Christmas Sales Up, But Not By Much

[Kathianne]

I have heard though that retailers have been very careful with keeping inventories down, so they may come out ok:

http://blog.al.com/wire/2010/11/national_black_friday_retail_s.html#_login


National Black Friday retail sales edge up 0.3 percent
Published: Saturday, November 27, 2010, 4:21 PM Updated: Saturday, November 27, 2010, 4:33 PM
The Associated Press The Associated Press


NEW YORK — Shoppers crowded stores on Black Friday but spent only a little more than last year on the traditional start of the holiday shopping season, data released Saturday shows.

Retail sales rose a slight 0.3 percent compared with the day after Thanksgiving last year, to $10.69 billion, according to ShopperTrak. The firm says that's still a record for the day...

[Pagan]

Yeah Downtown Seattle during this time used to be pretty much gridlock, not so for this nor the last couple of years.

The economy is fucked and it's not getting better. There has been a giant sucking sound of decent paying jobs leaving the country for the last decade. All this so called "bail out" has done is to fund even more loss of jobs.

[DragonStryk72]

Actually, I don't we're going to go back to the boom days of the economy for a good while, and I'm starting to realize that's a good thing.

Okay, let's say you start with a job making 65k a year, not too bad. Then, your company takes off, some great new invention, and bam! you're making over 100k now with your profit share. Well, after a while, other companies start carrying it, of course, and so have even made improvements over your company's original design. Things scale back, profits drop back to previous levels, and you're back to your 65k.

It's not really that you're broke, it's that you got used to that 100k, and spent and saved based on that figure. It may feel like you're crippled, but really, you're just going back to the SOP.

I think that's what's happened, is that we were doing awesome for a really long time, and then of course, it finally snapped back. Now, it feels like we're screwed, but really, we're just less well off.

[Kathianne]

Actually, I don't we're going to go back to the boom days of the economy for a good while, and I'm starting to realize that's a good thing.

Okay, let's say you start with a job making 65k a year, not too bad. Then, your company takes off, some great new invention, and bam! you're making over 100k now with your profit share. Well, after a while, other companies start carrying it, of course, and so have even made improvements over your company's original design. Things scale back, profits drop back to previous levels, and you're back to your 65k.

It's not really that you're broke, it's that you got used to that 100k, and spent and saved based on that figure. It may feel like you're crippled, but really, you're just going back to the SOP.

I think that's what's happened, is that we were doing awesome for a really long time, and then of course, it finally snapped back. Now, it feels like we're screwed, but really, we're just less well off.

That's not what is happening to many. Jobs have been lost, never to be found again. Especially true for over 50. Many that have found jobs are drastically underemployed, by both experience and education. Many more ware working part-time, not making ends meet. Thanks to the policies that are being implemented, the chances of foreclosures rises by the week, which of course will lower the value of those whose homes are not at risk.

[Pagan]

With this so called free market free for all what is happening is redistribution of wealth on a Global scale. How is that?

Well decent paying jobs are being sucked overseas into country's that $10k a year is a damn good living. This is due to no labor, environmental, etc. laws not to mention China that has actual slave labor camps. Like for example a C coder in the U.S. who has to pay for their Collage, a good $80 - $100k in loans. Then maintain their certs and additional training, oh throw in another $10k a year. Not to mention living expenses like home, power and light. So a C coder who starts out around $70k a year the job gets outsourced to India where the Indian Government funds the collage, cost of living is cheap so they can make a good living at $20k a year.

Anyway this is just a small sample, professional jobs like accounting (did you know the IRS outsources 1040 tax processing to India?), development, coding, etc., etc. etc. So what's left here in the U.S. are a "few" decent paying jobs while the job creation is overseas from all those outsourced here.

So it's redistribution of wealth on a global scale, their standard of living is rising and ours is falling like a rock.

We're fucked.

[DragonStryk72]

That's not what is happening to many. Jobs have been lost, never to be found again. Especially true for over 50. Many that have found jobs are drastically underemployed, by both experience and education. Many more ware working part-time, not making ends meet. Thanks to the policies that are being implemented, the chances of foreclosures rises by the week, which of course will lower the value of those whose homes are not at risk.

I'm saying this as one of those folks laid off, actually. Remember my board post about becoming homeless for a bit? Yes, there is a drop, and it appears like a crisis, but I just don't think it is.

