The Arab Winter

[Kathianne]

The hope for these countries has frozen, the idea of democracy there was pretty far fetched from the beginning.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/after-the-hope-of-the-arab-spring-the-chill-of-an-arab-winter/2011/11/28/gIQABGqHIO_print.html

After the hope of the Arab Spring, the chill of an Arab Winter By Daniel Byman, Published: December 1 One year after a Tunisian fruit vendor set himself on fire in an act of defiance that would ignite protests and unseat long-standing dictatorships, a harsh chill is settling over the Arab world. The peaceful demonstrations in Bahrain, Egypt, Libya, Syria and Yemen that were supposed to bring democracy have instead given way to bloodshed and chaos, with the forces of tyranny trying to turn back the clock.
It is too soon to say that the Arab Spring is gone, never to resurface. But the Arab Winter has clearly arrived...

[fj1200]

A lost opportunity for the US? Probably.

[Psychoblues]

I don't recall any peaceful demonstrations in Bahrain, Egypt, Libya, Syria and Yemen. A lot of blood was shed in the Arab Spring and it will never stop that I can see. I would interpret the writings of this author to be very shallow and agenda driven from the least. I suppose he has a point but I fail to detect it.

Psychoblues

[Thunderknuckles]

The only reason we are talking about "Arab Winter" is because people don't seem keen on Western friendly democracies. They are getting what they asked for. They will get it and its our job to try an deal with it.

[Kathianne]

I don't recall any peaceful demonstrations in Bahrain, Egypt, Libya, Syria and Yemen. A lot of blood was shed in the Arab Spring and it will never stop that I can see. I would interpret the writings of this author to be very shallow and agenda driven from the least. I suppose he has a point but I fail to detect it.

Psychoblues

I think it's probably the last part about your failure to detect. In fact he made the point regarding blood spilt in the 'Spring.' Now tell the truth, you didn't read it?

As for the author, shallow is unlikely:


Daniel Byman is a professor in the security studies program at Georgetown University and research director at the Brookings Institution’s Saban Center for Middle East Policy. He is a co-author of “The Arab Awakening: America and the Transformation of the Middle East” (http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0815722265?ie=UTF8&tag=washpost-opinions-20&linkCode=xm2&camp=1789&creativeASIN=0815722265)and the author of “A High Price: The Triumphs and Failures of Israeli Counterterrorism.” (http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0195391829?ie=UTF8&tag=washpost-opinions-20&linkCode=xm2&camp=1789&creativeASIN=0195391829)

[Psychoblues]

I think it's probably the last part about your failure to detect. In fact he made the point regarding blood spilt in the 'Spring.' Now tell the truth, you didn't read it?

As for the author, shallow is unlikely:

You must be talking about this, Kath:

The Arab Spring began without U.S. help, and the people of the region will be the ones to determine its future. Washington should recognize that change is coming and support it, especially in key power centers such as Egypt. But inevitably it will play catch-up, managing crises where it can or must to keep instability from spreading. This could involve helping refugees, using diplomacy to try to prevent neighbors from intervening and escalating a conflict, and continuing to aggressively pursue al-Qaeda affiliates so they do not threaten Arab nations or the United States.

This is the next to last paragraph in the article. I continue to believe the author is unread and unqualified to interpret any events past, present or forecast in the middle east.

Psychoblues

[Kathianne]

You must be talking about this, Kath:

The Arab Spring began without U.S. help, and the people of the region will be the ones to determine its future. Washington should recognize that change is coming and support it, especially in key power centers such as Egypt. But inevitably it will play catch-up, managing crises where it can or must to keep instability from spreading. This could involve helping refugees, using diplomacy to try to prevent neighbors from intervening and escalating a conflict, and continuing to aggressively pursue al-Qaeda affiliates so they do not threaten Arab nations or the United States.

This is the next to last paragraph in the article. I continue to believe the author is unread and unqualified to interpret any events past, present or forecast in the middle east.

Psychoblues

Of course you do.

So, what 'help' did the US give? Should they have? You think the US should be involving themselves in these countries? If they choose to try, how do you think that would work out for US? What do have a problem with regarding the bolded?

[Psychoblues]

Of course you do.

So, what 'help' did the US give? Should they have? You think the US should be involving themselves in these countries? If they choose to try, how do you think that would work out for US? What do have a problem with regarding the bolded?

