rule

02-09-2013, 07:07 AM

More proof we do not have a tax problem we have a serious spending problem

http://www.usgovernmentrevenue.com/usgs_line.php?title=Total Direct Revenue&units=k&size=l&year=2000_2010&sname=US&bar=0&stack=1&col=c&legend=&source=a_i_a_i_a_a_a_a_a_a_b&spending0=4146.30_3890.10_3578.44_3672.31_4020.36_ 4243.60_4549.06_4867.55_4275.29_3337.31_4235.42

fj1200

02-09-2013, 07:18 AM

^That doesn't say what you think it says.

red states rule

02-09-2013, 07:22 AM

^That doesn't say what you think it says.

So are you saying the Bush tax cuts did NOT increase revenues? They did - by a large amount - but some think we do not have a spending problem just a lack of revenue problem

fj1200

02-09-2013, 07:29 AM

So are you saying the Bush tax cuts did NOT increase revenues? They did - by a large amount - but some think we do not have a spending problem just a lack of revenue problem

More accurately a growing GDP and declining unemployment rate increased revenues, tax rates are mostly a non-issue. But you showed a graph and made a claim about spending in a graph that specifically showed a plummeting revenue line. Don't get me wrong, Bush didn't cause it to plummet but it doesn't make your case.

Also, I think that graph shows ALL government revenue, not just Federal.

bingster

02-09-2013, 05:13 PM

[QUOTE=bingster;615964]

So what would tell your bank if you bounce a check? that it was not caused by spending money you do not have - just a lack of funds in your checking account?

What F'ing stimulus Bing? the US economy is worse then the day Obama took office

The only thing the "stimulus" gave us was the first credit downgrade in US history

IRS numbers show the Bush tax cuts increased revenue to the government. It is comical that libs like you spent the last 10 years bashing those tax cuts then you turn around and make most of them permanent

How in the hell is Obama going to pay for his defciits and spending? There are not enough "rich" people to attack and take their money Bing. So who is next on the class warfare hit list?

3 falsehoods.
I'm not going to prove this one is wrong. You either meant it as a joke, or you need to look at a newspaper, stock report, BLS, any number of things.
Republicans threatening the debt ceiling caused the downgrade.
It's absolutely arguable regarding the IRS numbers. Bush tax cuts of 2001 and 2003 lowered revenue for four years. Yes, revenue ticked up in 2005, but that's no proof that the tax cuts caused it because Bush also spent his ass off on two wars!

Spending is on the decline and that trend will continue. The economy will get better also pushing the debt down. I think he should spend more, while money is cheap, but I don't think he'll get it past Congress. Instead, they're push for more cuts which will further depress the economy as in 4q12.

red states rule

02-09-2013, 05:28 PM

[QUOTE=red states rule;616017]

3 falsehoods.
I'm not going to prove this one is wrong. You either meant it as a joke, or you need to look at a newspaper, stock report, BLS, any number of things.
Republicans threatening the debt ceiling caused the downgrade.
It's absolutely arguable regarding the IRS numbers. Bush tax cuts of 2001 and 2003 lowered revenue for four years. Yes, revenue ticked up in 2005, but that's no proof that the tax cuts caused it because Bush also spent his ass off on two wars!

Spending is on the decline and that trend will continue. The economy will get better also pushing the debt down. I think he should spend more, while money is cheap, but I don't think he'll get it past Congress. Instead, they're push for more cuts which will further depress the economy as in 4q12.

http://25.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_md79dlYnD51rc2qy0o1_500.jpg

History shows tax cuts increase revenues and the Bush tax cuts were no difference

The Obama economy is a f'ing mess and damn near everything is worse then when Obama took office. Gas prices have doubled, the debt, deficit, unemployment are all higher. A record number of people are on food stamps. The so called stimulus cost taxpayers about $700,000 per job the Obama WH says was created. We have lower consumer confidence and the labor participation number continues to head south

Bing you are a liar when you say spending is on the decline. I do not any REAL cuts - perhaps a minor slowing in the reduction in the sixe of growth but the budget and deficit continues to rise

But you continue to walk around with your fingers in your ears while yelling "I can't hear you"

fj1200

02-09-2013, 09:36 PM

3 falsehoods.
I'm not going to prove this one is wrong. You either meant it as a joke, or you need to look at a newspaper, stock report, BLS, any number of things.
Republicans threatening the debt ceiling caused the downgrade.
It's absolutely arguable regarding the IRS numbers. Bush tax cuts of 2001 and 2003 lowered revenue for four years. Yes, revenue ticked up in 2005, but that's no proof that the tax cuts caused it because Bush also spent his ass off on two wars!

