Hey Emmett!

[Abbey Marie]

I know that you do repo work. Do you see a strong correlation between our current mortgage/housing problems, and the repo business?

What I mean to ask is, do the same types of people get in trouble in pretty much the same ways, trying to pay for cars and houses they cannot really afford? Wasn't all this very avoidable? Also, do you think that helping people who default on their payments will improve anything?

[emmett]

I know that you do repo work. Do you see a strong correlation between our current mortgage/housing problems, and the repo business?

What I mean to ask is, do the same types of people get in trouble in pretty much the same ways, trying to pay for cars and houses they cannot really afford? Wasn't all this very avoidable? Also, do you think that helping people who default on their payments will improve anything?


To a point I do Abbey. People ask me all the time, sometimes in serious conversation and other times just a comment like, "I bet you're doing good right now!" Fact is, we do OK in a good economy. Having said this, yes, my associates and I are seeing a unique trend of higher ratios of visiting locations in the upper income areas to pick up things like RV's, expensive equipment and other not so usual items.

In the late eighties and more so in the early nineties i started to notice a trend of repo work moving into the neighborhoods where we didn't usually go. Looking beneath the ink we can see a picture here. Did it mean that we were seeing a lesser standard in who we authorized credit to in the way of the homeowner or were we just trying to build opportunity for the consumer in an attempt to sell American products and compete. Actually... both!

I've kept my eye on this scenarion for quite a while and must admit that I believe I get a unique insight in this regard. Lately I have as mentioned been visiting people who I would never have imagined to be irresponsible buyers, or any of the other reasons we tend to lend as a label to a lot of the current folks who are in trouble. Some of this is the normal result of a competitive market environment, competitor steals a big piece of business, thereby causing a company to have to replace it quickly, which inspires them to sell based on price, etc,... This also lessens the quality of products essentially. Now that is a little off subject but is assimilated to our topic. The end result is ... I am standing in the yard of one of the exec's who a year earlier was doing well but has been laid off or felt the brunt of the effect of those changes.

There are always going to be the deadbeats. Folks who even when things are great will not pay for what they have. The easier you make the credit to get , the more of those you have influencing the bottom line to the rest of us.

We are seeing alot more scammers, credit theives, and associated schemes. We work that kind of stuff also. This comes as a result of the obvious.

I'll post some related info later, numbers and so forth which you may find interesting concerning this subject.

[emmett]

OK.... had to go charge up my laptop. Currently I'm sitting in Augusta, Ga waiting for a lady to bring me a car I've been looking for .... for quite a while. She didn't want to be seen by her neighbors having her car repossessed. She is a real Estate agent in the area.

Repossessions at our company are not necessarily up in comparison to years past. You can go to Athens Banner Herald newspapers website to see an interview I gave to them just recently and see the article. Probably just keyword my forst name and repossession into the search article thing and see it. As I said in there, our business is up, meaning assignments, however we seem to be picking up only slightly more than say.... one year ago. There are several factors for this, a few of which are encouraging to us as a company.

While there is seemingly more assignments, currently, (avg days past due when assigned out - 87), than in November 07 (avg days past due - 69), we are only up around 10% in revenue for November 08, over November 07. Yes we are behind so I have to use November. The amount of assigments compares another way. Our ratio of recovery is around 18% less in 08 than 07. Were we less effiecient? No. We actually picked up 10% more cars but we had so many more assignments and believe we had properly geared ourselves to the market requirements oin 07 so without adding staff and equipment, we were only subject to a slight improvement.

Now I'm sure the entrepreneurs would wonder why we didn't gear up heavily to expect the increase but that would be because of my philosophy that whatever goes up must come down. credit is drying up right now and I suspect next year assignments will be down as a result of this so I don't want the family to overextend in an effort to meet a peak demand. That would essentially place us in the same position as some of the folks we are visiting.

