Obama's bounce small and fading

[Yurt]

Barack Obama’s post-Democratic National Convention bounce in the polls appears to be slightly smaller than the norm of past conventions, and it's gradually depreciating.

...

CBS News reported Monday that Obama is now ahead in its poll, 48 to 40 percent, a 3-point uptick in Obama’s standing compared to its poll prior to the Democratic convention. Obama’s 3-point bounce exceeds that of John F. Kerry, the Democratic presidential nominee in 2004 who did not rise in the polls following his convention. But Obama’s bounce is less than a third of what Al Gore received in 2000 and Bill Clinton received in 1992. Even Bob Dole, following the 1996 Republican convention, received a 4-point bounce in the polls, 1 point more than Obama

http://news.yahoo.com/s/politico/13068

the more people learn about him the more they don't like him

[theHawk]

Yea what happened after the great "historic" speech that was supposed to rival Martin Luther King Jr.'s?


Oh thats right, Sarah Palin happened. :salute:

[Abbey Marie]

One small town woman from Alaska trumps a stadium full of worshippers. :cheers2:

[mundame]

CBS News reported Monday that Obama is now ahead in its poll, 48 to 40 percent, a 3-point uptick in Obama’s standing compared to its poll prior to the Democratic convention. Obama’s 3-point bounce exceeds that of John F. Kerry, the Democratic presidential nominee in 2004 who did not rise in the polls following his convention. But Obama’s bounce is less than a third of what Al Gore received in 2000 and Bill Clinton received in 1992. Even Bob Dole, following the 1996 Republican convention, received a 4-point bounce in the polls, 1 point more than Obama

http://news.yahoo.com/s/politico/13068

the more people learn about him the more they don't like him


I don't know how you can say "the more they don't like him" when he has an eight point lead!!! I'm sorry to rain on y'all's parade, but ahead is ahead.

And Obama's bounce DID exceed John Kerry's, so what is the problem?

I'm surprised Obama is doing this well, but I guess it's this stupid decision McCain made to take on Palin. I really think McCain could maybe have won this thing if he'd taken someone normal with experience, such as Tom Ridge. But now I'm expecting better and better odds for ol' Obalamabama, with all the McCain people saying hopefully that it's all about momentum and that surely he'll catch up by Election Day!

But I've learned ----------------- forget all this "it's a statistical tie" and "momentum is running his way" and all that ----------- ahead is ahead.

[retiredman]

clearly, the more people see of Obama the more they LIKE him...that is what a convention bounce indicates. If the more they saw him, the LESS they liked him, he would not go UP in the polls, but rather, he would go DOWN.

[Yurt]

what part of fading do mfm and mundame not understand?

[Yurt]

Barack Obama’s post-Democratic National Convention bounce in the polls appears to be slightly smaller than the norm of past conventions, and it's gradually depreciating.

...

CBS News reported Monday that Obama is now ahead in its poll, 48 to 40 percent, a 3-point uptick in Obama’s standing compared to its poll prior to the Democratic convention. Obama’s 3-point bounce exceeds that of John F. Kerry, the Democratic presidential nominee in 2004 who did not rise in the polls following his convention. But Obama’s bounce is less than a third of what Al Gore received in 2000 and Bill Clinton received in 1992. Even Bob Dole, following the 1996 Republican convention, received a 4-point bounce in the polls, 1 point more than Obama
http://news.yahoo.com/s/politico/13068

the more people learn about him the more they don't like him

:laugh2:

[retiredman]

clearly, the more people see of Obama the more they LIKE him...that is what a convention bounce indicates. If the more they saw him, the LESS they liked him, he would not go UP in the polls, but rather, he would go DOWN.


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

check out the graph on this page and realize what a LIE this thread is based upon!:lol:

[Sitarro]

clearly, the more people see of Obama the more they LIKE him...that is what a convention bounce indicates. If the more they saw him, the LESS they liked him, he would not go UP in the polls, but rather, he would go DOWN.

Idiots were impressed with Osama's 5 million dollar speech. He could have given it in the Pepsi Center and built 100 50,000 dollar homes in New Orleans, that wouldn't have had the same ego boost for the boy but I would be much more impressed with him.

