chloe
01-26-2010, 08:27 AM
If you hear the word BIC in Davos this week, don’t think people are talking about the French pen company, although it may present a temporary but lucrative marketing opportunity.
<TABLE style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 15px; PADDING-TOP: 5px" border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="1%" align=left><TBODY><TR><TD>http://media.cnbc.com/i/CNBC/Sections/News_And_Analysis/__Story_Inserts/graphics/__ECONOMY/global_markets_up_200.jpg</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>When it comes to global growth this year, BIC will lead the way—Brazil, India and China, though probably in reverse order. (Forget BRIC, as Russia may not even emerge from recession in 2010 without a jump in oil prices, according to some economists.)
Developing Asia, Latin America and even the Middle East will also post above average growth rates with the weakest showings coming from Japan, Europe and the U.S. (in that order).
“This is shaping up to be a two-speed global recovery,” says Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at Global Insight, who’ll be among the 2,500 people at the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland Jan. 27-30.
"The emerging economies of Asia are certainly putting in a strong performance,” says Eswar Prasad, a former IMF economist now with Cornell University and The Brookings Institution. “They were strong in 2009 and they are likely to turn in an even stronger performance in 2010. The big question is whether this is going to be a sustainable performance because of domestic demand.”
That's a common assessment, from Wall Street economists to academics to NGOs, such as the World Bank, and may wind up being an important area of discussion at the event, whose main theme is the amorphous, "Rethink, Redesign, Rebuild”.
Those three Rs are already part of the global economic dynamic. The U.S. and most countries in Europe will continue to pay a price for the debt boom of the past decade, which many emerging markets—from Thailand to South Korea to Brazil—avoided, having suffered from a crippling one of their own making in the 1990s.
Even more painful will be Japan’s continuing struggle to emerge from a two-decade long economic slump, which made it all the more vulnerable to the global crisis of 2009-2009.
“Japan is a very important case study for the global economy,” says Paul Sheard, global chief economist at Nomura Securities. “It’s a story of policy error."
“Looking beyond the crisis, we are moving to a much different economic environment with growth being much more diffuse,” says Mansoor Dailami, economist and manager of the development prospects group at the World Bank. “If you project the whole shift in the economic balance, it is a multi-polar order, such that in the next five, ten years, you will see a multiplicity off economic powers.”
The World Bank in late January raised its forecast for global growth this year to 2.7 percent, versus a decline of 2.2 percent in 2009. Global GDP growth for 2011 is projected to be even stronger—at 3.2 percent.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/34844575 (http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/EXTDEC/EXTDECPROSPECTS/GEPEXT/EXTGEP2010/0,,menuPK:6665259~pagePK:64167702~piPK:64167676~th eSitePK:6665253,00.html)
<TABLE style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 15px; PADDING-TOP: 5px" border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="1%" align=left><TBODY><TR><TD>http://media.cnbc.com/i/CNBC/Sections/News_And_Analysis/__Story_Inserts/graphics/__ECONOMY/global_markets_up_200.jpg</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>When it comes to global growth this year, BIC will lead the way—Brazil, India and China, though probably in reverse order. (Forget BRIC, as Russia may not even emerge from recession in 2010 without a jump in oil prices, according to some economists.)
Developing Asia, Latin America and even the Middle East will also post above average growth rates with the weakest showings coming from Japan, Europe and the U.S. (in that order).
“This is shaping up to be a two-speed global recovery,” says Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at Global Insight, who’ll be among the 2,500 people at the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland Jan. 27-30.
"The emerging economies of Asia are certainly putting in a strong performance,” says Eswar Prasad, a former IMF economist now with Cornell University and The Brookings Institution. “They were strong in 2009 and they are likely to turn in an even stronger performance in 2010. The big question is whether this is going to be a sustainable performance because of domestic demand.”
That's a common assessment, from Wall Street economists to academics to NGOs, such as the World Bank, and may wind up being an important area of discussion at the event, whose main theme is the amorphous, "Rethink, Redesign, Rebuild”.
Those three Rs are already part of the global economic dynamic. The U.S. and most countries in Europe will continue to pay a price for the debt boom of the past decade, which many emerging markets—from Thailand to South Korea to Brazil—avoided, having suffered from a crippling one of their own making in the 1990s.
Even more painful will be Japan’s continuing struggle to emerge from a two-decade long economic slump, which made it all the more vulnerable to the global crisis of 2009-2009.
“Japan is a very important case study for the global economy,” says Paul Sheard, global chief economist at Nomura Securities. “It’s a story of policy error."
“Looking beyond the crisis, we are moving to a much different economic environment with growth being much more diffuse,” says Mansoor Dailami, economist and manager of the development prospects group at the World Bank. “If you project the whole shift in the economic balance, it is a multi-polar order, such that in the next five, ten years, you will see a multiplicity off economic powers.”
The World Bank in late January raised its forecast for global growth this year to 2.7 percent, versus a decline of 2.2 percent in 2009. Global GDP growth for 2011 is projected to be even stronger—at 3.2 percent.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/34844575 (http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/EXTDEC/EXTDECPROSPECTS/GEPEXT/EXTGEP2010/0,,menuPK:6665259~pagePK:64167702~piPK:64167676~th eSitePK:6665253,00.html)