In the late 90s, Ford Motor Credit, GMAC and Chrysler greatly loosened their credit qualifying standards, just like the housing industry has been doing since say 94 or 5. A major contributing factor to the automakers woes have come as a result of this action. In 2000, it was pretty hard to be turned down for a new car. The labor unions and competition from the foriegners cut into any benefit this brought from increased sales however and soon you were seeing the 0 interest advertisements and so forth. That was a lose lose because the Japs were much better set for the fight than we were in that regard. Remember the Mitsubishi commercials? 0 down, 0interest for everyone, no payments until January of the following year. We were contractors for Mitsubishi Motor credit of America during that time and I can say with great confidence that it ruined the company. Seen a new Mitsu dealer being built lately? No. It broke the credit arm of the company and was designed to do exactly that. They still owe my family thousands.

One of the recent spin off problems with the new economy is the scammers. Naturally, there will always be those will seek to benefit from the pain of another. In newpapers all over the country there are now ads for companies who claim to make everything all brioght and fuzzy again. For instance, credit repair, counseling and of course, lawyers, swearing they can end your financial suffering if you will just come in and see them and let them explain how their painless services are just what you need. Here is another scam that is growing in popularity.

ABOUT TO HAVE YOUR CAR REPOSSESSED? WE CAN COMPLETELY ELIMINATE YOUR RESPONSIBILITY! Call 1 800 Whatever. What happens is you take your car to them and they put it on their lot so as to "lease" it to an unsuspecting buyer who thinks they are buying it or sometimes not. They don't care, they are so desperate to get in a high line auto without credit and no money down they just sign. Wa-lah...... your problem is solved. NOPE! The debtor is of course still responsible for the payments. When the new "lesser" makes the payments to the entity that has orchestrated the deal, they pocket it. Hence the average days past due thing. 87, sometimes 100, sometime more. Figure it out. 4 months payments made by the new lesser at 500 or 600 a month, times how many deals this scam artist can do in a three to four month period before he uproots and moves to another city or area and cranks up again.

Now the original debtor can't even find their car, even if they are served by a court order. Big trouble.

Another scam is to take the vehicle from the debtor, who signs their agreement to re-encumber it. The small print mentions a post sale inspection that must be done on the vehicle to make it marketable. Their up to date facility performs a 121 point check or whatever and finds all kinds of stuff that needs to be fixed. Your hooked. They did it already. They can't sell your car. You don't have the money to pick it back up. Of course, they didn't really do anything to the car, except maybe swipe the engine out of it and replace it with a faulty one, or transdmisson or rear end etc,.... Now there is a two or three thousand dollar mechanics lien on the vehicle before it will be released. Big profit! They are covered because the debtor authorized the work to be done. The lienholder has to pay the amount to repossess the car. I've worked tons of those scams over the years. When I finally finish my book you will see how I was involved in busting one of the biggest one of those rings in history! In Birmingham, Alabama! Just one of those right place at the right time things really!

As I have written before, personal responsibility is the first and foremost contributing reason we are in the mess we are in. It's hard. Here in America we have become such a nation of image seekers and material whores, excuse the expression, that we must just have it! The Jones' have one, damn, why can't we have one. Companies arbitrarily got themselves into this thing trying to be competitive. Intentions were good, execution was bad however. Planning was worse. Greed, bad standards and dishonest lawmakers contributed to the housing problem. Like Housing, a nice dependable car is a must and spending a hundred dollars more than you know you can afford is not hard to do when optimism is the order of the day.

In many of my front yeard conversations I have with debtors I learn a wealth of information about how they went to the dealership looking for a used car but came away with a new one because it was easier to finance. The sales man gets out there and opens up the doors, the hood, shows all the features, like the dual DVD players, electric seats, automatic this and automatic that and next thing they know they are in his office signing. What ever happened to the time when knowingly drove that old beater until the wheels rotted offf of it. It didn't have supersonic, automatic, subtronic, ultraphonics and the ones I drove (49 Dodge pickup), were good to have an air conditioner. We changed!


