Is swine flu more lethal than other "ordinary" flu bugs?

[Little-Acorn]

I'm not a doctor, and don't know much about these diseases other than what's on the news (a VERY suspect source).

The news has been full of alarming pronouncements on this "swine flu". But I've never heard anyone say why. Maybe I just listened at the wrong time.

Flu season happens every year, and lots of people get flu every year. And some of them die, every year.

I've now heard that a grand total of 7 people have died in the US from Swine Flu this year. How many people had died last year from whatever flu bug had hit, by the end of April?

More tellingly, out of all the people who have contracted swine flu, what percentage have died? And, out of all the people who contracted "ordinary" flu, what percentage have died?

I know, flu season isn't over yet, and some people who are going to die from SF this year, are still alive today. True also for the other flu bugs.

But you see the gist here. Is the swine flu any more lethal than other "ordinary" flu bugs? Anyone see any studies or medical reports etc., that indicate that SF kills more of its victims than other flu bugs?

[mundame]

We simply don't know yet what the mortality is, is what I am hearing from both the news and CDC docs people on forums know personally.

Mexico has bad public health systems and poor people cannot get treated. So no wonder people die. Also, it is probably spreading widely to millions there, so even a small percentage mortality would cause deaths.

"Normal" influenza has a mortality rate of about 0.05, IIRC. Very small, anyway. BUT ----------- millions get it!! So 36,000 die of influenza (actually, from the pneumonia secondary to it) every year.

If this Mexican flu has a 1% mortality, that would be 10,000 people dead for every million who caught it, and in a widespread pandemic that would be a lot of people, but the great majority would recover all right.

SARS had a 10% mortality!! That is HUGE for any disease. SARS was the real deal, the "Big One." I doubt this Mexican Flu is anything close to that.

[glockmail]

I'm not a doctor, and don't know much about these diseases other than what's on the news (a VERY suspect source).

The news has been full of alarming pronouncements on this "swine flu". But I've never heard anyone say why. Maybe I just listened at the wrong time.

Flu season happens every year, and lots of people get flu every year. And some of them die, every year.

I've now heard that a grand total of 7 people have died in the US from Swine Flu this year. How many people had died last year from whatever flu bug had hit, by the end of April?

More tellingly, out of all the people who have contracted swine flu, what percentage have died? And, out of all the people who contracted "ordinary" flu, what percentage have died?

I know, flu season isn't over yet, and some people who are going to die from SF this year, are still alive today. True also for the other flu bugs.

But you see the gist here. Is the swine flu any more lethal than other "ordinary" flu bugs? Anyone see any studies or medical reports etc., that indicate that SF kills more of its victims than other flu bugs?

The US suffered some swine flue events in the early part of the 20th century, prior to modern anti viral medicines. That's what the panic's about. "Normal" flu is "Asian", spread by the prevailing winds. I'm not sure that there is any difference in viability.

[Kathianne]

I'm not a doctor, and don't know much about these diseases other than what's on the news (a VERY suspect source).

The news has been full of alarming pronouncements on this "swine flu". But I've never heard anyone say why. Maybe I just listened at the wrong time.

Flu season happens every year, and lots of people get flu every year. And some of them die, every year.

I've now heard that a grand total of 7 people have died in the US from Swine Flu this year. How many people had died last year from whatever flu bug had hit, by the end of April?

More tellingly, out of all the people who have contracted swine flu, what percentage have died? And, out of all the people who contracted "ordinary" flu, what percentage have died?

I know, flu season isn't over yet, and some people who are going to die from SF this year, are still alive today. True also for the other flu bugs.

But you see the gist here. Is the swine flu any more lethal than other "ordinary" flu bugs? Anyone see any studies or medical reports etc., that indicate that SF kills more of its victims than other flu bugs?

Actually that's what's sort of weird and maybe good, flu season really is 'over' here:

http://www.google.org/flutrends/

[Kathianne]

More here:

http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/

[Missileman]

I'm not a doctor, and don't know much about these diseases other than what's on the news (a VERY suspect source).