The United States involving itself in "key power centers such as Egypt" will only involve us further into the politics of the mid east and increase that regional resentment by the populations at large for us, our continued favoritism towards Israel and our military powers and presence. Ron Paul is correct on this issue. We need to look after ourselves better and mid east politics be left to and in the mid east. That may seem self centered but we've tried it the other way and it has cost us the 2 longest wars in the history of the nation and tremendous blood and treasure. What was it the doofus said, "Fool me once, er uh, fool me,,,,,,uh,,,I can't be fooled again?"

Don't pretend not to see the underlying purposes of this writer and I don't believe for a moment they are in the best interests of the United States.

Psychoblues

[Kathianne]

The United States involving itself in "key power centers such as Egypt" will only involve us further into the politics of the mid east and increase that regional resentment by the populations at large for us, our continued favoritism towards Israel and our military powers and presence. Ron Paul is correct on this issue. We need to look after ourselves better and mid east politics be left to and in the mid east. That may seem self centered but we've tried it the other way and it has cost us the 2 longest wars in the history of the nation and tremendous blood and treasure. What was it the doofus said, "Fool me once, er uh, fool me,,,,,,uh,,,I can't be fooled again?"

Don't pretend not to see the underlying purposes of this writer and I don't believe for a moment they are in the best interests of the United States.

Psychoblues
So you are asserting now that indeed the writer was correct in the US had nothing to do with the Arab Spring and should stay out of trying to push an governmental agenda in other countries? You disagree on the assertion that diplomacy should be used to try to keep relations going and avoid wars over there?

Am I understanding your point of view?

[Psychoblues]

So you are asserting now that indeed the writer was correct in the US had nothing to do with the Arab Spring and should stay out of trying to push an governmental agenda in other countries? You disagree on the assertion that diplomacy should be used to try to keep relations going and avoid wars over there?

Am I understanding your point of view?

With those assumptions of assertions by me I have no idea where to begin, Kath. Of course I don't agree or have ever said that I thought the US played no part in the Arab Spring. I do think, like Ron Paul, the US should protect itself but not be the policemen for the world. I never give up on diplomacy no matter how hopeless it may seem but I also never back down from the inevitable and always considering my own security and interests as they relate to my own affairs.

Psychoblues

[Kathianne]

With those assumptions of assertions by me I have no idea where to begin, Kath. Of course I don't agree or have ever said that I thought the US played no part in the Arab Spring. I do think, like Ron Paul, the US should protect itself but not be the policemen for the world. I never give up on diplomacy no matter how hopeless it may seem but I also never back down from the inevitable and always considering my own security and interests as they relate to my own affairs.

Psychoblues

OOOoooKkkaaaayyyy:

I was trying to make sense and get clarity from what you posted.


You must be talking about this, Kath:

The Arab Spring began without U.S. help, and the people of the region will be the ones to determine its future. Washington should recognize that change is coming and support it, especially in key power centers such as Egypt. But inevitably it will play catch-up, managing crises where it can or must to keep instability from spreading. This could involve helping refugees, using diplomacy to try to prevent neighbors from intervening and escalating a conflict, and continuing to aggressively pursue al-Qaeda affiliates so they do not threaten Arab nations or the United States.

This is the next to last paragraph in the article. I continue to believe the author is unread and unqualified to interpret any events past, present or forecast in the middle east.

Psychoblues

I replied:


Of course you do.

So, what 'help' did the US give? Should they have? You think the US should be involving themselves in these countries? If they choose to try, how do you think that would work out for US? What do have a problem with regarding the bolded?

You replied:


The United States involving itself in "key power centers such as Egypt" will only involve us further into the politics of the mid east and increase that regional resentment by the populations at large for us, our continued favoritism towards Israel and our military powers and presence. Ron Paul is correct on this issue. We need to look after ourselves better and mid east politics be left to and in the mid east. That may seem self centered but we've tried it the other way and it has cost us the 2 longest wars in the history of the nation and tremendous blood and treasure. What was it the doofus said, "Fool me once, er uh, fool me,,,,,,uh,,,I can't be fooled again?"

Don't pretend not to see the underlying purposes of this writer and I don't believe for a moment they are in the best interests of the United States.

Psychoblues

to which I replied:


So you are asserting now that indeed the writer was correct in the US had nothing to do with the Arab Spring and should stay out of trying to push an governmental agenda in other countries? You disagree on the assertion that diplomacy should be used to try to keep relations going and avoid wars over there?

Am I understanding your point of view?

To which you responded:


With those assumptions of assertions by me I have no idea where to begin, Kath. Of course I don't agree or have ever said that I thought the US played no part in the Arab Spring. I do think, like Ron Paul, the US should protect itself but not be the policemen for the world. I never give up on diplomacy no matter how hopeless it may seem but I also never back down from the inevitable and always considering my own security and interests as they relate to my own affairs.

