Texas Hold'em V Russian Roulette

[Kathianne]

Interesting, Gaffer and I have been discussing this a bit. Austin Bay has come up with a name for it.

http://austinbay.net/blog/?p=1951


8/13/2008
UPDATED: Texas Hold’em versus Russian Roulette = The New Eastern Front? Let’s explore an alternative military option
Filed under: General — site admin @ 4:59 pm

Follow my blog posts and this week’s newspaper column and it’s clear that I’m looking at the diplomatic mid-term and long-term for resolution of the Russo-Georgia War.

However, this morning I had “one of those conversations” about US and Western European military options—in the gym. Hey, these chats are occurring in defense ministries, in State Departments, in trenches outside of Tbilisi — the difference is, the conversation in the gym doesn’t matter while the ones in the ministries and trenches do.

So what military forces could the US send? The gym talk was a serioius conversation, after a fashion. I’d also had this exchange with a commenter on a prior post regarding the Russian decision to halt:

Commenter 2: “I believe Russia decided to quit before the counter stroke could be applied. At least it looks that way if you consider the terms of the armistice.”

My reply is fairly involved but it included this: “Would the counter-stroke you forsee involve Georgian allies? Now that follows a different time line, doesn’t it…?”

Reinforcement is a “counter-stroke” – one with risks.

Moving Georgia’s Iraq force home in US air transports was a reminder of US strategic reach. That was a military option and it has been employed. WHo knows? It may have given Moscow some pause. We’ve already seen at least one quasi-military option employed. Using USAF cargo planes to bring humanitarian supplies is standard policy – but a C-17 is a US military plane. That is a message, a limited, careful, but calculated message, and constitutes a low-risk option that, well, the order has been given and the transports are flying. The presence of US military training forces in Georgia is a message — one Russia chose to ignore. Beefing up the training and support mission is a military option...

[Kathianne]

Not good:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080814/ap_on_re_eu/georgia_russia;_ylt=Akb.YURrCCg6Hm8tGX6JmRp0bBAF


Russia: 'Forget' Georgian territorial integrity

By CHRISTOPHER TORCHIA, Associated Press Writer 32 minutes ago

Explosions were heard near Gori on Thursday as a Russian troop withdrawal from the strategic city seemed to collapse. A fragile cease-fire appeared even more shaky as Russia's foreign minister declared that the world "can forget about any talk about Georgia's territorial integrity."

The declaration from Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov came simultaneously with the announcement that Russian President Dmitry Medvedev was meeting in the Kremlin with the leaders of Georgia's two separatist provinces.

"One can forget about any talk about Georgia's territorial integrity because, I believe, it is impossible to persuade South Ossetia and Abkhazia to agree with the logic that they can be forced back into the Georgian state," Lavrov told reporters...

[Gaffer]

I get the impression this could be a korea like operation. The Georgian forces will slowly withdraw and allied forces will be sent in, then a push back with possibly a coastal landing to cut the supply lines.

The russians will either have to withdraw or open fronts everywhere against everybody. The russians are thugs, that want power and money, they will not take a chance on getting annihilated. They will pull back and start planning their next move.

[Kathianne]

I get the impression this could be a korea like operation. The Georgian forces will slowly withdraw and allied forces will be sent in, then a push back with possibly a coastal landing to cut the supply lines.

The russians will either have to withdraw or open fronts everywhere against everybody. The russians are thugs, that want power and money, they will not take a chance on getting annihilated. They will pull back and start planning their next move.

Hmmm, I saw it more like hard diplomacy combined with credible power, which I guess is the definition of hard diplomacy, short of conflict between more equal powers?

I don't think Russia needs to worry about annihilation, though they still want into the financial part of today's world, ie., G8 and WTO, both should be denied for now. G8 can be disbanded and resume as G7; entry into WTO, no.

[Gaffer]

Hmmm, I saw it more like hard diplomacy combined with credible power, which I guess is the definition of hard diplomacy, short of conflict between more equal powers?

I don't think Russia needs to worry about annihilation, though they still want into the financial part of today's world, ie., G8 and WTO, both should be denied for now. G8 can be disbanded and resume as G7; entry into WTO, no.

I agree, the world needs to come down on russia financially, it will hurt them a lot more in the long run. But it looks like they are going to have to be stopped militarily before any other action can be taken. They have basically announced they intend to take over Georgia.

[Kathianne]

I agree, the world needs to come down on russia financially, it will hurt them a lot more in the long run. But it looks like they are going to have to be stopped militarily before any other action can be taken. They have basically announced they intend to take over Georgia.

I think their bellicosity will be challenged, then we'll see what they decide. Really, a lot will depend on EU, I see that Sarkozy is pushing his '6 points' for finalization in the UN. Oh those 6 points basically include getting rid of the President of Georgia.

The West has to hang together or we will be hanging separately.

[Gaffer]

I think their bellicosity will be challenged, then we'll see what they decide. Really, a lot will depend on EU, I see that Sarkozy is pushing his '6 points' for finalization in the UN. Oh those 6 points basically include getting rid of the President of Georgia.

The West has to hang together or we will be hanging separately.

So true.

