Obama slipping in polls?

[Abbey Marie]

I saw poll results on TV last night that showed Obama was 20 points behind Hillary in PA. Sorry, no linky.

:dance:

[red states rule]

I saw poll results on TV last night that showed Obama was 20 points behind Hillary in PA. Sorry, no linky.

:dance:

The new poll by American Research Group -- conducted Friday, Saturday and Sunday -- gave Clinton 57% and Obama 37% (based on interviews with 600 Democrats, the survey has an error margin of plus-or-minus 4 percentage points). The 20-point margin is all the more dramatic because, just the week before, an ARG poll found the pair in a flat-out tie in Pennsylvania, each with 45%.

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/washington/2008/04/new-poll-shows.html

[Abbey Marie]

The new poll by American Research Group -- conducted Friday, Saturday and Sunday -- gave Clinton 57% and Obama 37% (based on interviews with 600 Democrats, the survey has an error margin of plus-or-minus 4 percentage points). The 20-point margin is all the more dramatic because, just the week before, an ARG poll found the pair in a flat-out tie in Pennsylvania, each with 45%.

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/washington/2008/04/new-poll-shows.html

Thanks, RSR; that must have been the poll. It's ironic how Obamalamadingdong's own smooth talking hurt him even more than Rev. Wrong's insane rantings.

[red states rule]

Thanks, RSR; that must have been the poll. It's ironic how Obamalamadingdong's own smooth talking hurt him even more than Rev. Wrong's insane rantings.

You are welcome

Here is the poll itself

http://americanresearchgroup.com/

[retiredman]

Real Clear Politics - a source highly touted by none other than RSR, has Clinton's lead in PA at less than 8%.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/pa/pennsylvania_democratic_primary-240.html

many pundits I have heard have suggested that if she doesn't win PA by at least 20% and keep her NC loss under 10%, that she is toast.

[Abbey Marie]

Real Clear Politics - a source highly touted by none other than RSR, has Clinton's lead in PA at less than 8%.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/pa/pennsylvania_democratic_primary-240.html

many pundits I have heard have suggested that if she doesn't win PA by at least 20% and keep her NC loss under 10%, that she is toast.

Why are you so against Hillary? Are you sexist? femalephobic? :coffee:

[red states rule]

Real Clear Politics - a source highly touted by none other than RSR, has Clinton's lead in PA at less than 8%.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/pa/pennsylvania_democratic_primary-240.html

many pundits I have heard have suggested that if she doesn't win PA by at least 20% and keep her NC loss under 10%, that she is toast.

NOW you want to use the poll averages when it is convenient for you

This poll was taken while Barry was insulting rural voters

This is going all the way to Denver MFM.

[theHawk]

Go Hildabeast!!

[red states rule]

Go Hildabeast!!

She has my vote next week

Then I go to the courthouse and switch my registration back to Republican

Go Operation Chaos!!!!!

[retiredman]

Why are you so against Hillary? Are you sexist? femalephobic? :coffee:


I am not against Hillary. I happen to be FOR Obama. If Hillary wins the nomination, I will enthusiastically support her. no doubt. They are both excellent candidates and either one will make a fine president and sweep the stench of incompetence out of the white house.

[Abbey Marie]

She has my vote next week

Then I go to the courthouse and switch my registration back to Republican

Go Operation Chaos!!!!!

Since this has been allowed in other primaries already this year, affecting both parties, I see no problem with your switching.

For the future, however, I wish that this would not be allowed in any state. I think it demeans the whole process, and makes people even more cynical about the primary system.

[retiredman]

NOW you want to use the poll averages when it is convenient for you

This poll was taken while Barry was insulting rural voters

This is going all the way to Denver MFM.

how many times do you think you have to type the same opinion over and over and over again. If Hillary doesn't win PA by 20 pts, and hold her loss in NC to under 10 pts, I think the supers will roll over to Obama and she'll exit the race...but THAT is MY opinion. Time will tell which one of us is correct and whether or not it really matters come the general election when either of them has the distinct advantage of NOT being a republican and NOT being tied to eight years of executive incompetence.

[Abbey Marie]

I am not against Hillary. I happen to be FOR Obama. If Hillary wins the nomination, I will enthusiastically support her. no doubt. They are both excellent candidates and either one will make a fine president and sweep the stench of incompetence out of the white house.

