About Those Black Friday Sales

[Kathianne]

Oh boy:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/about-those-record-black-friday-sales


About Those "Record" Black Friday Sales... http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/pictures/picture-5.jpg (http://www.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden)
Submitted by Tyler Durden (http://www.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden) on 11/29/2011 22:33 -0500


Yup. The rumors were all true: record sales... on negative margins. Because it is not difficult to dump product when you are, well, dumping. Case in point is Corning which today preannounced a lowered Q4 outlook. And if anyone should know about the state of the market for the most desired item (after the Apple trinkets of course) namely LCD TVs, it's Corning.

From Citi:


Another Negative Pre-announcement — On Tuesday Corning lowered its Q4 outlook. Despite healthy LCD TV sales, a customer in Korea has reneged on contracted deliveries into year end, resulting in SCP volume growth of +5%-+10% vs. +20% prior; this action is unprecedented according to Corning. In response, Corning is idling ~25% of total capacity (we believe primarily in SCP, where it will take charge). Add'ly, Gorilla now expected to decline -25% q/q vs. prior -15% guide due to softer tablets (we believe weak Android and RIMM tablet sales).



Feeling Blue about Black Friday TV Sales — Investors seemingly cheered aggressive LCD TV promotions and anecdotal reports of healthy sell-through. We agree that price promotions were certainly aggressive, but we are left feeling "blue" about Black Friday – What does it say for the state of LCD TV demand if the only way to stimulate unit growth is with massive price cuts? If the supply chain was unprofitable before recent aggressive retail pricing, how much worse will it be going forward as consumers' expectations are now likely anchored at the lower price points? ...

[ConHog]

Oh boy:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/about-those-record-black-friday-sales

It does make you wonder how a 42" lcd tv can sell for $199 when a stinking pair of levis is $60 doesn't it?

[jon_forward]

What do the blackfriday andour gvernment have in common? Think about it. Imho suicidal insanity. But I got me one of them tvs. Lol

[avatar4321]

I hate saying this, but our society is becoming way to obsessed with material things above the things of greater worth. That's not conducive for a good and strong society.

Black Friday was supposed to be the day companies enter the black. If they are losing money then they aren't. That's a symptom of a bigger problem.

[logroller]

What do the blackfriday andour gvernment have in common? Think about it. Imho suicidal insanity. But I got me one of them tvs. Lol
Stimulating commercial spending as an economic fix.

[ConHog]

If you think about it, a company like Wal Mart is brilliant putting these TV's on sell for one day. They don't guarantee anyone one, limited numbers all the way. Take the TV my sister bought for instance. It was a 40 inch for $199. Now let's say Wal Mart loses $100 on each one sold. Our local WM had 50. After that, you were out of luck. So that's $5000 they lost on those televisions. Meanwhile they had NO LESS than 300 people in line wanting that TV , that's 250 customers who didn't get a television. But I would dare say NONE of those people left WM empty handed that day. All WM had to do was make $50 off each one of those shoppers and they broke even on the 40" televisions. How many times have yall got out of WM for less than $50? And that's just at our little store.

They made money, and lots of it, or they wouldn't be having these sorts of sales.

[Noir]

I'm sure its been pointed out long before me, but i find it kinda bizarre as an outsider to see's has celebrating thanksgiving (i.e. 'be thankful for what you have') one day, to the see images over americans literally fighting over consumer goods the next day 0,o

[Trigg]

I'm sure its been pointed out long before me, but i find it kinda bizarre as an outsider to see's has celebrating thanksgiving (i.e. 'be thankful for what you have') one day, to the see images over americans literally fighting over consumer goods the next day 0,o

Ya, it's a real shame isn't it, and it gets worse every year in the larger cities.

I refuse to go blackfriday shopping because of the rude people. People forget the reason for Christmas in their obsession for the lowest price on whatever they're out to get. My daughter went out with her brother and some friends and I told them if they come across any rude pushy people to just stand back and say Merry Christmas and walk away. Fortunatally we live in a small town within driving distance of a mid-size city and they were able to go to the mall and everyone was friendly and just out to have a good time, they didn't have any problems.

[Kathianne]

If you think about it, a company like Wal Mart is brilliant putting these TV's on sell for one day. They don't guarantee anyone one, limited numbers all the way. Take the TV my sister bought for instance. It was a 40 inch for $199. Now let's say Wal Mart loses $100 on each one sold. Our local WM had 50. After that, you were out of luck. So that's $5000 they lost on those televisions. Meanwhile they had NO LESS than 300 people in line wanting that TV , that's 250 customers who didn't get a television. But I would dare say NONE of those people left WM empty handed that day. All WM had to do was make $50 off each one of those shoppers and they broke even on the 40" televisions. How many times have yall got out of WM for less than $50? And that's just at our little store.

They made money, and lots of it, or they wouldn't be having these sorts of sales.

http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/november-retail-sales-november-retail-sales/12/13/2011/id/38371?camp=syndication&medium=portals&from=yahoo



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Lousy November Retail Sales Numbers Prove Black Friday Headlines Were a Joke


Michael Comeau (http://www.minyanville.com/gazette/bios.htm?bio=188) DEC 13, 2011 12:30 PM


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November Retail Sales came in weak, completely nullifying the sensationalist numbers circulated regarding Black Friday.

