Sarcozy's out; loses to françois hollande.

[logroller]

Yea for French socialists.

[fj1200]

At least our competitive advantage will widen out over the French. Now if we can convince all the other countries to go gangbusters socialist faster than we do.

[logroller]

At least our competitive advantage will widen out over the French. Now if we can convince all the other countries to go gangbusters socialist faster than we do.
Care to speculate on how this will effect Germany's dominant role in the EU and the call for austerity measures?

[fj1200]

Care to speculate on how this will effect Germany's dominant role in the EU and the call for austerity measures?

Germany's dominance will increase but I'm not sure what you're thinking about re: austerity. I can't imagine a left-leaning French government, especially French, will go anywhere near austerity, the farmers will clog up the roads again.

[logroller]

Germany's dominance will increase but I'm not sure what you're thinking about re: austerity. I can't imagine a left-leaning French government, especially French, will go anywhere near austerity, the farmers will clog up the roads again.
You answered what I fished for; that French support for Germany will increase, which in turn should increase the pressure on those member states facing such measures. I mean thats the practical side of socialism right? Being all for those measures which benefit me at the expense of others.

[fj1200]

You answered what I fished for; that French support for Germany will increase, which in turn should increase the pressure on those member states facing such measures. I mean thats the practical side of socialism right? Being all for those measures which benefit me at the expense of others.

I don't think I would say it in those terms though. The French I'm sure do NOT want to increase their support of Germany but it would be the likely outcome especially if Germany continues their pro-growth, pro-export, economic policies. I think the Socialism aspect takes a back seat to national interest.

[Gator Monroe]

This will not End Well , starting Monday.:lol:

[Kathianne]

Will be interesting, though the outcome was predicted weeks ago. Right Now, Futures and Asia:

http://money.cnn.com/data/premarket/


U.S. Stock Futures


<tbody>
http://i.cdn.turner.com/money/.element/img/3.0/data/arrowDown.gif S&P (http://money.cnn.com/data/markets/sandp/)
-12.50 / -0.92%


Level
1,350.00


Fair Value
1,365.24


Difference
-15.24


Data as of 8:23pm ET


http://i.cdn.turner.com/money/.element/img/3.0/data/arrowDown.gif Nasdaq (http://money.cnn.com/data/markets/nasdaq/)
-29.50 / -1.12%


Level
2,596.00


Fair Value
2,634.45



Difference
-38.45



Data as of 7:29pm ET


http://i.cdn.turner.com/money/.element/img/3.0/data/arrowDown.gif Dow (http://money.cnn.com/data/markets/dow/)
-125.00 / -0.96%


Level
12,832.00



</tbody>



<tbody>
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Nikkei 225 (http://money.cnn.com/data/world_markets/nikkei225) Japan
9,149.25
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http://i.cdn.turner.com/money/.element/img/3.0/data/marketClosed.png
Hang Seng (http://money.cnn.com/data/world_markets/hang_seng) Hong Kong
21,086.00
-0.77%


http://i.cdn.turner.com/money/.element/img/3.0/data/marketClosed.png
FTSE 100 (http://money.cnn.com/data/world_markets/ftse100) England
5,655.06
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DAX (http://money.cnn.com/data/world_markets/dax) Germany
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Data as of 8:27:34pm ET

[Kathianne]

Care to speculate on how this will effect Germany's dominant role in the EU and the call for austerity measures?

I made that point earlier on another thread. German people are already restless by how much they are giving for others. They've had two negative quarters and really don't want to pay for the sins of others. Originally the logic of austerity made sense to them, however when it's 'we work, they play, and we pay, it's not likely to be seen in the right light.

[Kathianne]

I don't think I would say it in those terms though. The French I'm sure do NOT want to increase their support of Germany but it would be the likely outcome especially if Germany continues their pro-growth, pro-export, economic policies. I think the Socialism aspect takes a back seat to national interest.

Germany's politics may well follow France's:

http://www.spiegel.de/international/business/0,1518,830972,00.html



05/04/2012 04.05.2012


Millions Left Behind in Boom The High Cost of Germany's Economic Success
What a year it's been for carmaker Audi and its employees, a year marked by the biggest profits in company history, a bonus in the millions for its chairman and handsome bonuses for many employees -- though little to nothing for those at the very bottom of the pay scale.




Technically speaking, Nadja Klöden isn't even at the very bottom of the hierarchy at Audi, which is based in Ingolstadt, near Munich. She's on the sidelines, yet also in the thick of things. The 28-year-old, who studied business management, works as a project assistant in administration. But her employer is BFFT, a service provider that organizes parts distribution among the Volkwagen Group's subsidiaries, which include Audi. That's why Klöden earns €800 ($1050) less than comparable Audi employees for the same 40-hour work week. In other words, although she contributes to the success of the company, she doesn't directly benefit from it. She receives neither an Audi-level salary nor any bonus whatsoever.

