The GOP is dying

[loosecannon]

Which is why there WILL be a strong third party candidate in 08.

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-shift23mar23,0,195804.story?coll=la-home-headlines



Fewer pledge allegiance to the GOP
A poll says 35% of those surveyed identify with Republicans. Public attitudes seem to be drifting toward Democrats' values.


WASHINGTON — Public allegiance to the Republican Party has plunged during George W. Bush's presidency, as attitudes have edged away from some of the conservative values that fueled GOP political victories, a major survey has found.

The survey, by the nonpartisan Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, found a "dramatic shift" in political party identification since 2002, when Republicans and Democrats were at rough parity. Now, 50% of those surveyed identified with or leaned toward Democrats, whereas 35% aligned with Republicans.

What's more, the survey found, public attitudes are drifting toward Democrats' values: Support for government aid to the disadvantaged has grown since the mid-1990s, skepticism about the use of military force has increased and support for traditional family values has decreased.

The findings suggest that the challenges for the GOP reach beyond the unpopularity of the war in Iraq and Bush.

"Iraq has played a large part; the pushback on the Republican Party has to do with Bush, but there are other things going on here that Republicans will have to contend with," said Andrew Kohut, director of the Pew Center. "There is a difference in the landscape."

[Abbey Marie]

Even if this 'swing' is true (and polls are often wrong), once the '08 campaign gets really going, and people are reminded of the Dems love for national health care and higher taxes, and their weakness on the WOT, they will likely swing right on back.

[loosecannon]

Even if this 'swing' is true (and polls are often wrong), once the '08 campaign gets really going, and people are reminded of the Dems love for national health care and higher taxes, and their weakness on the WOT, they will likely swing right on back.

not likely, but you keep the faith!!

[Abbey Marie]

not likely, but you keep the faith!!

Lol. I'm good at that!

It will be interesting, either way.

[loosecannon]

The complete Pew survey results can be found here

http://people-press.org/reports/display.php3?ReportID=312

read em and weep

[OCA]

So who should run? Lou "middle class" Dobbs?:laugh2:

[loosecannon]

So who should run? Lou "middle class" Dobbs?:laugh2:

Lieberman probably will run as an inde.

If Hillary doesn't win the Dem nod she may run as an inde.

Then a traditional third party candy like Ron Paul may run.

Hagel has already announced that he may run as an inde, but he is postponing any campaign until this time next year, which is already too late to win in the primaries but in plenty of time to run as an inde.

[Dilloduck]

Anything that will put some pressure on the boring two parties that have given us the Clinton Bush dynasties will be refreshing. Been predicting that Hillary would sell herself as a "Progressive" for some time now. Being merely a democratic is "beneath" her.

[Hugh Lincoln]

The survey, by the nonpartisan Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, found a "dramatic shift" in political party identification since 2002, when Republicans and Democrats were at rough parity. Now, 50% of those surveyed identified with or leaned toward Democrats, whereas 35% aligned with Republicans.

This means that 15% who might once have been GOP aren't --- but they haven't gone D. What that tells me is that folks are disappointed with the GOP, not conservatism or traditional values. And given the direction of the GOP, that would make perfect sense.

[5stringJeff]

The survey, by the nonpartisan Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, found a "dramatic shift" in political party identification since 2002, when Republicans and Democrats were at rough parity. Now, 50% of those surveyed identified with or leaned toward Democrats, whereas 35% aligned with Republicans.

This means that 15% who might once have been GOP aren't --- but they haven't gone D. What that tells me is that folks are disappointed with the GOP, not conservatism or traditional values. And given the direction of the GOP, that would make perfect sense.

Word. You can count me in part of that 15%. I will only vote for a GOP candidate that is actually conservative. If none can be found, then I'll vote third party (like Constitution), but sure as hell not for a Democrat.

[loosecannon]

Word. You can count me in part of that 15%. I will only vote for a GOP candidate that is actually conservative. If none can be found, then I'll vote third party (like Constitution), but sure as hell not for a Democrat.

That works for me, and I applaud the sentiment altho I don't entirely agree.

I want to see the two party system destroyed and a more democratic elections process.

The Feb 5th Super Primary is a great first step.

And altho I have a lot in common with real traditional conservatives I sorta doubt they will field a strong candidate.

I expect that the neocons like Lieberman, Hillary and Bush stand the best chances of winning in 08'.

