Unemployment hits 8.3 percent

[Thunderknuckles]

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/02/03/unemployment-rate-falls-to-83-percent-in-january-after-hiring-burst/?test=latestnews

Bad news for Republican presidential candidates basing their candidacy on the failed economic policies of the Obama Administration. If things continue to get better it will make for a steep uphill battle. You think Republicans are secretly praying that the CBO prediction is true in that unemployment will creep back to 9% near the end of the year?

[Noir]

This may sound stupid.

However, when I see a number like 8% unemployed and everyone thinks its bad. Like, yeah it is bad, but surly that means that 92% of able people are in work, which ain't so bad at all, no? =/

[fj1200]

This may sound stupid.

However, when I see a number like 8% unemployed and everyone thinks its bad. Like, yeah it is bad, but surly that means that 92% of able people are in work, which ain't so bad at all, no? =/

Not when you're one of those 8s.

[jimnyc]

This may sound stupid.

However, when I see a number like 8% unemployed and everyone thinks its bad. Like, yeah it is bad, but surly that means that 92% of able people are in work, which ain't so bad at all, no? =/

That 8% is MILLIONS of people, out of jobs, no money, trouble with bills, can't eat...

[pete311]

That 8% is MILLIONS of people, out of jobs, no money, trouble with bills, can't eat...

which is about 24 million people. looking at a historical perspective, the ideal and realistic rate is about 5%

[jimnyc]

which is about 24 million people. looking at a historical perspective, the ideal and realistic rate is about 5%

24 million sure is a lot of unemployed. Hell, even 5% is high when you think of the millions involved, but I don't think we'll ever go much below that number.

[pete311]

24 million sure is a lot of unemployed. Hell, even 5% is high when you think of the millions involved, but I don't think we'll ever go much below that number.

the recent low was 4% in 2000, but of course that was during the dot com craze and we still had some manufacturing here. it will take another sort of successful industry revolution to hit that low again

[KarlMarx]

This may sound stupid.

However, when I see a number like 8% unemployed and everyone thinks its bad. Like, yeah it is bad, but surly that means that 92% of able people are in work, which ain't so bad at all, no? =/

The 8.3 percent number is somewhat of a fiction. The unemployment rate in this country is usually measured by counting the number of people who are receiving unemployment benefits. Since unemployment benefits run out after a period of time (6 months to 2 years depending on where you live) those who no longer receive unemployment benefits are no longer counted in the unemployment rate.

Many people will tell you that the unemployment rate is higher (how much higher varies, but it could be as much as 3-5 percentage points more) because of this.

Historically, the unemployment rate in this country has been between 5-7 percent. Having the unemployment rate above that for as long as we have (over 3 years now) is an indication that the Obama administration is going about combatting the bad economy all wrong.

In his State of the Union address, Obama's answer to the economic problems we face was to raise taxes on the rich. Since the rich usually are business owners and the very people who create jobs, many of us feel that is the wrong approach.

The economy is doing poorly partly because people aren't spending money. They aren't spending money because they don't know if they are going to have a job. Employers aren't hiring and laying off people because people aren't spending enough money and that the cost of hiring people and keeping them employeed has become higher because of the Obama administration's policies. Many of us feel that repealing Obamacare and cutting tax rates would break the logjam I just described and help bring the economy back out of the doldrums.

[Little-Acorn]

Hmmm, I just looked at the U.S. Govt's Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly report.

Dec. 2011 Jan. 2012
------------------------------------------------------------
153.373 . . . 153.485 . . . Civilian labor force (millions)
140.681 . . . 139.944 . . . No. of persons employed (millions)
12.692 . . . . 13.541 . . . No. of persons unemployed (millions)
. . 8.3% . . . . 8.8% . . . . Unemployment rate (percent)

These are the raw numbers, compiled by the government. See them at:
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t01.htm

Looks to me like the unemployment rate went UP from Dec. 2011 to Jan 2012.

And the number of people unemployed went UP, by 849 thousand people. (6.7% MORE people were unemployed in Jan than in Dec).

"Seasonal adjustments" have somehow made this go away. I wonder how those 849,000 additional unemployed people feel about this?

[pete311]

Many of us feel that repealing Obamacare and cutting tax rates would break the logjam I just described and help bring the economy back out of the doldrums.

I am highly skeptical it's just that easy. There are a few european countries that have socialized medicine with very high taxes and have very low unemployment rates. Norway at 3.4%, Austria at 4.3%, Swiss at 3.5%.

[Nukeman]

Hmmm, I just looked at the U.S. Govt's Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly report.

Dec. 2011 Jan. 2012
------------------------------------------------------------
153.373 . . . 153.485 . . . Civilian labor force (millions)
140.681 . . . 139.944 . . . No. of persons employed (millions)
12.692 . . . . 13.541 . . . No. of persons unemployed (millions)
. . 8.3% . . . . 8.8% . . . . Unemployment rate (percent)

These are the raw numbers, compiled by the government. See them at:
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t01.htm

Looks to me like the unemployment rate went UP from Dec. 2011 to Jan 2012.