Helen Kozilek is in a similar situation. The 26-year-old works full-time on the assembly line at Audi, but the carmaker doesn't pay her wages. Instead, she is paid by Tuja, a temporary-employment agency and subsidiary of the Swiss temp giant Adecco. Compared with Klöden, however, Kozilek can consider herself a higher earner. The hourly rate for temporary workers in her salary group is normally about €10. But IG Metall, Germany's leading metal workers' union, has signed a wage agreement with Adecco so that Kozilek benefits from the €16 rate negotiated by the union. Still, Kozilek doesn't receive a bonus.


Franz Wolff, on the other hand, is sitting pretty. He has been working in maintenance at Audi's car painting division in Ingolstadt for the last 32 years. Wolff has a 35-hour work week and earns a gross salary of €3,300 a month, which is based on an industry-wide multi-employer agreement. Through an in-house wage agreement between the works council (the body that represents the interests of workers) and management, the 57-year-old trained auto mechanic also receives profit-sharing payments. This year, Audi will pay Wolff a bonus of €10,000. The average bonus at Audi is €8,251 -- a record. Audi values Wolff's contribution to its success -- and it provides him with a share of it.


Audi CEO Rupert Stadler's salary was also probably record-breaking, climbing 73 percent last year to reach €7.6 million.


One company. Four employees. Four worlds.


Broken Promises


"Prosperity for all" was once the credo of Ludwig Erhard, the first economics minister of postwar Germany. This promise shaped the country for decades and set it apart from many other economies. But how much is this promise still worth today?


The working world is disintegrating. On the one side are managers, specialists and members of the core workforce, who benefit from the fact that well-trained workers are scarce. On the other side is the reserve pool of workers who can be used as needed and then let go -- as contract workers or through special-order contracts, part-time work or temporary jobs. Many of these people work outside the provisions of collective bargaining agreements.


Labor-market experts view this increasing flexibility as the price of success, a necessary evil that made the rise of the German economy -- from "the sick man of Europe" to the Continent's economic paragon (http://www.spiegel.de/international/business/0,1518,822167,00.html) -- possible in the first place.


In fact, the German economy is in better shape than ever. Companies are reporting record profits, the size of the working population reached a new peak in 2011 and, according to Germany's Federal Employment Agency, the ranks of the unemployed have shrunk to only 3 million. In March, the country had an unemployment rate of just 7.2 percent.


Some companies are allowing their employees to benefit from the economic upswing through profit-sharing models. One of them is Sedus Stoll, a mid-sized maker of office furniture in the southwestern German town of Dogern, which has allowed its employees to share in company profits for the last 60 years. The aim is to ensure that the 950 employees "identify with the company" and learn to think for themselves even though they are part of a larger organization, says Carl-Heinz Osten, the company's chief financial officer.


A portion is paid out directly, but most of the money goes into the company's pension plan. Herbert Ebner, the chairman of the works council, says that, "in good times," employees have even taken home the equivalent of 15 or 16 monthly salaries each year.


Still, such ideal conditions are rare. Contrary to what the headlines about record bonuses in the automotive and chemical industries would suggest, only few employees benefit from them, as only 9 percent of German companies have profit-sharing arrangements with employees...

[Kathianne]

Last one, for now anyways:

http://money.cnn.com/2012/05/02/markets/germany-recession/index.htm


Europe's next recession risk: GermanyBy Ben Rooney @CNNMoneyInvest (https://twitter.com/intent/user?screen_name=cnnmoneyinvest) May 2, 2012

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- As recession spreads across Europe, Germany may not be able to avoid being dragged down.


In the past week, Spain (http://money.cnn.com/2012/04/30/news/economy/spain-recession/index.htm?iid=EL) and the United Kingdom (http://money.cnn.com/2012/04/25/news/economy/UK-recession/index.htm?iid=EL) revealed that they had slipped back into recession, with two straight quarters of economic contraction.


In all, 12 European economies are now officially in recession.


Germany, the largest euro economy and the fourth largest worldwide (http://money.cnn.com/news/economy/world_economies_gdp/?iid=EL), could be next: Its economy shrank 0.2% in the last three months of 2011, and it is expected to show another contraction when it releases data for the first quarter in mid-May.


"It's quite likely the German economy also contracted at very modest pace in the first quarter, which would technically fulfill the recession criteria," said Christian Schulz, a London-based economist at Berenberg Bank, the oldest private bank in Germany.


Overall, the eurozone economy is expected to suffer a mild recession this year (http://money.cnn.com/2012/03/08/markets/ecb/index.htm?iid=EL) as government austerity programs -- tax hikes and spending cuts -- take a toll on growth.


Europe's debt crisis rears its ugly head

(http://money.cnn.com/2012/04/24/markets/euro-crisis/index.htm?iid=EL)

The relatively healthy Germany does not need to subject its economy to the same painful austerity reforms it has urged other nations to embrace.


But the slowdown in the eurozone has taken a toll on Germany's export-dependent economy...

