The 'Recession' Is A Media Myth

[red states rule]

It seems the economic facts do not support the liberal meida screaming how the US economy is in a recession

The liberal media are clearly in the tank for the Dems and are doing their part to help the Dems win in November



The 'Recession' Is a Media Myth
Tuesday, April 01, 2008

By John R. Lott, Jr.

During the 2000 election, with Bill Clinton as president, the economy was viewed through rose-colored glasses. According to polls, voters didn’t realize that the country was in a recession. Although the economy started shrinking in July 2000, most Americans through the entire year thought that the economy was fine.

But over the last half-year, the media and politicians have said we were in a recession even while the economy was still growing.

Gas prices are going up. The economy is slowing. Talk of recession is seemingly everywhere. While the majority of people rate their personal finances positively, consumer confidence in the economy has plunged to a 16-year low, well below what it was during the last year of the Clinton administration when we were in a recession.

A Nexis search on news stories during the three-month period from July 2000 through September 2000 using the keywords “economy recession US” produces 1,388. By contrast, the same search over just the last month finds 3,166. Or, even more telling, take the three months from July through September last year, when the GDP was growing at a phenomenal 4.9 percent. The same type of Google search shows 2,475 news stories.

Over 78 percent more negative news stories discussed a recession when the economy under a Republican was soaring than occurred under a Democrat when the economy was shrinking.

A little perspective on the economy would be helpful. The average unemployment rate during President Clinton was 5.2 percent. The average under President George W. Bush is just slightly below 5.2. The current unemployment rate is4.8 percent, almost half a percentage point lower than these averages.

The average inflation rate under Clinton was 2.6 percent, under Bush it is 2.7 percent. Indeed, one has to go back to the Kennedy administration to find a lower average rate. True the inflation rate over the last year has gone up to 4 percent, but that is still lower than the average inflation rate under all the presidents from Nixon through Bush’s father


for the complete article

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,343671,00.html

[JohnDoe]

whoever wrote the article is clueless on this.... imo.

he gives bush's average inflation rate for the last 7 years as the reason why we are not in a recession????????? geez louise!

[red states rule]

whoever wrote the article is clueless on this.... imo.

he gives bush's average inflation rate for the last 7 years as the reason why we are not in a recession????????? geez louise!

JD, John Lott is the author of Freedomnomics and a senior research scientist at the University of Maryland.

Fo you know what the definition of a recession is?

[5stringJeff]

Since GDP numbers are always 1-2 quarters in arrears, it's impossible to know whether we are currently in a recession. However, with prices on staples rising, growth slowing, and home values plummenting, I think it's safe to say that the economy has seen better days. I'd say we are likely in the beginnings of a recession.

[red states rule]

Since GDP numbers are always 1-2 quarters in arrears, it's impossible to know whether we are currently in a recession. However, with prices on staples rising, growth slowing, and home values plummenting, I think it's safe to say that the economy has seen better days. I'd say we are likely in the beginnings of a recession.

The economy has issues

I believe we have it, or near the bottom

Things will slowly start improving. The sky is not falling as the liberal media would have you believe

[5stringJeff]

The economy has issues

I believe we have it, or near the bottom

Things will slowly start improving. The sky is not falling as the liberal media would have you believe

When the Fed works to strengthen the dollar, then I'll share your optimism.

[red states rule]

When the Fed works to strengthen the dollar, then I'll share your optimism.

It will come back. The US economy has overcome bigger problems, and it will overcome the current issues

[Noir]

The economy has issues

I believe we have it, or near the bottom

Things will slowly start improving. The sky is not falling as the liberal media would have you believe

I think not, sure this one expert has given his 2 pence but i have seen countless others who have given differing views, also the cut in interest rates in the US will slow the onset of a recession but can not stop it. Also i note that this comes from fox news, would they be bias towards Bush? (serious question, just the way the artical is written seems pro Bush) I would agree that the sky is not falling and we won't all be crushed under a huge recession, but i believe a small one is on the way, you have to have the downs to have the ups.

[red states rule]

I think not, sure this one expert has given his 2 pence but i have seen countless others who have given differing views, also the cut in interest rates in the US will slow the onset of a recession but can not stop it. Also i note that this comes from fox news, would they be bias towards Bush? (serious question, just the way the artical is written seems pro Bush) I would agree that the sky is not falling and we won't all be crushed under a huge recession, but i believe a small one is on the way, you have to have the downs to have the ups.

Dems did the same thing with Bill Clinton in 1992, and once again, the economic facts do not supprt their rants about a recession

Did you see the background of the writer? He is NOT on the Fox News payroll

[Noir]

So why did the americans cut their interest rates? surely if this is all a myth then only the public would be fooled into buying onto the myth, not the heads of banks.

[red states rule]

So why did the americans cut their interest rates? surely if this is all a myth then only the public would be fooled into buying onto the myth, not the heads of banks.

