The Recovery That Isn't

[Kathianne]

Not only did the numbers 'unexpectedly' fall to fewer than 1/2 the expected creation, but there were additional corrections to the last report-unexpectedly again, downward:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20110601/bs_nm/us_usa_economy


Private sector job growth slumps in May
19 mins ago

NEW YORK (Reuters) – Private-sector payroll growth slowed sharply in May, coming in far below expectations and falling to the lowest level in eight months, a report by a payrolls processor showed on Wednesday.

The ADP Employer Services report showed private employers added a scant 38,000 jobs last month, while April private payrolls were revised down to an increase of 177,000 from the previously reported 179,000. Economists surveyed by Reuters had forecast a gain of 175,000 jobs for May.

The report is jointly developed with Macroeconomic Advisers LLC.

"Obviously a much weaker-than-expected report, hinting that Friday's nonfarm data will also be weaker than expected," said Camilla Sutton, senior currency strategist at Scotia Capital in Toronto, referring to the U.S. Labor Department's monthly non-farm payrolls report due for Friday...

This follows the reports on housing from the other day, basically proving that government 'regulations' to create homeownership for everyone was not a good idea. Bush encourage that, just like all presidents since Nixon, increasing the pressure with each new administration:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-01/why-64-percent-is-the-golden-mean-in-the-housing-market-view.html

[Kathianne]

Why no recovery? It's about jobs and those that create them:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2011-05-26/carter-economic-stagnation-explained-at-30-000-feet.html


Carter: Economic Stagnation Explained, at 30,000 Feet
By Stephen L. Carter - May 26, 2011

The man in the aisle seat is trying to tell me why he refuses to hire anybody. His business is successful, he says, as the 737 cruises smoothly eastward. Demand for his product is up. But he still won’t hire.

“Why not?”

“Because I don’t know how much it will cost,” he explains. “How can I hire new workers today, when I don’t know how much they will cost me tomorrow?”

He’s referring not to wages, but to regulation: He has no way of telling what new rules will go into effect when. His business, although it covers several states, operates on low margins. He can’t afford to take the chance of losing what little profit there is to the next round of regulatory changes. And so he’s hiring nobody until he has some certainty about cost.

It’s a little odd to be having this conversation as the news media keep insisting that private employment is picking up. But as economists have pointed out to all who will listen, the only real change is that the rate of layoffs has slowed. Fewer than one of six small businesses added jobs last year, and not many more expect to do so this year. The private sector is creating no more new jobs than it was a year ago; the man in the aisle seat is trying to tell me why...

[avatar4321]

There wont be a recover unless our Governments policies seriously change and the people seriously change. There are too many of us waiting for someone else to give us a job instead of going out and creating our own.

[Kathianne]

There wont be a recover unless our Governments policies seriously change and the people seriously change. There are too many of us waiting for someone else to give us a job instead of going out and creating our own.

Actually the people are behaving as 'expected.' The government must get in line.

[Kathianne]

The street isn't much liking the report:

http://i52.tinypic.com/zjb14i.png

[red states rule]

It was a bad day on Wall St. Dow drops 279 points after more "unexpected" news on the Obama economy

[Kathianne]

Someone on WaPo is getting it:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/us-economic-recovery-is-faltering/2011/06/01/AGYp8OGH_story.html


U.S. economic recovery is faltering
By Neil Irwin, Wednesday, June 1, 10:38 AM

The U.S. economic recovery is faltering, and Washington is out of ways to get it back on track.

New reports Wednesday showed a steep slowdown in the manufacturing sector and weak private-sector job creation in May, which comes on the heels of other recent indicators that show the economy slowing to a limp this spring. The grim data dash the sunnier expectations that many analysts had entering the year. Many forecasters had expected growth of 3.5 to 4 percent in 2011.

Instead of accelerating, the U.S. economy appears to be settling back into a pattern of growth near its long-term trend rate of 2.5 to 3 percent. That rate of growth is only enough to accommodate a rising population and higher worker productivity, not to put the millions of jobless back to work — keeping unemployment mostly stuck at its current pace.

“The recovery continues, but at a disturbingly slow pace,” said Diane Swonk, chief economist for Mesirow Financial.