[Yurt]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

check out the graph on this page and realize what a LIE this thread is based upon!:lol:

are you calling me a liar preacher? hold on while i get all maniacal and start screaming things like fuck you etc...you hypocritical moron

can't handle that your boy got a smaller bounce than dole and that little bounce is fading :laugh2:

[retiredman]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

check out the graph on this page and realize what a LIE this thread is based upon!:lol:

again...if people have the ability to read graphs, they understand that the premise of this thread is a lie.

but that is to be expected from the moronic author of this thread, which is why I have him on ignore.... I cannot ignore the tread titles, however, and this one begged for a response which the RCP graph aptly produces.

[Yurt]

again...if people have the ability to read graphs, they understand that the premise of this thread is a lie.

but that is to be expected from the moronic author of this thread, which is why I have him on ignore.... I cannot ignore the tread titles, however, and this one begged for a response which the RCP graph aptly produces.

liar...you're responding to my post/posts directly :poke: you are coward who hides behind your alleged ignore function because you know full well you can't debate, so you hide and throw insults behind your phony barrier, wimp

and what part of fading do you not understand? your post does NOT change the truth of the OP.

[retiredman]

yurt. I can debate...and I can recall when you and I used to have quite interesting debates..... that was before you turned into an RSR clone and made insulting me your M.O. I have read your posts in this thread. The OP is based upon a LIE... can you or can you not read the data points in the graph from the link I gave you from RCP? Can you see, or are you intentionally blind to the fact that Obama's lead has been INCREASING and not FADING as you have stated?

Here are the key data points:

8/25: Obama 45.5 McCain 43.9
8/26: Obama 45.7 McCain 44.0
8/27: Obama 46.5 McCain 44.7
8/28: Obama 47.2 McCain 44.3
8/29: Obama 47.7 McCain 43.8
8/30: Obama 47.7 McCain 43.8
8/31: Obama 47.6 McCain 44.2
9/01: Obama 48.8 McCain 44.3
9/02: Obama 49.2 McCain 42.8

I hate to break it to you... but going from a 1.6 point average lead in polls to a 6.4 point average lead in the polls over the course of nine days is not FADING.

LIAR, or math challenged moron.... you make the call.

[Yurt]

yurt. I can debate...and I can recall when you and I used to have quite interesting debates..... that was before you turned into an RSR clone and made insulting me your M.O. I have read your posts in this thread. The OP is based upon a LIE... can you or can you not read the data points in the graph from the link I gave you from RCP? Can you see, or are you intentionally blind to the fact that Obama's lead has been INCREASING and not FADING as you have stated?

Here are the key data points:

8/25: Obama 45.5 McCain 43.9
8/26: Obama 45.7 McCain 44.0
8/27: Obama 46.5 McCain 44.7
8/28: Obama 47.2 McCain 44.3
8/29: Obama 47.7 McCain 43.8
8/30: Obama 47.7 McCain 43.8
8/31: Obama 47.6 McCain 44.2
9/01: Obama 48.8 McCain 44.3
9/02: Obama 49.2 McCain 42.8

I hate to break it to you... but going from a 1.6 point average lead in polls to a 6.4 point average lead in the polls over the course of nine days is not FADING.

LIAR, or math challenged moron.... you make the call.

are you going to actually sit here and take the moral high ground when it comes to insults? as if you never went around insulting me. you spent an entire day a couple months ago of doing nothing but insulting me...you even got locked out threads for it. yet i turned into an rsr clone??? why don't you be honest and admit you enjoyed getting under my skin...you admitted here that you have read my posts, bravo on being honest. why don't you admit you gave as good, if not more, than you got... heck, you even insult me by calling me a liar in your post, and to you liar is one of the worst insults


i guess you have to look at which polls...the poll in my link, gallup, said:


On Saturday, Gallup reported Obama was ahead by 8 percentage points. By Monday, that lead had shrunk to 5 points.

and


A CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll and a Zogby Interactive flash poll, both completed over the weekend, have found the presidential race is in a dead heat. According to both polls, Obama attained no statistically significant convention bounce.

why do you think your candidate got such a tiny bounce?