So, to make a long answer even longer I will say this. We got ourselves into this with bad decision making and refusal to be practical. We passed by our chance to get out of it by bad decision making and refusal to be practical. We have crippled our future economy, even under the cover of the brightest forecasts. As sure as the grass is green and the sky is blue, we are in deep deep deep do do.

[Psychoblues]

Are you saying that the upper incomers are hurting, emmie??!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!? Good lord, what will happen next!?!??!?!?!?!?!?!??! Do I need to be pissing down my leg and screaming that the sky is falling?!?!?!?!?!?!?!??!?!?!?!?!?!?

Just kidding you, emmie!!!!!!!!!!!

Could I offer you a Mississippi Corn Swallow,,,,,,,,,without the feathers?!?!?!?!??!!??!?!!?!?!?!

:beer::cheers2::beer:

Psychoblues

[emmett]

I'm just saying that the overall effect of the economy does seem to be far reaching. Not necessarily to the "upper incomers". Just to folks who were extended too much credit. It seems that no matter what the income level, people want to live a one level higher than they can afford. Its an epidemic.

One thing that the repo business has taught me is that bad things happen to good people. Take away the economy equation and there is still no shortage of scenarios involving the guy who loses his job and has to let go of the college kids car, or the family boat, etc,.... These things happen in a good economy. A world where we work for the same company for 30 years, retire, get our gold watch and move to Ft. Myers, Fla. was absent even before the new century seemed to bring to light this state we are in now.. Companies can form, rise and fall in a cycle of a fvew years. Companies don't move their employees and executives anymore. They down size and hire in the areas where they experience a pickup of business. We seem to have set the stage for a disaster over a long economical degeneration period.

Much can be learned from a ride in the country nowadays. Notice the skeletonized textile mills, and other closed businesses. The ball fields with ivy on the backstop and old mom and pop businesses that are now dead and the buildings are collapsing. Our economy seems to be crumbling with them. More and more people have to move to the cities in an effort to find employment or pursue their aspirations. It seems to me that many years ago we should have been able to see the warning signs that were apparent, in this evolution of sorts.

I like to attempt to peer inside the cause of this a little closer. Let us think for a moment about another detail that has greatly influenced this new era economy and its problems. As people began to migrate into the big cities, it created a much different looking voting block. Redistricting to accomodate the influx of population on the outskirts of major cities brought about interesting political developments. For instance, where did most of the construction of new homes take place? This left fewer political figures in connection with those who would influence how business was done, in the way of codes, contracts and so forth.Outer suburban areas right? For many years, we seemed to not be able to build houses fast enough to accomodate the growth of the population. This created an over abundance of companies that produced products for the housing industry. Take a look at some of these companies, look how many have gone under as a result of the stagnation of new home sales.

As Democrats were busy trying to set a stage friendly to the mortgage companies, being paid off and dined, we were crumbling. They claim to have fought for regulation, so as not to allow a circumstance like the present to take place. Fact is, it would have been worse! Setting rules for lenders to have to write a certain amount of risky loans to keep up with production of the new homes was a prescription for absolute failure. It brought us to where we are now in a sense although we were busy doing plenty of the damage without those factors.

What if housing and real estate would not have been the fast train that it was. The economy would certainly not have been as good per say in the 90s. Bill Clinton would not have been able to make his one claim to fame. I mean hell... we all admit that the only thing good about Bill was that the economy seemed to do pretty well under Clinton. Well.... maybe it was not as good as it seemed. The presciption for disaster was written on his watch. Not one Dem will admit that however but all know it to be so.

[Kathianne]

I'm just saying that the overall effect of the economy does seem to be far reaching. Not necessarily to the "upper incomers". Just to folks who were extended too much credit. It seems that no matter what the income level, people want to live a one level higher than they can afford. Its an epidemic.

