Australia and guns

[jimnyc]

Not sure, maybe a question for Jafar? Or someone else well versed in Australian numbers. I was under the impression that Australia being an example of a place where removing guns lowered crime. But someone posted these on FB and has me wondering if the stats are true. An interesting video as well.

http://i.imgur.com/Xk4sl.png

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/xh4oHK8Dgck" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

[jafar00]

While crime has unfortunately risen as it would have done anyway as a result of a society becoming steadily sicker from a lack of moral guidance, gun related crimes plummeted in Australia after tougher gun laws in 1996.


Background: After a 1996 firearm massacre in Tasmania in which 35 people died, Australian governments
united to remove semi-automatic and pump-action shotguns and rifles from civilian possession, as a key
component of gun law reforms.
Objective: To determine whether Australia’s 1996 major gun law reforms were associated with changes in
rates of mass firearm homicides, total firearm deaths, firearm homicides and firearm suicides, and whether
there were any apparent method substitution effects for total homicides and suicides.
Design: Observational study using official statistics. Negative binomial regression analysis of changes in
firearm death rates and comparison of trends in pre–post gun law reform firearm-related mass killings.
Setting: Australia, 1979–2003.
Main outcome measures: Changes in trends of total firearm death rates, mass fatal shooting incidents, rates
of firearm homicide, suicide and unintentional firearm deaths, and of total homicides and suicides per
100 000 population.
Results: In the 18 years before the gun law reforms, there were 13 mass shootings in Australia, and none in
the 10.5 years afterwards. Declines in firearm-related deaths before the law reforms accelerated after the
reforms for total firearm deaths (p = 0.04), firearm suicides (p = 0.007) and firearm homicides (p = 0.15), but
not for the smallest category of unintentional firearm deaths, which increased. No evidence of substitution
effect for suicides or homicides was observed. The rates per 100 000 of total firearm deaths, firearm
homicides and firearm suicides all at least doubled their existing rates of decline after the revised gun laws.
Conclusions: Australia’s 1996 gun law reforms were followed by more than a decade free of fatal mass
shootings, and accelerated declines in firearm deaths, particularly suicides. Total homicide rates followed the
same pattern. Removing large numbers of rapid-firing firearms from civilians may be an effective way of
reducing mass shootings, firearm homicides and firearm suicides.


http://tobacco.health.usyd.edu.au/assets/pdfs/Other-Research/2006InjuryPrevent.pdf

Can you tell me how many massacres there have been in Australia since 1996 and compare to how many massacres in the USA in the same period?

[tailfins]

While crime has unfortunately risen as it would have done anyway as a result of a society becoming steadily sicker from a lack of moral guidance, gun related crimes plummeted in Australia after tougher gun laws in 1996.



http://tobacco.health.usyd.edu.au/assets/pdfs/Other-Research/2006InjuryPrevent.pdf

Can you tell me how many massacres there have been in Australia since 1996 and compare to how many massacres in the USA in the same period?

By simple population numbers, one year of risk in the USA equals 15 years in Australia. Your facile analysis is reaching a Peanut Gallery level of sophistication.

[aboutime]

While crime has unfortunately risen as it would have done anyway as a result of a society becoming steadily sicker from a lack of moral guidance, gun related crimes plummeted in Australia after tougher gun laws in 1996.



http://tobacco.health.usyd.edu.au/assets/pdfs/Other-Research/2006InjuryPrevent.pdf

Can you tell me how many massacres there have been in Australia since 1996 and compare to how many massacres in the USA in the same period?

jafar. Since you obviously think, and claim to be much more highly educated than all of us here on this Forum.

Perhaps you'd like to share some Honest facts with us, when you compare the gun related crimes in Australia, with ours, here in the USA.
For instance. Tell us what the TOTAL population of OZ is, as compared to the TOTAL population of the USA.

Then...present the Honest Details...using those extremely different numbers. IF YOU DARE!

[jimnyc]

While crime has unfortunately risen as it would have done anyway as a result of a society becoming steadily sicker from a lack of moral guidance, gun related crimes plummeted in Australia after tougher gun laws in 1996.


http://tobacco.health.usyd.edu.au/assets/pdfs/Other-Research/2006InjuryPrevent.pdf

Can you tell me how many massacres there have been in Australia since 1996 and compare to how many massacres in the USA in the same period?

Did you watch the video? Gun related crimes increased overall since the bans.