It really is a matter for the EU. They are the ones that should be stepping up to the plate now and taking real action. They are the ones under a real threat from an expanding russia.

Georgia is an ally of ours, but what happens there will not have any effect on the US except in opinions. The oil doesn't affect us and the economy there doesn't affect us. The fact that russia is attacking a sovereign country and taking it over does affect us as others will follow. And doing nothing will encourage other countries to do the same and russia to go after more. They want their evil empire back.

As I have said before. "This will not stand" should be the mantra of the west. If it can be justified in kuwaite then it can definitely apply in Georgia.

[avatar4321]

So true.

It really is a matter for the EU. They are the ones that should be stepping up to the plate now and taking real action. They are the ones under a real threat from an expanding russia.

Georgia is an ally of ours, but what happens there will not have any effect on the US except in opinions. The oil doesn't affect us and the economy there doesn't affect us. The fact that russia is attacking a sovereign country and taking it over does affect us as others will follow. And doing nothing will encourage other countries to do the same and russia to go after more. They want their evil empire back.

As I have said before. "This will not stand" should be the mantra of the west. If it can be justified in kuwaite then it can definitely apply in Georgia.

They are afraid. War against Iraq to liberate Kuwait was meaningless. Saddam may have been dangerous, but they saw him as a weakling. He may have had WMDs but not nuclear weapons

War against Russia to liberate Georgia.... trust me, they are scared. no one wants to deal with that.

[Kathianne]

They are afraid. War against Iraq to liberate Kuwait was meaningless. Saddam may have been dangerous, but they saw him as a weakling. He may have had WMDs but not nuclear weapons

War against Russia to liberate Georgia.... trust me, they are scared. no one wants to deal with that.

Who's talking 'war'? Not now, but if the picture doesn't change, down the road? Nearly inevitable.

The picture of Sarkozy with his 6 points, "Peace in Our Times" came to mind. Of course, Russia is still attacking.

[Gaffer]

The russians have made a tactical pause. They are assessing how to proceed. To move on the Georgian capitol means crossing four bridges. Choke points that will be difficult as the Georgians have positioned themselves to hold these points. They only have to buy time for now to allow the rest of the world to take action.

The russians could also be bringing up bridging equipment to avoid having to take the bridges that might be destroyed anyway.

I don't care what Gates and the DoD says, the russians are not pulling back.

[Kathianne]

The russians have made a tactical pause. They are assessing how to proceed. To move on the Georgian capitol means crossing four bridges. Choke points that will be difficult as the Georgians have positioned themselves to hold these points. They only have to buy time for now to allow the rest of the world to take action.

The russians could also be bringing up bridging equipment to avoid having to take the bridges that might be destroyed anyway.

I don't care what Gates and the DoD says, the russians are not pulling back.

I agree, they are trying to figure if they can set this board for keeps. If EU will go along with US regarding financial punishment and political isolation, Putin may pull back. EU could offer to send troops into Georgia and separatists areas as buffer. US troops should NOT be deployed. That's my opinion. While Georgia has been a good ally, in less than days, Bush made clear that we'll do what we can, including getting their troops out of Iraq and into Georgia. But, this is a European problem, as was Kosovo. IF we had not interfered there, Russia could not claim that lame argument.

[avatar4321]

I agree, they are trying to figure if they can set this board for keeps. If EU will go along with US regarding financial punishment and political isolation, Putin may pull back. EU could offer to send troops into Georgia and separatists areas as buffer. US troops should NOT be deployed. That's my opinion. While Georgia has been a good ally, in less than days, Bush made clear that we'll do what we can, including getting their troops out of Iraq and into Georgia. But, this is a European problem, as was Kosovo. IF we had not interfered there, Russia could not claim that lame argument.

I am not sure threatening financial sactions against them will do anything. Seizing the pipeline in Georgia gives Russia a Monopoly on energy being shipped into Europe. With that kind of power they can extort as much money as they want.

[Kathianne]

I am not sure threatening financial sactions against them will do anything. Seizing the pipeline in Georgia gives Russia a Monopoly on energy being shipped into Europe. With that kind of power they can extort as much money as they want.

Russia is oil rich now, that wasn't their main concern. It's spheres of influence, ie hegemony and NATO expansion.

[avatar4321]

Russia is oil rich now, that wasn't their main concern. It's spheres of influence, ie hegemony and NATO expansion.

And what better way to increase your sphere of influence then monopolize the energy supply?

[Kathianne]

And what better way to increase your sphere of influence then monopolize the energy supply?

I tend to look at this from a historical perspective. It's about power, appearance of power, controlling the area. Russia, like a strong Germany, has always been wary of not having buffers from invasions.

I agree that more money is always a good thing, for people, for countries. In this case as opposed to 10 years ago, Russia can balance their checkbook and then some. Did you notice all that nice, new equipment they are lining the streets of Georgia with. Blatant display of power and wealth.

[Gaffer]

The russians were anxious to show off their new hardware and decided to invade Georgia. :laugh2:

This is not so much about oil, as Kath said, it's more about power and intimidation. They want the former eastern bloc countries back and they want to re-establish their empire.

Look for a new iron curtain to be established soon and reopening of the gulags.