While the stock market has held up in recent weeks, the market for U.S. government bonds is reflecting the diminished economic prospects: The interest rate that the Treasury must pay to borrow money for 10 years fell to 2.95 percent Wednesday, from 3.06 percent on Tuesday and 3.74 percent in February. Investors instead favored the safety of government bonds and anticipated that the Federal Reserve will keep interests rates low for longer than previously expected.

The stock market was down 2.1 percent Wednesday afternoon as measured by the Standard & Poor’s 500, reflecting the weak economic news.

When economic growth slowed last summer, analysts began to fear a dip back into recession. The government swung into action: The Federal Reserve began discussing what would ultimately become known as QE2, or the second round of quantitative easing, a $600 billion effort to prop up growth that ends in June. And by the end of the year, Congress and the Obama administration reached an accord to temporarily cut payroll taxes to boost consumer spending....

Now it's all about QE3 and it's not promising...

[red states rule]

and this from Fox News. Bad news for my girlfriend who would love to sell her house





U.S. home prices officially double-dipped in March, tumbling to new post-bubble lows, a report released Tuesday revealed.

According to the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index, seasonally-adjusted prices in 20 metro areas slumped 0.2% in March from February to 138.16 -- below the crisis low set in April 2009 of 139.26. While economists had projected the 0.2% decline, it marks a painful reminder of the housing market’s failure to mount a sustainable rebound from its historic slump.

S&P said the short-lived bounce in home prices in 2009 and 2010 was largely due to the first-time home buyers tax credit, which has since expired.

“Excluding the results of that policy, there has been no recovery or even stabilization in home prices during or after the recent recession,” David Blitzer, chairman of the index committee at S&P Indices, said in the report. “This month’s report is marked by the confirmation of a double-dip in home prices across much of the nation…Home prices continue on their downward spiral with no relief in sight.”

In the 20 markets surveyed by S&P, home prices were off by a non-adjusted 0.8%, compared with a 1.1% drop in February and forecasts for a 0.6% fall. Year-over-year, home prices tumbled 3.3%.

Read more: http://www.foxbusiness.com/industries/2011/05/31/home-prices-drop-double-dip-territory/#ixzz1O3mf6FDP

[avatar4321]

Actually the people are behaving as 'expected.' The government must get in line.

I don't agree. the People need to change.

[avatar4321]

Someone on WaPo is getting it:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/us-economic-recovery-is-faltering/2011/06/01/AGYp8OGH_story.html



Now it's all about QE3 and it's not promising...

QE3 is just a mistake. Last thing we need to do is pump more money into this economy and devalue the dollar more.

[fj1200]

QE3 is just a mistake. Last thing we need to do is pump more money into this economy and devalue the dollar more.

True, after the brilliance of QE2 they're talking about it? The Fed is out of bullets and has been for over two years.

[red states rule]

More "unexpected" news




Consumer confidence falls unexpectedly in May

NEW YORK (AP) -- Americans are losing faith that the economy will keep improving, according to a monthly survey.

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index fell to a six-month low of 60.8 from a revised 66 in April, a sign of the toll that high gas prices, a choppy job outlook and a moribund housing market are taking on people's psyches. Economists had expected an increase to 67.

"Consumers are considerably more apprehensive about future business and labor market conditions as well as their income prospects," said Lynn Franco, director of The Conference Board Consumer Research Center. She said fears of inflation that had eased in April picked up again in May.

The index, released Tuesday, is still far from the reading of 90 that indicates a healthy economy. It hasn't approached that level since the recession began in December 2007.

The results paint a different picture than earlier this year, when many hoped the economic recovery was gaining steam. In February, consumer confidence hit a three-year high. But since then, consumers have started paying more for food and gasoline and are seeing a "double dip" in the housing market.

Part of the problem in May was that the confidence survey's cutoff of May 18 did not give consumers enough time to react to falling gas prices, which peaked early in the month, IHS Global Insight Economist Chris Christopher said.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Consumer-confidence-falls-apf-1525822108.html?x=0





I love the excuse the writer gives about "falling" gas prices. Last I checked the price of gas is still twice what is was when Obama took office

So we should be happy about that?

[Kathianne]

QE3 is just a mistake. Last thing we need to do is pump more money into this economy and devalue the dollar more.