One thing that the repo business has taught me is that bad things happen to good people. Take away the economy equation and there is still no shortage of scenarios involving the guy who loses his job and has to let go of the college kids car, or the family boat, etc,.... These things happen in a good economy. A world where we work for the same company for 30 years, retire, get our gold watch and move to Ft. Myers, Fla. was absent even before the new century seemed to bring to light this state we are in now.. Companies can form, rise and fall in a cycle of a fvew years. Companies don't move their employees and executives anymore. They down size and hire in the areas where they experience a pickup of business. We seem to have set the stage for a disaster over a long economical degeneration period.

Much can be learned from a ride in the country nowadays. Notice the skeletonized textile mills, and other closed businesses. The ball fields with ivy on the backstop and old mom and pop businesses that are now dead and the buildings are collapsing. Our economy seems to be crumbling with them. More and more people have to move to the cities in an effort to find employment or pursue their aspirations. It seems to me that many years ago we should have been able to see the warning signs that were apparent, in this evolution of sorts.

I like to attempt to peer inside the cause of this a little closer. Let us think for a moment about another detail that has greatly influenced this new era economy and its problems. As people began to migrate into the big cities, it created a much different looking voting block. Redistricting to accomodate the influx of population on the outskirts of major cities brought about interesting political developments. For instance, where did most of the construction of new homes take place? This left fewer political figures in connection with those who would influence how business was done, in the way of codes, contracts and so forth.Outer suburban areas right? For many years, we seemed to not be able to build houses fast enough to accomodate the growth of the population. This created an over abundance of companies that produced products for the housing industry. Take a look at some of these companies, look how many have gone under as a result of the stagnation of new home sales.

As Democrats were busy trying to set a stage friendly to the mortgage companies, being paid off and dined, we were crumbling. They claim to have fought for regulation, so as not to allow a circumstance like the present to take place. Fact is, it would have been worse! Setting rules for lenders to have to write a certain amount of risky loans to keep up with production of the new homes was a prescription for absolute failure. It brought us to where we are now in a sense although we were busy doing plenty of the damage without those factors.

What if housing and real estate would not have been the fast train that it was. The economy would certainly not have been as good per say in the 90s. Bill Clinton would not have been able to make his one claim to fame. I mean hell... we all admit that the only thing good about Bill was that the economy seemed to do pretty well under Clinton. Well.... maybe it was not as good as it seemed. The presciption for disaster was written on his watch. Not one Dem will admit that however but all know it to be so.

I may be reading things wrong here, but see points to agree with and some that I disagree with, to a degree, anyways.

Over the past year or so, I've seen lots of folks arguing that it's 'poor people' getting mortgages that caused the banking bubble, ignoring the loans to build McMansions throughout the country's suburbs. Lots of those loans were along the lines of $600-$1.5 million, to people that had no business borrowing more than $200k, people that certainly should have been savvy enough and smart enough to have shown self-discipline. I've also seen lots of arguing that it was the nasty banks that entangled people into loans they were too stupid to understand, implying that 'the poor' were hoodwinked, thus justifying the bailouts. No doubt some were, but my guess is the costs of these are a trifle compared to the others.

Now about manufacturing. Is it dead in the US? I don't think so, it's changed and certainly as more and more people here are educated, there are fewer jobs in that sector, which like agriculture, needed to change. However, it seems to me that we will see a renewed commitment to changing even more in this direction:

http://www.alaskajournal.com/stories/022009/mon_img_6001.shtml

[manu1959]

I may be reading things wrong here, but see points to agree with and some that I disagree with, to a degree, anyways.

