Do you believe the jobs numbers?

[SassyLady]

Apparently there are a few people who don't believe them.


NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- The big drop in the unemployment rate a month before the presidential election brought cries of disbelief and conspiracy theories from Jack Welch and other critics of the Obama administration Friday. But the Labor Department was quick to dismiss such claims.
"Unbelievable jobs numbers..these Chicago guys will do anything..can't debate so change numbers," tweeted Welch (https://twitter.com/jack_welch), the former CEO of General Electric (GE (http://money.cnn.com/quote/quote.html?symb=GE&source=story_quote_link), Fortune 500 (http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/fortune500/2012/snapshots/170.html?iid=EL)).

http://money.cnn.com/2012/10/05/news/economy/welch-unemployment-rate/index.html


Oh, look, Gabby .... I found this story at CNN ... right wing or left wing source?

[red states rule]

So 180,000 jobs are added and the unemployment rate drops by .3%? Total BS Sassy

The rate dropped due to people giving up looking for work in the Obama economy and many taking PART TIME or TEMP jobs for the upcoming holday season

In Obama's wolrd (and the world of Obama lovers like Gabby) if the 10 milion or so that are still looking for work would just give up - Obama could tell the folks the unemployment rate is now ZERO!!!!

They would buy it and the liberal media would sell it and "report" how Mitt would cause the now noexistent unemployment rate to shoot back up

[mundame]

I don't know whether I believe the numbers or not. If they revise them a lot upward two months from now, that will be interesting..........

I think it's a good idea to be skeptical about this sort of thing.

[Tyr-Ziu Saxnot]

Apparently there are a few people who don't believe them.



Oh, look, Gabby .... I found this story at CNN ... right wing or left wing source?

Perfectly timed to give obama a desperately need bump after his extremely poor debate performance.

The real unemploymemt rate is a tad over 10%. They fudge the numbers as a propaganda action designed to foolthe stupid and gullible people in our nation. The sad part is that their are tens of millions of them, most vote Dem.. -Tyr

[cadet]

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

[glockmail]

I think a better question is, is the reported number the important number? The reported figure doesn't include the number of people that have stopped looking for work, are long-term unemployed or are underemployed. Add in those and the real number is nearly 15%.

[fj1200]

I think a better question is, is the reported number the important number? The reported figure doesn't include the number of people that have stopped looking for work, are long-term unemployed or are underemployed. Add in those and the real number is nearly 15%.

U-6 (http://portalseven.com/employment/unemployment_rate_u6.jsp) is also falling.

http://chart.apis.google.com/chart?chs=600x300&cht=ls&chco=B22222&chf=c,lg,45,FFFFFF,0,76A4FB,0.75|bg,s,EFEFEF&chd=t:7.1,7.2,7.1,6.9,7.1,7.0,7.0,7.1,7.0,6.8,7.1, 6.9,7.3,7.4,7.3,7.4,7.5,7.9,7.8,8.1,8.7,9.3,9.4,9. 6,9.5,9.5,9.4,9.7,9.5,9.5,9.6,9.6,9.6,9.6,9.7,9.8, 10.0,10.2,10.0,10.2,10.1,10.3,10.3,10.1,10.4,10.2, 10.0,9.8,9.9,9.7,10.0,9.6,9.6,9.5,9.5,9.4,9.4,9.7, 9.4,9.2,9.3,9.3,9.1,8.9,8.9,9.0,8.8,8.9,9.0,8.7,8. 7,8.6,8.4,8.4,8.2,8.1,8.2,8.4,8.5,8.4,8.0,8.2,8.1, 7.9,8.4,8.2,8.0,8.2,8.2,8.3,8.4,8.4,8.4,8.4,8.4,8. 8,9.2,9.0,9.1,9.2,9.7,10.1,10.5,10.8,11.1,11.8,12. 7,13.5,14.2,15.1,15.7,15.8,16.4,16.5,16.5,16.7,16. 8,17.2,17.1,17.1,16.7,16.9,16.9,17.0,16.6,16.5,16. 5,16.6,16.9,16.8,16.9,16.6,16.1,15.9,15.7,15.9,15. 8,16.2,16.1,16.2,16.4,16.0,15.6,15.2,15.1,14.9,14. 5,14.5,14.8,14.9,15.0,14.7,14.7,-1,-1,-1&chds=-0,20&chg=7.6923076923076925,10,7.0,0,0&chbh=r,0.5,1.5&chxt=x,y,r&chxl=0:|||||||||||2001|||||||||||||||||||||2003||| ||||||||||||||||||2005|||||||||||||||||||||2007||| ||||||||||||||||||2009|||||||||||||||||||||2011||| ||||||||||||||||||||1:|0|2|4|6|8|10|12|14|16|18|20 |2:|0|2|4|6|8|10|12|14|16|18|20

Not to say that BO and his policies are effective of course.