Spending is on the decline and that trend will continue. The economy will get better also pushing the debt down. I think he should spend more, while money is cheap, but I don't think he'll get it past Congress. Instead, they're push for more cuts which will further depress the economy as in 4q12.

I'm pretty sure you didn't get any of those right but alas... 'tis no use.

red states rule

02-10-2013, 07:04 AM

http://media.townhall.com/Townhall/Car/b/kn021013dAPR20130205044519.jpg

bingster

02-10-2013, 02:13 PM

[QUOTE=bingster;616127]

http://25.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_md79dlYnD51rc2qy0o1_500.jpg

History shows tax cuts increase revenues and the Bush tax cuts were no difference

The Obama economy is a f'ing mess and damn near everything is worse then when Obama took office. Gas prices have doubled, the debt, deficit, unemployment are all higher. A record number of people are on food stamps. The so called stimulus cost taxpayers about $700,000 per job the Obama WH says was created. We have lower consumer confidence and the labor participation number continues to head south

Bing you are a liar when you say spending is on the decline. I do not any REAL cuts - perhaps a minor slowing in the reduction in the sixe of growth but the budget and deficit continues to rise

But you continue to walk around with your fingers in your ears while yelling "I can't hear you"

The Obama economy is yes, still a f'ing mess, but damn near nothing is worse than when Obama took office. Gas prices are not his fault. Debt and deficit are higher but the spending rate has stopped it's upward trend and as a percentage of gdp both are on a sharp downturn. Unemployment at worse, steady, if not especially better than if he didn't do the stimulus.

CBO puts job figures between 1.8 and 3.8 million jobs. His stimulus was 1/3 tax cuts. That still divides out to a lot of money per job, but not anymore than a tax cut would have amounted to. You can't think of it as direct cost per job, you have to remember the other jobs created not as a direct result of the stimulus. All figures I've seen put that figure at a higher number than the entire Bush administration of 8 years (5 or 6 million).

Remember, Obamas spending starts at the peak. The climb was all Bush.

4497

Kathianne

02-10-2013, 03:28 PM

[QUOTE=red states rule;616129]

The Obama economy is yes, still a f'ing mess, but damn near nothing is worse than when Obama took office. Gas prices are not his fault. Debt and deficit are higher but the spending rate has stopped it's upward trend and as a percentage of gdp both are on a sharp downturn. Unemployment at worse, steady, if not especially better than if he didn't do the stimulus.

CBO puts job figures between 1.8 and 3.8 million jobs. His stimulus was 1/3 tax cuts. That still divides out to a lot of money per job, but not anymore than a tax cut would have amounted to. You can't think of it as direct cost per job, you have to remember the other jobs created not as a direct result of the stimulus. All figures I've seen put that figure at a higher number than the entire Bush administration of 8 years (5 or 6 million).

Remember, Obamas spending starts at the peak. The climb was all Bush.

4497

and obamacare spending kicks in when? Oh yeah, 2014.

fj1200

02-10-2013, 05:23 PM

The Obama economy is yes, still a f'ing mess, but damn near nothing is worse than when Obama took office. Gas prices are not his fault. Debt and deficit are higher but the spending rate has stopped it's upward trend and as a percentage of gdp both are on a sharp downturn. Unemployment at worse, steady, if not especially better than if he didn't do the stimulus.

CBO puts job figures between 1.8 and 3.8 million jobs. His stimulus was 1/3 tax cuts. That still divides out to a lot of money per job, but not anymore than a tax cut would have amounted to. You can't think of it as direct cost per job, you have to remember the other jobs created not as a direct result of the stimulus. All figures I've seen put that figure at a higher number than the entire Bush administration of 8 years (5 or 6 million).