Over the past year or so, I've seen lots of folks arguing that it's 'poor people' getting mortgages that caused the banking bubble, ignoring the loans to build McMansions throughout the country's suburbs. Lots of those loans were along the lines of $600-$1.5 million, to people that had no business borrowing more than $200k, people that certainly should have been savvy enough and smart enough to have shown self-discipline. I've also seen lots of arguing that it was the nasty banks that entangled people into loans they were too stupid to understand, implying that 'the poor' were hoodwinked, thus justifying the bailouts. No doubt some were, but my guess is the costs of these are a trifle compared to the others.

Now about manufacturing. Is it dead in the US? I don't think so, it's changed and certainly as more and more people here are educated, there are fewer jobs in that sector, which like agriculture, needed to change. However, it seems to me that we will see a renewed commitment to changing even more in this direction:

http://www.alaskajournal.com/stories/022009/mon_img_6001.shtml

bad loans .... i know several folks that over reached in this market and have lost their homes .... multi-million dollar homes ....

[Kathianne]

bad loans .... i know several folks that over reached in this market and have lost their homes .... multi-million dollar homes ....

Yep, those upper end homes are the ones really taking the big hits in value, too many of them built. Those are major toxic dollars. On the other hand, making a loan of $120k, to someone making $25-30k may indeed be risky, especially with $0 down, but can possibly be recouped better whether in extending mortgage or foreclosure.

Like I've said, I'm certainly not an econ guru, not even a good amateur, however I know at least in my area which were hot properties, and it wasn't the 2 BD, 1 BA homes. I know which have more on the market today, not selling...

[Mr. P]

I'm just saying that the overall effect of the economy does seem to be far reaching. Not necessarily to the "upper incomers". Just to folks who were extended too much credit. It seems that no matter what the income level, people want to live a one level higher than they can afford. Its an epidemic.

One thing that the repo business has taught me is that bad things happen to good people. Take away the economy equation and there is still no shortage of scenarios involving the guy who loses his job and has to let go of the college kids car, or the family boat, etc,.... These things happen in a good economy. A world where we work for the same company for 30 years, retire, get our gold watch and move to Ft. Myers, Fla. was absent even before the new century seemed to bring to light this state we are in now.. Companies can form, rise and fall in a cycle of a fvew years. Companies don't move their employees and executives anymore. They down size and hire in the areas where they experience a pickup of business. We seem to have set the stage for a disaster over a long economical degeneration period.

Much can be learned from a ride in the country nowadays. Notice the skeletonized textile mills, and other closed businesses. The ball fields with ivy on the backstop and old mom and pop businesses that are now dead and the buildings are collapsing. Our economy seems to be crumbling with them. More and more people have to move to the cities in an effort to find employment or pursue their aspirations. It seems to me that many years ago we should have been able to see the warning signs that were apparent, in this evolution of sorts.

I like to attempt to peer inside the cause of this a little closer. Let us think for a moment about another detail that has greatly influenced this new era economy and its problems. As people began to migrate into the big cities, it created a much different looking voting block. Redistricting to accomodate the influx of population on the outskirts of major cities brought about interesting political developments. For instance, where did most of the construction of new homes take place? This left fewer political figures in connection with those who would influence how business was done, in the way of codes, contracts and so forth.Outer suburban areas right? For many years, we seemed to not be able to build houses fast enough to accomodate the growth of the population. This created an over abundance of companies that produced products for the housing industry. Take a look at some of these companies, look how many have gone under as a result of the stagnation of new home sales.

As Democrats were busy trying to set a stage friendly to the mortgage companies, being paid off and dined, we were crumbling. They claim to have fought for regulation, so as not to allow a circumstance like the present to take place. Fact is, it would have been worse! Setting rules for lenders to have to write a certain amount of risky loans to keep up with production of the new homes was a prescription for absolute failure. It brought us to where we are now in a sense although we were busy doing plenty of the damage without those factors.

What if housing and real estate would not have been the fast train that it was. The economy would certainly not have been as good per say in the 90s. Bill Clinton would not have been able to make his one claim to fame. I mean hell... we all admit that the only thing good about Bill was that the economy seemed to do pretty well under Clinton. Well.... maybe it was not as good as it seemed. The presciption for disaster was written on his watch. Not one Dem will admit that however but all know it to be so.