Lower interest rate wil aloow folks to either get their first mortgage, or refi their current one. it will help save alot of people from losing their homes

O work for the worlds largest mortgage servicer, and I know the phones were melting with reqiestd for refi's

It makes it cheaper for business to invest and expand

The Fed is doing what they have to do to stop the economy from slipping into a recession

[Noir]

Lower interest rate wil aloow folks to either get their first mortgage, or refi their current one. it will help save alot of people from losing their homes

O work for the worlds largest mortgage servicer, and I know the phones were melting with reqiestd for refi's

It makes it cheaper for business to invest and expand

The Fed is doing what they have to do to stop the economy from slipping into a recession

Yes but generating more money weakens the value of the dollar, which has been slipping downwards for quite a while now, my understanding of economics is very basic so maybe i am missing the grand master plan, but surly it is better that people are finding it harder to buy their first homes but when they do their money is strong a safe.

[red states rule]

Yes but generating more money weakens the value of the dollar, which has been slipping downwards for quite a while now, my understanding of economics is very basic so maybe i am missing the grand master plan, but surly it is better that people are finding it harder to buy their first homes but when they do their money is strong a safe.

The dollar is slowly starting to come back.

Libs hear think hugher taxes on workers and cirporations will solve everything

Mortgage apps are up, and in a few months you will see homes sales start to increase

[Noir]

The dollar is slowly starting to come back.
If the dollar is starting to come back why cut interest rates? if nothing else it will reduce confidence in a comeback.



Mortgage apps are up, and in a few months you will see homes sales start to increase

Hope the same happens overhere, tryin to sell a house is impossible at the mo.

[red states rule]

If the dollar is starting to come back why cut interest rates? if nothing else it will reduce confidence in a comeback.




Hope the same happens overhere, tryin to sell a house is impossible at the mo.

I said lower interest rates will increase econpmic activity, and prevent the economy from slipping further

Lower rates means more investment and more risk taking. People can afford a home, and they can either buy or rifi their current home

[5stringJeff]

Unfortunately, lower interest rates also mean a weaker dollar and inflationary pressures, which, IMO, pose more of a threat than recession.

[actsnoblemartin]

It is in the democrats best interest to have a weak economy/recession, just look what happened in 92.

Its a conflict of interest if you ask me


Unfortunately, lower interest rates also mean a weaker dollar and inflationary pressures, which, IMO, pose more of a threat than recession.

[red states rule]

It is in the democrats best interest to have a weak economy/recession, just look what happened in 92.

Its a conflict of interest if you ask me

Of course they do. Bad news for America is good news for the left

[red states rule]

Once in awhile, a rational voice comes from the liberal media. The doom and gloom is overblown


April 03, 2008
Undue Haste on the Economy
By Steve Chapman

Democracy does not cultivate a taste for deferred gratification: Politicians eyeing the next election want to give people what they want sooner rather than later. And in a time of economic turmoil, the impulse to do something immediately is even stronger. But the haste is misplaced. In the current climate of panic, policymakers need to learn patience, and they need to learn it right now.

A couple of alleged crises are getting all the attention at the moment. The first is the risk of a recession. The second, not unrelated, is the mortgage meltdown and the credit crunch it has helped to bring about. Just about everyone in Washington agrees that swift action is needed on both.

The scenario brings to mind what the late Ohio State football coach Woody Hayes said about throwing the football: Three things can happen, and two of them are bad. Efforts to micromanage the macroeconomy may be useless, or they may be destructive. In either case, they can impede a painful process that is needed to correct mistakes like the housing bubble.

For all the alarms about a repeat of the Great Depression, it's not a sure thing we'll even have a recession, much less a serious one. A recession is technically defined as two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth -- meaning total output actually declines. A recent Wall Street Journal survey of 51 economists, however, found that, on average, they expect not shrinkage but very slow growth in the first and second quarters.

One economist interviewed by the Journal suggested that "there might not be even one negative quarter in this recession" -- which is the equivalent of a damp drought. Herbert Hoover should have had such problems.

for the complete article

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/04/undue_haste_on_the_economy.html

[LiberalNation]

Jobless claims jump to highest since 2005

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/usa_economy_jobless_dc;_ylt=Ajhj31JC7XX91ptfCudy4Q 4DW7oF

[manu1959]

Jobless claims jump to highest since 2005

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/usa_economy_jobless_dc;_ylt=Ajhj31JC7XX91ptfCudy4Q 4DW7oF

so does that mean we were in a recession in 2005.....what was the jobless claims rate in 2000

[gabosaurus]

If it is a "media myth," why are so many economic leaders saying the same thing?
You should try talking to some of them. Many are life-long diehard GOP supporters who are turning on the current administration.