Perhaps some good news about QE3, seems you missed my point:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/all-eyes-on-bernanke-but-qe3-has-sailed-2011-06-02?siteid=yhoof


June 2, 2011, 12:01 a.m. EDT
All eyes on Bernanke, but QE3 has sailed
Commentary: Summer swoon must be ridden out

By David Callaway , MarketWatch

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — With investor panic growing faster than the U.S. economy is weakening, all eyes turn to Fed chief Ben Bernanke this month to see if he will launch a third round of bond buying to prop up the global markets.

Don’t hold your breath, folks. The QE3 has sailed.

Stock markets, housing markets and jobs payrolls may be falling faster than Greek debt ratings these past few weeks, but in part that’s because investors are looking for any excuse to sell after we had four strong months at the beginning of the year...

[red states rule]

Now the liberal media is blaming the "missing" workers for the unempoloyment number

They will find a way to protect Obama no matter how lame the excuse is




More job seekers give up, reducing unemployment
By PAUL WISEMAN, AP Economics Writer – 7 hours ago

WASHINGTON (AP) — Where did all the workers go?

The labor force — those who have a job or are looking for one — is getting smaller, even though the economy is growing and steadily adding jobs. That trend defies the rules of a normal economic recovery.

Nobody is sure why it's happening. Economists think some of the missing workers have retired, have entered college or are getting by on government disability checks. Others have probably just given up looking for work.

"A small work force means millions of discouraged workers, lower output in the future and a weak recovery," says Rep. Kevin Brady of Texas, the ranking Republican on the Congress' Joint Economic Committee. "Those are unhealthy signs."

By the government's definition, if you quit looking, you're no longer counted as unemployed. And you're no longer part of the labor force.

Since November, the number of Americans counted as employed has grown by 765,000, to just shy of 139 million. The nation has been creating jobs every month as the economy recovers. The economy added 244,000 jobs in April.

But the number of Americans counted as unemployed has shrunk by much more — almost 1.3 million — during this time. That means the labor force has dropped by 529,000 workers.

The percentage of adults in the labor force is a figure that economists call the participation rate. It is 64.2 percent, the smallest since 1984. And that's become a mystery to economists. Normally after a recession, an improving economy lures job seekers back into the labor market. This time, many are staying on the sidelines.

Their decision not to seek work means the drop in unemployment from 9.8 percent in November to 9 percent in April isn't as good as it looks.

If the 529,000 missing workers had been out scavenging for a job without success, the unemployment rate would have been 9.3 percent in April, not the reported rate of 9 percent. And if the participation rate were as high as it was when the recession began, 66 percent, in December 2007, the unemployment rate could have been as high as 11.5 percent.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5iofYwCkhZDW3jGMxzDV_XehPgYKQ?docId=6c24074dd 10b40329ddc8b127497acad

[Kathianne]

Now the liberal media is blaming the "missing" workers for the unempoloyment number

They will find a way to protect Obama no matter how lame the excuse is

It's that and more. Many are doing as I am, working an insane number of hours, for 1/3 of former income. They are giving up houses and can't replace their cars if something happens to them. Since they can't afford to maintain their cars, many will be back on some sort of assistance down the road. They've created a cycle here, with people that never would have entered it.

[red states rule]

It's that and more. Many are doing as I am, working an insane number of hours, for 1/3 of former income. They are giving up houses and can't replace their cars if something happens to them. Since they can't afford to maintain their cars, many will be back on some sort of assistance down the road. They've created a cycle here, with people that never would have entered it.

I suspect it will only get worse Kat. As banks gear up to clear out the backlog of f/c due to the government and the lawyers slowing down the process - we will see a flood of repossions. That in turn will lower home prices and put more people under water

We also have inflation and government polcies increasing the cost of doing business. With the added uncertainty employers will not hire. As m ore people remain out of work you will have less consumer spending and thus even less economic growth

I am sure you get the picture

Not hope and change as we were promised. We will have no hope of change

[Kathianne]

I suspect it will only get worse Kat. As banks gear up to clear out the backlog of f/c due to the government and the lawyers slowing down the process - we will see a flood of repossions. That in turn will lower home prices and put more people under water

We also have inflation and government polcies increasing the cost of doing business. With the added uncertainty employers will not hire. As m ore people remain out of work you will have less consumer spending and thus even less economic growth

I am sure you get the picture

Not hope and change as we were promised. We will have no hope of change

The outlook is not good and projections are now that it will become bleaker:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/43239387


'Sugar High That Has Buoyed US Economy Is Wearing Out'
Published: Wednesday, 1 Jun 2011 | 1:52 PM ET
Text Size
By: Reuters

Investors fled U.S. stock markets Wednesday and poured into Treasurys after dismal economic data, driving benchmark yields to below 3.0 percent for the first time since December.

