Real" Unemployment Could Surge to 25%,

[red states rule]

Anyone remember when unemployment was around 6% how Dems said it was the "worst economy since the great depression"?




Real" Unemployment Could Surge to 25%,

With Wednesday's ADP report and Thursday's jobless claims data laying the groundwork for Friday's unemployment report, there's an intense focus on jobs from Wall Street to Washington D.C. and beyond.

But there's really only one jobs figure that matters, says John Lekas, senior portfolio manager for the $320 million Leader Short-Term Bond Fund: The U-6 or "real" unemployment number.

U6 is more important than the headline unemployment rate because it includes both the unemployed and "underemployed" workers faced with reduced hours who "still can't pay their bills," Lekas tells Aaron in the accompanying clip. "I think that's a more representative number."

More jobs weakness ahead. More bearish than most, Lekas sees the headline unemployment rate rising to 10% in February and climbing to 15% or 16% by mid-year. Even more dire, he sees the "real" unemployment figure surging to 25%.

Lekas says companies still are focused on cutting costs and jobs to protect their top and bottom lines. Plus, an in-house compilation of household data shows Americans are under water, with unpaid bills and expenses outpacing income by hundreds of dollars a month. That should keep consumer spending down, which means less sales for companies and, thus, less incentive for them to add to payrolls.

http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/%22real%22-unemployment-could-surge-to-25-portfolio-manager-says-435911.html?tickers=%5Edji,%5Egspc,dia,spy,man,LCC MX,KELYA

[Kathianne]

Anyone remember when unemployment was around 6% how Dems said it was the "worst economy since the great depression"?

I am more pessimistic. All the games that have already been played through printing money, artificially trying to hold home prices, bringing borrowing down to near 0% are laying the basics for something worse than the depression. Nearly all aspects of real and future economy have been manipulated.

In 1929 less than 5% of people were involved in the stock market. While most of us learned that the run on banks came from the crash, most of the failures came several years later. The weak banks had actually failed before the crash. The runs began after bad foreign policy choices, sending European banks crashing down, spreading a worse depression there and driving the failures here.

I see little hope of a better economy from what is occurring now. People are going about their business, hoping to hold onto their jobs, businesses, homes. They are uncertain as the government seems to be throwing money with little purpose here and there. Meanwhile they want to control more and more of our daily lives. I don't know about the rest of the country, but here it's daily news that the public schools are not replacing retiring teachers, many districts are not rehiring any non-tenured teachers, and several are pink slipping hundreds, even thousands of tenured teachers. Private schools are closing.

Police, fire, libraries, and city workers are being laid off and no hiring. I guess those are jobs lost and not created? States are not giving back the overpayment of taxes owed to people, many of which need the money for necessities-but the government controls it.

[CSM]

You make a great point about the government throwing money around to no purpose. It is having even less effect. Our government is flailing and thrashing like a drowning man. I just hope it isn't really a dying quiver!

[red states rule]

I am more pessimistic. All the games that have already been played through printing money, artificially trying to hold home prices, bringing borrowing down to near 0% are laying the basics for something worse than the depression. Nearly all aspects of real and future economy have been manipulated.

In 1929 less than 5% of people were involved in the stock market. While most of us learned that the run on banks came from the crash, most of the failures came several years later. The weak banks had actually failed before the crash. The runs began after bad foreign policy choices, sending European banks crashing down, spreading a worse depression there and driving the failures here.

I see little hope of a better economy from what is occurring now. People are going about their business, hoping to hold onto their jobs, businesses, homes. They are uncertain as the government seems to be throwing money with little purpose here and there. Meanwhile they want to control more and more of our daily lives. I don't know about the rest of the country, but here it's daily news that the public schools are not replacing retiring teachers, many districts are not rehiring any non-tenured teachers, and several are pink slipping hundreds, even thousands of tenured teachers. Private schools are closing.

Police, fire, libraries, and city workers are being laid off and no hiring. I guess those are jobs lost and not created? States are not giving back the overpayment of taxes owed to people, many of which need the money for necessities-but the government controls it.

I hope you are wrong Kathianne - but you make a solid case

It's amazing that so many people think that the government taking over everything they can in sight, and spending us into oblivion, will not have any disasterous consequences

[KarlMarx]

Well, I can't say that I am going to disagree with any of this. Things *ARE* bad, really bad...

but just to bring a ray of hope to some (and no thanks to that Blockhead in the White House or his lick boot cronies in Congress), some analysts think that we are poised for a recovery... the question is when....

http://news.morningstar.com/articlenet/article.aspx?id=330438

[CSM]

We may be on the way to recovery but I can't help but wonder how bad the scar is going to be.

[Kathianne]

Well, I can't say that I am going to disagree with any of this. Things *ARE* bad, really bad...

but just to bring a ray of hope to some (and no thanks to that Blockhead in the White House or his lick boot cronies in Congress), some analysts think that we are poised for a recovery... the question is when....

http://news.morningstar.com/articlenet/article.aspx?id=330438

The administration is looking at the stock market, it is closing in on 11k, perhaps next week? Well it may be that the companies were just waiting for HCR to pass, take their hits with IRS, then go on a hiring binge? I doubt that.

I think that the rich are getting much richer and soon will be bailing, guess who'll be left? Those that weren't wiped out with their 401's last time. Those in retirement funds. Double bubble would be my guess. I hope I'm wrong, but have seen nothing in my local economy to think so. No new stores opening, though closings have slowed. No new hiring, other than at gas stations and mini-malls.

In the past few days there have been more stories of public layoffs, including Gary Fire Department. Early 2011 they will lay off another 50 firefighters. They've dropped from nearly 800 firefighters in 2007 to nearing 400 today. Gary is poor, they have lots of below code buildings. They have lots of arson. If 'we' are feeling the effects of the economy we'll have to tighten our belts or go live with family or perhaps start our own businesses if possible. The poor, the real poor, they'll be vulnerable to the results of reduced fire protection, unscrupulous landlords and arson. They may pay with their lives.

What's wrong with the economy is the government and the problems with it span decades, in fact the nature of government has grown out of control. This administration is just the highpoint of what is wrong. Final outcome? Who knows, but what I do know is the people need to address this together, not coming apart along ideological and racial lines. However, that is what is happening. Bad is going to get much, much worse.

[CSM]

People are coming apart along ideological/racial lines because that is the seam our idiot politicians exploit to achieve and retain power. They (the pols that is) can rant about bipartisanship all they want but that divisiveness is exactly what they need to sustain their very existence.

[Kathianne]

People are coming apart along ideological/racial lines because that is the seam our idiot politicians exploit to achieve and retain power. They (the pols that is) can rant about bipartisanship all they want but that divisiveness is exactly what they need to sustain their very existence.

Agreed. The fools that are falling for the divisiveness don't recognize they are being played.