And sweep in the stench of socialism and racism. Quite a trade off.

[retiredman]

And sweep in the stench of socialism and racism. Quite a trade off.


blah blah blah.

misusing the words socialism and racism to stir public sentiment is an old tactic. time will tell if it will work in november.

[red states rule]

Since this has been allowed in other primaries already this year, affecting both parties, I see no problem with your switching.

For the future, however, I wish that this would not be allowed in any state. I think it demeans the whole process, and makes people even more cynical about the primary system.

By all means, have the states change the law

BTW, Dems did to us in the MI primary. The Daily Kos called it "having fun"

Dems are upset because we are getting results, and they only have some success in one state

[Abbey Marie]

blah blah blah.

misusing the words socialism and racism to stir public sentiment is an old tactic. time will tell if it will work in november.

Oh, you mean like Obama and his endearing old Rev. misuse "racism" to stir public sentiment much of the time? True dat.

[red states rule]

how many times do you think you have to type the same opinion over and over and over again. If Hillary doesn't win PA by 20 pts, and hold her loss in NC to under 10 pts, I think the supers will roll over to Obama and she'll exit the race...but THAT is MY opinion. Time will tell which one of us is correct and whether or not it really matters come the general election when either of them has the distinct advantage of NOT being a republican and NOT being tied to eight years of executive incompetence.

It is not an opinion

Because our your stupid delegate system, neiother Barry or Hillary will have enough delegate to win

The Clintons do not give up

This is going all the way to Denver

[retiredman]

It is not an opinion

Because our your stupid delegate system, neiother Barry or Hillary will have enough delegate to win

The Clintons do not give up

This is going all the way to Denver

that is your opinion. it is certainly not fact.

[Hobbit]

that is your opinion. it is certainly not fact.

Actually, it is not an opinion, but a factual statement. It's not necessarily true, but it is definitely provable and will be proven true or false when the convention rolls around.

[red states rule]

that is your opinion. it is certainly not fact.

Show me ONE LINK where it shows Barry or Hillary will have enough delegates to win the nomination by the end of the Dem primaries on June 3rd

On to Denver MFM :laugh2:

[retiredman]

Actually, it is not an opinion, but a factual statement. It's not necessarily true, but it is definitely provable and will be proven true or false when the convention rolls around.

It is an opinion that may be proven to be true. What the Clintons DO or have DONE is not a factual inerrant statement of what they will do.

[retiredman]

Show me ONE LINK where it shows Barry or Hillary will have enough delegates to win the nomination by the end of the Dem primaries on June 3rd

On to Denver MFM :laugh2:

your prediction that Hillary will continue regardless of the outcomes in PA, NC and IN is merely that. I think she will exit the race prior to the convention.

[Abbey Marie]

It is an opinion that may be proven to be true. What the Clintons DO or have DONE is not a factual inerrant statement of what they will do.

Not fact, yet, but as they say, the best predictor of future behavior is past behavior...

[retiredman]

Not fact, yet, but as they say, the best predictor of future behavior is past behavior...

and if Hillary bows out before the convention, what will you then say about your predictor?

[Abbey Marie]

and if Hillary bows out before the convention, what will you then say about your predictor?

I will say it was because of rampant sexism among Obama supporters, of course. I've learned how to spin, and play the victim card from the moonbats on the net. :laugh2:

[red states rule]

I will say it was because of rampant sexism among Obama supporters, of course. I've learned how to spin, and play the victim card from the moonbats on the net. :laugh2:

Prof MFM gives classes on that subject, free of charge, right here on a daily basis

[Hobbit]

It is an opinion that may be proven to be true. What the Clintons DO or have DONE is not a factual inerrant statement of what they will do.

Incorrect. An opinion is something that is a) neither true nor false, or b) cannot be proven. A person's state of mind is an opinion, as we cannot step into that person's mind, thus it cannot be proven. The quality of music is an opinion, as it cannot be quantified and thus isn't objectively right or wrong. However, a prediction, while not currently provable, is a statement of fact that both can and will be proven. It has an objective, quantifiable truth, thus, its labeling as an opinion is factually incorrect.

