Russia and Georgia and US Credibility

[Kathianne]

I've been reading about this for two days, not surprised that it happened to coincide with the Olympics. I don't see how the US can handle this, China may well step in. The whole thing is very complex, the following link demonstrates why. There are lots of links:

http://tigerhawk.blogspot.com/2008/08/on-prowl-bear-moves-on-south-ossetia.html


...

# Vladimir Putin is exploiting George W. Bush's weakness, which is brought on by the fact that he is thought to be too unpopular and his administration too distracted for the United States to mount effective opposition to the Russian attack.


# The United States has invested credibility in Georgia's security (the article notes that 1000 United States Marines were in the country just last month on a training mission). If we do not respond in some fairly firm way other former Soviet states are going to wonder, with more than a little justification, whether our friendship is valuable.


# The reaction of the various former Soviet states -- Ukraine, the 'Stans, and so forth -- will be very interesting and potentially enormously significant for the security of both Europe and central Asia.


# The Europeans will intensify their recent internal debate about their security against resurgent Russian expansionism. The doves will campaign for appeasement and anti-Americanism, and the realists will call for closer ties with the United States. This debate will replay, in modern terms, the intra-European arguments of the early Cold War (for the full story read the single best history of that long conflict). John Noonan is already arguing that Russia would not have invaded if NATO had taken George Bush's advice and admitted Georgia. Maybe, or perhaps NATO's credibility would now also lie in tatters.


# How will the Chinese react? It may have been no accident that Putin launched the attack on a day that he knew, months in advance, that he would be with both George W. Bush and Hu Jintao. Perhaps they will provide the security in Central Asia that the United States now seems unable to guarantee


# Today's invasion may well increase the likelihood that the United States and Iran reach an accomodation. Or it will increase the likelihood that Russia will send military aid to Iran to pin down the U.S. from the rear. Either way, Iran just got less secure -- and it is already feeling insecure -- and even more important to the two biggest players in the region -- and it is already very important. Watch what Iran does, not what it says.


# This attack seems well-coordinated enough that it had to have been planned for some time. The claimed provocation of Georgia's incursion into South Ossetia -- a breakway province that is, after all, recognized as Georgian territory -- is probably just pretext.


# According to the linked article, Russia attacked Georgia's facilities for exporting oil. Of course, Russia is a huge oil exporter and would benefit if oil returned to its prices of only a month ago. Amazingly, the price of oil did not spike even after news of the invasion. That suggests that the dynamics of that market have turned decisively, er, bearish.


# The crisis does offer a study in contrasts between the two American presidential candidates. The left believes that Barack Obama's response is superior on its face to John McCain's, and I would say the reverse....

[Kathianne]

Another good and informed piece. There are links, especially at the beginning:

http://www.blackfive.net/main/2008/08/no-its-not-good.html#more


No, It's Not Good At All
Posted By Laughing_Wolf

The last couple of weeks have been intense, and the hours long, so think of what follows as something of a day journal note a la the Original Blog. I know that my lack of time is a problem for some, but this is some food for thought that I think needs to be out there as a follow-up to COB6's posts here and here, even though I don't have the time to flesh it out as I would like. For those that want or need to know, I used to write about the Soviet Union -- in particular it's space-related activities -- and did as my Master's thesis a tome entitled The Soviet Watchers: A Directory of Western Observers of Soviet Space Efforts. That said, here are the day notes on why I think the invasion of Georgia is not good at all. Especially with news this morning that Georgia has formally declared a state of war to exist, and that the Russians appear to have sortied portions or all of its Black Sea fleet (possibly aiming at Abkhazia) and claim to now control the capital of South Ossetia. Note also the Clinton-era pols rushing to declare Georgia dead as a potential NATO member and not worthy of much support...

This is nothing less than a direct challenge to the U.S. and an effort to break the Georgian government so as to put back into power the pro-Russia group (or even under direct control). The surface cause is one that has been built up over the last several years, with Russia pushing as hard as it could get away with internationally to put in "peacekeepers" openly and arm/support the rebels not terribly clandestinely. There have been several previous attempts to spark a reaction from Georgia, including direct incursions into Georgian territory, incursions into Georgian airspace, and even attacks on Georgian aircraft and other assets. Behind it lies several factors.

First, there is the fact that Russia wants to control the border states just as it did before. They have not been shy about it in some of the other states, but Georgia and Ukraine both had something the others didn't: resources....