[retiredman]

are you going to actually sit here and take the moral high ground when it comes to insults? as if you never went around insulting me. you spent an entire day a couple months ago of doing nothing but insulting me...you even got locked out threads for it. yet i turned into an rsr clone??? why don't you be honest and admit you enjoyed getting under my skin...you admitted here that you have read my posts, bravo on being honest. why don't you admit you gave as good, if not more, than you got... heck, you even insult me by calling me a liar in your post, and to you liar is one of the worst insults


i guess you have to look at which polls...the poll in my link, gallup, said:



and



why do you think your candidate got such a tiny bounce?

like I said, RCP is an average of polls. It is the site that your amigo RSR used to trumpet as his favorite site. YOU want to hang your hat on one poll...I post an average of many polls which shows Obama's lead increasing and NOT fading. Like I said...the graph in my thread proves you are a liar...

and I really don't care about whether or not you find "liar" to be insulting or not.... you have called me a liar so fucking many times, I have lost count....and you did it every time KNOWING that it got under my skin. I asked you quite nicely to retract those slanderous insults and agree to debate on a higher plane and you refused, which is why I have you on ignore. This thread drew me back in, and I am kicking myself for letting that happen.

Fact is: you are a liar. Obama's lead is increasing and not fading. I proved it. Now I am going to walk away from this thread - and from you - as a winner...and having proved that you are a fucking liar...or a math moron....

like I said. take your pick.

[Yurt]

according to gallup, he is fading...

are you saying gallup is lying? how is it you call me a liar when i only quoted gallup. i never said an average, i quoted an article and all you have are insults. i called you a liar in this thread and in pm because i knew you were reading my posts when you claimed on was on ignore...you then admitted you read my posts here...you can't debate and your posts in this thread prove that. sad, because like you said, i did enjoy debates with you before you became a hateful, insulting, bitter person.

kindly retract that i am liar for citing gallup. in fact, why don't you just put me back on ignore, it is clear you get your panties in a bunch when debating me, you can't handle me, i am too good for you.

[retiredman]

according to gallup, he is fading...

are you saying gallup is lying? how is it you call me a liar when i only quoted gallup. i never said an average, i quoted an article and all you have are insults. i called you a liar in this thread and in pm because i knew you were reading my posts when you claimed on was on ignore...you then admitted you read my posts here...you can't debate and your posts in this thread prove that. sad, because like you said, i did enjoy debates with you before you became a hateful, insulting, bitter person.

kindly retract that i am liar for citing gallup. in fact, why don't you just put me back on ignore, it is clear you get your panties in a bunch when debating me, you can't handle me, i am too good for you.

what does the RCP graph show?



and here's a hint: given the dozens of times I have asked you to retract calling me a liar...you can wish that I would retract my calling you a liar in one hand and shit in the other and tell me which one fills up faster.

I will NEVER treat you with any respect when you have proven over and over and over again that you have none for me. It is that simple.

[Yurt]

i told you to put me back on ignore because you can't debate, you only insult...

[retiredman]

what does the RCP graph show?

[retiredman]

What does the GALLUP poll show?

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh08gen.htm#Gallup

:dance:

[Yurt]

what does the RCP graph show?

put me on ignore unless you can stop continously insulting me

i quoted gallup, not rcp, hardly makes me a liar now does it...

[retiredman]

put me on ignore unless you can stop continously insulting me

i quoted gallup, not rcp, hardly makes me a liar now does it...

what does the gallup poll show?

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh08gen.htm#Gallup:dance:

oh...and you still are on ignore...I just choose to read your posts in this thread...

[Yurt]

from the article i linked to in the OP:

On Saturday, Gallup reported Obama was ahead by 8 percentage points. By Monday, that lead had shrunk to 5 points. Rasmussen pegs Obama’s standing as relatively stable in recent days, with a 49 percent to 46 percent lead over McCain when “leaners” are included, a small but statistically insignificant improvement for McCain of 1 percentage point since Saturday.


and mfm can't answer why obama's bounce is smaller than bob dole's....

