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View Full Version : John Bolton On Georgia, EU, US, and UN



Kathianne
08-15-2008, 04:42 PM
The only ones that knew what they were doing were the Russians:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/georgia/2563260/John-Bolton-After-Russias-invasion-of-Georgia-what-now-for-the-West.html

This is really worth reading for anyone that wants to know about hegemony and power. Boulton is blunt to a fault about what went wrong and why. Needless to say, not much nice to Condi Rice or George Bush. He also offers some suggestions that need to be implemented quickly. The following is the analysis of why it happened:



After Russia's invasion of Georgia, what now for the West?
At least for now, the smoke seems to be clearing from the Georgian battlefield. But the extent of the wreckage reaches far beyond that small country.

By John R Bolton

Last Updated: 2:32PM BST 15 Aug 2008

...The West, collectively, failed in this crisis. Georgia wasted its dime making that famous 3am telephone call to the White House, the one Hillary Clinton referred to in a campaign ad questioning Barack Obama’s fitness for the Presidency. Moreover, the blood on the Bear’s claws did not go unobserved in other states that were once part of the Soviet Union. Russia demonstrated unambiguously that it could have marched directly to Tbilisi and installed a puppet government before any Western leader was able to turn away from the Olympic Games. It could, presumably, do the same to them.

Fear was one reaction Russia wanted to provoke, and fear it has achieved, not just in the “Near Abroad” but in the capitals of Western Europe as well. But its main objective was hegemony, a hegemony it demonstrated by pledging to reconstruct Tskhinvali, the capital of its once and no-longer-future possession, South Ossetia. The contrast is stark: a real demonstration of using sticks and carrots, the kind that American and European diplomats only talk about. Moreover, Russia is now within an eyelash of dominating the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, the only route out of the Caspian Sea region not now controlled by either Russia or Iran. Losing this would be dramatically unhelpful if we hope for continued reductions in global petroleum prices, and energy independence from unfriendly, or potentially unfriendly, states.

It profits us little to blame Georgia for “provoking” the Russian attack. Nor is it becoming of the United States to have anonymous officials from its State Department telling reporters, as they did earlier this week, that they had warned Georgia not to provoke Russia. This confrontation is not about who violated the Marquess of Queensbury rules in South Ossetia, where ethnic violence has been a fact of life since the break-up of the Soviet Union on December 31, 1991 – and, indeed, long before. Instead, we are facing the much larger issue of how Russia plans to behave in international affairs for decades to come. Whether Mikhail Saakashvili “provoked” the Russians on August 8, or September 8, or whenever, this rape was well-planned and clearly coming, given Georgia’s manifest unwillingness to be “Finlandized” – the Cold War term for effectively losing your foreign-policy independence.

...

Dilloduck
08-15-2008, 05:10 PM
Europe’s rejection this spring of President Bush’s proposal to start Ukraine and Georgia towards Nato membership was the real provocation to Russia, because it exposed Western weakness and timidity. As long as that perception exists in Moscow, the risk to other former Soviet territories – and in precarious regions such as the Middle East – will remain

from the same link

Blame Europe !

Kathianne
08-15-2008, 06:27 PM
from the same link

Blame Europe !

Indeed, Europe blocked the NATO bids and also it was Sarkozy that represented the EU for the Chamberlain type sell out, which did not result in a cease fire, until after Russia did as they wished.

diuretic
08-15-2008, 09:46 PM
Indeed, Europe blocked the NATO bids and also it was Sarkozy that represented the EU for the Chamberlain type sell out, which did not result in a cease fire, until after Russia did as they wished.

Can we call that realpolitik though? I mean, Russia is probably going to try and get back as many of its former republics (at least the ones that give them an advantge economically - say in energy) as it can. Europe is going to concede that I think, but only up to a point. It could be that the Russians realise that and won't push Europe to the point where there will be a flashpoint. The former republics and client states to the west of Russia (the Baltic states, Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Ukraine and the non-Serbian republics of the former Yugoslavia) I think would be off limits. But over to the east it may be that Europe has tacitly decided to turn a blind eye, mouth a few concerns and leave it at that.

For me that's reality politics.

Kathianne
08-15-2008, 10:02 PM
Can we call that realpolitik though? I mean, Russia is probably going to try and get back as many of its former republics (at least the ones that give them an advantge economically - say in energy) as it can. Europe is going to concede that I think, but only up to a point. It could be that the Russians realise that and won't push Europe to the point where there will be a flashpoint. The former republics and client states to the west of Russia (the Baltic states, Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Ukraine and the non-Serbian republics of the former Yugoslavia) I think would be off limits. But over to the east it may be that Europe has tacitly decided to turn a blind eye, mouth a few concerns and leave it at that.

For me that's reality politics.

I don't think we are in agreement, at least not in toto, however let me say a few things here:

* No one has been more 'friendly' to the Russian, former Eastern block, and former Europeans under Soviet control than US government. They did all but bonk over the head trying to get US businesses to invest there. Problem was, 2 times burnt, business with exception of oil, decided to wait awhile. (Have been proven correct.) Meaning Russia has decided all their eggs in one basket, much like SA., however they've burnt more than a few bridges with oil.

* I think you are seriously mistaken about their eye on Ukraine. Partially for the reason of oil, more importantly, Ukraine is succeeding beyond that, by a long shot. Educated and hard working, they have a people that offer more than oil and are not waiting for the government to produce.

* The breakup of Soviet Union cost Russia much, gave satellites much. While many Russians were depressed at loss of status, the others still see hope. There is a local as well as geopolitical psychology going on here.

* More seriously, deadly, never underestimate the Europeans for bringing the world bloody wars. We sit here, you and I and look at this as somewhat of a Risk game. It's not. We're too young, though close to a half century old. Neither of us, as analytical as we may be, really understand the history of Europe. It's beyond either of our home countries experiences, though our forefathers paid some of the price.

bullypulpit
08-16-2008, 06:21 AM
The real question here is why anyone takes anything John Bolton has to say seriously.

Psychoblues
08-16-2008, 06:36 AM
Exactly, bp. His record of late is not stellar, is it?!??!?!?!?!?!



The real question here is why anyone takes anything John Bolton has to say seriously.

:salute::cheers2::clap::laugh2::cheers2::salute:

Gaffer
08-16-2008, 08:49 AM
John Bolton thinks the way I do, and has a lot more insight and connections than I do. He's my choice for McCains VP. Won't happen but it would insure my vote.

I saw by the comments section the libs are still clueless.

Kathianne
08-16-2008, 09:10 AM
John Bolton thinks the way I do, and has a lot more insight and connections than I do. He's my choice for McCains VP. Won't happen but it would insure my vote.

I saw by the comments section the libs are still clueless.

Well it's a UK paper. Amazing reading those, at least a 4:1 in nutters favor.

avatar4321
08-16-2008, 09:15 AM
The real question here is why anyone takes anything John Bolton has to say seriously.

The same reason we don't take anything you say seriously. Credibility.