Remember, Obamas spending starts at the peak. The climb was all Bush.

4497

Incorrect, BO's stimulus bill added to that peak and TARP repayment aided in keeping it lower than it would have been. Besides, the increase was not due to Bush spending rather it was due to the recession. And BTW temporary tax cuts, which is what they were, are completely useless and are nothing but straight to debt financed.

red states rule

02-11-2013, 03:30 AM

Of course Dems deny we have a spending problem and have refused to pass a budget in the last 4 years

How the hell can you make REAL spending cuts when you do not know what you are spending money on?

With "leadership" like this on the left- get ready for more economic bad news. To Ms Pelosi I ask "WHAT F'ING SPENDING CUTS??"

[QUOTE]

Well, I think that sequestration is a bad idea all around. … The fact is, we’ve had plenty of spending cuts. … What we need is growth. We need growth with jobs. … So, again, we have to make a judgment about how do we get growth with jobs, that’s where the real revenue comes from. You don’t get it by… cutting into education, cutting back on investments in science and National Institute of Health, food safety, you name it. … So, it isn’t as much of a spending problem as it is a priorities, and that’s what a budget is, setting priorities. … Nothing brings more money to the Treasury of the United States than investments in education of the American people. … So if you recognize that, which cuts really help us and which cuts hurt our future. And cuts in education, scientific research and the rest are harmful. And they are what are affected by the sequestration. So, it is almost a false argument to say that we have a spending problem. We have a budget deficit problem.

http://hotair.com/archives/2013/02/10/pelosi-its-really-a-false-argument-to-say-we-have-a-spending-problem/

bingster

02-11-2013, 04:24 PM

bingster

02-11-2013, 04:34 PM

Incorrect, BO's stimulus bill added to that peak and TARP repayment aided in keeping it lower than it would have been. Besides, the increase was not due to Bush spending rather it was due to the recession. And BTW temporary tax cuts, which is what they were, are completely useless and are nothing but straight to debt financed.

I don't see how you can say the stimulus bill added to the peak, when it was passed in Feb 2009 and didn't all come out at once. Temporary tax cuts are effective when they are payroll cuts to the middle class because it goes right back into the economy resulting in more revenue. Here's the graph that shows dollars spent. You will see the long incline that is probably the stimulus bill and additional military spending (Afganistan "surge")

4504

fj1200

02-11-2013, 05:09 PM

I don't see how you can say the stimulus bill added to the peak, when it was passed in Feb 2009 and didn't all come out at once. Temporary tax cuts are effective when they are payroll cuts to the middle class because it goes right back into the economy resulting in more revenue. Here's the graph that shows dollars spent. You will see the long incline that is probably the stimulus bill and additional military spending (Afganistan "surge")

Because it's true, your statement was wrong. And temporary tax cuts are completely useless stimulus, they are straight to debt financing with no long term benefit.

bingster

02-11-2013, 05:19 PM

Because it's true, your statement was wrong. And temporary tax cuts are completely useless stimulus, they are straight to debt financing with no long term benefit.

Maybe the graph is wrong? I don't get it. It peaks at Jan 2009. Bill passes on Feb 2009. Spending occurs in chunks over years. How does it go back and add to the peak?

fj1200

02-12-2013, 08:06 AM

Maybe the graph is wrong? I don't get it. It peaks at Jan 2009. Bill passes on Feb 2009. Spending occurs in chunks over years. How does it go back and add to the peak?

It doesn't peak in January of '09. It is a picture of spending during the fiscal year, as it shows FY, which probably ends in October of '09. It would have been Bush's budget but for extra spending under BO.

red states rule

02-13-2013, 04:54 AM

It's 3 years, not four (unless you're counting this year) and you can lead all that you want; if the House won't follow, and they don't even follow themselves, a budget will not get done.

Obama has an offer on the table to get out of sequester, but the Republicans have given up and say the sequester will just happen. You will see a big hit on our economic numbers because virtually any cuts now will hurt the economy, and this is way too much, too ugly, and too fast.