[manu1959]

from the article i linked to in the OP:

On Saturday, Gallup reported Obama was ahead by 8 percentage points. By Monday, that lead had shrunk to 5 points. Rasmussen pegs Obama’s standing as relatively stable in recent days, with a 49 percent to 46 percent lead over McCain when “leaners” are included, a small but statistically insignificant improvement for McCain of 1 percentage point since Saturday.


and mfm can't answer why obama's bounce is smaller than bob dole's....

i hear bob can dunk and obama can't hit the three..........







oops wrong thread.......:laugh2:

[Yurt]

what does the gallup poll show?

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh08gen.htm#Gallup:dance:

oh...and you still are on ignore...I just choose to read your posts in this thread...

:lol:

then ignore me fully, not half assed, wuss :laugh2:

you just proved to everyone that it is you who is the one throwing insults...i did not even need to help you, you opened your big mouth and beat yourself up

now stop responding to me in this thread and go back to full ignore

[retiredman]

from the article i linked to in the OP:

On Saturday, Gallup reported Obama was ahead by 8 percentage points. By Monday, that lead had shrunk to 5 points. Rasmussen pegs Obama’s standing as relatively stable in recent days, with a 49 percent to 46 percent lead over McCain when “leaners” are included, a small but statistically insignificant improvement for McCain of 1 percentage point since Saturday.


and mfm can't answer why obama's bounce is smaller than bob dole's....


again...what does the gallup poll say? can you address that or not?

the poll shows his lead is increasing...NOT fading as you have stated.

why can't you address that simple fact? why must you run away?

[manu1959]

again...what does the gallup poll say? can you address that or not?

the poll shows his lead is increasing...NOT fading as you have stated.

why can't you address that simple fact? why must you run away?

didn't gallup predict a gore win then a kerry win........

[Yurt]

:lol:

then ignore me fully, not half assed, wuss :laugh2:

you just proved to everyone that it is you who is the one throwing insults...i did not even need to help you, you opened your big mouth and beat yourself up

now stop responding to me in this thread and go back to full ignore

we posted at this same time

[retiredman]

we posted at this same time


what does gallup say?

[Yurt]

what does the RCP graph show?



and here's a hint: given the dozens of times I have asked you to retract calling me a liar...you can wish that I would retract my calling you a liar in one hand and shit in the other and tell me which one fills up faster.

I will NEVER treat you with any respect when you have proven over and over and over again that you have none for me. It is that simple.

quoting a news story on yahoo does not make me a liar, you calling me a liar in this thread only shows that you are in fact the liar. go after my source, i don't care, but to call me a liar for quoting a news story, that is an outright lie and you know it.

[Yurt]

is someone who has me on ignore talking to me :laugh2:

[retiredman]

is someone who has me on ignore talking to me

is someone who does not have me on ignore running away from the fact that the gallup poll shows Obama's lead increasing and not fading?:laugh2:


coward.

[Yurt]

quoting a news story on yahoo does not make me a liar, you calling me a liar in this thread only shows that you are in fact the liar. go after my source, i don't care, but to call me a liar for quoting a news story, that is an outright lie and you know it.

learn to read wimp...you are the one who is so scared of me that you have to put me on ignore because you can't handle debating me...you're merely showing what a hypocrite fool you are by continuing to chase me like a love starved puppy

now go on now, go back to full ignore...

[retiredman]

learn to read wimp...you are the one who is so scared of me that you have to put me on ignore because you can't handle debating me...you're merely showing what a hypocrite fool you are by continuing to chase me like a love starved puppy

now go on now, go back to full ignore...

answer the question first. what does the gallup poll indicate? an increasing lead or a fading lead?

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh08gen.htm#Gallup

simple question.

and as I said, then, and now...I put you on ignore not because I am "scared of you" but because I cannot stomach your nonstop insults of me. I got sucked into this thread and will not make this mistake again.