For a long while, we had a surging economy. Of course people acted like it was the normal way of things for a time, and so the economic model, which for retail goes by sales plan (Usually whatever they made last year on that day plus 5-10%), reacted accordingly, but sales can't just keep going up indefinitely. It doesn't work like that, and that's sort of where the problem comes in.

Yeah, it sucks right now, but the fact is, more than a growing economy, we need a stable economy. At least some of the people who got slapped with lay-offs are going to manage to find something, even if it's not exactly what they wanted. I'm one of these guys, after doing a project for my business course that had me draft a business plan, and discovering that I would very much love to own and operate my own store.

People are waiting for the economy to go back, but I think the sooner that people stop it expecting that, the sooner they'll deal with the reality they're in. Same way I got out of homelessness.

[fj1200]

With this so called free market free for all what is happening is redistribution of wealth on a Global scale. How is that?

...

So it's redistribution of wealth on a global scale, their standard of living is rising and ours is falling like a rock.

We're fucked.

We're "F'ed" because we've been continuously ignoring the competitive business policies of the US. Other countries have been working to catch up to us while we've been treating the private sector as the vehicle to enforce social policy.

This garbage about being afraid of China is misguided, they are a third world country with a per capita GDP of 1/10 of ours. After WWII, Europe was completely destroyed and their economies rebounded, standards of living increased, and the US maintained our lead; Japan was destroyed and their economy rebounded, standard of living increased, and the US maintained our lead. We can't be afraid of other countries advancing their economies and increasing their standard of living. The US just needs to revamp their fiscal and regulatory policies as they relate to corporate competitiveness and get out of the way.

[fj1200]

Yeah, it sucks right now, but the fact is, more than a growing economy, we need a stable economy...

People are waiting for the economy to go back, but I think the sooner that people stop it expecting that, the sooner they'll deal with the reality they're in. Same way I got out of homelessness.

A stable economy is a growing economy especially right now. Not to mention expansion for population growth, we need expansion to alleviate the 10% unemployment rate and the underemployment rate which is much higher. This doesn't even mention that our fiscal situation is only going to be solved by growing our way out of it. Let's face it, spending is not going to go down much if any so that means we need to grow the revenue side. Spending in the 90s did not decrease so much as the rate of growth was held down, that along with an expanding economy is what led to the budget "surpluses."

But you could be right, let's aim for mediocrity.

[DragonStryk72]

A stable economy is a growing economy especially right now. Not to mention expansion for population growth, we need expansion to alleviate the 10% unemployment rate and the underemployment rate which is much higher. This doesn't even mention that our fiscal situation is only going to be solved by growing our way out of it. Let's face it, spending is not going to go down much if any so that means we need to grow the revenue side. Spending in the 90s did not decrease so much as the rate of growth was held down, that along with an expanding economy is what led to the budget "surpluses."

But you could be right, let's aim for mediocrity.

As opposed to boom & bust, where we're now in the "bust" category. Think of it like mutual funds. they're not really the most fun way to invest your money, but they're stable, and can easily become the foundation of a great portfolio. We don't have that, we keep trying to push the economy in a way the economy can't go, and then react with shock when it turns out it doesn't work that way.

Part of the reason we got to where we are is having a stable economy, where the government jumped in only where it was absolutely needed. Somewhere in, they got this idea that they were wonderful businessmen, and that they could "fix" what was "broken" in the economy. of course, that hasn't worked at all, but they don't seem to be ready to quit trying yet.

[fj1200]

As opposed to boom & bust, where we're now in the "bust" category. Think of it like mutual funds. they're not really the most fun way to invest your money, but they're stable, and can easily become the foundation of a great portfolio. We don't have that, we keep trying to push the economy in a way the economy can't go, and then react with shock when it turns out it doesn't work that way.

Part of the reason we got to where we are is having a stable economy, where the government jumped in only where it was absolutely needed. Somewhere in, they got this idea that they were wonderful businessmen, and that they could "fix" what was "broken" in the economy. of course, that hasn't worked at all, but they don't seem to be ready to quit trying yet.

A. That doesn't address my point.
B. "Busts" are generally brought about by policy makers and their propensity to intervene in functioning markets. Be it fiscal, regulatory, or monetary (by the Fed) interventions lead to a change in private sector behavior which leads to changes in output blah, blah, blah...

They rarely intervene "only where needed" they intervene whenever they get their dander up. That's the problem.