Seventh, I think Russia is very well aware that this would also have a strong negative effect on the War on Terror. Destabilizing Georgia will create the potential for a strong and even prolonged pulse of people and supplies along the "Jihad Road" headed both East and West. That this would also tend to cause destabilization in western China as well as in the Balkans works well for Russia. It allows them to regain or seize control of sections of the Balkans, and block moves by the U.S. and parts of Europe to bring order and nurture some emerging democracies. It also causes problems for current ally and long-term rival China. Russia has never mistaken short-term advantage via working with China for anything other than what it is, and if they can weaken or hurt China even as they use China against the U.S., all the better. Final thought, if you break up the alliances, much of what we have done and are working on will fail. It is not inconceivable that Russia may also be looking long term at even further expansion.

Also, if you think that the timing of this such that all major world leaders are in China for the Olympics is a coincidence, then I have some land I would like to sell you. I would very much love to know what is being openly and quietly said in Beijing right now, as I am just about willing to bet cash money that the Chinese are backing the Russian play. China has its own reasons to want this, including Taiwan. Fail to back an ally, bad enough. Cut and run, and the world-wide results would be catastrophic.

Those of us who used to monitor the Soviet Union have seen some of this coming for a while. The open events, such as the murder of Anna Politkovskaya was a clear indication that the Soviet-era methods were back in play, while the nasty and showy murder of Alexander Litvinenko made points lost on no one paying attention. These are two of the best known events, but many more have died, disappeared, etc. over the last few years who were even a minor threat to Putin and those working with him. They are willing and able to play for keeps, and I think they will be more than willing to escalate things in Georgia to levels we have not seen in several decades.

LW

[Kathianne]

http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/World-News/Russia-And-Georgia-In-All-Out-War-As-Troops-Clash-In-South-Ossetia/Article/200808215074261?lpos=World%2BNews_0&lid=ARTICLE_15074261_Russia%2BAnd%2BGeorgia%2BIn%2 BAll-Out%2BWar%2BAs%2BTroops%2BClash%2BIn%2BSouth%2BOss etia


A combined EU, US and Nato delegation will travel to Georgia to broker a ceasefire to the fighting, UK Defence Secretary Des Browne has told Sky News.

"This evening a delegation of US, EU, OSCE and NATO officials will be going to Georgia to try to broker a ceasefire," he said.

Foreign Secretary David Miliband also says he is holding "high level consultations" with European foreign ministers and US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice.

The announcements came as Georgia said it had repelled several attacks in the rebel Abkhazia region as fighting continues with Russian troops in South Ossetia.

President Mikheil Saakashvili says Georgia is in a "state of war" with Russia with the crisis showing no signs of ending.

The Russian prime minister Vladimir Putin has reportedly arrived in Vladikavkaz in the Russian region of North Ossetia.

Earlier today, Russia launched an aerial bombardment of the Georgian town of Gori and Georgia said Russian bombers have destroyed the Black Sea port of Poti.

Georgia also claimed that Russian fighter jets targeted the the major Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) oil pipeline but missed.

The pipeline carries oil to the West from Asia....

[Kathianne]

Actually probably more Russia trying to cut the money flowing into Georgia. Seems to me there are warning signs here to the Ukraine too:

http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/L9618164.htm



Russian jets targeted major oil pipeline-Georgia
09 Aug 2008 14:07:00 GMT
Source: Reuters
TBILISI, Aug 9 (Reuters) - Russian fighter jets targeted the the major Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) oil pipeline which carries oil to the West from Asia but missed, Georgia's Economic Development Minister Ekaterina Sharashidze said on Saturday.

"This clearly shows that Russia has not just targeted Georgian economic outlets but international economic outlets in Georgia," she said at a news briefing.

There have been no independent verifications of Russian jets targeting the BTC pipeline. (Reporting by Margarita Antidze, writing by James Kilner, editing by Jon Boyle)

Georgia may pull its athletes from the Olymipcs:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080809/ts_nm/olympics_dc

Scores dead, war may be widening:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/georgia_south_ossetia


Russian troops raid Georgian town; scores dead

By MUSA SADULAYEV, Associated Press Writer 45 minutes ago

...Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov told reporters in Moscow on Saturday that some 1,500 people have been killed in South Ossetia, with the death toll rising.