[Yurt]

put me on ignore, you have done nothing but insult me in this thread and in fact threw the first insult in this thread moron

stop following me around like an obsessed gender confused school boy

[manu1959]

put me on ignore, you have done nothing but insult me in this thread and in fact threw the first insult in this thread moron

stop following me around like an obsessed gender confused school boy

he is a pastor......he isn't confused....just doing what comes naturally.......

[retiredman]

put me on ignore, you have done nothing but insult me in this thread and in fact threw the first insult in this thread moron

stop following me around like an obsessed gender confused school boy

just answer my question: what does the gallup poll show? does it show an increasing lead or a fading lead?

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh08gen.htm#Gallup

[retiredman]

http://www.gallup.com/poll/109960/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Hits-50-First-Time.aspx

FADING??????:laugh2:

[retiredman]

bump:lol:

[Yurt]

http://xoxolovelisa.com/xo/wp-content/uploads/2008/05/sketchbook001.jpg

[manu1959]

just answer my question: what does the gallup poll show? does it show an increasing lead or a fading lead?

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh08gen.htm#Gallup

it shows obama trended up during his convention.......obama picked up six and mccain lost 4.........shocking i tell you .... shocking......

if the trend holds ..... mccain will pick up 6 and obama lose 4 and it will be a dead heat again......

[red states rule]

http://www.gallup.com/poll/109960/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Hits-50-First-Time.aspx

FADING??????:laugh2:

Now MFM, go ahead and claim you are not reading this post, and whatever you do - do not reply to it

Your guy got at best a 5 point bounce - less then half the normal bounce for the Dem nominee



snip

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows Barack Obama attracting 48% of the vote while John McCain earns 43%. When "leaners" are included, it’s Obama 51%, McCain 45%. This is the highest level of support enjoyed by Obama at any point in Election 2008 (see recent daily results).


http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

[retiredman]

it shows obama trended up during his convention.......obama picked up six and mccain lost 4.........shocking i tell you .... shocking......

if the trend holds ..... mccain will pick up 6 and obama lose 4 and it will be a dead heat again......


so you would agree that the gallup poll shows that Obama has widened his lead in the wake of his convention? We are in total agreement. I would suggest that people who try to say exactly the opposite are not being truthful. Would you agree?

[red states rule]

so you would agree that the gallup poll shows that Obama has widened his lead in the wake of his convention? We are in total agreement. I would suggest that people who try to say exactly the opposite are not being truthful. Would you agree?

If you can be proud of such a small bounce - go ahead and dance :dance:

It shows either Obama got a luke warm reaction to his speech - or what a great impact Gov Plain is having on the election :laugh2:

[mundame]

It shows either Obama got a luke warm reaction to his speech - or what a great impact Gov Plain is having on the election :laugh2:


No, the numbers clearly show Obama is roaring ahead now. His rise in the polls is better than John Kerry did after his convention, after all.

And Obama is over 50% now, so if that continues, it's all over.

This is McCain's fault, because he picked an idiot for VP.

[retiredman]

No, the numbers clearly show Obama is roaring ahead now. His rise in the polls is better than John Kerry did after his convention, after all.

And Obama is over 50% now, so if that continues, it's all over.

This is McCain's fault, because he picked an idiot for VP.

I agree.... Obama's poll numbers continued to rise even after the Palin announcement....

[mundame]

Obama's poll numbers continued to rise even after the Palin announcement....


Right, that's the thing.

Well, it might not continue, or something weird may happen, but over 50% IS the White House, after all.

Assuming the Electoral College votes go along with the over 50%!!! Jeepers, I'd better qualify that after 2000.

Right now McCain has Ohio and Florida still, and Obama has Pennsylvania ---- that implies a McCain victory if he holds those states, as nobody has won the presidency without two of the three. If one shifts, though, it's all over.

[Yurt]

according to gallup today it is no longer 50%, rather 49% :laugh2:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/109996/Gallup-Daily-Obama-49-McCain-43.aspx

[PostmodernProphet]

Right, that's the thing.

Well, it might not continue, or something weird may happen, but over 50% IS the White House, after all.

Assuming the Electoral College votes go along with the over 50%!!! Jeepers, I'd better qualify that after 2000.