Armed robberies - up SIXTY percent
Assaults with guns - up TWENTY EIGHT percent
Gun murders - up NINETEEN percent
Home invasions - up TWENTY ONE percent

Those increases are HUGE. Whether a massacre killing 20 kids in a month, or 20 separate shootings, the loss of life is the same. What matters in the end is the statistics. The problem with guns, regarding crime, has risen in the worst indicators in Australia. And these aren't steady increases that shows society getting worse, these are increases from 20-60% in the worst of crimes!! A 20% increase in murder rate is HUGE. Armed robberies being up 60%? Wow! That's an astronomical change that can pretty much be attributed to only one thing. Do you believe ALL of the criminals in Australia turned their guns in? They all got rid of them? Well, obviously not, or the above statistics wouldn't be what they are. So now we've already shown that the criminals won't turn in their guns and they won't get rid of them. We've also proven that it won't stop them from using them in the commission of a crime. Now, what do these law abiding citizens have to defend themselves with when an armed criminal attacks in their home, performs an armed robbery on them, tries to kill them? Do they just be nice and hope for the best?

[Voted4Reagan]

few Australian Crime Stats and how they Rank....


http://www.nationmaster.com/red/country/as-australia/cri-crime&all=1





<tbody>

<tbody>

<tbody>

<tbody>
Acquitted (http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/cri_acq)
1,156

[18th of 30]


Assault victims (http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/cri_ass_vic)
2.4%

[4th of 20]


Believe in police efficiency (http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/cri_bel_in_pol_eff)
76%

[4th of 17]


Bribe payers index (http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/cri_bri_pay_ind)
8.1

[2nd of 19]


Bribery victims (http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/cri_bri_vic)
0.3%

[10th of 16]


Car thefts (http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/cri_car_the)
139,094

[8th of 46]


Death penalty > Abolition date (http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/cri_dea_pen_abo_dat)
1,985

[44th of 64]


Death penalty > Abolition for ordinary crimes (http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/cri_dea_pen_abo_for_ord_cri)
1,984

[3rd of 20]


Death penalty > Last executed (http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/cri_dea_pen_las_exe)
1,967

[18th of 55]


Gun violence > Homicides > % homicides with firearms (http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/cri_gun_vio_hom_hom_wit_fir)
16.3435

[21st of 32]


Gun violence > Homicides > Firearm homicide rate > per 100,000 pop. (http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/cri_gun_vio_hom_fir_hom_rat_per_100_pop)
0.3073

[26th of 32]


Gun violence > Homicides > Non-firearm homicide rate > per 100,000 pop. (http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/cri_gun_vio_hom_non_hom_rat_per_100_pop)
1.5729

[27th of 32]


Gun violence > Homicides > Overall homicide rate > per 100,000 pop. (http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/cri_gun_vio_hom_ove_hom_rat_per_100_pop)
1.8802

[27th of 32]


Jails (http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/cri_jai)
153

[14th of 80]


Manslaughters (http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/cri_man)
296

[14th of 42]


Murders committed by youths (http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/cri_mur_com_by_you)
88

[38th of 73]


Murders committed by youths per capita (http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/cri_mur_com_by_you_per_cap)
1.6

[43rd of 57]


Murders with firearms (http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/cri_mur_wit_fir)
59

[21st of 36]


Perception of safety > Burglary (http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/cri_per_of_saf_bur)
57%

[11th of 17]


Perception of safety > Walking in dark (http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/cri_per_of_saf_wal_in_dar)
64%

[14th of 15]


Prisoners (http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/cri_pri)
22,492 prisoners

[21st of 168]


Prisoners > Female (http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/cri_pri_fem)
6.7%

[19th of 134]


Prisoners > Per capita (http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/cri_pri_per_cap)
116 per 100,000 people

[74th of 164]


Prisoners > Pre-trial detainees (http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/cri_pri_pre_tri_det)
21.1%

[104th of 143]


Prisoners > Share of prison capacity filled (http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/cri_pri_sha_of_pri_cap_fil)
105.9%

[86th of 128]


Property crime victims (http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/cri_pro_cri_vic)
13.9%

[2nd of 20]


Rape victims (http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/cri_rap_vic)
1%

[5th of 20]


Reporting to police (http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/cri_rep_to_pol)
50%

[9th of 17]


Robbery victims (http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/cri_rob_vic)
1.2%

[3rd of 20]


Sentence Length (http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/cri_sen_len)
41.8

[14th of 21]


Software piracy rate (http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/cri_sof_pir_rat)
28%

[95th of 107]


Suicide rates in ages 15-24 (http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/cri_sui_rat_in_age_15_24)
14.6 per 100,000 people

