The Bare Knuckled Pundit
05-15-2008, 11:25 AM
Lying in bed Tuesday night watching John King on CNN analyzing the results of the West Virginia Democrat Presidential Primary, something hit me.
Drawing an elongated oval on the video display of the electoral map, King highlighted what he referred to as Hillary Clinton’s heartland. Stretching from south central Pennsylvania through the heart of West Virginia, taking in the southwestern parts of Virginia and North Carolina, crossing west into eastern Tennessee, turning north as it works its way through Kentucky, paralleling the Ohio River as it cuts through eastern Ohio and closing the loop in southwestern Pennsylvania, the oval is home to the blue collar, working class, rural white voters that have become the backbone of Hillary’s support.
A testament to image management and aggressive marketing, Hillary has cast herself as the modern political Rosie Riveter; a can-do populist ready to do the dirty work necessary to save America in her time of need. While John Mellencamp originally endorsed blue collar favorite son and 11th hour Obama endorser John Edwards and Bruce Springsteen recently sang Barack’s praises on his website, it is Clinton that has captured the hearts and minds of working class white voters.
Pointing to the center of the oval in West Virginia, King remarked that admittedly some of Hillary’s success in working class Appalachia was attributable to Bill having handily won the region twice in the 90’s. And that’s when it hit me, faithful readers.
The Bubba Factor
Go back with me, if you will, to 1960.
Northeastern playboy and Massachusetts’ Senator John F. Kennedy successfully defeated then Vice President Richard Nixon to become the thirty-fifth President of the United States. Felled by an assassin’s bullet in 1963, Kennedy was succeeded by Vice President Lyndon Johnson, a tough as nails, no-nonsense Texan. Defeating Republican Barry Goldwater in 1964, Johnson cast a geopolitical electoral juju on the Democrat Party that haunts it to this day.
Since Johnson’s 1964 victory, no Democrat candidate from outside the former Confederate states has won the presidency.
Moreover, being from the former Confederacy is not enough in and of itself; one must also be a good ole boy or as Jeff Foxworthy euphemistically refers to them, a Bubba. Go ask President Gore, if you don’t believe me.
Lyndon Johnson was a foul-mouthed, arm-twisting larger than life Texan. Jimmy Carter was a naïve Gomer Pyle-like peanut farmer from Georgia. Bill Clinton, easily the slickest of the lot, was Southern Comfort come to life; silky smooth going down, but a hell of a hangover the next morning. All were political Bubbas, with Clinton rising to the status of archetypical Bubba.
In contrast to the Three Bubbas, there are the five doomed Yankees and the revanchist faux Bubba; Hubert Humphreys, George McGovern, Walter Mondale, Mike Dukakis, John Kerry and Al Gore. All, save Gore, hail from north of the Mason-Dixon Line. Hence, the Yankee label. Gore, the proverbial fortunate son, was the product of a youth spent in the rarified social circles of Washington and was Southern in heritage only.
Sensing the geopolitical shift in electoral power, Nixon successfully used the “Southern strategy” in his ’68 and ’72 campaigns. Learning their lessons well, Republicans have since then cast their opponents as effete Northern elites, arrogant anti-American intellectuals out of touch with Joe Sixpack and condescending, know-it-all snobs. Their success speaks for itself; except when it comes to running against the Three Bubbas.
Great, Three Bubbas and six losers, you say. What does all this mean in 2008, you ask?
First, there is the fact that Barack Obama, who it increasingly appears, will be the Democrat presidential nominee, hails from Chicago, Illinois. While I love the Bears with all my football heart, they are in the North Division of the NFC. Read North, faithful readers. Compounding Barack’s northern-nis are his degrees from Columbia University and Harvard Law School. Columbia is in New York, where they make imitation salsa as the boys from Pace point out. Mike Dukakis received his law degree from Harvard. Need I say more?
Next, there is no possible way, no matter how many cans of Budweiser he uncomfortably sips, how many gutter balls he bowls or how many games of pool he shoots, Barack can convince anyone he’s a Bubba. Note to Obama campaign: Don’t even think about pulling a John Kerry and sending him out in the woods in blaze orange with a shotgun in hand. It can only be bad.
Before people start furiously throwing the race card on the table, let me assure you this is a cultural issue and has nothing to do with the good Senator’s race. This is a matter of cultural identity and personality characteristics. While Barack is clearly a mannerly and friendly enough soul, he is not a Bubba.
Finally, the political oracle points its gnarled and aged finger ominously towards last night’s results in West Virginia. If Pennsylvania wasn’t proof enough, West Virginia was a jolting slap in the face. Barack has a Bubba problem. Not only is Bubba cool to Barack, he gave him the cold shoulder and not so politely slammed the door in his face. A forty point shellacking speaks for itself.
Even the perpetually perfectly coifed John Edwards gets it. Addressing an audience on the campaign trail in Iowa last year, he stated, “I’ll just point out the obvious. In the last — can I do the math, 45, 50 years — what is it, the last two Democrats who actually got elected president? Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton. Both of them talk like I do.”
