Maybe Newt Has A Chance

[Kathianne]

He'll get me if he says more stuff like this:

http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=YmM2YzNhY2JkZjI2YzIxYjY5YTU0ZjBkYjNjMzg1M2M=




The Impotence of Great Powers [Mark Steyn]

Further to my Gromyko reminiscence below, I’ve been getting a lot of sneery e-mails like this:

So, the wise course would have been to bomb Teheran in 1979? What is the wise course today? Turning Teheran into a crater?

You’re missing the point. Because Gromyko credibly threatened to turn Teheran into a crater, he didn’t have to. That’s how deterrence works. What today can Britain and America credibly threaten? Hugh Hewitt interviewed Newt Gingrich yesterday, and Newt proposed the following:


I think there are two very simple steps that should be taken. The first is to use a covert operation or a special forces operation to knock out the only gasoline producing refinery in Iran. There’s only one. And the second is to simply intercede by naval force, and block any tankers from bringing gasoline to Iran… I would right now say to them privately, within the next week, your refinery will no longer work. And within the following week, there will be no tankers arriving. Now if you would like to avoid being humiliated publicly, we recommend you calmly and quietly give them back now. But frankly, if you’d prefer to show the planet that you’re tiny and we’re not, we’re prepared to simply cut off your economy, and allow you to go back to walking and using oxen to pull carts, because you will have no gasoline left.

That’s not a Gromyko you’re-all-gonna-die threat but one that an assertive West could make credibly. But even to hear Newt propose it reminds you of how unlikely it is anyone in Teheran is getting that kind of talk from the British Foreign Office or the Americans. A great power is as great as its credibility. Right now, it’s Britain that’s cratering.

03/29 11:54 AM

[5stringJeff]

That's not a bad deal. They would also have to turn off any gasoline pipelines coming from Iraq. However, I would encourage the Brits to knock out that oil refinery in broad daylight, not covertly like Newt proposes.

[gabosaurus]

Don't be ridiculous. Newt has about as much chance of gaining the GOP nomination as Tom DeLay.
A party that embraces Family Values is not going to support someone like Newt.

[5stringJeff]

Don't be ridiculous. Newt has about as much chance of gaining the GOP nomination as Tom DeLay.
A party that embraces Family Values is not going to support someone like Newt.

The Pat Robertson/James Dobson wing of GOP Evangelicals does not control the party. That's not to excuse Newt's extramarital flings, but to say that there's more to Presidential candidates than who they've slept with.

[Gaffer]

Don't be ridiculous. Newt has about as much chance of gaining the GOP nomination as Tom DeLay.
A party that embraces Family Values is not going to support someone like Newt.

You would really hate to see his plan put into action right raghead?

[Abbey Marie]

Don't be ridiculous. Newt has about as much chance of gaining the GOP nomination as Tom DeLay.
A party that embraces Family Values is not going to support someone like Newt.

Sounds like the exact wishful thinking you tried to sell us about Romney. And once again, it is probably wrong.

[manu1959]

Don't be ridiculous. Newt has about as much chance of gaining the GOP nomination as Tom DeLay.
A party that embraces Family Values is not going to support someone like Newt.

your logic does not explain why rudy is leading in the poles

[avatar4321]

I think Newt's plan here has serious merit. I think it would be wise to pursue regardless of whether he has a chance as the nominee.

[Kathianne]

While not Newt, this too has good connotations:

http://www.opinionjournal.com/best/?id=110009878


How to Hit Back
It's a bit reminiscent of the Jimmy Carter crisis of 1979-81: Iran last week captured 15 British sailors in Iraqi waters and has been holding them hostage, coercing some into reading videotaped "apologies." In the Washington Times James Lyons, a retired admiral, suggests a show of strength that Carter rejected back then:


In November 1979, when our embassy was sacked and our diplomats were taken hostage, I recommended to the then-acting chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Adm. Tom Hayward, that our only good option really was to capture Kharg Island, Iran's principal oil export depot. If we did this, we could negotiate from a position of strength for the immediate return of our embassy and our diplomats.

Unfortunately, the Carter administration rejected any offensive operations as a means of responding to this blatant act of war against the United States. We were humiliated and seemed to the world to lack the courage to defend our honor. . . .

While our State Department and the British Foreign and Commonwealth Office work to obtain U.N. and allied condemnation of Iran's illegal act, the Joint Chiefs of Staff need to develop or refine a series of military options that can be immediately carried out when directed by the commander in chief, President Bush after coordination with Prime Minister Tony Blair.

One such option should be the capture of Kharg Island. That could be viewed as part of a larger economic sanction that the U.N. Security Council has already endorsed. It is not an attack against the Iranian people. In fact, it could further encourage the popular antigovernment movement against the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's corrupt and already shaky regime. The economic cost to Iran would be catastrophic at minimum.

A reader, however, offers this crazy thought:


Capturing Iran's principal oil export depot would play right into the delusions of people who imagine we are out to grab the region's oil. Instead we should act on our concern, the centrifuges at Natanz. A few good hits on top of the centrifuge bunker would at the minimum send a message, and might rattle the notoriously sensitive centrifuges enough to make them unsafe to operate.

In the past, disturbances as small as fingerprints have caused the machines to spin improperly and explode. Now, with more centrifuges operating, one could get a chain reaction, and not the type the ayatollahs had in mind.

In an April 2006 Iranian TV interview (PDF, quote on pp. 4-5), Islamic Republic nuke official Gholamreza Aqazadeh elaborates on the centrifuges' vulnerability:


In the preliminary stages of the work, we noticed that our machines broke down frequently. We couldn't discover the cause, since we didn't have any scientific sources or books to refer to. After great efforts we discovered that our experts didn't wear fabric gloves during the assembly phase. We found out that when you assemble the parts with bare hands, germs are transferred to the machinery from the smallest amount of sweat which comes off the hands.

This little amount of germs is enough to trouble and destroy the machine. When we say a machine is destroyed we mean that it turns into powder.

Either way, as Lyons observes, "such a move would end almost 30 years of our Iranian appeasement policy, demonstrating to Tehran we finally mean business."

[Gaffer]

Yes bombing the site where the centifuges are would do great, but depends on if there is only one such site or dozens.

Taking their island sounds much more plausable and can cripple them very seriously. Knocking out their one refinery would also do wonders to cripple their economy.

[Kathianne]

Yes bombing the site where the centifuges are would do great, but depends on if there is only one such site or dozens.

Taking their island sounds much more plausable and can cripple them very seriously. Knocking out their one refinery would also do wonders to cripple their economy.

I think it's safe to say, more than one, less than 20.

[Gaffer]

iran only has one gasoline refinery. They import all their gas. Newt mentioned that. we blockade ships to iran carrying gas and take out their refinery and they are screwed.

[Kathianne]

iran only has one gasoline refinery. They import all their gas. Newt mentioned that. we blockade ships to iran carrying gas and take out their refinery and they are screwed.

I concur. Past time!