Spot on there, emmett! :thumb:

From another on the "WE SEE THE WHAT'S HAPPENING" list. Being in the bankruptcy area, emmett and I work the same environment if you will, even though on opposite sides so to speak.

We see what most never see, folks with high income $100k or more living pay check to pay check way above any responsible financial planning or foresight.

I just shake my head and wonder how they ever could make so much and be so irresponsible. I'm sure emmett pulls up to these $500k homes to repo a $30k item and shakes his head too.

For 98% of the folks I deal with it's all about piss poor planning an a lack of personal and financial responsibility. The other 2% just fail do to uncontrollable events in their life.

[Psychoblues]

Do you have anything substantial to generate an agreement with that bullshit, emmie?!?!?!?!?!?!??!?!?!?



I'm just saying that the overall effect of the economy does seem to be far reaching. Not necessarily to the "upper incomers". Just to folks who were extended too much credit. It seems that no matter what the income level, people want to live a one level higher than they can afford. Its an epidemic.

One thing that the repo business has taught me is that bad things happen to good people. Take away the economy equation and there is still no shortage of scenarios involving the guy who loses his job and has to let go of the college kids car, or the family boat, etc,.... These things happen in a good economy. A world where we work for the same company for 30 years, retire, get our gold watch and move to Ft. Myers, Fla. was absent even before the new century seemed to bring to light this state we are in now.. Companies can form, rise and fall in a cycle of a fvew years. Companies don't move their employees and executives anymore. They down size and hire in the areas where they experience a pickup of business. We seem to have set the stage for a disaster over a long economical degeneration period.

Much can be learned from a ride in the country nowadays. Notice the skeletonized textile mills, and other closed businesses. The ball fields with ivy on the backstop and old mom and pop businesses that are now dead and the buildings are collapsing. Our economy seems to be crumbling with them. More and more people have to move to the cities in an effort to find employment or pursue their aspirations. It seems to me that many years ago we should have been able to see the warning signs that were apparent, in this evolution of sorts.

I like to attempt to peer inside the cause of this a little closer. Let us think for a moment about another detail that has greatly influenced this new era economy and its problems. As people began to migrate into the big cities, it created a much different looking voting block. Redistricting to accomodate the influx of population on the outskirts of major cities brought about interesting political developments. For instance, where did most of the construction of new homes take place? This left fewer political figures in connection with those who would influence how business was done, in the way of codes, contracts and so forth.Outer suburban areas right? For many years, we seemed to not be able to build houses fast enough to accomodate the growth of the population. This created an over abundance of companies that produced products for the housing industry. Take a look at some of these companies, look how many have gone under as a result of the stagnation of new home sales.

As Democrats were busy trying to set a stage friendly to the mortgage companies, being paid off and dined, we were crumbling. They claim to have fought for regulation, so as not to allow a circumstance like the present to take place. Fact is, it would have been worse! Setting rules for lenders to have to write a certain amount of risky loans to keep up with production of the new homes was a prescription for absolute failure. It brought us to where we are now in a sense although we were busy doing plenty of the damage without those factors.

What if housing and real estate would not have been the fast train that it was. The economy would certainly not have been as good per say in the 90s. Bill Clinton would not have been able to make his one claim to fame. I mean hell... we all admit that the only thing good about Bill was that the economy seemed to do pretty well under Clinton. Well.... maybe it was not as good as it seemed. The presciption for disaster was written on his watch. Not one Dem will admit that however but all know it to be so.

Or, are you just shooting from the hip and hope that you're hitting what might then claim was your target!??!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!??!?!?!

Howz 'bout a Peach Julep?!?!?!?!?!??!?!??!?!?!?!?!?

:beer::cheers2::beer:

Psychoblues