With Barack raking in 90+ percent of the black vote and John McCain diligently working to shore up the conservative base of the Republican Party, Bubba may well determine who the next President of the United States. While the Republicans learned this thirty years, it appears that the Democrats outside the Clinton family remain blissfully ignorant and geopolitically blind. Add all this up and there is the distinct possibility that the Democrats may yet again snatch defeat from the jaws of victory
Drawing an elongated oval on the video display of the electoral map, King highlighted what he referred to as Hillary Clinton’s heartland. Stretching from south central Pennsylvania through the heart of West Virginia, taking in the southwestern parts of Virginia and North Carolina, crossing west into eastern Tennessee, turning north as it works its way through Kentucky, paralleling the Ohio River as it cuts through eastern Ohio and closing the loop in southwestern Pennsylvania, the oval is home to the blue collar, working class, rural white voters that have become the backbone of Hillary’s support.
A testament to image management and aggressive marketing, Hillary has cast herself as the modern political Rosie Riveter; a can-do populist ready to do the dirty work necessary to save America in her time of need. While John Mellencamp originally endorsed blue collar favorite son and 11th hour Obama endorser John Edwards and Bruce Springsteen recently sang Barack’s praises on his website, it is Clinton that has captured the hearts and minds of working class white voters.
Pointing to the center of the oval in West Virginia, King remarked that admittedly some of Hillary’s success in working class Appalachia was attributable to Bill having handily won the region twice in the 90’s. And that’s when it hit me, faithful readers.
The Bubba Factor
Go back with me, if you will, to 1960.
Northeastern playboy and Massachusetts’ Senator John F. Kennedy successfully defeated then Vice President Richard Nixon to become the thirty-fifth President of the United States. Felled by an assassin’s bullet in 1963, Kennedy was succeeded by Vice President Lyndon Johnson, a tough as nails, no-nonsense Texan. Defeating Republican Barry Goldwater in 1964, Johnson cast a geopolitical electoral juju on the Democrat Party that haunts it to this day.
Since Johnson’s 1964 victory, no Democrat candidate from outside the former Confederate states has won the presidency.
Moreover, being from the former Confederacy is not enough in and of itself; one must also be a good ole boy or as Jeff Foxworthy euphemistically refers to them, a Bubba. Go ask President Gore, if you don’t believe me.
Lyndon Johnson was a foul-mouthed, arm-twisting larger than life Texan. Jimmy Carter was a naïve Gomer Pyle-like peanut farmer from Georgia. Bill Clinton, easily the slickest of the lot, was Southern Comfort come to life; silky smooth going down, but a hell of a hangover the next morning. All were political Bubbas, with Clinton rising to the status of archetypical Bubba.
In contrast to the Three Bubbas, there are the five doomed Yankees and the revanchist faux Bubba; Hubert Humphreys, George McGovern, Walter Mondale, Mike Dukakis, John Kerry and Al Gore. All, save Gore, hail from north of the Mason-Dixon Line. Hence, the Yankee label. Gore, the proverbial fortunate son, was the product of a youth spent in the rarified social circles of Washington and was Southern in heritage only.
Sensing the geopolitical shift in electoral power, Nixon successfully used the “Southern strategy” in his ’68 and ’72 campaigns. Learning their lessons well, Republicans have since then cast their opponents as effete Northern elites, arrogant anti-American intellectuals out of touch with Joe Sixpack and condescending, know-it-all snobs. Their success speaks for itself; except when it comes to running against the Three Bubbas.
Great, Three Bubbas and six losers, you say. What does all this mean in 2008, you ask?
First, there is the fact that Barack Obama, who it increasingly appears, will be the Democrat presidential nominee, hails from Chicago, Illinois. While I love the Bears with all my football heart, they are in the North Division of the NFC. Read North, faithful readers. Compounding Barack’s northern-nis are his degrees from Columbia University and Harvard Law School. Columbia is in New York, where they make imitation salsa as the boys from Pace point out. Mike Dukakis received his law degree from Harvard. Need I say more?
Next, there is no possible way, no matter how many cans of Budweiser he uncomfortably sips, how many gutter balls he bowls or how many games of pool he shoots, Barack can convince anyone he’s a Bubba. Note to Obama campaign: Don’t even think about pulling a John Kerry and sending him out in the woods in blaze orange with a shotgun in hand. It can only be bad.
Before people start furiously throwing the race card on the table, let me assure you this is a cultural issue and has nothing to do with the good Senator’s race. This is a matter of cultural identity and personality characteristics. While Barack is clearly a mannerly and friendly enough soul, he is not a Bubba.
Finally, the political oracle points its gnarled and aged finger ominously towards last night’s results in West Virginia. If Pennsylvania wasn’t proof enough, West Virginia was a jolting slap in the face. Barack has a Bubba problem. Not only is Bubba cool to Barack, he gave him the cold shoulder and not so politely slammed the door in his face. A forty point shellacking speaks for itself.
Even the perpetually perfectly coifed John Edwards gets it. Addressing an audience on the campaign trail in Iowa last year, he stated, “I’ll just point out the obvious. In the last — can I do the math, 45, 50 years — what is it, the last two Democrats who actually got elected president? Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton. Both of them talk like I do.”
With Barack raking in 90+ percent of the black vote and John McCain diligently working to shore up the conservative base of the Republican Party, Bubba may well determine who the next President of the United States. While the Republicans learned this thirty years, it appears that the Democrats outside the Clinton family remain blissfully ignorant and geopolitically blind. Add all this up and there is the distinct possibility that the Democrats may yet again snatch defeat from the jaws of victory