The news has been full of alarming pronouncements on this "swine flu". But I've never heard anyone say why. Maybe I just listened at the wrong time.

Flu season happens every year, and lots of people get flu every year. And some of them die, every year.

I've now heard that a grand total of 7 people have died in the US from Swine Flu this year. How many people had died last year from whatever flu bug had hit, by the end of April?

More tellingly, out of all the people who have contracted swine flu, what percentage have died? And, out of all the people who contracted "ordinary" flu, what percentage have died?

I know, flu season isn't over yet, and some people who are going to die from SF this year, are still alive today. True also for the other flu bugs.

But you see the gist here. Is the swine flu any more lethal than other "ordinary" flu bugs? Anyone see any studies or medical reports etc., that indicate that SF kills more of its victims than other flu bugs?

What I heard today is that this is some avian/swine/human flu hybrid. That it is killing otherwise healthy young adults seems to be the main concern.

[Kathianne]

What I heard today is that this is some avian/swine/human flu hybrid. That it is killing otherwise healthy young adults seems to be the main concern.

Yep, from the beginning that's what I've gotten. Rather than predominately elderly and youngest.

[jimnyc]

Until I hear otherwise, I'm treating this very seriously. One case has been confirmed in New Rochelle, NY and another in Rye, NY - both of which are 3 miles from my town. My son is forever at the YMCA in Rye which is probably a cesspool of germs. There are also dozens of cases in Queens which is only about 20 minutes from me.

We've been educating our son about the flu, coughing and sneezing (covering your mouth) and all the other precautions. I just got him 5 of the travel hand sanitizer bottles so he can clean his hands throughout the day wherever he may be.

[Kathianne]

Until I hear otherwise, I'm treating this very seriously. One case has been confirmed in New Rochelle, NY and another in Rye, NY - both of which are 3 miles from my town. My son is forever at the YMCA in Rye which is probably a cesspool of germs. There are also dozens of cases in Queens which is only about 20 minutes from me.

We've been educating our son about the flu, coughing and sneezing (covering your mouth) and all the other precautions. I just got him 5 of the travel hand sanitizer bottles so he can clean his hands throughout the day wherever he may be.

That's a good idea, educating you son about how to deal with. Memo though, the sanitizers are bacterial killing, not viral. Me? I'm considering bringing bleach water in the morning for desks, computer keyboards, and door knobs. At the same time, there are several kids that are coughing, sneezing and freaking me out! :laugh2:

[jimnyc]

That's a good idea, educating you son about how to deal with. Memo though, the sanitizers are bacterial killing, not viral. Me? I'm considering bringing bleach water in the morning for desks, computer keyboards, and door knobs. At the same time, there are several kids that are coughing, sneezing and freaking me out! :laugh2:

Schools have to be the worst, and you have to breath the air these little germ carrying bastards spit out! I'll bet most don't cover their mouths and probably wipe their noses on their sleeves. I'd go to work wearing a CDC uniform if I were you!

[Kathianne]

Schools have to be the worst, and you have to breath the air these little germ carrying bastards spit out! I'll bet most don't cover their mouths and probably wipe their noses on their sleeves. I'd go to work wearing a CDC uniform if I were you!

Schools are hotbeds for germs. Obama seems to be hinting at closing the hot houses, but unless the government will order kids to stay out of malls, movie theaters, gaming areas; not a good idea. Whenever closing a school is necessary, got to keep in mind why, then follow through.

[Creek]

Not just soley from a health stand point for those who just decided to brush this by as another flu type senario...

Or to blame it on a political party..Or make a debate to how dangererous this really is,or could be..

I am in disbelief that anyone here could make this into a political type situation pointing fingers right now.

While some people were playing golf..some were taking more time letting everybody know our president was playing golf instead of being in the lab with the petri dish themself trying to find a cure..:)

It's just so stupid...I hate to say that..But one of the first original posts here on this very subject reflected that.

