Nat Journal poll finds Obama, Romney tied... by asking 24% more Dem LIKELY VOTERS

[Little-Acorn]

This seems to be one of the more honest polls out there lately (that doesn't place the bar very high, I know). They actually admit straightforwardly, right in the text, that they asked a lot more Dems that Republicans. In most polls, you have to dig really deep into the raw numbers to find this out.

The other interesting thing is that the lopsided oversampling of Democrats, is cited among the LIKELY VOTERS. Oversampling of the raw samples they took, isn't mentioned in this poll. In many polls, the oversampling of Democrats is far greater among ALL the people they asked, than among those they decide are "likely voters".

Interestingly, that means that most of these polls are finding that a greater percentage of Republicans are "more likely" to vote than Democrats. What does that tell you about what the turnout on Nov. 6 is likely to be?

But, back to the subject: In this National Journal poll, they frankly admit that they included far more "likely voter" Democrats than "likely voter" Republicans in the final sample, from which their conclusions are drawn.

And after asking 24% more LV Democrats, did Obama get 24% more votes? No, he got 0% more votes than Romney in the final count.

This means that, if 24% more Dems actually vote on Nov. 6 than Republicans, the outcome will be a tie, or very close to that.

But what if, say, equal numbers of Democrats and Republicans vote on Nov. 6? It won't be a tie then.

The polls states that they asked a lopsided number of Democrats, because a lopsided number voted in the 2008 election. They are assuming the same lopsided number will also vote in 2012.

Just one little problem: In the most recent national election (2010), more Republicans voted than Democrats.

And recent trends show even more Republicans registering, expressing high interest and enthusiasm for voting in this coming election; while Democrats are disappointed, dispirited, and otherwise not so interested in voting this time.

It is highly likely that Republicans will turn out in greater numbers on Nov. 6 than Democrats... just as they did two years ago.

This poll also points out that Independents (the other major voting bloc) favor Romney over Obama by a large margin. If any of them vote, it will tip the balance in favor of Romney. And if LOTS of them vote, it will tip the balance HEAVILY toward Romney.

The bell is tolling, Democrats. And it is tolling for YOU.

------------------------------------

http://www.nationaljournal.com/daily/obama-romney-tied-among-likely-voters-20121002

Obama, Romney Tied Among Likely Voters

By Shane Goldmacher
Updated: October 3, 2012 | 9:58 a.m.
October 2, 2012 | 8:00 p.m.

President Obama and Mitt Romney are deadlocked among likely voters as they prepare to square off in their first presidential debate, according to the latest United Technologies/National Journal Congressional Connection Poll.

The survey showed that voters remain resistant to either Obama or Romney holding full control of the federal government.

Obama and Romney each pulled in 47 percent support in the poll among likely voters. It is among the narrowest margins of several presidential surveys published ahead of the debate this week. Other polls have shown the president with a slim lead. In this survey, while the race is tied among likely voters, Obama has a 5-point lead, 49 percent to 44 percent, among registered voters.

The survey was conducted Sept. 27-30 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.

Romney led in the poll among independents, 49 percent to 41 percent, with both candidates winning more than 90 percent support from their respective parties. The survey had Obama winning 81 percent of the nonwhite vote and Romney carrying 55 percent of white voters.

In estimating the turnout on Nov. 6, the poll projects an electorate that is 74 percent white, 11 percent African-American, and 8 percent Latino. The likely-voter party splits are 36 percent Democratic, 29 percent Republican, and 30 percent independent.

The estimates are similar to the 2008 turnout, when, according to CNN exit polling, 74 percent of voters were white, 13 percent black, and 9 percent Latino, with Democratic turnout at 39 percent, Republicans at 32 percent, and independents at 29 percent.

http://cdn-media.nationaljournal.com/?controllerName=image&action=get&id=22472&width=650

[Thunderknuckles]

The whole polling business seems to have spiraled out of control.
The only polls that seem to be accurate are right before the election. All of this polling months in advance is too varied with some politically motivated.
I just stopped paying any attention to them anymore until the election.

[fj1200]

The polls states that they asked a lopsided number of Democrats, because a lopsided number voted in the 2008 election. They are assuming the same lopsided number will also vote in 2012.

Just one little problem: In the most recent national election (2010), more Republicans voted than Democrats.

An off-year election is probably not the best comparison.

[mundame]

I just read, a couple days ago, that fully 10 million more women vote than men vote.

So the GOP decides it's a GOOD idea to get most women hating them.


Oh, good plan. :lame2:

[mundame]

The whole polling business seems to have spiraled out of control.
The only polls that seem to be accurate are right before the election. All of this polling months in advance is too varied with some politically motivated.
I just stopped paying any attention to them anymore until the election.



I think you are right.

And really, not much more than a week before the election. I remember a guy who waited till one week before the Bush -- Kerry election and said, "That's it: Bush is 2% ahead, he'll win." He was right, too.

Though the Reagan -- Carter polls changed very fast the last week, so maybe that's no good either. Polls aren't much good if things are changing.

I thought the GOP was way ahead in the Senate, but they sure aren't now! Obama coattails? I don't know what's going on there.

[logroller]

Wholly smokes...I think we're gonna have more threads about polls than there are actual polls...if that's even possible.

But here we go again...perhaps the discrepancy is explained by the young voter turnout. When you analyze trends of young voter turnout between presidential and midterm elections, it see-saws; and when combined with the penchant for young voters supporting democratic candidate, there is a more favorable turnout for democrats in presidential races vs midterm. http://elections.gmu.edu/Classes/GOVT311/Voter%20Turnout%20in%20the%202010%20Midterm%20Elec tion.pdf


Btw, more people watch the superbowl than vote...kinda sad.

[Little-Acorn]

In many polls, the oversampling of Democrats is far greater among ALL the people they asked, than among those they decide are "likely voters".

Interestingly, that means that most of these polls are finding that a greater percentage of Republicans are "more likely" to vote than Democrats.

And recent trends show even more Republicans registering, expressing high interest and enthusiasm for voting in this coming election; while Democrats are disappointed, dispirited, and otherwise not so interested in voting this time.

There has not been a more stark display of Democrat dispiritedness, and Republican enthusiasm and determination, than at the Presidential debate last night.