I expect at least two neocon candies in 08'.

[manu1959]

I expect that the neocons like Lieberman, Hillary and Bush stand the best chances of winning in 08'.



jeb bush i assume....when did leib and the pill become neocons? ...does darth cheeny know?

[5stringJeff]

I expect that the neocons like Lieberman, Hillary and Bush stand the best chances of winning in 08'.

I expect at least two neocon candies in 08'.

Given your affinity for Marx and Keynes, I doubt your definitions of 'conservative' and 'neocons' are anywhere near mine.

And neither George nor Jeb Bush is running in 2008.

[loosecannon]

jeb bush i assume....when did leib and the pill become neocons? ...does darth cheeny know?

Hillary and Lieberman are both solid neocons by definition. They support Israel without exception, began their political evolution on the far far left and migrated into a center right position characterized by being socially liberal, militaristically aggressive, and opposed to the counter culture.

Each person meets the definition or doesn't in their own way, but Hillary and Lieberman match it at least as well as Dick Cheney.

It doesn't matter if any of the three run, I said neocons like Hillary, Lieberman and Bush.

Guilianni might be a neocon as well, I would need to know more about him.

[avatar4321]

Lieberman probably will run as an inde.

If Hillary doesn't win the Dem nod she may run as an inde.

Then a traditional third party candy like Ron Paul may run.

Hagel has already announced that he may run as an inde, but he is postponing any campaign until this time next year, which is already too late to win in the primaries but in plenty of time to run as an inde.

I can't help but notice that other than Ron Paul, who isn't going to get much support regardless of an independent or Republican run. The candidates you say are likely to run independent are liberal leaning.

That won't fracture the GOP conservative vote. Quite the opposite. It will fracture the Democrat vote.

[loosecannon]

I can't help but notice that other than Ron Paul, who isn't going to get much support regardless of an independent or Republican run. The candidates you say are likely to run independent are liberal leaning.

did I forget to mention Hagel who has already announced that he may run as an inde?


That won't fracture the GOP conservative vote. Quite the opposite. It will fracture the Democrat vote.

I don't care about that

[loosecannon]

bump

[avatar4321]

did I forget to mention Hagel who has already announced that he may run as an inde?



I don't care about that

Like I said, Liberals.

[loosecannon]

Like I said, Liberals.


Well if you go calling every republican senator from Nebraska a liberal you are gonna find yourself in a minority with 12 members within the year.

But please carry on pilgrim, we like it!!

[gabosaurus]

Bush is the 21st Century equivalent of a can of Raid.
IRAQ! Kills Republicans dead!

[loosecannon]

Bush is the 21st Century equivalent of a can of Raid.
IRAQ! Kills Republicans dead!

Bush is killing the GOP dead.

[avatar4321]

Well if you go calling every republican senator from Nebraska a liberal you are gonna find yourself in a minority with 12 members within the year.

But please carry on pilgrim, we like it!!

Are you trying to pretend Chuck Hagel isn't a liberal Republican?

[loosecannon]

Are you trying to pretend Chuck Hagel isn't a liberal Republican?

No, he is definitely a republican. And many people have told me he is EXTREMELY conservative.

But what i know about Hagel is just his online bios and quoted reports. Not much really. But I like him.

But I will say that Hagel is conservative compared to all but the most right wing.

And you simply cannot go wrong with a Nebraska candidate. Period. People from Nebraska are, for whatever reason, far too honest and practical to be disappointed by.

Nebraska is a very unique island of virtue and purity within the USA.

[Nuc]

There is a pathetic dearth of inspiring candidates in either of the major parties not to mention potential third parties. The populace seems to have much more loyalty to media figures. So why not just cut to the chase and pit Oprah vs. Rush Limbaugh? I'd bet voter turnout would be much higher.

[TheStripey1]

So who should run? Lou "middle class" Dobbs?:laugh2:


sure why not? He has more credibility in fighting for the middle class than any of the conservatives...

[TheStripey1]

Lieberman probably will run as an inde.

If Hillary doesn't win the Dem nod she may run as an inde.

Then a traditional third party candy like Ron Paul may run.

Hagel has already announced that he may run as an inde, but he is postponing any campaign until this time next year, which is already too late to win in the primaries but in plenty of time to run as an inde.