[6th of 17]


Suicide rates in ages 25-34 (http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/cri_sui_rat_in_age_25_34)
18.7 per 100,000 people

[7th of 17]


Suicide rates in ages 35-44 (http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/cri_sui_rat_in_age_35_44)
15.9 per 100,000 people

[10th of 17]


Suicide rates in ages 45-54 (http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/cri_sui_rat_in_age_45_54)
14.7 per 100,000 people

[11th of 17]


Suicide rates in ages 55-64 (http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/cri_sui_rat_in_age_55_64)
13.7 per 100,000 people

[12th of 17]


Suicide rates in ages 65-74 (http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/cri_sui_rat_in_age_65_74)
11.8 per 100,000 people

[15th of 17]


Suicide rates in ages above 75 (http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/cri_sui_rat_in_age_abo_75)
16 per 100,000 people

[12th of 17]


Total crime victims (http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/cri_tot_cri_vic)
30.1%

[1st of 20]


United States extradition treaties > Citation (http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/cri_uni_sta_ext_tre_cit)
27 UST 957; TIAS 8234
1736 UNTS 344


United States extradition treaties > Date signed (http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/cri_uni_sta_ext_tre_dat_sig)
May 14, 1974
September 4, 1990


United States extradition treaties > Entered into force (http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/cri_uni_sta_ext_tre_ent_int_for)
May 8, 1976
December 21, 1992


Unpaid diplomatic parking fines (http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/cri_unp_dip_par_fin)
0

[130th of 143]

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SOURCES: The Eighth United Nations Survey on Crime Trends and the Operations of Criminal Justice Systems (2002) (United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, Centre for International Crime Prevention); UNICRI (United Nations Interregional Crime and Justice Research Institute). 2002. Correspondence on data on crime victims. March. Turin; UN International Crime Victims' Survey; Transparency International; The Eighth United Nations Survey on Crime Trends and the Operations of Criminal Justice Systems (2002) (United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, Centre for International Crime Prevention); Last updated: 01/04/03; Wikipedia: Gun violence (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gun_violence) ; The Eighth United Nations Survey on Crime Trends and the Operations of Criminal Justice Systems (2002) (United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, Centre for International Crime Prevention); World Health Organization: World report on violence and health (http://whqlibdoc.who.int/hq/2002/9241545615.pdf), 2002; International Centre for Prison Studies (http://www.prisonstudies.org/) - World Prison Brief; Fifth Annual BSA and IDC Global Software Piracy Study (http://global.bsa.org/idcglobalstudy2007/); GECD Society at a Glance 2001, Statistical Annex Table D3; Wikipedia: List of United States extradition treaties (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_extradition_treaties) ; Cultures of Corruption: Evidence from Diplomatic Parking Tickets Ray Fisman Edward Miguel Columbia University and NBER University of California, Berkeley and NBER (http://www2.gsb.columbia.edu%2Ffaculty%2Frfisman%2Fparkin g_20july06_RF.pdf&ei=SX9pSMrXDYGasAOH9bCwDQ&usg=AFQjCNHNnsdblYF5y2kUAlozTomhTZ9upA&sig2=jugxQXS4cHomTQ1Tx6rZFg) 2006 ALTERNATIVE NAMES: Australia, Commonwealth of Australia Interesting facts on Australian Crime



One in every three Australians (http://www.nationmaster.com/country/as) is a victim of crime. (http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/cri_tot_cri_vic)



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[Voted4Reagan]

In AUSTRALIA... ONE IN THREE PEOPLE IS A VICTIM OF CRIME ANNUALLY...

THE WORST PER-CAPITA RECORD IN THE WORLD....


30.1% of all people are annual victims


Your Laws are a Failure Jafar... The Gun Laws are allowing the Sheep to be Slaughtered

[jafar00]

In AUSTRALIA... ONE IN THREE PEOPLE IS A VICTIM OF CRIME ANNUALLY...

THE WORST PER-CAPITA RECORD IN THE WORLD....


30.1% of all people are annual victims


Your Laws are a Failure Jafar... The Gun Laws are allowing the Sheep to be Slaughtered

Sure the crime rate in Australia is not so low, but the risk of being shot is minimal. There are some parts of Sydney I wouldn't live in. I pay extra to rent a place in a safer, quieter area. Higher crime is a symptom of a sick society and no amount of guns is going to fix that.