[fj1200]

Germany's politics may well follow France's:

http://www.spiegel.de/international/business/0,1518,830972,00.html

Very interesting. I'd be surprised to see a move to far away from Merkel.
Merkel Approval in Germany Climbs to Highest Level Since 2009 Re-Election (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-08/merkel-approval-in-germany-climbs-to-highest-level-since-2009-re-election.html)
And to reiterate my earlier point to my esteemed running mate.
Hollande Vows to Fight Austerity After Beating Sarkozy (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-06/hollande-defeats-sarkozy-in-shift-of-power-to-french-socialists.html)
Hollande faces the task of increasing competitiveness, cutting the budget deficit (http://topics.bloomberg.com/budget-deficit/) and spurring growth while keeping the region’s financial woes at bay. Campaigning against the most unpopular president in postwar France, he avoided specifics.
...
Hollande has proposed higher taxes for big companies and cuts for small and medium-sized businesses; a 75 percent levy on incomes above 1 million euros a year and special taxes on banks and oil companies (http://topics.bloomberg.com/oil-companies/).
More SpendingHis platform would raise spending by 20 billion euros ($26.3 billion) over his five-year term and the retirement age (http://topics.bloomberg.com/retirement-age/) for those who started working at 18 years old pushed back to 60 from 62. He said he would discuss with France (http://topics.bloomberg.com/france/)’s banks the split of their retail and investment activities.
Tax increases and eliminating loopholes would seek to raise 29 billion euros. The budget plan aims to eliminate the deficit in 2017, one year later than under Sarkozy’s plan, with a 3 percent of gross domestic product deficit target for 2013.

Sounds quite like the French BO... unfortunately for France.

[Kathianne]

Very interesting. I'd be surprised to see a move to far away from Merkel.
Merkel Approval in Germany Climbs to Highest Level Since 2009 Re-Election (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-08/merkel-approval-in-germany-climbs-to-highest-level-since-2009-re-election.html)


And to reiterate my earlier point to my esteemed running mate.
Hollande Vows to Fight Austerity After Beating Sarkozy (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-06/hollande-defeats-sarkozy-in-shift-of-power-to-french-socialists.html)



Sounds quite like the French BO... unfortunately for France.Ok, something is weird here, can't seem to enter into quote area, so I'll deal with first part, first. Greece is not likely to abide by what they said; nor is France now likely to do the same.

The later a given with the elections, no? To think Merkel will not pay the price, if she doesn't address the issues of Germany would be foolhardy. I don't think she is. For the second point, France never really was sold on 'austerity,' they'd like a day on and a day off, then 4 months of vacation.

[fj1200]

^I'm not sure what you're saying about "addressing the issues of Germany."

[Kathianne]

^I'm not sure what you're saying about "addressing the issues of Germany."

Germans are upset, rightly so, that their economy is being hampered by the doles being paid out to other states. Germany has been encouraging others to take a fair share, if you will, the election in France shows how the citizenry in other countries are reacting.

Shades of Wilson here.

[fj1200]

Germans are upset, rightly so, that their economy is being hampered by the doles being paid out to other states. Germany has been encouraging others to take a fair share, if you will, the election in France shows how the citizenry in other countries are reacting.

Shades of Wilson here.

My history is not up to your standards but I think it's the age-old problem of perception vs. reality. I wouldn't think their economy is being hampered too much by the bailouts but the EU slowdown in general. One could make the argument that the slowdown is related to the austerity measures that they are encouraging the other countries to make. But that would be a Picard level paradox.

Either way austerity is not the way to go. Pro-growth policies are far superior. I only wish our POTUS knew that.

[Kathianne]

My history is not up to your standards but I think it's the age-old problem of perception vs. reality. I wouldn't think their economy is being hampered too much by the bailouts but the EU slowdown in general. One could make the argument that the slowdown is related to the austerity measures that they are encouraging the other countries to make. But that would be a Picard level paradox.

Either way austerity is not the way to go. Pro-growth policies are far superior. I only wish our POTUS knew that.


My knowledge of history may well be more imperfect than you own. I guess in this case I combine what I know historically with political knowledge.

Germany's economy has nearly been given up for facing 2nd recession. Their leadership has taken a logical, pragmatic stance towards stability of both the euro and leadership of the bailout. What do they have to show for it?

An abyss.

[fj1200]

^It is mostly our fault. The US drives the world economy when it wants to.

[Kathianne]

Just came across this:

http://www.thelocal.de/politics/20120506-42381.html


Merkel loses power in state election Published: 6 May 12

German Chancellor Angela Merkel's centre-right coalition lost power in the state of Schleswig-Holstein, first estimates showed Sunday, after a vote that could presage national elections next year.


Merkel's Christian Democrats (CDU) scored 30.6 percent, according to ARD public television (http://www.thelocal.de/politics/20120506-42381.html#), with her junior partners at the national level, the Free Democrats (FDP), winning 8.3 percent - not enough to retain power in the northern state.

However, the opposition - combining the centre-left Social Democrats and ecologist Greens - also failed to gain sufficient support to form a government, with 29.9 percent and 13.6 percent respectively.

This left as a strong possibility a so-called "grand coalition" between the CDU and SPD, which many believe could be the final result of the national elections due in September or October 2013.
...