The figures could not be independently confirmed. But Tskhinvali residents who survived the bombardment by hiding in basements and later fled the city estimated that hundreds of civilians had died. They said bodies were lying everywhere.

The risk of the conflict setting off a wider war increased Saturday when Russian-supported separatists in another breakaway region, Abkhazia, launched air and artillery strikes to drive Georgian troops from their bridgehead.

Georgia, which borders the Black Sea between Turkey and Russia, was ruled by Moscow for most of the two centuries preceding the breakup of the Soviet Union....

[MtnBiker]

If this situation continues to escilate it will be interesting to see how it effects the US Presidential campaign.

[RUSSIAN]

If this situation continues to escilate it will be interesting to see how it effects the US Presidential campaign.

Guess what??!!!!! Whole russia is sooooo mad at u, stupid americans!!! omg!! ur sooo stupid, ur president tells u lies and u believe it!!! guess what??? the real thing is that: USA dectated Georgia to start war in South Osetia!!! It is profitable for USA to start war also with Russia, to start this conflict!! Georgia wants to get in NATO, that's why they listen to usa. president of georgia tells that russia started, so the whole world hate us, that's what america wants!!! btw, Russia demands georgia to stop all war actions, and also we send there ppl to help, medical help and all stuff!!!

[RUSSIAN]

plus, all the things that georgia tells about russia is lieeeeeeeee

[Said1]

Guess what??!!!!! Whole russia is sooooo mad at u, stupid americans!!! omg!! ur sooo stupid, ur president tells u lies and u believe it!!! guess what??? the real thing is that: USA dectated Georgia to start war in South Osetia!!! It is profitable for USA to start war also with Russia, to start this conflict!! Georgia wants to get in NATO, that's why they listen to usa. president of georgia tells that russia started, so the whole world hate us, that's what america wants!!! btw, Russia demands georgia to stop all war actions, and also we send there ppl to help, medical help and all stuff!!!

Wow. Your pretend bad spelling and fake bad grammar are top notch. Good punctuation, although the comma is supposed to go after the word 'and' now - I think.

[RUSSIAN]

I don't care about english spelling, you just have nothing smart to say against my post.

[Said1]

I don't care about english spelling, you just have nothing smart to say against my post.

Ok.

You tell me how what you said is related to what the person YOU quoted said? A draw me a picture, it will help.

[Kathianne]

Wow. Your pretend bad spelling and fake bad grammar are top notch. Good punctuation, although the comma is supposed to go after the word 'and' now - I think.

Well it appears to be coming from Volga. So there we have it. If a troll, a Russian troll.

[RUSSIAN]

that was mistake, ok? i didn't want to relate my words to that persons qoute.

[Kathianne]

that was mistake, ok? i didn't want to relate my words to that persons qoute.

What are YOU asking?

[Said1]

that was mistake, ok? i didn't want to relate my words to that persons qoute.

Ok.

So how do you know what you wrote is true, because your Russian media says so?

[RUSSIAN]

it is true, because we see the real situation. and you just believe your media. America wants to start an international conflict and cover Russian's reputation with dirt. All the real facts are changed, and what you see is fake.

[Said1]

it is true, because we see the real situation. and you just believe your media. America wants to start an international conflict and cover Russian's reputation with dirt. All the real facts are changed, and what you see is fake.

I don't have much faith in any media. But like I said, how do you know what is true, what exactly did you see that proves what you say?

[Dilloduck]

it is true, because we see the real situation. and you just believe your media. America wants to start an international conflict and cover Russian's reputation with dirt. All the real facts are changed, and what you see is fake.

What do you see----Americans in Georgia yelling "attack the Russians" ?

[avatar4321]

it is true, because we see the real situation. and you just believe your media. America wants to start an international conflict and cover Russian's reputation with dirt. All the real facts are changed, and what you see is fake.

After all Russia has such a great reptuation to begin with right?

[Said1]

What do you see----Americans in Georgia yelling "attack the Russians" ?

Actually, it's Canadians posing as Americans, but still. :laugh2:

[Dilloduck]

Actually, it's Canadians posing as Americans, but still. :laugh2:

You canucks do that crap to us all the time !!!!! :fu:

[RUSSIAN]

oh, i wish i knew english in a perfect way! you just don't get what i write. USA always tried their best to spoil Russian's reputation.

[Dilloduck]

oh, i wish i knew english in a perfect way! you just don't get what i write. USA always tried their best to spoil Russian's reputation.

