Polls: the two out of three problem

[mundame]

So today 9/23 Obama is ahead 2.5 points in the RealClearPolitics average of polls.


BUT ------- for forever a candidate MUST get two of three of these states to win: Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida. And McCain is polling ahead in Ohio and Florida, Obama in Pennsylvania.

So the polls are at odds.

I can't make sense of this, and it's been stable for some weeks.


Uh-oh, maybe it's another electoral vote/popular vote problem? Obama ahead in the popular vote but McCain ahead in the state count that Ohio and Florida represent?

[mundame]

Somewhat unexpected big jump in one poll today --------


Economic Fears Give Obama Clear Lead Over McCain in Poll (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/09/23/AR2008092303667.html?hpid=topnews&sid=ST2008092303897&s_pos=)

By Dan Balz and Jon CohenWashington Post Staff Writers
Wednesday, September 24, 2008; Page A01

Turmoil in the financial industry and growing pessimism about the economy have altered the shape of the presidential race, giving Democratic nominee Barack Obama the first clear lead of the general-election campaign over Republican John McCain, according to the latest Washington Post-ABC News poll.

Obama now leads McCain by 52 percent to 43 percent. Two weeks ago, in the days immediately following the Republican National Convention, the race was essentially even, with McCain at 49 percent and Obama at 47 percent.

As a point of comparison, neither of the last two Democratic nominees -- John F. Kerry in 2004 or Al Gore in 2000 -- recorded support above 50 percent in a pre-election poll by the Post and ABC News.
*******************************************

Because of that last bolded bit, this is actually pretty bad news for McCain, potentially. Polls do sort of have to get more than 50% for one candidate or another if he's to win ----------- unless there is a third party candidate soaking up a lot of the vote, which can happen, as we know (Perot and Nader). Given that there still are a couple third-party candidates dragging around in this election who might take away as much as 3%, Obama's going over 50% is interesting.

But so far it's only one poll.

Still, ahead is better than behind, you know?

[red states rule]

Somewhat unexpected big jump in one poll today --------


Economic Fears Give Obama Clear Lead Over McCain in Poll (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/09/23/AR2008092303667.html?hpid=topnews&sid=ST2008092303897&s_pos=)

By Dan Balz and Jon CohenWashington Post Staff Writers
Wednesday, September 24, 2008; Page A01

Turmoil in the financial industry and growing pessimism about the economy have altered the shape of the presidential race, giving Democratic nominee Barack Obama the first clear lead of the general-election campaign over Republican John McCain, according to the latest Washington Post-ABC News poll.

Obama now leads McCain by 52 percent to 43 percent. Two weeks ago, in the days immediately following the Republican National Convention, the race was essentially even, with McCain at 49 percent and Obama at 47 percent.

As a point of comparison, neither of the last two Democratic nominees -- John F. Kerry in 2004 or Al Gore in 2000 -- recorded support above 50 percent in a pre-election poll by the Post and ABC News.
*******************************************

Because of that last bolded bit, this is actually pretty bad news for McCain, potentially. Polls do sort of have to get more than 50% for one candidate or another if he's to win ----------- unless there is a third party candidate soaking up a lot of the vote, which can happen, as we know (Perot and Nader). Given that there still are a couple third-party candidates dragging around in this election who might take away as much as 3%, Obama's going over 50% is interesting.

But so far it's only one poll.

Still, ahead is better than behind, you know?

I have a thread on this Mundame

Things are not as they appear

http://www.debatepolicy.com/showthread.php?t=18067

[mundame]

Okay, I clicked on RealClearPolitics (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html), and they do have the new WaPo/ABC poll up (Obama +9). But they have polls since the 17th in the average, which is only Obama at +3.2 spread.

They have two newer tracking polls up as well as the WaPo/ABC. The Rasmussen Tracking, which ALWAYS slants heavily GOP ("Rasmussen the Rong" people call it) just like Zogby slants Dem, has Obama at only +2. However, the Hotline/FD Tracking has Obama at +6.

So maybe it is a breakout for Obama, as RSR called it. I'd like to see a couple more first, before I start saying that. It isn't even October yet.

Note that McCain STILL has two of the three vital BigThree states, Ohio and Florida. That just has to change before I'll believe in an Obama breakout.


We're all remembering about the Electoral College, aren't we, kiddoes?

The popular national vote just isn't what does it.

[red states rule]

Okay, I clicked on RealClearPolitics (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html), and they do have the new WaPo/ABC poll up (Obama +9). But they have polls since the 17th in the average, which is only Obama at +3.2 spread.