Right now McCain has Ohio and Florida still, and Obama has Pennsylvania ---- that implies a McCain victory if he holds those states, as nobody has won the presidency without two of the three. If one shifts, though, it's all over.

actually, we have lots of new swing states this election cycle....Michigan, Minnesotta, Colorado, Virginia.....and that's before looking at any changes in women's votes.....

[Yurt]

:laugh2:

[Yurt]

again...if people have the ability to read graphs, they understand that the premise of this thread is a lie.

but that is to be expected from the moronic author of this thread, which is why I have him on ignore.... I cannot ignore the tread titles, however, and this one begged for a response which the RCP graph aptly produces.

so busted on this lie...



yurt. I can debate...and I can recall when you and I used to have quite interesting debates..... that was before you turned into an RSR clone and made insulting me your M.O. I have read your posts in this thread. The OP is based upon a LIE... can you or can you not read the data points in the graph from the link I gave you from RCP? Can you see, or are you intentionally blind to the fact that Obama's lead has been INCREASING and not FADING as you have stated?

Here are the key data points:

8/25: Obama 45.5 McCain 43.9
8/26: Obama 45.7 McCain 44.0
8/27: Obama 46.5 McCain 44.7
8/28: Obama 47.2 McCain 44.3
8/29: Obama 47.7 McCain 43.8
8/30: Obama 47.7 McCain 43.8
8/31: Obama 47.6 McCain 44.2
9/01: Obama 48.8 McCain 44.3
9/02: Obama 49.2 McCain 42.8

I hate to break it to you... but going from a 1.6 point average lead in polls to a 6.4 point average lead in the polls over the course of nine days is not FADING.

LIAR, or math challenged moron.... you make the call.

oh yeah, your boy is fading

RCP Average 08/29 - 09/03 -- 47.6 43.2 Obama +4.4

[Yurt]

still fading... :laugh2:


RCP Average 08/29 - 09/04 -- 47.0 43.8

[retiredman]

both conventions are over. both candidates have named their running mates. both running mates and both candidates have spoken at the conventions and to the american people. the arenas are empty now. the delegates have gone home. both candidates received something of a "bounce" from their conventions. Bottom line: the day before the democratic convention, RCP had Obama ahead by 1.6. The day after the republican convention, RCP has Obama ahead by 2.6. Let's campaign.

[Yurt]

lets do!

don't forget the polls when jfk ran against bush

[eighballsidepocket]

Rasmussen today had the difference at one point......Which is statistically a "dead heat".

[eighballsidepocket]

lets do!

don't forget the polls when jfk ran against bush

You mean Kerry when you did "jfk"?

[Yurt]

You mean Kerry when you did "jfk"?

yup, John F(orget me not) Kerry

[Abbey Marie]

I just saw this on Yahoo news:

Obama 46.6%
McCain 44%

[Yurt]

I just saw this on Yahoo news:

Obama 46.6%
McCain 44%

are you tellling obama's bounce is fading :laugh2:

[retiredman]

it does appear that Obama's bounce was slightly bouncier than McCain's. It will be an interesting two months.

[Yurt]

it does appear that Obama's bounce was slightly bouncier than McCain's. It will be an interesting two months.

would not be surprised if it remains so, mccain is not a pazzaz kind of public speaker in terms of being able to whip up an audience like obama or palin. so it will be interesting to see how the orator does against vast experience and knowledge.

[Yurt]

and FADING some more :laugh2:


RCP Average 08/29 - 09/06 -- 46.0

i suppose we won't hear a peep from those that said this was not true

[retiredman]

convention bounces are real. Obama got one...McCain ( or should I say, Palin) got one. Time to campaign. time to debate. then it will be time to vote.

[red states rule]

convention bounces are real. Obama got one...McCain ( or should I say, Palin) got one. Time to campaign. time to debate. then it will be time to vote.

McCain not only got a much bigger bounce, but more people tuned in to watch his speech (and the same for Gov Palin)

Voters are seeing there is nothing new about the Dems - they are offering the same old, tired, worn out tax and spend ideas they are infamous for