I understand what you are saying----just prove it is true.

[Hobbit]

oh, i wish i knew english in a perfect way! you just don't get what i write. USA always tried their best to spoil Russian's reputation.

Russia has done a plenty fine job of ruining its own reputation. Trust us, you don't need our help in that area.

[Kathianne]

Russia has done a plenty fine job of ruining its own reputation. Trust us, you don't need our help in that area.

Indeed.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/08/08/AR2008080802654_pf.html



A Threat Explodes In Georgia

By Anne Applebaum
Saturday, August 9, 2008; A15

For the best possible illustration of why Islamic terrorism may one day be considered the least of our problems, look no farther than the BBC's split-screen coverage of yesterday's Olympic opening ceremonies. On one side, fireworks sparkled, and thousands of exotically dressed Chinese dancers bent their bodies into the shape of doves, the cosmos and more. On the other side, gray Russian tanks were shown rolling into South Ossetia, a rebel province of Georgia. The effect was striking: Two of the world's rising powers were strutting their stuff.

The difference, of course, is that one event has been rehearsed for years, while the other, if not a total surprise, was not actually scheduled to take place this week. That, too, is significant: The Chinese challenge to Western power has been a long time coming, and it is in a certain sense predictable. As a rule, the Chinese do not make sudden moves and do not try to provoke crises.

Russia, by contrast, is an unpredictable power, which makes responding to Moscow more difficult. In fact, Russian politics have become so utterly opaque that it is not easy to say why this particular "frozen" conflict has escalated right now. Russian sources said yesterday that Georgia had launched an invasion of South Ossetia, aiming to pacify the breakaway region. Georgia, meanwhile, said that its troops entered the South Ossetian "capital" in response to escalating attacks, which have been intensifying for a week -- and have been taking place for years, really -- as well as the Russian aerial bombardment of Georgian territory.

But there are other players involved -- paramilitaries, provocateurs, even (Russian) peacekeepers, some of whom have apparently been killed -- and a complicated chain of events with myriad possible interpretations. Previous tensions, both in South Ossetia and Abkhazia, the other piece of Georgia that has declared sovereignty, have somehow been resolved without a war. Someone, clearly, wanted this one to go further.

Both sides have deeper motives for fighting. The Russians want to prevent Georgia from joining NATO, as Georgia, a Western-oriented democracy -- George Bush has called the country a " beacon of liberty" -- has long wanted to do. In this, they will almost certainly succeed: No Western power has any interest in a military ally that is involved in a major military conflict with Russia.

The Georgian leadership, by contrast, had come to believe that the constant pressure of Russian aggression, coupled with the West's failure to accept Georgia into NATO, compelled them to demonstrate "self-reliance." President Mikheil Saakashvili has indeed been buying weapons in preparation for this moment. Those who know him say he believed a military conflict was inevitable but could be won if conducted cleverly. As of last night, with Russian soldiers fighting in South Ossetia -- only a few dozen miles from Tbilisi, the Georgian capital -- it seemed as though he might have miscalculated, badly. Russia has not sent 150 tanks across that border in order to lose.

...

[Abbey Marie]

So, how's Pooty- Poot these days? :coffee:

[Kathianne]

Return of the USSR, this IS what it's all about, yeah lots of links:


http://pajamasmedia.com/rogerkimball/2008/08/09/the-moral-influence-which-may-be-a-powerful-force-with-civilized-countries-is-unlikely-to-to-make-an-impression/



...But I suspect that in the years to come what most historians–and perhaps the rest of us, too–will think of when we hear the date August 8, 2008 is not China, and certainly not old what’s-his-name with the hair, the mistress, and pathetic claims of being “99 percent honest“. What we’ll think of is the country of Georgia and we’ll realize that August 8 was the date when Russia began reassembling the former Soviet empire in earnest.

When Russian tanks and troops poured into the separatist Georgian province of South Ossetia yesterday, it was not, as Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said, part of a “peacekeeping mission.” It was part of an imperialist mission whose undeclared goal is to reabsorb the whole of Georgia–West-leaning Georgia with its critical oil pipeline supplying energy to an increasingly thirsty Europe–into mother Russia.