The dollar also fell after the latest employment and manufacturing indicators signaled that U.S. economic growth may be slowing more quickly than first thought...

Failed Stimulus

The job additions were the lowest published by ADP since September 2010. Analysts expect Friday's official total non-farm payroll numbers for May to be much better.

"It fits very neatly in with the puzzle we are putting together that speaks to another soft patch and really, a genuinely failed stimulus approach to growing the economy," said Peter Kenny, managing director at Knight Capital in Jersey City, New Jersey.

"And it's not just about jobs. It's about manufacturing, it's about real estate, it's about consumer confidence. This is one data point in a very broad picture, and it's not encouraging."

...

One of the things done with the 'sugar stimulus' would cause most on the right and left to gasp, though the MSM fails now to even mention:

http://hotair.com/archives/2011/06/02/fannie-freddie-got-400-million-in-no-bid-deals-from-tarp/


Fannie & Freddie got $400 million in no-bid deals from TARP?

posted at 10:40 am on June 2, 2011 by Ed Morrissey


If one had to select two contractors to run and enforce compliance measures for a loan-modification program meant to ameliorate the effects of the housing-market collapse, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac would be among the last organizations most taxpayers would trust with that task. They ended up with the job of administration and enforcement of the “Home Affordable Modification Program” anyway, and botched the job, as a whistleblower reported to the Center for Public Integrity last year. Now Bloomberg Government reports that the Obama administration gave Fannie and Freddie the job of cleaning up the mess they created in a no-bid contract, as Danielle Ivory reports (via Desmond L, subscription only):

...

[red states rule]

The outlook is not good and projections are now that it will become bleaker:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/43239387



One of the things done with the 'sugar stimulus' would cause most on the right and left to gasp, though the MSM fails now to even mention:

http://hotair.com/archives/2011/06/02/fannie-freddie-got-400-million-in-no-bid-deals-from-tarp/

I deal with default on a daily basis Kat. I have seen a surge in cases where the h/o has not made a payment since 2008 and they are just now getting close to the f/c sale date

The banks must clear their books of these loans and many are backed by Fannie and Freddie - our tax dollars at work

The liberal media ignores this and instead blames the bank for giving the loan and not the government sticking its nose into the private sector

Also I have seen ALOT of people who DID get a loan mod and guess what - they are back in default! It is clear they cannot afford the house yet they DEMAND we change the terms of their loan AGAIN

Oh well, it is steady employment for at least another 2 years while Pres Botch is running things

[Gaffer]

DEPRESSION, DEPRESSION, DEPRESSION.

Within two years we will be in a full blown Great Depression.

[Kathianne]

DEPRESSION, DEPRESSION, DEPRESSION.

Within two years we will be in a full blown Great Depression.

I don't think it's going to take that long I'm sorry to say.

[red states rule]

DEPRESSION, DEPRESSION, DEPRESSION.

Within two years we will be in a full blown Great Depression.

<iframe width="425" height="349" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/VRRsfCD1Bh0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

[red states rule]

It is scary how I know how the lieberal meida will trot out the victims of those damn greedy banks





Homeowners protest loan modifications that ended in foreclosures
The Associated Press

LOS ANGELES — Grocery store owners William and Esperanza Casco were making enough money to stay current on their mortgage, but when JPMorgan Chase & Co. offered a plan that reduced their payments, they figured they could use the extra cash and signed up.

The Cascos say they never missed a subsequent payment, so they were horrified when the bank decided the smaller payments weren't enough and foreclosed on their modest Long Beach home.

Their story is echoed across the country by people who claim – some in lawsuits – that banks didn't live up to their end of the deal when they agreed to trial mortgage modifications.