Even the same fools respond with something they politicaly read..using a news article to confirm there thoughts are right on target.

Some things are not a debate.

It's the reaction we have to it as a population,and let us not leave out the economy,and it's effect it will have on that.Whether it be panic,or a reality type senario it would play out on it.

It's not a thing to debate when something like this "IS" happening.It is a horrible thing,and a scary thing that's happening to families as I write this.

Lota good feed-back to this post..and I think all the replies to the original post are right on target..this is serious.

I take this serious as hell too..

I think alot of people who just brush this off comparing it to how many people die of this,or that...malaria,and other horrible viruses..Forget that mothers & fathers have watched there young loved ones die of Hand-Foot and Mouth Disease over in China for years ..Africa etc..etc...You get my point.

We in the U.S have been immune for sometime of these horrible things.

I think Jimnyc hit the nail right on the head on this one...This is serious shit.

Especially when it comes to loved ones...Nothing to debate about that in the least.

Leave the debating to the politcal & religous aspects to this..This is a current event that history itself will remember..not who's in office.

It's very well possible when this dam virus runs its course...we could all know personaly one person who died from this swine flu crap.

I've read/researched for the last week everything possible to know about this virus from all sides of the fences.

I think if alot of you researched this subject more..You'd understand more that it's more likely shit like this is .."Is A Matter Of When"...You all know an astroid..or meteor will cause our destruction somewhere in time...But a so called "flu bug" is something alot of us can't grasp..or take serious.

What is it you want?..A 90% caualty rate in order to take this serious?...Or you won't take it serious till it out numbers the totaly malaria deaths each year?

We all know our medical standards are better than the flu pandemic of 1918..but our economy will still face the same disasters..A thought came to mind now as I write this.That even if 5%-10% came down with this virus in this country..we'd so totaly overwhelm the hospitals...That if any percentage greater we would not be able to keep up with them..That would be a disaster in itself.More people could die from other cause..from this particular virus itself.

Even a 1/100 senario would devistate this country.

You can't take into effect that those who brush this off,and those that panic are those of the same class....

They are the ones that will over burden the system.

Alot don't know any better that the CDC..and WHO know a little bit more than ourselves in the current situation.Distrust them all you want...but they are ahead of the game in the future outlook....Sad thing is...you'd be the last to know from them when shit really does hit the fan...It is a catch 22.

It's not who's falling ill with this crap at the moment..and recovering..It's what this virus is capable of once it has a good understanding of it's host.That be us..:)

Nothing is gona happen..or all hell is gona break lose.

Ok...gota go..See you all at space camp next week.

Creek

[Nukeman]

Not just soley from a health stand point for those who just decided to brush this by as another flu type senario...

Or to blame it on a political party..Or make a debate to how dangererous this really is,or could be..

I am in disbelief that anyone here could make this into a political type situation pointing fingers right now.

While some people were playing golf..some were taking more time letting everybody know our president was playing golf instead of being in the lab with the petri dish themself trying to find a cure..:)

It's just so stupid...I hate to say that..But one of the first original posts here on this very subject reflected that.

Even the same fools respond with something they politicaly read..using a news article to confirm there thoughts are right on target.

Some things are not a debate.

It's the reaction we have to it as a population,and let us not leave out the economy,and it's effect it will have on that.Whether it be panic,or a reality type senario it would play out on it.

It's not a thing to debate when something like this "IS" happening.It is a horrible thing,and a scary thing that's happening to families as I write this.

Lota good feed-back to this post..and I think all the replies to the original post are right on target..this is serious.

I take this serious as hell too..

I think alot of people who just brush this off comparing it to how many people die of this,or that...malaria,and other horrible viruses..Forget that mothers & fathers have watched there young loved ones die of Hand-Foot and Mouth Disease over in China for years ..Africa etc..etc...You get my point.

We in the U.S have been immune for sometime of these horrible things.

I think Jimnyc hit the nail right on the head on this one...This is serious shit.