Indeed, that pipeline is the unacknowledged key to the drama–unacknowledged, anyway, by the belligerents. As an AP story notes, the “U.S.-backed oil pipeline runs through Georgia, allowing the West to reduce its reliance on Middle Eastern oil while bypassing Russia and Iran.” A good thing for the West; but is such autonomy something Russia (or, for that matter, Iran) wants to encourage? Indeed, as I write, Reuters has issued an unconfirmed report that earlier today Russia attacked not only targets in South Ossetia but also targeted “the major Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) oil pipeline.”

The whole drama as the eerie sense of history repeating itself. The London Times today carries an article about “The Revolt in Georgia”–not the one unfolding before our eyes, but the revolt against Soviet occupation in September 1924....

[Abbey Marie]

Guess what??!!!!! Whole russia is sooooo mad at u, stupid americans!!! omg!! ur sooo stupid, ur president tells u lies and u believe it!!! guess what??? the real thing is that: USA dectated Georgia to start war in South Osetia!!! It is profitable for USA to start war also with Russia, to start this conflict!! Georgia wants to get in NATO, that's why they listen to usa. president of georgia tells that russia started, so the whole world hate us, that's what america wants!!! btw, Russia demands georgia to stop all war actions, and also we send there ppl to help, medical help and all stuff!!!

http://www.cbc.ca/searchengine/blog/tin_foil_hat.gif

[actsnoblemartin]

Russia has done a plenty fine job of ruining its own reputation. Trust us, you don't need our help in that area.

:laugh2:

[actsnoblemartin]

http://www.cbc.ca/searchengine/blog/tin_foil_hat.gif

warning: the kool aid has been spiked with stupid :laugh2:

[actsnoblemartin]

So, how's Pooty- Poot these days? :coffee:

poooty poot

:laugh2:

:coffee:

[Kathianne]

Some understand from the get go, some not until the MSM tells them why it's not important:

http://www.blackfive.net/main/2008/08/while-the-eu-an.html


While the EU and NATO Fiddle....
Posted By COB6

The crisis in Georgia is growing and the west seems collectively paralyzed.

Just today the United Nations met for the third time in as many days and have not surprisingly accomplished nothing.

The London Times today reminds us of the last time that Russia invaded Georgia in 1921. The president of Georgia appealed to the newly formed League of Nations. The League of Nations responded:

"it is realized that the League is incapable of rendering material aid and the moral influence which may be a powerful force with civilized countries is unlikely to make an impression upon Soviet Russia."

The Germans and French who blocked Georgia's attempts to join NATO in April will now be forced to find a diplomatic solution; and historically a European "compromise" will be little more than appeasement.

The question "Are we willing to start a war over a small piece of land with few people who don't want to be there anyway?" has already started.

In that case it might be worth while for the GEORGIAN government to consider whether they should exclude altogether the project, which has found favour in some quarters, of making GEORGIA a more homogeneous State by the secession of that fringe of alien populations who are contiguous with the nation with which they are united by race. In any case the wishes of the population concerned would seem to be a decisively important element in any solution that can hope to be regarded as permanent, and the advantages of becoming a homogeneous State might conceivably outweigh the obvious disadvantages of losing the SOUTH OSSETIA districts of the borderland.

[Source - The Times (London)]

Now go read that quote again. This time change GEORGIA to CZECHOSLOVAKIA and SOUTH OSSETIA to SEDETEN GERMAN.

Oh, and change the source as well: [Source: The Times (London), 7 September 1938]

I am not advocating launching an American offensive but it is of critical importance what Western Europe does. Doing nothing might mean a brokered peace on the horizon but it would ultimately meanthe death of Georgia and it would abdicate almost all energy decisions that impact the EU to the Kremlin.

If a re-constituted Soviet Union under control of an old school KGB leader is okay with you, then no worries.

If it does worry you, dust off the old REFORGER maps; we may need them again.

[MtnBiker]

Guess what??!!!!! Whole russia is sooooo mad at u, stupid americans!!! omg!! ur sooo stupid, ur president tells u lies and u believe it!!! guess what??? the real thing is that: USA dectated Georgia to start war in South Osetia!!! It is profitable for USA to start war also with Russia, to start this conflict!! Georgia wants to get in NATO, that's why they listen to usa. president of georgia tells that russia started, so the whole world hate us, that's what america wants!!! btw, Russia demands georgia to stop all war actions, and also we send there ppl to help, medical help and all stuff!!!