[Abbey Marie]

I'm expecting gas prices to (conveniently) fall in the next couple of weeks as well. :rolleyes:

[aboutime]

I do believe. Most all of us here on this forum are fairly cynical, and kind of familiar with the Obama/Democrat tactics.

Especially in cases like this where ANY numbers from the Obama/Democrat side of the aisle can, and should always be questionable.

But then. If you remember what the intent of Obama and the Democrats has always been. Taking full advantage of the LESSER intelligence of those 55 million Americans who so foolishly fell for the Obama lies in 2008. Why would anyone dare to believe such numbers from Disney FANTASYLAND sources like the DNC Headquarters, run by the known Liar Debbie WASSERNAME Schultz, who is in competition with Obama for the actual SCORING of Recorded LIES.?

[mundame]

I think a better question is, is the reported number the important number? The reported figure doesn't include the number of people that have stopped looking for work, are long-term unemployed or are underemployed. Add in those and the real number is nearly 15%.


What glockmail said. The numbers are jimmied to start with; and they keep revising them for months after, usually in a bad way. Funny they don't start out that way.

I suppose if it had gone up to 8.5 we would all have believed it, Word of God, but I don't know -- Europe and Asia are all going down, and we're going up somehow? Very odd.

[mundame]

I'm expecting gas prices to (conveniently) fall in the next couple of weeks as well. :rolleyes:


The three magic numbers for Obama, I read, are that the stock market has to be over 12,000, check;

Unemployment has to be 8% or lower and falling, check;

And gas has to be under $4. The more under the better.

[Robert A Whit]

Perfectly timed to give obama a desperately need bump after his extremely poor debate performance.

The real unemploymemt rate is a tad over 10%. They fudge the numbers as a propaganda action designed to foolthe stupid and gullible people in our nation. The sad part is that their are tens of millions of them, most vote Dem.. -Tyr

I think I am right on this, feel free to correct. I believe that per U6, the TRUE figure, it is around 14 percent. Liars figure so they get to report it at a mere 7.8 percent.

What happens to the business owner who shuts down?

He is just as unemployeed as that teacher that got her pink slip. Yet she is counted, he is not counted. Funny math.

Sorry since I HAD NOT started at the top so had not seen that great graph of U6. It is proof I am accurate though.

Take the guy who picks peaches. Does he get added when he is fired? No he does not get counted. They treat farm labor like the red headed step child.

They treat people like me poorly. When we give up trying to sell homes, they simply ignore us.

[aboutime]

The three magic numbers for Obama, I read, are that the stock market has to be over 12,000, check;

Unemployment has to be 8% or lower and falling, check;

And gas has to be under $4. The more under the better.



​Thanks so much mundame. You have just verified, or authorized, and agreed that LIARS are more successful at fooling people like you with PHONY, DRUMMED-UP NUMBERS.

[fj1200]

I think I am right on this, feel free to correct. I believe that per U6, the TRUE figure, it is around 14 percent. Liars figure so they get to report it at a mere 7.8 percent.

What happens to the business owner who shuts down?

He is just as unemployeed as that teacher that got her pink slip. Yet she is counted, he is not counted. Funny math.

Sorry since I HAD NOT started at the top so had not seen that great graph of U6. It is proof I am accurate though.

Take the guy who picks peaches. Does he get added when he is fired? No he does not get counted. They treat farm labor like the red headed step child.

They treat people like me poorly. When we give up trying to sell homes, they simply ignore us.

U-6 is always higher by definition and U-3 has always been quoted, it's not a conspiracy. But correct, the spread between the two hasn't been this high in a long time and is the true mark of a poor recovery.

And the business owner is still counted as he is looking for work, he just might not be eligible for unemployment.

[gabosaurus]

Oh, look, Gabby .... I found this story at CNN ... right wing or left wing source?