[retiredman]

Incorrect. An opinion is something that is a) neither true nor false, or b) cannot be proven. A person's state of mind is an opinion, as we cannot step into that person's mind, thus it cannot be proven. The quality of music is an opinion, as it cannot be quantified and thus isn't objectively right or wrong. However, a prediction, while not currently provable, is a statement of fact that both can and will be proven. It has an objective, quantifiable truth, thus, its labeling as an opinion is factually incorrect.

saying that Hillary Clinton will fight to the convention is not a FACT.... anymore than a zygote is a toddler. I'm sorry.

[red states rule]

saying that Hillary Clinton will fight to the convention is not a FACT.... anymore than a zygote is a toddler. I'm sorry.

I know you are hoping the Clintons will do what is best for the Dem party, but the Clintons have never done anything except for what is best for the Clintons

Denver will be must see TV :lol:

[mundame]

... a prediction, while not currently provable, is a statement of fact that both can and will be proven. It has an objective, quantifiable truth, thus, its labeling as an opinion is factually incorrect.


I'd say it's just a statement: it cannot be a statement of fact because nothing in the future exists, by definition. That is, the word "will" is always a lie.

Still, you make an interesting point, I think, that a prediction can be falsified, and thus is better labeled a hypothesis than an opinion.

An opinion, then, would refer to the present, and is a word referring to a private reality that is not proposed as part of a common objective reality. My opinion is my reality; I am not saying it has to be yours, too.

[Abbey Marie]

I know you are hoping the Clintons will do what is best for the Dem party, but the Clintons have never done anything except for what is best for the Clintons
Denver will be must see TV :lol:

And that is why Hillary worries me less than Obama does. He is true believer in his scary socialist, weakened defense, racist philosophies. I think Hillary really just wants the power.

[Hobbit]

I'd say it's just a statement: it cannot be a statement of fact because nothing in the future exists, by definition. That is, the word "will" is always a lie.

Still, you make an interesting point, I think, that a prediction can be falsified, and thus is better labeled a hypothesis than an opinion.

An opinion, then, would refer to the present, and is a word referring to a private reality that is not proposed as part of a common objective reality. My opinion is my reality; I am not saying it has to be yours, too.

A good assessment, though by a textbook definition, a hypothesis is simply a more specific statement of fact. The difference between fact and opinion is not whether they have been proven but rather whether they MAY be proven, ceterus peribus. If Hillary remains in the race until the convention, then it will have been proven true. If Hillary does not remain in the race until the convention, then it will be false. If something drastic happens that the race is no longer in existence by the time of the convention, then it is false. If RSR then states that she WOULD have remained in the race had it not been called off, then THAT is an opinion.

You don't get to redefine words, MFM. The English language is what it is and you can't personalize it to validate your statements. Calling a horse a sandwich doesn't make every rancher in America wrong.

[retiredman]

A good assessment, though by a textbook definition, a hypothesis is simply a more specific statement of fact. The difference between fact and opinion is not whether they have been proven but rather whether they MAY be proven, ceterus peribus. If Hillary remains in the race until the convention, then it will have been proven true. If Hillary does not remain in the race until the convention, then it will be false. If something drastic happens that the race is no longer in existence by the time of the convention, then it is false. If RSR then states that she WOULD have remained in the race had it not been called off, then THAT is an opinion.

You don't get to redefine words, MFM. The English language is what it is and you can't personalize it to validate your statements. Calling a horse a sandwich doesn't make every rancher in America wrong.

saying that Hillary will fight on until the convention is not a fact. call it what ever else you would like, but it is not a fact.

[red states rule]

And that is why Hillary worries me less than Obama does. He is true believer in his scary socialist, weakened defense, racist philosophies. I think Hillary really just wants the power.

Hillary has said she wants to take the profits of oil companies and invest them the way she wants

Hillary wants to give all of us Hillarycare

She is as much of a socialist as Barry. Only she wants the power more then Barry does

[Hobbit]

saying that Hillary will fight on until the convention is not a fact. call it what ever else you would like, but it is not a fact.

It is a fact. It is just an unproven fact. Call it a conjecture or hypothesis if you want, but it's not an opinion. That she will fight on until the convention is objective and provable, thus making it a statement of fact.