Ok, so how many little children (under University age) have been killed in school massacres in Australia vs the US? I'll help you out. The answer is nil. There have been no mass shootings since tougher gun laws were enacted in fact. The laws are a resounding success in fact.

[aboutime]

Sure the crime rate in Australia is not so low, but the risk of being shot is minimal. There are some parts of Sydney I wouldn't live in. I pay extra to rent a place in a safer, quieter area. Higher crime is a symptom of a sick society and no amount of guns is going to fix that.

Ok, so how many little children (under University age) have been killed in school massacres in Australia vs the US? I'll help you out. The answer is nil. There have been no mass shootings since tougher gun laws were enacted in fact. The laws are a resounding success in fact.


Poor jafar. He honestly thinks. If he avoids answering some questions from some of us. They....DO NOT EXIST. So he has no responsibility to bother, or be seen as admitting if he answers honestly....it would just be another Defensive Lie.

[Missileman]

The laws are a resounding success in fact.

You call a 69% increase in armed robberies, 28% increase in assaults w/guns, 19% increase in murders w/guns, and 21% increase in home invasions a resounding success? That's like saying the Titanic made a successful trip to the ocean floor.

[Tyr-Ziu Saxnot]

Sure the crime rate in Australia is not so low, but the risk of being shot is minimal. There are some parts of Sydney I wouldn't live in. I pay extra to rent a place in a safer, quieter area. Higher crime is a symptom of a sick society and no amount of guns is going to fix that.

Ok, so how many little children (under University age) have been killed in school massacres in Australia vs the US? I'll help you out. The answer is nil. There have been no mass shootings since tougher gun laws were enacted in fact. The laws are a resounding success in fact.

And if the government there came out this week declaring no more religious worship there of any religion, what would or could you do Jafar?? Would you fight them with clubs and brooms or meekly obey and stop worshipping Allah? When the men there gave up their guns they became serfs subject to the whims of that big master!
Or is it true that the Islamists were not that gullible and did not turn theirs in and the government turned a blind eye to it? Giving them the usual " free pass" that they always seem to get!--Tyr

[aboutime]

You call a 69% increase in armed robberies, 28% increase in assaults w/guns, 19% increase in murders w/guns, and 21% increase in home invasions a resounding success? That's like saying the Titanic made a successful trip to the ocean floor.


Missileman. Jafar is nothing but a rhetorical, semantics kinda guy. Just like Obama. All talk. No real Honesty, or Substance.

Jafar and Obama could be twins. They keep talking, and the perpetually uneducated, untrainable, easily convinced, gullible people among us ALWAYS BELIEVE what jafar, and Obama say. Because they are not SMART ENOUGH to learn, or discover how they have been so easily FOOLED.

[jafar00]

Poor jafar. He honestly thinks. If he avoids answering some questions from some of us. They....DO NOT EXIST. So he has no responsibility to bother, or be seen as admitting if he answers honestly....it would just be another Defensive Lie.

Did I miss something?


You call a 69% increase in armed robberies, 28% increase in assaults w/guns, 19% increase in murders w/guns, and 21% increase in home invasions a resounding success? That's like saying the Titanic made a successful trip to the ocean floor.

Crime was already rising anyway. It's not good, but it's better than packing a pistol every time I go shopping.


And if the government there came out this week declaring no more religious worship there of any religion, what would or could you do Jafar?? Would you fight them with clubs and brooms or meekly obey and stop worshipping Allah? When the men there gave up their guns they became serfs subject to the whims of that big master!
Or is it true that the Islamists were not that gullible and did not turn theirs in and the government turned a blind eye to it? Giving them the usual " free pass" that they always seem to get!--Tyr

So you would agree with the Muslims and other minorities to heavily arm themselves Tyr? We are known for defending ourselves, to the death if need be. Self defence is a right of our religion. :p

If the Government banned all worship (unlikely), I would practise in private or emigrate.

[Tyr-Ziu Saxnot]

Did I miss something?



Crime was already rising anyway. It's not good, but it's better than packing a pistol every time I go shopping.



So you would agree with the Muslims and other minorities to heavily arm themselves Tyr? We are known for defending ourselves, to the death if need be. Self defence is a right of our religion. :p

If the Government banned all worship (unlikely), I would practise in private or emigrate.

