Some Climate Scientists Trying to Connect Hurricane Sandy With Global Warming

[red states rule]

I knew this would happen, and damn I found a link

Like libs, enviro wackos never miss a chance to advance their crackpot aganda





Frankenstorm: Has Climate Change Created A Monster?


It was not a good year for people, weather and climate. The winter was strangely warm in many places and the summer ridiculously hot. As a large fraction of the country suffered through extreme or even extraordinary drought many folks naturally wondered, "Is this climate change?" Then along came a presidential election in which the words "climate change" disappeared from the dialogue. Now, just a week or so before voting day, the convergence of westbound Hurricane Sandy with a eastbound cold front is creating a massive storm, a Frankenstorm even, that is threatening millions of Americans. Weird weather is making yet another appearance in our lives and once again we ask, "Is this climate change?"

The hyper-charged political landscape we are crossing now creates its own sparks when trying to answer that question. In a world looking for "wake-up calls" and "smoking guns," how do scientists address the thorny issue of attribution? Did anthropogenic climate change cause the storm that rained out your picnic yesterday? Is it causing the terrifying storm crawling up the East Coast now? There are deep, powerful and potent issues here that touch on both science and the relationship between science and politics.

Let's start with the science.

For years, most climate scientists would say it's impossible to link an individual weather event with climate change. That, in fact, is the difference between weather and climate. Climate is all about long-term trends — not the 5-day forecast.

Recently, however, some researchers have taken the issue of attribution seriously (https://www2.ucar.edu/atmosnews/attribution/doping-atmosphere). Using a variety of techniques, they are attempting to quantify the role human-driven climate change plays in particular events. This is science at the bleeding edge, where framing their questions correctly so that they might lead to meaningful answers is still a hot issue.

Researchers (https://www2.ucar.edu/atmosnews/attribution/extreme-weather-forensics) like Randall Dole of NOAA, for example, might ask what percentage of an extreme event's magnitude came from a changing climate. Peter Stott of the UK Met Office frames the question differently. He looks at the odds for a given extreme weather event to occur given human-driven climate change. Kevin Trenberth of NCAR takes a third view, asking: Given a changed background climate, how should we expect weather to change?

All of these different perspectives (sometimes framed as "Weather on Steroids (https://www2.ucar.edu/atmosnews/attribution/steroids-baseball-climate-change)") have led to new quantitative explorations of climate change's role in what is happening now, not 30 years in the future. In an early example of attribution science Peter Stott and colleagues took on the extraordinary heat waves that struck Europe in 2003 (killing thousands). Their conclusion (http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v432/n7017/abs/nature03089.html)?
"...we estimate it is very likely (confidence level >90%) that human influence has at least doubled the risk of a heat wave exceeding this threshold magnitude."


http://www.npr.org/blogs/13.7/2012/10/28/163812770/hurricane-csi-frankenstorm-sandy-and-climate-change?ft=1&f=1001

[aboutime]

So....How much Money does AL GORE expect to make on this SANDY storm, before he chokes on his own PUKE?

[red states rule]

So....How much Money does AL GORE expect to make on this SANDY storm, before he chokes on his own PUKE?

How many carbon credits will he try to sell on Al Gore TV during the storm coverage? :laugh2:

[aboutime]

How many carbon credits will he try to sell on Al Gore TV during the storm coverage? :laugh2:


He would have to sell himself. Al Gore is one...Massive CARBON FOOTPRINT pimple on the Backside of Humanity.

[red states rule]

He would have to sell himself. Al Gore is one...Massive CARBON FOOTPRINT pimple on the Backside of Humanity.

http://cdn.motinetwork.net/motifake.com/image/demotivational-poster/0911/global-warming-protests-funny-humor-climate-change-hoax-prot-demotivational-poster-1258084747.jpg

[jafar00]

http://cdn.motinetwork.net/motifake.com/image/demotivational-poster/0911/global-warming-protests-funny-humor-climate-change-hoax-prot-demotivational-poster-1258084747.jpg

Actually, global warming helped Europe's last winter to be extremely cold. It's causing wind and water currents to change.

[Tyr-Ziu Saxnot]

Actually, global warming helped Europe's last winter to be extremely cold. It's causing wind and water currents to change.

Global warming is a scam created to help advance a political agenda. Its actually going to get cooler. Besides warming is to be feared less than is cooling. Warming could give two growing seasons for food crops each year, wheras cooling could easily severely limit or even stop us from having one! As usual the libs and other fools have it assbackwards! For they cry the warming is a great danger when the reverse is true. -Tyr

[007]

Weather patterns have always varied.
cooler and warmer cycles lasting hundreds if not thousands of years.
The much talked about desication of sub Saharan Africa has been in reverse these past decades.