[Abbey Marie]

Hillary has said she wants to take the profits of oil companies and invest them the way she wants

Hillary wants to give all of us Hillarycare

She is as much of a socialist as Barry. Only she wants the power more then Barry does

I think when the rubber meets the road, Hillary will bow to pressure on her most Socialist programs if it means re-election. Not so sure about Hussein.

[retiredman]

It is a fact. It is just an unproven fact. Call it a conjecture or hypothesis if you want, but it's not an opinion. That she will fight on until the convention is objective and provable, thus making it a statement of fact.

a conjecture is not a fact... but regardless, playing silly word games is not my cup of tea. I really come here to discuss politics and foreign policy, not grammar.

[red states rule]

I think when the rubber meets the road, Hillary will bow to pressure on her most Socialist programs if it means re-election. Not so sure about Hussein.

Hillary will do what Bill did when he said he would support a middle class tax cut

He lied

and so will she

[mundame]

The difference between fact and opinion is not whether they have been proven but rather whether they MAY be proven, ceterus peribus. If Hillary remains in the race until the convention, then it will have been proven true. If Hillary does not remain in the race until the convention, then it will be false. If something drastic happens that the race is no longer in existence by the time of the convention, then it is false. If RSR then states that she WOULD have remained in the race had it not been called off, then THAT is an opinion.


Very, very nice.

So if I say Bush is evil, that is an opinion, because evil is in the eye of the beholder (!) and cannot be proven in any definitive sense.

If I say Bush lied us into war, that is also an opinion no matter how good my arguments are and how profound my conviction: because the other side can also muster arguments and also have "proofs" that don't quite reach the level of fact.

A philosophical problem here is that much "fact" is also opinion: many millions in the world apparently do think Bush plotted and arranged for 9/11; and that America never placed men on the moon. So is bin Laden's causing 9/11 a fact? Is Neal Armstrong's personal history a fact? Not if facts depend on what everyone agrees with, which is essentially nothing except the law of gravity, as far as I can tell.

[red states rule]

Very, very nice.

So if I say Bush is evil, that is an opinion, because evil is in the eye of the beholder (!) and cannot be proven in any definitive sense.

If I say Bush lied us into war, that is also an opinion no matter how good my arguments are and how profound my conviction: because the other side can also muster arguments and also have "proofs" that don't quite reach the level of fact.

A philosophical problem here is that much "fact" is also opinion: many millions in the world apparently do think Bush plotted and arranged for 9/11; and that America never placed men on the moon. So is bin Laden's causing 9/11 a fact? Is Neal Armstrong's personal history a fact? Not if facts depend on what everyone agrees with, which is essentially nothing except the law of gravity, as far as I can tell.


If Pres Bush lied about WMD's and Iraq - so do Democrats

That is a fact

[mundame]

If Pres Bush lied about WMD's and Iraq - so do Democrats

That is a fact


Sounds like an opinion to me............

With respect. http://deephousepage.com/smilies/whistle.gif

[Hobbit]

Very, very nice.

So if I say Bush is evil, that is an opinion, because evil is in the eye of the beholder (!) and cannot be proven in any definitive sense.

If I say Bush lied us into war, that is also an opinion no matter how good my arguments are and how profound my conviction: because the other side can also muster arguments and also have "proofs" that don't quite reach the level of fact.

A philosophical problem here is that much "fact" is also opinion: many millions in the world apparently do think Bush plotted and arranged for 9/11; and that America never placed men on the moon. So is bin Laden's causing 9/11 a fact? Is Neal Armstrong's personal history a fact? Not if facts depend on what everyone agrees with, which is essentially nothing except the law of gravity, as far as I can tell.

Actually, other than the obvious first one, those are all statements of fact. That Bush lied us into war is a false statement of fact. According to all available evidence, the things Bush said to the American people were true to the best of his knowledge. The only time it crosses into opinion is when you question whether he believed those things when he said them.

As for the rest, bin Laden causing 9/11 and Neal Armstrong landing on the moon have been objectively proven. The fact that a few people don't believe it is both a true fact and irrelevant as to the factual status of those events. Whether they are insane, in denial, attention whores, stupid, easily lead, or a combination of those is a matter of opinion.