Especially when it comes to loved ones...Nothing to debate about that in the least.

Leave the debating to the politcal & religous aspects to this..This is a current event that history itself will remember..not who's in office.

It's very well possible when this dam virus runs its course...we could all know personaly one person who died from this swine flu crap.

I've read/researched for the last week everything possible to know about this virus from all sides of the fences.

I think if alot of you researched this subject more..You'd understand more that it's more likely shit like this is .."Is A Matter Of When"...You all know an astroid..or meteor will cause our destruction somewhere in time...But a so called "flu bug" is something alot of us can't grasp..or take serious.

What is it you want?..A 90% caualty rate in order to take this serious?...Or you won't take it serious till it out numbers the totaly malaria deaths each year?

We all know our medical standards are better than the flu pandemic of 1918..but our economy will still face the same disasters..A thought came to mind now as I write this.That even if 5%-10% came down with this virus in this country..we'd so totaly overwhelm the hospitals...That if any percentage greater we would not be able to keep up with them..That would be a disaster in itself.More people could die from other cause..from this particular virus itself.

Even a 1/100 senario would devistate this country.

You can't take into effect that those who brush this off,and those that panic are those of the same class....

They are the ones that will over burden the system.

Alot don't know any better that the CDC..and WHO know a little bit more than ourselves in the current situation.Distrust them all you want...but they are ahead of the game in the future outlook....Sad thing is...you'd be the last to know from them when shit really does hit the fan...It is a catch 22.

It's not who's falling ill with this crap at the moment..and recovering..It's what this virus is capable of once it has a good understanding of it's host.That be us..:)

Nothing is gona happen..or all hell is gona break lose.

Ok...gota go..See you all at space camp next week.

CreekOK a lot of "rambling" there! I think you will find most of us here take this seriously, however the big thing for the WHO and the CDC is the "not knowing" how easy this is spreading. It is the unknown variables that are frieghtening the powers that be. So far the world has had "VERY" few deaths from this flu strain, it has not showed a high transfer rate .....yet....

In the US alone in a typical flu season 1/4 of the population get the flu (that is almost 80 million people), out of those over 2 million will be hospitalized and approx. 35-40 thousand will die. We are NO WHERE near those numbers it is the unknown that has the health organizations spooked so going off half cocked and getting everyone into panic mode right now is just crazy......

[mundame]

Strange that Mexico has totally shut down all business today, trying to keep people from infecting each other.

But here, the flu has fallen off the news pages and the stock market is discounting it completely -- the market has been up for two days.

I thought the Mexican flu might be a three-day wonder, and it looks like that right now.

The Wall Street Journal says the CDC is trying to decide whether to make a special vaccine for this, or include it in the regularly distributed flu vaccine. They can't decide how serious it is yet.

[Nukeman]

Strange that Mexico has totally shut down all business today, trying to keep people from infecting each other.

But here, the flu has fallen off the news pages and the stock market is discounting it completely -- the market has been up for two days.

I thought the Mexican flu might be a three-day wonder, and it looks like that right now.

The Wall Street Journal says the CDC is trying to decide whether to make a special vaccine for this, or include it in the regularly distributed flu vaccine. They can't decide how serious it is yet.

keep in mind the ability of the Mexican Government to handle ANY type medical emergency. thier best way of handling this is to prevent, that is why they are closing things down.

[mundame]

keep in mind the ability of the Mexican Government to handle ANY type medical emergency. thier best way of handling this is to prevent, that is why they are closing things down.


I expect you are right, Nukeman. I also heard on another forum that the holiday Cinquo de Mayo is May 5, soon, and usually is celebrated with huge assemblies of people and parades --- they may be trying to stop that holiday from spreading infection.

There is often a lot of air passenger traffic to Mexico -- and back -- at that time, so that would be a big infection source, but the flights have been stopped.