I would never vote for lieberman... or hillary... or hagel even though he is a vet and against the war...

I might consider Ron Paul though...

[TheStripey1]

Word. You can count me in part of that 15%. I will only vote for a GOP candidate that is actually conservative. If none can be found, then I'll vote third party (like Constitution), but sure as hell not for a Democrat.

Unless it's a viable third party candidate, you'd be wasting your vote... but it is your purrrogative to do so should you feel that that's what you want to do...

[TheStripey1]

That works for me, and I applaud the sentiment altho I don't entirely agree.

I want to see the two party system destroyed and a more democratic elections process.

The Feb 5th Super Primary is a great first step.

And altho I have a lot in common with real traditional conservatives I sorta doubt they will field a strong candidate.

I expect that the neocons like Lieberman, Hillary and Bush stand the best chances of winning in 08'.

I expect at least two neocon candies in 08'.

uhhhhhhhhh, bush? which bush?

[TheStripey1]

Like I said, Liberals.


Hagel voted with bush nearly all the time, the only thing they differ on is the iraq war and how it is being run... are you saying that bush is liberal?

[TheStripey1]

There is a pathetic dearth of inspiring candidates in either of the major parties not to mention potential third parties. The populace seems to have much more loyalty to media figures. So why not just cut to the chase and pit Oprah vs. Rush Limbaugh? I'd bet voter turnout would be much higher.


ack!!! no thanks...

[5stringJeff]

Unless it's a viable third party candidate, you'd be wasting your vote... but it is your purrrogative to do so should you feel that that's what you want to do...

I don't buy that theory. I'd rather vote for a non-viable Constitution Party candidate, who accurately reflects my views, than a viable John McCain who doesn't. Besides, look what happened to the "viable" John Kerry in 2004.

[Yurt]

Listening to Michael Savage and he had a guest on that was in the "know" (whatever that it is) and he said that the Al Gabor(asorus) camp was seriously considering a third party run. Apparently Ralph Nader's camp has contacted the Bore camp and apparently the Boringsarus camp is strongly considering it, as the Borehead knows he can't beat Swillery head on.

The actually gave a good argument for it, and I honestly believe that Al the mansion hugging environmentalist (I just realized that that word has "mental" in it...) believes that he could score big off the TP vote. Nah, he won't care that Nader cost him once, bridge under trouble water, IMHO. He wants power, as the guest said, he fashions himself the prophet of a new world, a new environmental world.

Would buy a huge bag of peanuts if he does run TP, cause it would be a great show!

[Gaffer]

Listening to Michael Savage and he had a guest on that was in the "know" (whatever that it is) and he said that the Al Gabor(asorus) camp was seriously considering a third party run. Apparently Ralph Nader's camp has contacted the Bore camp and apparently the Boringsarus camp is strongly considering it, as the Borehead knows he can't beat Swillery head on.

The actually gave a good argument for it, and I honestly believe that Al the mansion hugging environmentalist (I just realized that that word has "mental" in it...) believes that he could score big off the TP vote. Nah, he won't care that Nader cost him once, bridge under trouble water, IMHO. He wants power, as the guest said, he fashions himself the prophet of a new world, a new environmental world.

Would buy a huge bag of peanuts if he does run TP, cause it would be a great show!

I would love to see that too. And it will draw all the moonbats away from hellery. It would give us a good count of how many moonbats actually live here.

[avatar4321]

Listening to Michael Savage and he had a guest on that was in the "know" (whatever that it is) and he said that the Al Gabor(asorus) camp was seriously considering a third party run. Apparently Ralph Nader's camp has contacted the Bore camp and apparently the Boringsarus camp is strongly considering it, as the Borehead knows he can't beat Swillery head on.

The actually gave a good argument for it, and I honestly believe that Al the mansion hugging environmentalist (I just realized that that word has "mental" in it...) believes that he could score big off the TP vote. Nah, he won't care that Nader cost him once, bridge under trouble water, IMHO. He wants power, as the guest said, he fashions himself the prophet of a new world, a new environmental world.

Would buy a huge bag of peanuts if he does run TP, cause it would be a great show!

Al Gore running independent... that would be interesting... you know I think we could have several independents running from both sides of the Isle. This election will be like no other.

[Yurt]

Al Gore running independent... that would be interesting... you know I think we could have several independents running from both sides of the Isle. This election will be like no other.