And the number of people unemployed went UP, by 849 thousand people. (6.7% MORE people were unemployed in Jan than in Dec).

"Seasonal adjustments" have somehow made this go away. I wonder how those 849,000 additional unemployed people feel about this?You left out that 1.2 million stopped looking all together. Only 63% of Americans are currently working that is the LOWEST number of able bodied Americans working in over 30 years. Please explain to me how that translates into a "recovering " economy. I know you didn't say it Acorn it's for the others that think this is great news.....

[Nukeman]

I am highly skeptical it's just that easy. There are a few european countries that have socialized medicine with very high taxes and have very low unemployment rates. Norway at 3.4%, Austria at 4.3%, Swiss at 3.5%.
The also have LOWER populations than us.. Norwaw only has 4.9 million people, Austria has 8.4 million, and Switzerland has 7.9 Million. Now we have MORE than that in one lousy state. So comparing those countries to the US is disingenious at best.....

[fj1200]

The 8.3 percent number is somewhat of a fiction. The unemployment rate in this country is usually measured by counting the number of people who are receiving unemployment benefits. Since unemployment benefits run out after a period of time (6 months to 2 years depending on where you live) those who no longer receive unemployment benefits are no longer counted in the unemployment rate.

I don't think it's ever been counted that way.

[Nukeman]

I don't think it's ever been counted that way.I think it is at least statisticly speaking. They get most of their numbers from the unemployment rolls. How else would they get their numbers? I have never recieved a phone call or a door to door asking if I was employed have YOU....

[fj1200]

I think it is at least statisticly speaking. They get most of their numbers from the unemployment rolls. How else would they get their numbers? I have never recieved a phone call or a door to door asking if I was employed have YOU....

Nope, but...


Some people think that to get these figures on unemployment, the Government uses the number of persons filing claims for unemployment insurance (UI) benefits under State or Federal Government programs. But some people are still jobless when their benefits run out, and many more are not eligible at all or delay or never apply for benefits. So, quite clearly, UI information cannot be used as a source for complete information on the number of unemployed....
Because unemployment insurance records relate only to persons who have applied for such benefits, and since it is impractical to actually count every unemployed person each month, the Government conducts a monthly sample survey called the Current Population Survey (CPS) to measure the extent of unemployment in the country. The CPS has been conducted in the United States every month since 1940, when it began as a Work Projects Administration project.
http://www.bls.gov/cps/cps_htgm.htm

[Nukeman]

Nope, but...

[/FONT][/COLOR]
http://www.bls.gov/cps/cps_htgm.htm
And that is exacatly why most of us believe the unemployment rate to be higher than stated, I feel its closer to 10-12%.

[KarlMarx]

I am highly skeptical it's just that easy. There are a few european countries that have socialized medicine with very high taxes and have very low unemployment rates. Norway at 3.4%, Austria at 4.3%, Swiss at 3.5%.

Comparing Obamacare with European socialized medicine isn't really a valid comparison because I believe that Obamacare places a high regulatory burden on employees which is expensive to implement. That burden was not there before its passage.

[pete311]

Comparing Obamacare with European socialized medicine isn't really a valid comparison because I believe that Obamacare places a high regulatory burden on employees which is expensive to implement. That burden was not there before its passage.

Obamacare certainly may not help the situation, but I can't believe it has the effect you are implying it has. I would be interested in how you connect Obamacare to millions of people unable to find a job. Unemployment was surging up before Obamacare.

[Nukeman]

Obamacare certainly may not help the situation, but I can't believe it has the effect you are implying it has. I would be interested in how you connect Obamacare to millions of people unable to find a job. Unemployment was surging up before Obamacare.Umm the cost of implementing the mandatory insurance for the employees. thats how it affects unemployment. small business owners are reluctant to hire or replace workers due to the significant increase of cost to their benefits that they offer employees.

You have to remember that for a 10$ hour employee you need to add 6$ more for bene's and the higher the wage the more it cost. I know that where I work it is about 14$ an hour for bene's for ALL fulltime employees. that is some considerable change, adn obama care has made it mandatory on a whole slew of small businesses. You knwo that backbone of America....

[fj1200]

And that is exacatly why most of us believe the unemployment rate to be higher than stated, I feel its closer to 10-12%.

Did I say otherwise because that's a completely different argument. The rate can go down just by people dropping out of the workforce, it can't/shouldn't be looked at on its own.

[Missileman]

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/02/03/unemployment-rate-falls-to-83-percent-in-january-after-hiring-burst/?test=latestnews

Bad news for Republican presidential candidates basing their candidacy on the failed economic policies of the Obama Administration. If things continue to get better it will make for a steep uphill battle. You think Republicans are secretly praying that the CBO prediction is true in that unemployment will creep back to 9% near the end of the year?

I heard the CBO is fudging the numbers and the figure is more like 10%.