Yea, Pelosi is making the same argument I've been making. Obama's spending wouldn't seem so bad if our economy was stronger. Cuts are going to slow the economy.

Eh, the House has passed budgets, and as far as I know R's cannot filibuster a budget in the Senate. Dems simply do not want their spending priorities on paper

As far as the sequester those "cuts" are over 10 years, any future Congress can repeal them, and we are talking a chump change in comparison to the amount of federal spending. The deficit still grows and the debt continues to soar higher

Given all the spending the Feds have done since Obama has taken office if spending was the answer to bring the US economy roaring back - we should have double digit GDP

bingster

02-13-2013, 01:29 PM

It doesn't peak in January of '09. It is a picture of spending during the fiscal year, as it shows FY, which probably ends in October of '09. It would have been Bush's budget but for extra spending under BO.

Fiscal year for 2009 starts in Oct 08, so that would be where the 2009 line starts.

fj1200

02-13-2013, 01:31 PM

Fiscal year for 2009 starts in Oct 08, so that would be where the 2009 line starts.

Correct, just as I said. It's a sum of all the spending through October '09.

bingster

02-13-2013, 01:35 PM

Eh, the House has passed budgets, and as far as I know R's cannot filibuster a budget in the Senate. Dems simply do not want their spending priorities on paper

As far as the sequester those "cuts" are over 10 years, any future Congress can repeal them, and we are talking a chump change in comparison to the amount of federal spending. The deficit still grows and the debt continues to soar higher

Given all the spending the Feds have done since Obama has taken office if spending was the answer to bring the US economy roaring back - we should have double digit GDP

Actually, Dems have always put them on paper. All of our budgets are on the white house website. Only the first one passed however.

Any dip in spending will hurt the economy. See last quarter. Most of the economy's contraction came from the cut in military spending. Now is just not the time to cut.

It will be easy to prove me wrong, the House is going to let the sequester go through. I have no faith that they will vote on anything the president provides them. The house has passed budgets that nobody wants. Nobody, not Democrats or Republicans according to the polls want draconian cuts to Medicare or Social Security. Also, Republicans are completely unwilling to cut military spending which is asinine.

bingster

02-13-2013, 01:37 PM

Correct, just as I said. It's a sum of all the spending through October '09.

Wrong! The 2009 line is actually in 2008! and the stimulus was not spent all at once. I think there's still some that hasn't been spent.

fj1200

02-13-2013, 01:45 PM

Wrong! The 2009 line is actually in 2008! and the stimulus was not spent all at once. I think there's still some that hasn't been spent.

No. The spending for FY '09 from October '08 through October '09. I'm not sure what your issue is. And I didn't say the stimulus was all spent in '09. And TARP was an '09 budget expenditure with most? repayments made in later fiscal years holding masking what otherwise would have been added to the deficit.

fj1200

02-13-2013, 01:47 PM

Actually, Dems have always put them on paper. All of our budgets are on the white house website. Only the first one passed however.

Do you mean BO's budgets that the Senate Dems unanimously voted against at times?

red states rule

02-14-2013, 02:51 AM

It's 3 years, not four (unless you're counting this year) and you can lead all that you want; if the House won't follow, and they don't even follow themselves, a budget will not get done.

Obama has an offer on the table to get out of sequester, but the Republicans have given up and say the sequester will just happen. You will see a big hit on our economic numbers because virtually any cuts now will hurt the economy, and this is way too much, too ugly, and too fast.

Yea, Pelosi is making the same argument I've been making. Obama's spending wouldn't seem so bad if our economy was stronger. Cuts are going to slow the economy.

Bing we are talking about "cuts" that total $917 billion over TEN YEARS. That is $91.7 billion out of $4 TRLLION in annual spending (Obama's so called pork laden stimulus bill cost taxpayers about one trillion)

Even with these "cuts" the deficit and dent continue on as before.

The only ones who have not offered up a budget is the Harry Reid Senate and that is by choice

And once again I ask you, if government spending is the key to economic prosperity was does the Obama "recovery" rank as the lowest after about $14 trillion in spending since Obama took office?