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View Full Version : The US Voter Is More Rational Than Many Believe



Kathianne
06-10-2012, 11:05 AM
secretly I think the parties know it, which is why they always panic at the end:

http://reason.com/archives/2012/06/08/the-real-lesson-from-the-wisconsin-recal


When the issues were clear, voters were rational.“The art of government is to make two-thirds of the voters pay all it possibly can for the benefit of the other third,” wrote Voltaire, in one of the most counterintuitive yet accurate quotations about modern governance. Why are voters so willing to pay more of their hard-earned money to support the demands of a minority of their fellow citizens?

That’s not the question most of us are asking now, after public-sector unions were dealt devastating blows in Tuesday's elections in two of the most progressive states, Wisconsin and California.


Liberals are asking whether Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker’s overwhelming victory in a failed recall will spur similar “anti-worker” reforms across the country. Republicans are asking whether the Wisconsin vote—including the victory by three out of four Republicans in Wisconsin Senate seats targeted by the unions—spells doom for President Obama’s re-election.


Instead of wondering about short-term political implications, we should be asking why it took so long for voters to behave so rationally. Even in Democratic bastions such as San Jose, the public supported serious efforts to roll back benefit levels even for current employees. San Diego voters not only backed pension reform, but they OK’d a ban on union-only project labor agreements in the city and the reformist mayoral candidate took top place, although he will face a November run-off with a union Democrat.


Tuesday’s vote, however encouraging, is just the beginning of the broad-based reform movement that’s necessary to save states and municipalities from insolvency, to improve the nation’s increasingly decrepit public services, and to restore the proper balance between the citizen and the government official. But it is just the beginning.


Over the past decade, California governments have dramatically increased the pay and especially the benefit packages of public-sector workers. We have firefighters earning average total compensation packages of $175,000 a year in many jurisdictions, and majorities of police officers in some agencies retiring on questionable disabilities. The standard retirement package for the ever-expanding class of “public safety” officials allows them to retire at age 50 with 90 percent of their final year’s pay—and that’s before all the add-ons and scams. Miscellaneous members—the rest of public employees—aren’t far behind, and we’ve seen absurd enrichment schemes and salaries in one scandal after another.


I’ve watched a sea of proposals pass that give government employees special privileges that would never be allowed for mere private citizens, such as a recently passed California bill that allows many officials to shield their personal information from public property databases. These privileges encourage arrogance and misuses of power. Pensions are now consuming 16 percent of California’s discretionary budget, and in cities such as San Jose, pension costs escalated an eye-opening 350 percent in a decade.


Collective bargaining has made it nearly impossible for agencies to fire bad workers or pursue cost-saving alternatives. Although California leads the way in most absurd trends, the vast expansion of government compensation and special privileges is a nationwide problem, and in Tuesday’s election voters across the nation said they have had enough.


How did it get this bad?

...

fj1200
06-10-2012, 01:14 PM
secretly I think the parties know it, which is why they always panic at the end:

How did it get this bad?
http://reason.com/archives/2012/06/08/the-real-lesson-from-the-wisconsin-recal

Voters may be rational but when they are unaware of the problem in the first place, how can rationality rise to the surface?

Dilloduck
06-10-2012, 01:16 PM
Voters may be rational but when they are unaware of the problem in the first place, how can rationality rise to the surface?

they can't-----WI was a fluke. The issue was black or white.

fj1200
06-10-2012, 01:18 PM
they can't-----WI was a fluke. The issue was black or white.

Less and less IMO. More states will face the issue and eventually SS and Medicare will hit the fan.

ConHog
06-10-2012, 03:02 PM
I disagree with the premise of this thread. I believe the average American voter is an idiot. I offer our current President as proof of my opinion.

DragonStryk72
06-11-2012, 03:36 AM
I disagree with the premise of this thread. I believe the average American voter is an idiot. I offer our current President as proof of my opinion.

Actually, the thread isn't disagreeing with you, odd as that sounds. People vote for what they think is rational, but come on, when was the last time our bigger politicians were rational? WE KNOW they're flipping politics for votes, even just a few more. So the basic problem becomes that, since we can't use reason as a base, really, we use emotion, and this is where we get stupid.

mundame
06-12-2012, 09:39 AM
I think that's a good question, are American voters REALLY as stupid as so many people seem to assume?

I'm following the European crisis carefully. Everyone who writes any political article assumes that if our economy continues down because of the Eurozone breaking up/bank runs in Europe/financial crises there --- that the voters will vote Obama out, blaming him.

But I'm not sure I believe that ------ I know it wouldn't be about Obama if the economy crashed because of Europe, so why wouldn't other people? What do you all think about that?

fj1200
06-12-2012, 09:48 AM
I think that's a good question, are American voters REALLY as stupid as so many people seem to assume?

I'm following the European crisis carefully. Everyone who writes any political article assumes that if our economy continues down because of the Eurozone breaking up/bank runs in Europe/financial crises there --- that the voters will vote Obama out, blaming him.

But I'm not sure I believe that ------ I know it wouldn't be about Obama if the economy crashed because of Europe, so why wouldn't other people? What do you all think about that?

Unless it's Europe crashing because of the lack of growth in the US. Besides I think he, or his administration, has praised every "rescue" package that's been put forth. Leading from behind again I suppose.

mundame
06-12-2012, 09:59 AM
Unless it's Europe crashing because of the lack of growth in the US. Besides I think he, or his administration, has praised every "rescue" package that's been put forth. Leading from behind again I suppose.