I've been had! :cheers2:

The jobs figure has zero to do with the effectiveness of the president. Same with gas prices. It's a spin number.

[fj1200]

I've been had! :cheers2:

The jobs figure has zero to do with the effectiveness of the president. Same with gas prices. It's a spin number.

It has to do with the effectiveness of his policies, which are abhorrent err, not good. This recovery has lagged when compared to other recoveries.

[Robert A Whit]

U-6 is always higher by definition and U-3 has always been quoted, it's not a conspiracy. But correct, the spread between the two hasn't been this high in a long time and is the true mark of a poor recovery.

And the business owner is still counted as he is looking for work, he just might not be eligible for unemployment.

There was no hint in my post it is a conspiracy. I don't believe it is. I agree that the current wide divergence is proof that the economy still sucks. Growth in the GDP would be much stronger if the lower 7.8% figure meant much. I like the rate going lower. But am not fooled that any of this was due to something done by Obama. He has no levers of power to cause such changes. It takes not only him but the entire congress. Obama brays the republicans stop him. Thus evading credit for things he claims he did.

How can they find business owners who lost companies? Can you direct me to your source?

[Robert A Whit]

I've been had! :cheers2:

The jobs figure has zero to do with the effectiveness of the president. Same with gas prices. It's a spin number.

Time for Obama then to stop bragging he created jobs. Notice he refuses to discuss U6. Matter of fact, it is those in his group who he claims account for the much higher figures of U6.

Democrats only blame republicans for gas prices going up.

Gasoline would be cheaper had he showed the world any sign he would do all he can to obtain more crude in our own area of influence. Buying more oil from say Venezuela or the Sauidis only makes them grin more.

ANWR should be drilled.
We know the oil is there.
This nation ought to be an a crash course to get more oil. Say what you will, but when any supply ramps way up, prices fall.

Lower costs of gasoiline and crude lead to a better economy. In any country.

[fj1200]

There was no hint in my post it is a conspiracy. I don't believe it is. I agree that the current wide divergence is proof that the economy still sucks. Growth in the GDP would be much stronger if the lower 7.8% figure meant much. I like the rate going lower. But am not fooled that any of this was due to something done by Obama. He has no levers of power to cause such changes. It takes not only him but the entire congress. Obama brays the republicans stop him. Thus evading credit for things he claims he did.

How can they find business owners who lost companies? Can you direct me to your source?

The OP is based on conspiracy as are half the posts in this thread.

And business owners, or former in this case, are included in the monthly household survey (http://www.bls.gov/cps/) just like anyone else.

The Current Population Survey (CPS) is a monthly survey of households conducted by the Bureau of Census for the Bureau of Labor Statistics. It provides a comprehensive body of data on the labor force (http://www.bls.gov/cps/lfcharacteristics.htm#laborforce), employment (http://www.bls.gov/cps/lfcharacteristics.htm#emp), unemployment (http://www.bls.gov/cps/lfcharacteristics.htm#unemp), persons not in the labor force (http://www.bls.gov/cps/lfcharacteristics.htm#nlf), hours of work (http://www.bls.gov/cps/lfcharacteristics.htm#hours), earnings (http://www.bls.gov/cps/earnings.htm), and otherdemographic (http://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) and labor force characteristics (http://www.bls.gov/cps/lfcharacteristics.htm).

[mundame]

I've been had! :cheers2:

The jobs figure has zero to do with the effectiveness of the president. Same with gas prices. It's a spin number.


I'm inclined to agree with you, though the Romney campaign is pushing hard on the economy as a bad thing Obama has done. However, unless the government actually fiddles the figures and puts pressure on oil executives, the prez has nothing to do, surely, with either the stockmarket, the gas prices, or unemployment.

However, the article I read early in the campaign season said Obama would win if those numbers were as I stated above, because a lot of people do blame presidents. So I've been watching all three numbers with interest.

Right now the numbers are all in Obama's favor; but the polls are all turning Romney!

[Kathianne]

I'm inclined to agree with you, though the Romney campaign is pushing hard on the economy as a bad thing Obama has done. However, unless the government actually fiddles the figures and puts pressure on oil executives, the prez has nothing to do, surely, with either the stockmarket, the gas prices, or unemployment.