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Best Buy's (BBY) spectacular flame-out (see: Best Buy: Weak Sales, Weak Margins, More Buybacks! (http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/best-buy-earnings-bby-earnings-value/12/13/2011/id/38363)) wasn't the only retail disappointment this morning -- the Commerce Department said that November retail sales rose just by 0.2% versus a consensus estimate calling for a 0.6% gain.

That painted an ugly picture for retail overall, but it made an even more important point about the sensationalist headlines around the great margin-sucking 'holiday' that is Black Friday: They can now be disregarded. (See: What Does Black Friday's Creep on Thanksgiving Say About American Retail? (http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/black-friday-amazon-black-friday-black/11/23/2011/id/38057))

If you rewind the clock a few weeks, you may remember hearing the National Retail Federation boasting of a 16% year-over-year sales gain for the four-day weekend following Thanksgiving, and ShopperTrak saying that retail sales rose 6.6% on Black Friday itself.

But thankfully, it appears that investors weren't suckered into bidding up retail stocks in reaction to those estimates.

Since the close of trading on the Wednesday before Thanksgiving, the Retail HOLDRS (RTH) ETF has returned 4.1% vs. a 7.3% gain for the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI).

But let's look forward.

It's obvious that old-school, brick-and-mortar retail is in a tough spot. Aside from a lousy job market and high commodity prices, there are two major structural problems that I can't get out of my head:

The first is Amazon.com (AMZN), which is growing like a weed due to its strategy of driving revenues at the expense of margins. (See: Is This the End for Amazon Bulls? (http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/Kindle-Best-Buy-Kindle-Fire-tablet/10/26/2011/id/37585)) It could hit the $50 billion revenue mark this year, and hit $100 billion within a couple of years, taking an even bigger chunk of consumers' wallets with it...

[Kathianne]

Oh boy:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/about-those-record-black-friday-sales

This guy definitely nailed it:

http://news.yahoo.com/retail-sales-rise-less-expected-november-133322903.html


... "It's fairly disappointing given that all the evidence was pointing to fairly strong gains during the month," said Millan Mulraine a macro strategist at TD Securities in New York.


Shoppers swarmed in to stores over the Thanksgiving weekend, traditionally retail's biggest sales period. Positive sales reports over that weekend led some analysts to predict a strong overall season.

However, many economists have warned the shopping frenzy may not carry through the holidays due to the nation's still high unemployment rate of 8.6 percent.


Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, rose sharply in the third quarter but November's retail sales growth was the weakest in any month since June...

Still, some of the weakness in retail sales was likely due to heavy discounting, Mulraine said.


One retailer that felt the pinch from heavy discounts was Best Buy Co's , the world's largest electronics chain. The firm on Tuesday reported a fall in third-quarter profits. Its shares dropped more than 10 percent...

[red states rule]

While taking a E-Smoke break I had Rush on and he talked about the retail numbers and he also talked about the pattern the liberal media followed regarding the numbers





snip
So the White House has to be panicking, and my submission is that the White House has been panicking for a long time. The White House has been panicking, the Democrat Party has been panicking for quite a while. That's why they're playing all the games with the unemployment numbers. And, by the way, Snerdley is somewhat depressed. He sends me a note here today, "Have you seen the retail sales number?" I said, "Yeah, I've seen a whole bunch of different reports on the retail sales numbers." So the one Snerdley gives me is from AP.

"Americans spent more on automobiles, furniture, and clothing at the start of the crucial holiday shopping season, boosting retail sales for a sixth straight month. Retail sales rose 0.2 percent in November," said the Commerce Department. Okay, fine. Can I share with you some headlines? I printed this out at 11:30, so 34 minutes ago: "Retail Sales Rise for a Sixth Month. Inventories Show Growth," USA Today.

NPR, an hour and a half ago: "Retail Sales Rise for Sixth Straight Month." MSNBC, an hour and a half ago: "Retail Sales Rose Less Than Expected in November." An hour and a half ago, San Francisco Chronicle: "Retail Sales in US Climbed Less Than Forecast in November." Wall Street Journal, hour and a half ago: "Retail Sales Post Modest Rise." Hour and a half ago, French News Agency: "US Retail Sales Weaken for Second Straight Month." Voice of America blog, an hour and a half ago: "Disappointing US Retail Sales." ABC News, hour and a half ago: "November Retail Sales up 0.2%." CNN Money, hour and a half ago: "Shoppers Slow Down."

Well, I've detected a pattern here. When the news was first reported by Commerce an hour and a half ago, the original take was, "Uh, this ain't so hot." And then after the original reporting was done, here comes the fix, changing the reporting to make it look like hot news, good news, better than expected, but the original reporting when the numbers first came out an hour and a half ago, no big deal.

http://www.rushlimbaugh.com/daily/2011/12/13/media_buries_bad_news_for_obama_in_gallup_poll_ret ail_sales_numbers