Psychoblues

I don't know if you are getting this, but every time I respond to your posts, directly, you obfuscate. Why? I thought you were an upfront guy?

Can't you just say where I'm misunderstanding what you are saying? I'm using your posts to directly respond, then to make sure that your points are clarified. You refuse. Why? Do you really have nothing to say?

[Psychoblues]

No, no, Kath! I am not trying to obfuscate at all and I am trying to explain very complex observations in just a few words here. Obviously, I don't like this writer and I don't trust his judgements for a second. I have tried to make that clear and why. Please don't get so antsy and itchy about it all!!!!! You were the one that started right off accusing me of not having read the piece, ya know!!

:laugh2::laugh2::laugh2:

Psychoblues

[Kathianne]

No, no, Kath! I am not trying to obfuscate at all and I am trying to explain very complex observations in just a few words here. Obviously, I don't like this writer and I don't trust his judgements for a second. I have tried to make that clear and why. Please don't get so antsy and itchy about it all!!!!! You were the one that started right off accusing me of not having read the piece, ya know!!

:laugh2::laugh2::laugh2:

Psychoblues

Last chance to discuss. Again you obfuscate. Not one response to what were my to your posts, which I made point-by-point. If you choose not to, fine. I will virtually ignore you in this thread. That's not a bad thing, 'virtual,' it just means I won't respond to your posts, that don't require me to. Nothing gained or lost. Your choice. All you have to do is deal with one point at a time.

[Psychoblues]

Last chance to discuss. Again you obfuscate. Not one response to what were my to your posts, which I made point-by-point. If you choose not to, fine. I will virtually ignore you in this thread. That's not a bad thing, 'virtual,' it just means I won't respond to your posts, that don't require me to. Nothing gained or lost. Your choice. All you have to do is deal with one point at a time.

Actually, as far as your discussions typically go I thought the conversation was moving along rather splendidly. But let me recoup and see if I can figure out where we're getting crossed up. You started right out accusing me of not having read the article. I didn't quibble but I did post a portion of the article that seemed to me to refocus the attention to actually what I had said in my first post in the thread. You directed me to the end of the article and just as I had alluded it was right there and having to assume what you meant I posted that portion and commented further on it.

You seem to be confused on "just what help did the US provide" in the Arab Spring. You do understand that we are discussing the uprisings in Bahrain, Egypt, Libya, Syria and Yemen along with others in the region, don't you? Although much of our participation was highly advertised and visible I don't suppose there are any countries or even large cities in that region that do not have significant American military, intelligence and above all corporate presence and all were very active then and remain active to this day. I fully anticipate another Arab Spring, don't you?

You asked several questions that I didn't quite get, but like you are now accusing me, I felt you intended it that way but I wasn't going to whine about it. Whenever I see something that really catches my eye you know damned well that I will ask that question a hundred different ways until I can at least get a semblance of an understanding. You have done it and you have seen me do it a thousand times.

I am interested in a legit converse but if it is your desire to ignore me or it I can live with that. But that doesn't keep me from feeling sad for you about it.

Psychoblues

[fj1200]

I don't recall any peaceful demonstrations in Bahrain, Egypt, Libya, Syria and Yemen. A lot of blood was shed in the Arab Spring and it will never stop that I can see. I would interpret the writings of this author to be very shallow and agenda driven from the least. I suppose he has a point but I fail to detect it.

You just needed to make it to the end of the article:

We can hope that Tunisia will lead the region not only in loosening that grip, but in creating real democracy through free elections. However, we must also recognize that the Arab Spring may not bring freedom to much, or even most, of the Arab world. Even as the United States prepares to work with the region’s new democracies, it also must prepare for the chaos, stagnation and misrule that will mark the Arab Winter.

[Psychoblues]

You just needed to make it to the end of the article:

Insane and otherwise shallow suggestions that rather than complement but cancel one another are just not my idea of making a credible point, fj. Like you, this writer uses too many qualifiers to eliminate any true meaning to his literature. But, yeah, I kind of see what you mean.

:laugh2:

Psychoblues

[fj1200]

Insane and otherwise shallow suggestions that rather than complement but cancel one another are just not my idea of making a credible point, fj. Like you, this writer uses too many qualifiers to eliminate any true meaning to his literature. But, yeah, I kind of see what you mean.

Examples of qualifiers? His and mine?

[Psychoblues]

Examples of qualifiers? His and mine?

Yes

Psychoblues