The suits add to a feeling among many struggling homeowners that they're getting little help from the part of the government's $700 billion Wall Street rescue that aimed to help them directly.

Indeed, Treasury statistics show that only about one-third of the nearly 1.4 million homeowners accepted into the government's payment reduction program over the past year have had their reductions made permanent.

"It is extremely unfair that someone like me and my wife who have owned our home for 17 years and never missed a payment could end up in foreclosure," Casco, 47, said in Spanish through an interpreter.

http://www.pressherald.com/business/Homeowners-protest-loan-modifications-that-ended-in-foreclosures-.html

[avatar4321]

DEPRESSION, DEPRESSION, DEPRESSION.

Within two years we will be in a full blown Great Depression.

I think we already are. The people are just in denial. What i don't understand is why diehard Democrats think that this is condusive to Obama being unbeatable like they seem to think.

But then I suspect that may be because they think elections are just popularity contest and that their candidate is "cooler" than any of the Republicans. I could be wrong.

[red states rule]

I think we already are. The people are just in denial. What i don't understand is why diehard Democrats think that this is condusive to Obama being unbeatable like they seem to think.

But then I suspect that may be because they think elections are just popularity contest and that their candidate is "cooler" than any of the Republicans. I could be wrong.

You are not

People vote their pocketbooks

How can ANYONE say with a straight face Obama's economic policies are having a positive effect on the economy?

[Gaffer]

I don't think it's going to take that long I'm sorry to say.

Your right, It won't take that long. It's well underway now. We are on our way to a two cast system. The new royalty and the peons.

[avatar4321]

Your right, It won't take that long. It's well underway now. We are on our way to a two cast system. The new royalty and the peons.

Then we change that now by living good principles.

[LuvRPgrl]

I don't agree. the People need to change.

I tend to agree with Kat on this. while you are right that alot of people are waiting around for the govt to give them a job, there will always be those types, and its ok, because entrepeneurs give them the jobs, problem is, federally as well as really really bad here in calif., the govt is making it more and more difficult for small businesses to flourish and provide jobs.
I mean, if you think about it, they give billions to bail out big business,and they get it from the small businessman, and anyone who knows anything, knows the small businesses employ more than the big corps

[LuvRPgrl]

There was a Dem talking head on Cavuto's show, and he lied about how many jobs obama has "created", and after the guy left, cavuto quoted the numbers from the beureu of labor statistics to show the guy was wrong.


Not only did the numbers 'unexpectedly' fall to fewer than 1/2 the expected creation, but there were additional corrections to the last report-unexpectedly again, downward:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20110601/bs_nm/us_usa_economy



This follows the reports on housing from the other day, basically proving that government 'regulations' to create homeownership for everyone was not a good idea. Bush encourage that, just like all presidents since Nixon, increasing the pressure with each new administration:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-01/why-64-percent-is-the-golden-mean-in-the-housing-market-view.html

[red states rule]

There was a Dem talking head on Cavuto's show, and he lied about how many jobs obama has "created", and after the guy left, cavuto quoted the numbers from the beureu of labor statistics to show the guy was wrong.

Well you can't expect them to tell the truth with the election being next year do you?

[red states rule]

and watch Chris Matthews admit he believes in Keynesianism - well maybe not now he doesn't

<iframe title="MRC TV video player" width="640" height="360" src="http://www.mrctv.org/embed/102360" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

[LuvRPgrl]

Well you can't expect them to tell the truth with the election being next year do you?

Well, I NEVER expect them to, but its funny when someone in the media has the balls to call them on it. Thats why libs hate FOX news, they call the Dems on their lies, while the rest of the MSM plays softball with Chris Mathews, that guy wouldnt know a "hardball" if it hit him in the balls.

[red states rule]

Well, I NEVER expect them to, but its funny when someone in the media has the balls to call them on it. Thats why libs hate FOX news, they call the Dems on their lies, while the rest of the MSM plays softball with Chris Mathews, that guy wouldnt know a "hardball" if it hit him in the balls.

Look at the BS being tossed around to downplay the bad job numbers that came out today

It is not about the people losing their jobs, and their homes. It is not aboput those who want to work but can't find any

It is all about Obama and how it hurts HIM