I believe that to be a good thing. IMHO

[avatar4321]

I believe that to be a good thing. IMHO

I do and yet I dont. Because it means there will be no strong leadership competing. And it also means that whoever does win will win with a very small majority of the votes. Possibly even less than Clintons 43% victory.

It means tensions will be very much tightened. Alot of people will be unhappy and with the way things have been getting more violent lately, we are in a powder keg ready to blow.

[loosecannon]

The GOP is still dying and if there isn't a third party candidate with some juice the GOP is dead meat in 08.

Hagel. Take my advice: Hagel is the ONLY valid, electable, positionworthy GOPer.

I do NOT want to see Hillary elected as pres. But she would be a huge improvement over Guili, McCain, Romney or Newt.

The GOP doesn't have one real candy in the race yet.

[Birdzeye]

IIRC, pundits were writing requiems for the GOP after Goldwater lost in a landslide in '64. It was either Time or Newsweek that had on its cover a cartoon of a hung-over elephant clutching a bottle of "AuH2O."

[avatar4321]

The GOP is still dying and if there isn't a third party candidate with some juice the GOP is dead meat in 08.

Hagel. Take my advice: Hagel is the ONLY valid, electable, positionworthy GOPer.

I do NOT want to see Hillary elected as pres. But she would be a huge improvement over Guili, McCain, Romney or Newt.

The GOP doesn't have one real candy in the race yet.

The problem isnt that the GOP doesnt have any one real candidate. The problem is they have too many qualifies candidates, which is why none of them are standing out. They would all be good candidates. Of course this is assuming Hagel stays out... then you might have an argument.

[loosecannon]

The problem is they have too many qualifies candidates, which is why none of them are standing out. They would all be good candidates.

You must be eating massive quantities of qualudes.

Not one single GOP candidate yet swarming around running is worth the warm vapor of fresh shit.

Except Hagel. And Ron Paul who is completely unelectable.

The GOP is an unloaded gun in 08.

[loosecannon]

IIRC, pundits were writing requiems for the GOP after Goldwater lost in a landslide in '64. It was either Time or Newsweek that had on its cover a cartoon of a hung-over elephant clutching a bottle of "AuH2O."

True enough Birdz, but Vietnam killed the democratic advantage.

Notice that the opposite is true today?

[CockySOB]

Lieberman probably will run as an inde.

If Hillary doesn't win the Dem nod she may run as an inde.

Then a traditional third party candy like Ron Paul may run.

Hagel has already announced that he may run as an inde, but he is postponing any campaign until this time next year, which is already too late to win in the primaries but in plenty of time to run as an inde.

Lieberman will probably run as an independent, as you say. He *might* be a VP on another ticket, but right now I'd guess this is only an option for one of the moderate Republicans. I think there's too much bad blood now between Lieberman and the Democrats for him to be part of a Democrat ticket.

Hillary will probably get the official nod from the Democrats for one major reason - fund-raising power of the Clinton political machine. Whatever else you might want to say about WJC, he is certainly charismatic, and he knows how to work a crowd. I expect Hillary's war chest to easily be double the next Democrat possible who I would say will be Obama.

Obama has plenty of charisma, and he has the benefit of being male (shouldn't make a difference, but I expect it does and will continue to do so for the next decade or so). On the other hand, Hillary has a track record and experience, while Obama has neither.

None of the Republicans who have announced so far have really impressed me. I want a fiscal conservative and a social conservative, and no one really fits the bill. That being said, the time feels ripe for a fiscal conservative, social moderate to get the Republican ticket. It'll be interesting to see how things filter out.

[Abbey Marie]

Earlier today I caught a a few seconds of a graphic on MSNBC which showed that more voters would vote for the Republican front-runners than any Dem. Sorry, it didn't say which poll or I'd cite it.

Not exactly what I would call dying.

:dance:

[Hugh Lincoln]

On-topic but in another direction, the unviability of the third party in America is a pretty well-studied one by political scientists. I think it's largely procedural, because our elections are winner-take-all. In Europe, they have proportional parliaments, so even we nutty white nationalists get two or three seats --- same with communists, etc.

Of course, we'd need legislatures to MAKE such a change, and since they got in the old way, good luck! We're stuck with Tweedle Dee and Tweedle Dum. We're basically stuck trying to influence one party or the other.