They have two newer tracking polls up as well as the WaPo/ABC. The Rasmussen Tracking, which ALWAYS slants heavily GOP ("Rasmussen the Rong" people call it) just like Zogby slants Dem, has Obama at only +2. However, the Hotline/FD Tracking has Obama at +6.

So maybe it is a breakout for Obama, as RSR called it. I'd like to see a couple more first, before I start saying that. It isn't even October yet.

Note that McCain STILL has two of the three vital BigThree states, Ohio and Florida. That just has to change before I'll believe in an Obama breakout.


We're all remembering about the Electoral College, aren't we, kiddoes?

The popular national vote just isn't what does it.

The WP poll is the only one that has Obama in the lead

Perhaps the other polls have a more equal sample of Republicans and Dems

[mundame]

The WP poll is the only one that has Obama in the lead



What???

Are you looking at the RCP average I linked to?

ALL of the polls in the average show Obama in the lead, except the "Battleground Tracking" poll. Including the two polls taken SINCE the ABC/WaPo poll.


Numbers are good, RSR, numbers are pure. There is something to be said for actual data, as opposed to wishful thinking.

[red states rule]

What???

Are you looking at the RCP average I linked to?

ALL of the polls in the average show Obama in the lead, except the "Battleground Tracking" poll. Including the two polls taken SINCE the ABC/WaPo poll.


Numbers are good, RSR, numbers are pure. There is something to be said for actual data, as opposed to wishful thinking.

The other polls are close to the margin of error. The WP poll is the only one that gives Obama a big lead

I could get a poll showing McCain up by 10 if I oversampled Republicans

[mundame]

The other polls are close to the margin of error. The WP poll is the only one that gives Obama a big lead

I could get a poll showing McCain up by 10 if I oversampled Republicans


Don't go this way, RSR. It's a heartbreaker, fighting the polls.

"Momentum!" "Unsampled subgroups!" I remember; I tried all that in 2004.

But some guy on a forum said the week before, "Whoops! It's all over, Bush is polling consistently 2% ahead, and ahead is ahead."

And he was right, of course. Ahead is ahead, and it's better than behind.

However, it's way too early at this point to draw any conclusions. We haven't even had the October Surprises yet ------ maybe ol' Bush will catch bin Laden!!


But probably not.

[red states rule]

Don't go this way, RSR. It's a heartbreaker, fighting the polls.

"Momentum!" "Unsampled subgroups!" I remember; I tried all that in 2004.

But some guy on a forum said the week before, "Whoops! It's all over, Bush is polling consistently 2% ahead, and ahead is ahead."

And he was right, of course. Ahead is ahead, and it's better than behind.

However, it's way too early at this point to draw any conclusions. We haven't even had the October Surprises yet ------ maybe ol' Bush will catch bin Laden!!


But probably not.


You remind me of the Kerry people on Election day when they went with the slanted exit polls

Later in the day the liberal media was "reporting" problems in Ohio

The next day libs were ranting about election fraud

It will come down to about 5 states

Maybe Obama will carry the the other 7 states he added to the US a couple months ago as a percaution :laugh2:

[mundame]

You remind me of the Kerry people on Election day when they went with the slanted exit polls

Later in the day the liberal media was "reporting" problems in Ohio

The next day libs were ranting about election fraud

It will come down to about 5 states

Maybe Obama will carry the the other 7 states he added to the US a couple months ago as a percaution :laugh2:


Another swamp to get caught in is "error variance!" See, if it's close to the error variance, then.........it's not supposed to count, right?

Except it always does. Ahead is ahead. Behind is behind.

It's been real close, but the election may yet open up. Remember Reagan? That election didn't open up till the final week, probably because no one would tell the truth to pollsters. I wouldn't tell who I was voting for (Reagan), people were being so hostile.

Wouldn't surprise me at all if something weird happened with this one, like in 2000.

[mundame]

Hmmmm, Fox has Obama up by 6 points this afternoon, so I guess the race has opened up.

One great whacking racial October surprise, or a war with Pakistan, could switch this around, however.

I'm not really interested until two of the Big Three states go Obama; currently Ohio and Florida are still polling for McCain.

[theHawk]

National polls are utterly worthless. I don't know why the media keeps touting them, other than to make everyone believe their chosen one will win. Its all about the electorial map and I'd much rather see polls from individual states. When you have large blue states like Cali and NY heavily in favor of Obama it slants the polls in his favor.

I still think obama has a good chance of winning, I am quite surprised Ohio is still polilng in favor of McCain. My dad told me when he drove through there he saw a million Obama signs and hardly any McCain ones.