Obama can't lead at all in this crisis --- he calls them, he sends ambassadors, he even got them all together one time at Camp David, but all this seems to be irrelevant and not viewed as anything but American political behavior in Europe --- they've got big troubles, they can't be paying attention to him.

And he has nothing at all to offer them, of course. Nor should he, with our deficit what it is.

No, we are likely to go downhill because of Europe; we already started a couple weeks ago. China is also going down, and India, worse than us so far.

Sort of refreshing, a crisis that is not about us. Actually, the whole last couple years have been that way: Arab Spring, Egypt, Syria, Russian protests, European crisis.

So you would say that Americans would blame Obama if Europe sags the whole world economy? You seem to be doing that --- ??

fj1200
06-12-2012, 10:07 AM
Obama can't lead at all in this crisis --- he calls them, he sends ambassadors, he even got them all together one time at Camp David, but all this seems to be irrelevant and not viewed as anything but American political behavior in Europe --- they've got big troubles, they can't be paying attention to him.

And he has nothing at all to offer them, of course. Nor should he, with our deficit what it is.

No, we are likely to go downhill because of Europe; we already started a couple weeks ago. China is also going down, and India, worse than us so far.

Sort of refreshing, a crisis that is not about us. Actually, the whole last couple years have been that way: Arab Spring, Egypt, Syria, Russian protests, European crisis.

So you would say that Americans would blame Obama if Europe sags the whole world economy? You seem to be doing that --- ??

Disagree, he's not showing any leadership when he praises what won't work. I also pointed to the lack of growth in the US as playing a part in the troubles of other countries. Granted, it's not the traditional view but the US leads just by mere fact of its presence when it follows pro-growth policies. Our falling competitiveness rankings are not unrelated IMO.

mundame
06-12-2012, 10:18 AM
Disagree, he's not showing any leadership when he praises what won't work. I also pointed to the lack of growth in the US as playing a part in the troubles of other countries. Granted, it's not the traditional view but the US leads just by mere fact of its presence when it follows pro-growth policies. Our falling competitiveness rankings are not unrelated IMO.


Good point, the American semi-hysteria being directed overseas (Fix it! Fix it!!) seems to be well-understood to be Obama's fear that he'll lose the election if they DON'T fix it.

I agree that pro-growth policies lead by example.

However, we WERE actually in a recovery: out of the recession, unemployment dropping, stock market booming, lots of good signs......for several weeks. And suddenly, two and a half weeks ago, bonk, flop. All the indicators went down, and so did China's and India's and Europe is of course dropping like a stone.

It's Europe pulling the world down: I am sure of that and that's what all the financial papers say. And I have yet to see ANY article anywhere that doesn't assume that if Europe crashes our economy and the world economy, the voters will punish Obama for it.

But I'm not so sure.............I know he didn't do it, why might not other people realize that if they start paying attention to Europe, which we hate to do till we have to?

fj1200
06-12-2012, 10:30 AM
Good point, the American semi-hysteria being directed overseas (Fix it! Fix it!!) seems to be well-understood to be Obama's fear that he'll lose the election if they DON'T fix it.

I agree that pro-growth policies lead by example.

However, we WERE actually in a recovery: out of the recession, unemployment dropping, stock market booming, lots of good signs......for several weeks. And suddenly, two and a half weeks ago, bonk, flop. All the indicators went down, and so did China's and India's and Europe is of course dropping like a stone.

It's Europe pulling the world down: I am sure of that and that's what all the financial papers say. And I have yet to see ANY article anywhere that doesn't assume that if Europe crashes our economy and the world economy, the voters will punish Obama for it.

But I'm not so sure.............I know he didn't do it, why might not other people realize that if they start paying attention to Europe, which we hate to do till we have to?

He's going to be punished for what the state of the economy is regardless of overseas happenings. Perhaps Americans don't like to feel like their destiny is being controlled by outside entities.

Regarding the state of our "recovery" and to judge success by that is the fallacy put forth. Our recovery is not a success if our own policies are what keep us from doing better.

http://blog.american.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/051612gdp1.jpg

I don't disagree that Europe IS dragging us down right now but I go further back to see what got us to where we are. A bit of a paradox but I think it fits best what's going on. Germany, at the height of the crisis, took an opposite tact with a relatively small stimulus while going through with a corporate tax cut that helped it's export driven businesses. It's the lack of overseas demand the ultimately dried up their recovery IMO.

mundame
06-12-2012, 10:46 AM
He's going to be punished for what the state of the economy is regardless of overseas happenings. Perhaps Americans don't like to feel like their destiny is being controlled by outside entities.


Okay. How my husband would agree with you --- and all the news media agrees, too. Americans will blame Obama, whether it's Europe's fault or not.

I am the only one doubting, and I am probably wrong..........

My favorite prediction about the election was that it depends on three numbers (probably in October):


Gas below $4 and falling --- that we've got because of the worldwide recession starting.

Stock market above 12,000 --- that we've got for now, but the Dow careens up and down wildly daily now, in fear. If the recession does get worse, I would expect it to go down.

Unemployment at or below 8% and falling --- we did have that, but iunemployment is going up now.


Gas prices will go down if economies go down. But the other two numbers won't favor Obama if the world economy goes bad, and the guy who wrote that "three numbers" piece says that predicts defeat for Obama.