However, the article I read early in the campaign season said Obama would win if those numbers were as I stated above, because a lot of people do blame presidents. So I've been watching all three numbers with interest.

Right now the numbers are all in Obama's favor; but the polls are all turning Romney!

Indeed:

http://hotair.com/archives/2012/10/08/pew-poll-romney-erases-eight-point-deficit-now-leads-by-four-among-likely-voters/


From a 51/43 lead for O last month to a 49/45 lead for Mitt now. Remember when the media said the debates won’t matter?


Most exciting poll (http://www.people-press.org/2012/10/08/romneys-strong-debate-performance-erases-obamas-lead/1/) of the last year? Or most exciting poll of the last four years?

Romney now ties Obama in being regarded as a strong leader and runs virtually even with the president in willingness to work with leaders of the other party. And by a 47% to 40% margin, voters pick Romney as the candidate who has new ideas…
Romney has made progress on the issues. He and Obama now run about even on dealing with health care, Medicare, foreign policy and taxes. Obama led on most of these issues by significant margins in September. Romney also holds a significant 49% to 41% advantage on improving the job situation, despite the fact that most of the interviewing was conducted after the October jobs report, which showed the unemployment rate falling below 8%…
By a 37% to 24% margin, more swing voters say Romney would improve the job situation. Swing voters favor Romney on the deficit by a two-to-one (41% vs. 20%) margin.
We’ve come a long, long way when the avatar of Hopenchange is a distant second on the question of which candidate represents “new ideas.” The polling on jobs is significant too, not only on its own terms but because some of this data was compiled over the weekend, after the news about Friday’s “good” unemployment numbers broke. In fact, among swing voters, 54 percent now say they agree with the statement “Obama doesn’t know how to turn the economy around” versus just 39 percent who disagree. If O can’t put a dent in that this month, he’s in trouble, especially since those numbers partly reflect a “good” jobs report.


Some of Mitt’s improvement here is mind-boggling. Note the amazing shift in women and voters aged 18-49, in particular:


http://media.hotair.com/wp/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/sup.jpg

The one caveat here is the sample. Among registered voters, it’s 34.7R/34D/31.3I; among likelies, it’s probably a few points more Republican than that. Romney’s pollster and Scott Rasmussen have each said they’re expecting a sample of D+3 or so on election day, so this is a rare poll that’s actually a bit redder than it should be — although even that’s a testament to Romney’s debate performance. Party ID tends to shift a bit as each side builds momentum; that’s why the samples after the Democratic convention were a little bluer than usual. What’s happening here, I think, is that some chunk of the audience that watched the debate was sufficiently impressed by Mitt that they’re now identifying as Republican this week. If Ryan does well on Thursday and Romney follows through in his last two debates, maybe that identification will solidify and we’ll get a redder turnout on November 6 than even Team Mitt is expecting. At the very least, perennial Republicans are so energized by Romney’s ass-kicking that they may show up in even greater numbers than expected. Check out the fundraising haul (http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/10/06/romney-camp-reports-12m-in-online-donations-after-strong-debate-performance/) Mitt saw the first 48 hours after the Denver debacle. Good lord.


Update: With today’s Politico poll showing Obama up one and the race tied in both Rasmussen’s and Gallup’s trackers, O’s lead in the poll of polls is down to just half a point (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html).

[Kathianne]

and this:

http://pjmedia.com/vodkapundit/2012/10/08/lies-damned-lies-and-politico/


Lies, Damned Lies, and Politico
Posted By Stephen Green On October 8, 2012 @ 9:43 am

Politico is generous enough to admit that Empty Chair’s lead has slipped to one point (http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1012/82122.html?hp=l1), nationally:


A new POLITICO/George Washington University Battleground Tracking Poll (http://www.politico.com/polls/politico-george-washington-university-battleground-poll.html) of likely voters shows Obama ahead of Mitt Romney 49 percent to 48 percent nationally, a statistical tie and a percentage point closer than a week ago.


But wait, there’s less! Get to the internals if you want to get to the truth. First, let’s look at voter enthusiasm:


Only 73 percent who support Obama say they are “extremely likely” to vote, compared to 86 percent who back Romney. Likewise, 84 percent of Republicans say they are extremely likely to vote, compared to 76 percent of Democrats.