[midcan5]

My home state can be very conservative and both Nutter and Rendell are Hillary fans. I wrote Rendell a few minutes ago on his bashing of Obama comments on the poor and bitterness. I think those comments valid for some as often it is easy to blame some foe rather than look for the real causes of job loss or poor wages.



"For we have a choice in this country. We can accept a politics that breeds division, and conflict, and cynicism. We can tackle race only as spectacle – as we did in the OJ trial – or in the wake of tragedy, as we did in the aftermath of Katrina - or as fodder for the nightly news. We can play Reverend Wright’s sermons on every channel, every day and talk about them from now until the election, and make the only question in this campaign whether or not the American people think that I somehow believe or sympathize with his most offensive words. We can pounce on some gaffe by a Hillary supporter as evidence that she’s playing the race card, or we can speculate on whether white men will all flock to John McCain in the general election regardless of his policies.

We can do that.

But if we do, I can tell you that in the next election, we’ll be talking about some other distraction. And then another one. And then another one. And nothing will change." Barack Obama

[red states rule]

Sounds like an opinion to me............

With respect. http://deephousepage.com/smilies/whistle.gif

Not at all

Here are a few quotes from Dems

“This December will mark three years since United Nations inspectors last visited Iraq. There is no doubt that since that time, Saddam Hussein has reinvigorated his weapons programs. Reports indicate that biological, chemical and nuclear programs continue apace and may be back to pre-Gulf War status. In addition, Saddam continues to refine delivery systems and is doubtless using the cover of a licit missile program to develop longer- range missiles that will threaten the United States and our allies.”—From a December 6, 2001 letter signed by Bob Graham, Joe Lieberman, Harold Ford, & Tom Lantos among others

“Whereas Iraq has consistently breached its cease-fire agreement between Iraq and the United States, entered into on March 3, 1991, by failing to dismantle its weapons of mass destruction program, and refusing to permit monitoring and verification by United Nations inspections; Whereas Iraq has developed weapons of mass destruction, including chemical and biological capabilities, and has made positive progress toward developing nuclear weapons capabilities”—From a joint resolution submitted by Tom Harkin and Arlen Specter on July 18, 2002

“Saddam’s goal … is to achieve the lifting of U.N. sanctions while retaining and enhancing Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction programs. We cannot, we must not and we will not let him succeed.”—Madeline Albright, 1998

“(Saddam) will rebuild his arsenal of weapons of mass destruction and some day, some way, I am certain he will use that arsenal again, as he has 10 times since 1983”—National Security Adviser Sandy Berger, Feb 18, 1998

“Iraq made commitments after the Gulf War to completely dismantle all weapons of mass destruction, and unfortunately, Iraq has not lived up to its agreement.”—Barbara Boxer, November 8, 2002

http://johnwlillpop.wordpress.com/2006/12/08/if-bush-lied-about-wmd-so-did-these-democrats/

[mundame]

Not at all

Here are a few quotes from Dems


A great deal of nonsense was talked in the days when the war was possible and Dems and everyone thought it would be an easy, quick win. So they wanted to get in on the credit.

And boy, are they sorry now. http://pages.prodigy.net/indianahawkeye/newpage08/4.gif

[red states rule]

A great deal of nonsense was talked in the days when the war was possible and Dems and everyone thought it would be an easy, quick win. So they wanted to get in on the credit.

And boy, are they sorry now. http://pages.prodigy.net/indianahawkeye/newpage08/4.gif

Bottom line is, if you say Pres Bush lied - so did all the Dems

We are winning in Iraq, despite the best efforts of Dems to lose it

[retiredman]

Bottom line is, if you say Pres Bush lied - so did all the Dems

We are winning in Iraq, despite the best efforts of Dems to lose it

bottom line: Bush took us to war... America realizes it was a bad decision. time to take the keys away from the GOP.

[red states rule]

bottom line: Bush took us to war... America realizes it was a bad decision. time to take the keys away from the GOP.

and many Dems voted for the war when it was politically convenient

The lie Dems have spread Pres Bush lied has been proven to yet another liberal lie

Yes MFM, the libs want the car keys so they can surrender to the terrorists. We know what you stand for