[Creek]

OK a lot of "rambling" there! I think you will find most of us here take this seriously, however the big thing for the WHO and the CDC is the "not knowing" how easy this is spreading. It is the unknown variables that are frieghtening the powers that be. So far the world has had "VERY" few deaths from this flu strain, it has not showed a high transfer rate .....yet....

In the US alone in a typical flu season 1/4 of the population get the flu (that is almost 80 million people), out of those over 2 million will be hospitalized and approx. 35-40 thousand will die. We are NO WHERE near those numbers it is the unknown that has the health organizations spooked so going off half cocked and getting everyone into panic mode right now is just crazy......

I agree with all you said...and this is just my opinion gathered from the crap I've read.

I feel you have a good understanding on how you feel as well,and I'm not gona debate on that a bit..You made good sense & came across well founded.:)..(handhsake).

WHO..(World Health Orginization) raised the alert level to a Level 5..The defination of that alone is they feel pretty confident possibly the spread of this,whether it be mild..or severe is possible..Don't see any confusion from them about how catchy this is.WHO itself that may come across as unsure about the situation...but uses a Level 5 at the same time to describe the current situation-->

http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/phase/en/index.html

Quote from the WHO Website :

"Phase 5 is characterized by human-to-human spread of the virus into at least two countries in one WHO region. While most countries will not be affected at this stage, the declaration of Phase 5 is a strong signal that a pandemic is imminent and that the time to finalize the organization, communication, and implementation of the planned mitigation measures is short."

End of Quote :

My opinion..and what I feel is nobody is sure what this will be,or how this virus will unravel itself.

I've read articles by Dr's that go both way on the subject..and to be just about it..I'll post a link to some sources that this virus is being over exaggerated...It's like this whole situation is no more than covering the spread of the common flu-->

http://www.latimes.com/features/health/la-sci-swine-reality30-2009apr30,0,3606923.story

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/may/01/dr-john-crippen-swine-flu


http://thehill.com/leading-the-news/mexican-ambassador-flus-reach-exaggerated-2009-04-30.html

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/la-sci-swine-reality30-2009apr30,0,5923718.story

So I get your point...no argument there..:)

I'll just say that following this whole situation from the begining,that your average joe only has news sources to go by,and is watching this thing unfold..that this situation changes day..to day.

I could post links that this thing is just adjusting to it's human host,and gona come back when flu season hits...and hit hard.

Post links from various other professionals in the health care..epidemic specialists comparing this similiar to the 1918 outbreak...We've all read that crap already...

I also think the CDC's & WHO Websites suck...because they do come across like they are still in the 19th century..especialy in a website that's about as informational as CNN...

A person can get more information surfing the web..than visiting there website to get an understanding on what's happening.

That's off topic..so please forgive...

This has been a day..to day situation for alot of us...Going on the flow of understanding what's happening,and the day..to day news that we all seek to come up with a notion in what is happening.

The news has died down on this a little..from reading todays current news about the situation..

I guess I could say..that if this thing does blow off..we've learned some on what a possible senario would be like.

And the dam thing would show up in New York if something like this happens again...I always think of Jim there..and remember 911.

That was the only reason why I posted to this article...

I read about the possible cases in New York..and came here to see what was happening.I thought about Jim..and his kids...and more trouble in New York because of this.

Might of came off as rabmbles..but I meant well.

I hope this does blow over..and well spoken words Nukeman.

Peace....

[Nukeman]

the WHO organization has its "standards" for elevating their level of severety but I will point out that as soon as there was a case in the US and Mexico that is a "level 5" you could have only one case in two neighbouring countries and as long as they caught it from each other than that would be their definition of a level 5.

This strain has not shown a easy transfer rate.........yet...... and I say yet because we just don't know.... is it prudent for all of us to be careful??? Heck yaa!!! do we need to stop everything we are doing???? Heck no!!!

As long as everyone practices cleanliness and prevention than this too shall pass. I think in the end we will see this as a precursor of what is possible but I really don't think this is going to be "the big one" at least not in the US........ IMHO

I have not seen any increase in the number of flu or seriously sick individuals in the hospital here......