Ten points? That’s newsworthy, yes? And let’s get to this year’s Broken Glass voters:


Among those extremely likely to vote, Romney actually leads Obama 52 percent to 46 percent. That’s up from a 2-point lead last week.

Obama led 50 percent to 47 percent among this group three weeks ago.


Now, Politico is going to make you do a lot of scrolling to get to this next bit, which is why you can leave it to highly-trained scrolling professionals like myself to get the facts out to you:


Romney now leads among independents by 16 points, 51 percent to 35 percent. This is up from 4 points last week. But he still trails in the overall head-to-head numbers because of near monolithic support for Obama among minority Democrats.


But how likely is that monolithic block to vote? Not nearly as likely, in a paragraph Politico very strangely left separated from the last one I quoted:


The percentages among key Democratic constituencies who say they are extremely likely to vote should cause concern in Chicago: While 82 percent of whites (who break for Romney by a 15-point margin) say they’re “extremely likely” to vote, only 71 percent of African-Americans and 70 percent of Latinos do. And just 68 percent of 18-to-29-year-olds, another key Obama constituency, put themselves in the “extremely likely” to vote category.


You’d think that would be better reflected in Politico’s Likely Voter model, because there’s just no way to square Romney’s impressive lead with Indies and in enthusiasm, with Obama’s 1-point “lead.” Unless, of course, you’re oversampling Democrats significantly. Not that we’ve seen anything like that this year.

Now for the kicker:


This poll was in the field last Monday through Thursday, but about 85 percent of the calls were made before the debate on Wednesday night. The final night of tracking was good for Romney, but it’s not a big enough sample to report. So this does not reflect any momentum Romney might get from his performance in Denver. [Emphasis ever-so-sweetly added]


Why did they even bother publishing a poll that was outdated five nights ago? I think you’ll find the answer in this next line:


Regardless of who they’re supporting, 61 percent of those who replied to the poll said they think Obama will eventually prevail compared to 31 percent who said the same for Romney.


Huh. I wonder how people might ever have gotten that impression.

[mundame]

Extraordinary poll shift. I can't quite think when I've seen anything like it.

Obama must REALLY have plowed the other night because this result is like what happened to Perry of Texas when he had that loooonnnnnnnng pause when he couldn't think of what cabinet department he would like to demolish.....

And that was it, he was out.

I wonder if something like that is happening here.

Also: the Clint Eastwood "Empty Chair" got mixed reviews at the time he did it, but people have been using it in cartoons and as a metaphor ever since, so it turned out to be pretty powerful after all.

[Voted4Reagan]

I've been had! :cheers2:

The jobs figure has zero to do with the effectiveness of the president. Same with gas prices. It's a spin number.

Numbers you were all to happy to exploit when BUSH was president...

For you it's simply a matter of WHO is in the white house....

You could care less for the actual facts....

[Robert A Whit]

The OP is based on conspiracy as are half the posts in this thread.

And business owners, or former in this case, are included in the monthly household survey (http://www.bls.gov/cps/) just like anyone else.

Yup, I understand the conspiracy claims that Obama has created jobs.

I highly doubt any figures as to closed business in that I doubt they stay home.

[Robert A Whit]

Extraordinary poll shift. I can't quite think when I've seen anything like it.

Obama must REALLY have plowed the other night because this result is like what happened to Perry of Texas when he had that loooonnnnnnnng pause when he couldn't think of what cabinet department he would like to demolish.....

And that was it, he was out.

I wonder if something like that is happening here.

Also: the Clint Eastwood "Empty Chair" got mixed reviews at the time he did it, but people have been using it in cartoons and as a metaphor ever since, so it turned out to be pretty powerful after all.



I too noticed the change in the winds:clap:

[red states rule]

The three magic numbers for Obama, I read, are that the stock market has to be over 12,000, check;

Unemployment has to be 8% or lower and falling, check;

And gas has to be under $4. The more under the better.

Funny how after 4 years of bashing Wall St and wanting to blame them for all the nations problems, libs are using the DOW as a reason to keep Obama in office

So 7.8% is now the norm and is reason to celebrate?

$4/gal is now also the new norm?

You guys can't lower the bar much further for Obama unless you start digging with a back hoe

[fj1200]

I highly doubt any figures as to closed business in that I doubt they stay home.

:rolleyes:

[red states rule]

No matter how you measure it - Bush's recession was much better then Obama's recovery