Well there is one good thing, unlike the dog eating communists, at least you have internet access. Of course you had better be careful with that, you wouldn't want to end up like this guy.

http://i.a.cnn.net/cnn/2006/WORLD/europe/11/23/uk.spypoisoned/long.litvinenko.cnn.jpg

However with your sycophantic attitude that is unlikely.

[Said1]

Well there is one good thing, unlike the dog eating communists, at least you have internet access. Of course you had better be careful with that you wouldn't want to end up like this guy.

http://i.a.cnn.net/cnn/2006/WORLD/europe/11/23/uk.spypoisoned/long.litvinenko.cnn.jpg

He did disappear quite suddenly. :coffee:

[Kathianne]

Well there is one good thing, unlike the dog eating communists, at least you have internet access. Of course you had better be careful with that you wouldn't want to end up like this guy.

http://i.a.cnn.net/cnn/2006/WORLD/europe/11/23/uk.spypoisoned/long.litvinenko.cnn.jpg

He was one of the first victims, this was addressed earlier. Dan, I'm pretty upset that most of the what I consider politically concerned folk, seem to be ignoring this moment in time.

Then again, I'm a worrier.

[Kathianne]

He was one of the first victims, this was addressed earlier. Dan, I'm pretty upset that most of the what I consider politically concerned folk, seem to be ignoring this moment in time.

Then again, I'm a worrier.

In any case, seems the media is getting it:

http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/2008/08/flash-point-south-ossetia/


Flash Point: South Ossetia

Posted by SWJ Editors on August 10, 2008 5:00 PM

...

[Gaffer]

Great posts Kath, I can't rep you yet. Really good finds. Good to know there are people out there reporting on the war, even though our own media can't be bothered.

Serious business here that's going to have an impact for years to come, and how it gets handled is going to be very important. I see by our russian visitor, the mind set there hasn't changed since the cold war. They still suffer from paranoia.

And this was not a spir of the moment action on russia's part. If that was the case they wouldn't have rolled into the region with so many tanks and artillery. That takes a long time to position. They were set and ready to go in months ago.

[manu1959]

oh, i wish i knew english in a perfect way! you just don't get what i write. USA always tried their best to spoil Russian's reputation.

you all don't need any help.....

[Kathianne]

Sure they are winning at rowing in Olympics, but they would be the next target of an active bear:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/nathan-gardels/brzezinski-russias-invasi_b_118029.html

While I hate to agree with Zbigniew Brzezinski, in this case he's got it right:


BRZEZINSKI: RUSSIA'S INVASION OF GEORGIA IS REMINISCENT OF STALIN'S ATTACK ON FINLAND
stumble digg reddit del.ico.us news trust

Posted August 10, 2008 | 03:49 PM (EST)
News

On Sunday I talked with Zbigniew Brzezinski, the elder statesman who was national security
advisor to President Jimmy Carter, about the Russian invasion of Georgia. He long tangled with Soviet power. Now he takes on Putin:

Nathan Gardels: What is the world to make of Russia's invasion of Georgia?

Zbigniew Brzezinski: Fundamentally at stake is what kind of role Russia will play in the new international system. Unfortunately, Putin is putting Russia on a course that is ominously similar to Stalin's and Hitler's in the late 1930s. Swedish foreign minister Carl Bildt has correctly drawn an analogy between Putin's "justification" for dismembering Georgia -- because of the Russians in South Ossetia -- to Hitler's tactics vis a vis Czechoslovakia to "free" the Sudeten Deutsch.

Even more ominous is the analogy of what Putin is doing vis-a-vis Georgia to what Stalin did vis-a-vis Finland: subverting by use of force the sovereignty of a small democratic neighbor. In effect, morally and strategically, Georgia is the Finland of our day

The question the international community now confronts is how to respond to a Russia that engages in the blatant use of force with larger imperial designs in mind: to reintegrate the former Soviet space under the Kremlin's control and to cut Western access to the Caspian Sea and Central Asia by gaining control over the Baku/ Ceyhan pipeline that runs through Georgia.

In brief, the stakes are very significant. At stake is access to oil as that resource grows ever more scarce and expensive and how a major power conducts itself in our newly interdepedent world, conduct that should be based on accomodation and consensus, not on brute force.

If Georgia is subverted, not only will the West be cut off from the Caspian Sea and Central Asia. We can logically anticipate that Putin, if not resisted, will use the same tactics toward the Ukraine. Putin has already made public threats against Ukraine....