[red states rule]

Global warming is a scam created to help advance a political agenda. Its actually going to get cooler. Besides warming is to be feared less than is cooling. Warming could give two growing seasons for food crops each year, wheras cooling could easily severely limit or even stop us from having one! As usual the libs and other fools have it assbackwards! For they cry the warming is a great danger when the reverse is true. -Tyr

During massive snow storms the global warming kooks give the snarky response - weather is not climate

But during heat waves and storms like Sandy "prove" climate change is real

That is why they renamed global warming climate change. That way any weather they can use or dismiss any weather to advance their crackpot agenda

[Robert A Whit]

During massive snow storms the global warming kooks give the snarky response - weather is not climate

But during heat waves and storms like Sandy "prove" climate change is real

That is why they renamed global warming climate change. That way any weather they can use or dismiss any weather to advance their crackpot agenda

When Democrats claimed that Dr. Richard Lindzen was on the payroll of Exxon, I decided to contact him. Hoping but not certain that he might write back.

Then he replied. No, he is not on their payroll. His check comes from MIT.
He still believes that while some warming can be blamed on humans, the amount is so slight as to be ignored.

Anyway, he has published many papers and was on the panels for the IOCC I think it is called. He does not agree with their conclusions and of course is despised by Democrats and their ilk.

He was kind enough to e mail me his most important papers on climate.

To change the climate of the entire planet is a gigantic undertaking and of course some average temperatures is not climate. It has an influence on local weather yet not for climate is how I believe it is explained. Richard cites mean temperatures and rejects averages. He believes the key to this is the tropics.

[007]

Actually, global warming helped Europe's last winter to be extremely cold. It's causing wind and water currents to change.
That's a THEORY not a proven fact.
Global warming is nothing more than a belief in a story you were told.
much as is Islam, Judaism , Christianity, Hinduism etc etc.
Nothing is proven, it is not real.

[DragonStryk72]

I knew this would happen, and damn I found a link

Like libs, enviro wackos never miss a chance to advance their crackpot aganda






Okay, first off it wasn't "a monster". It was a category 1 hurricane, the weakest type you can get. Now I understand the New England folks aren't used to having these. But they're still along a coastline, so it happens from time to time. Ugh, even if Climate change exists, it doesn't mean this was anything other than a normal storm during the normal time of year (here in VA referred to as "hurricane season". Yes, it's that regular) for these storms. The only difference was that it dumped rain north of its usual track, and it was colder than it otherwise would've been.

[Robert A Whit]

I saw photos of the subway in NYC flooded pretty bad but still it does not mean a storm in a local area means the entire globe is going through major climate changes.

Bear in mind the enormous size of Earth and that globally this was not that much of a deal.

I suspect that in parts of Asia, this is a small event.

[Gaffer]

Okay, first off it wasn't "a monster". It was a category 1 hurricane, the weakest type you can get. Now I understand the New England folks aren't used to having these. But they're still along a coastline, so it happens from time to time. Ugh, even if Climate change exists, it doesn't mean this was anything other than a normal storm during the normal time of year (here in VA referred to as "hurricane season". Yes, it's that regular) for these storms. The only difference was that it dumped rain north of its usual track, and it was colder than it otherwise would've been.

What made it a monster was the combining with a noreaster coming out of the north. By itself it would have been a normal cat 1.

[Anton Chigurh]

And we should really believe everything they say, since they were SO right about snow being a "thing of the past" back in March 2000.

Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past - Environment - The Independent (http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/snowfalls-are-now-just-a-thing-of-the-past-724017.html)


Britain's winter ends tomorrow with further indications of a striking environmental change: snow is starting to disappear from our lives.

Sledges, snowmen, snowballs and the excitement of waking to find that the stuff has settled outside are all a rapidly diminishing part of Britain's culture, as warmer winters - which scientists are attributing to global climate change - produce not only fewer white Christmases, but fewer white Januaries and Februaries.

The first two months of 2000 were virtually free of significant snowfall in much of lowland Britain, and December brought only moderate snowfall in the South-east. It is the continuation of a trend that has been increasingly visible in the past 15 years: in the south of England, for instance, from 1970 to 1995 snow and sleet fell for an average of 3.7 days, while from 1988 to 1995 the average was 0.7 days. London's last substantial snowfall was in February 1991.

Global warming, the heating of the atmosphere by increased amounts of industrial gases, is now accepted as a reality by the international community. Average temperatures in Britain were nearly 0.6C higher in the Nineties than in 1960-90, and it is estimated that they will increase by 0.2C every decade over the coming century. Eight of the 10 hottest years on record occurred in the Nineties.

However, the warming is so far manifesting itself more in winters which are less cold than in much hotter summers. According to Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia, within a few years winter snowfall will become "a very rare and exciting event".

"Children just aren't going to know what snow is," he said.Understand, this is Dr. David Viner, the "hide the decline" guy himself, of the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia. You know, the home of climategate?

The entire "climate change" narrative is just a massive hoax.

[jafar00]

Global warming is a scam created to help advance a political agenda. Its actually going to get cooler. Besides warming is to be feared less than is cooling. Warming could give two growing seasons for food crops each year, wheras cooling could easily severely limit or even stop us from having one! As usual the libs and other fools have it assbackwards! For they cry the warming is a great danger when the reverse is true. -Tyr

Well, I experienced the weakened Gulf Stream first hand in Latvia last year. -30C is a bit chilly. ;)