Its not for me to say what the muslims should do about guns. I know they as a group there kept far more guns in hiding than any other group. I even said so. I also know the government knows that and turned a blind eye to it as well. Giving the usual "pass" rather than risk angering the muslim! And that is why they will take over Australia too. When the government radically changes in their favor the armed citizens will defend the government change against the unarmed non-muslim protesters --(the native population)! You know that and it gladdens your heart. We Patriotic Americans will fight before we foolishly give up our guns but we will give up all our bullets, AT SUPER SONIC SPEED. EVEN THEN WE THAT HAVE BLADED WEAPONS WILL NOT GIVE UP OUR EMPTY GUNS. You'd do well to study the Alamo and how true patriots fought and died. We that were educated before the Education System here was destroyed learn that Liberty has to be defended and that defense means sacrificing ones life for the future of the nation and that of one's family!
Myself, I would have no problem slaying any number of enemy( if possible) to insure the safety of my kids and grandkids! Some of us understand the concept of kill or be enslaved all too well! Past generations understood it even better!! Prime example was the men and women that gave us victory in WW2.. -Tyr

[gabosaurus]

John Howard, a conservative PM who was a major ally of GW Bush, believes gun control has worked in Australia.
I am guessing he doesn't read Newsmax, though. :rolleyes:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2012/08/02/did-gun-control-work-in-australia/

[tailfins]

And if the government there came out this week declaring no more religious worship there of any religion, what would or could you do Jafar?? Would you fight them with clubs and brooms or meekly obey and stop worshipping Allah? When the men there gave up their guns they became serfs subject to the whims of that big master!
Or is it true that the Islamists were not that gullible and did not turn theirs in and the government turned a blind eye to it? Giving them the usual " free pass" that they always seem to get!--Tyr

Your pea shooter would be no match for a drone. I am on the same side of the gun debate as you for a different reason. Some people enjoy firearms as a hobby just like skiiing, old cars, or basketball. Just because I don't play basketball doesn't mean I support restrictions and exorbitant taxes on basketballs. The same principal applies to firearms. If people want to do Mythbusters reenactments, why should I care?


So how many artillery shells does it take to make a silicone mannequin disintegrate?

[jimnyc]

Crime was already rising anyway. It's not good, but it's better than packing a pistol every time I go shopping.


There is a direct relation between the guns being taken away and then the rise in gun crimes. If you're going to say "crime was already rising" and then infer that this is just status quo, then you are acknowledging that taking the guns away hasn't done anything - which crime statistics show is in fact the case.

IF they had the desired outcome, gun stats would be lowering, and they aren't. That's really the bottom line and can't be twisted. The bottom line is crime. HAS crime, with guns, lowered as a result of the ban. The answer is CLEARLY no.

People can claim all they like that it's working, or that the reason crime is increasing is a part of the decline of society - but the removal of guns has only lead to gun crimes increasing. There's really now other way to explain away such huge increases in the statistics.

[aboutime]

There is a direct relation between the guns being taken away and then the rise in gun crimes. If you're going to say "crime was already rising" and then infer that this is just status quo, then you are acknowledging that taking the guns away hasn't done anything - which crime statistics show is in fact the case.

IF they had the desired outcome, gun stats would be lowering, and they aren't. That's really the bottom line and can't be twisted. The bottom line is crime. HAS crime, with guns, lowered as a result of the ban. The answer is CLEARLY no.

People can claim all they like that it's working, or that the reason crime is increasing is a part of the decline of society - but the removal of guns has only lead to gun crimes increasing. There's really now other way to explain away such huge increases in the statistics.



jimnyc. Jafar has a programmed response for everything. Like so many of our Uneducated Liberal, Democrat, Obama fans here at home. Jafar has been conditioned, trained, and sworn to always create more excuses...which I call lies, to defend the Un-defendable.

[Tyr-Ziu Saxnot]

Your pea shooter would be no match for a drone. I am on the same side of the gun debate as you for a different reason. Some people enjoy firearms as a hobby just like skiiing, old cars, or basketball. Just because I don't play basketball doesn't mean I support restrictions and exorbitant taxes on basketballs. The same principal applies to firearms. If people want to do Mythbusters reenactments, why should I care?


So how many artillery shells does it take to make a silicone mannequin disintegrate?

Match or not we use what we have, not what we wish we had!! The Brits came here as an established army with proper munitions yet they left defeated. A big part of that defeat was the Spirit of which the revolutionary soldiers
had and the knowledge that their cause was a just one! Never underestimate that Spirit! In WW2 the Japs had the Zero, did we say ,hell lets give up , they have the better, faster plane? No, we made do with what we had..
Nobody said it would be a cakewalk my friend. Nothing is guaranteed in life .. One fights because its the right thing to do , not because victory is insured but because not fighting back is completely dishonorable and cowardly!-Tyr