http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2008/03/wells-fargo-us-now-in-recession-beyond.html

http://www.mitechnews.com/articles.asp?id=8420

http://biz.yahoo.com/cnnm/080317/031708_cnn_recession_poll.html

http://video.on.nytimes.com/index.jsp?fr_story=b4cabd36e5518ec6df5925bc1162593 d8fc6bf25&rf=rss

http://www.midasoracle.net/2008/03/13/the-us-economy-is-now-in-recession/

[manu1959]

If it is a "media myth," why are so many economic leaders saying the same thing?
You should try talking to some of them. Many are life-long diehard GOP supporters who are turning on the current administration.

http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2008/03/wells-fargo-us-now-in-recession-beyond.html

http://www.mitechnews.com/articles.asp?id=8420

http://biz.yahoo.com/cnnm/080317/031708_cnn_recession_poll.html

http://video.on.nytimes.com/index.jsp?fr_story=b4cabd36e5518ec6df5925bc1162593 d8fc6bf25&rf=rss

http://www.midasoracle.net/2008/03/13/the-us-economy-is-now-in-recession/

what is the definition of a recession.....

[red states rule]

If it is a "media myth," why are so many economic leaders saying the same thing?
You should try talking to some of them. Many are life-long diehard GOP supporters who are turning on the current administration.

http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2008/03/wells-fargo-us-now-in-recession-beyond.html

http://www.mitechnews.com/articles.asp?id=8420

http://biz.yahoo.com/cnnm/080317/031708_cnn_recession_poll.html

http://video.on.nytimes.com/index.jsp?fr_story=b4cabd36e5518ec6df5925bc1162593 d8fc6bf25&rf=rss

http://www.midasoracle.net/2008/03/13/the-us-economy-is-now-in-recession/



Those same "experts" have been warning of a recession for 4 years now

Time for the liberal media to het some new "experts"

[diuretic]

http://tinyurl.com/2nq426

There you go, in Murdoch's national newspaper in Australia. Murdoch, of course, is a real leftie.

[red states rule]

http://tinyurl.com/2nq426

There you go, in Murdoch's national newspaper in Australia. Murdoch, of course, is a real leftie.

again, I have seen these economic experts saying the US is heading for a recession for years

They have said the annual budget deficit would explode - it is down by more then 50%

Whenever there is good economic news, the experts are surprised, or the news was unexpected

Time to get some new experts who know what the hell theyare talking about

[mundame]

again, I have seen these economic experts saying the US is heading for a recession for years

Yes, they've predicted nine out of the last four recessions, isn't that the saying? http://wade.hu/smiley/kategoriak/%E1llatok/animal-smiley-016.gif



They have said the annual budget deficit would explode - it is down by more then 50%

Good point. It's so hard to predict the future, since it hasn't happened yet.


Whenever there is good economic news, the experts are surprised, or the news was unexpected

..................Well, in a bear market. In a bull market, it's the opposite. Right now we're in a bear market, and do we ever belong to be in one, with all this financial danger going on.



Time to get some new experts who know what the hell theyare talking about

The really interesting thing to me is that there don't seem to be any. Well, it makes sense --- if anyone really understood the credit crunch, the subprime mortgage calamity, etc., they'd have stopped it.

[diuretic]

again, I have seen these economic experts saying the US is heading for a recession for years

They have said the annual budget deficit would explode - it is down by more then 50%

Whenever there is good economic news, the experts are surprised, or the news was unexpected

Time to get some new experts who know what the hell theyare talking about

Just pointing out that it's not the so-called "liberal" media that's making comment, that's all. Even Bernancke has admitted there's a possibility of recession, perhaps he should be sacked too?

[diuretic]

.....

The really interesting thing to me is that there don't seem to be any. Well, it makes sense --- if anyone really understood the credit crunch, the subprime mortgage calamity, etc., they'd have stopped it.

It's not a question of "understanding it". The experts didn't know it was happening. And one of the problems with an economy (and the stock market isn't "the economy") is that there's such a lag time. What's happening today won't be seen until weeks hence. Now that the sub-prime mess has hit, Bernancke has attempted to save the US economy by making money cheap to get, by cutting interest rates. So he's reacting to something that happened quite some time ago. I just hope it works.

[mundame]

I hope it works too. It may, but jeepers, these scary runs on "banks."

I think they should have seen some things --- a 1 to 33 leverage rate? What? When I studied the Great Depression the books were all shocked at the 1 to 10 leverage going on in 1929!

The falling dollar. I sort of understand the point of that, but the administration thinks it has a collar and chain on that dragon, and I just hope it's strong enough.

In the end, if bank runs from the credit crunches don't get us, I'm worried the rise in oil prices will get us (which is partly a function of the falling dollar and partly a function of the everlasting war, among other things outside our control, such as China and bad guys in oil-producing areas), catching the economy on fire and inflation destroying our retirement savings like happened in Germany long ago.

[red states rule]

Just pointing out that it's not the so-called "liberal" media that's making comment, that's all. Even Bernancke has admitted there's a possibility of recession, perhaps he should be sacked too?

Again, for years I have heard the pending doom and gloom storylines

The econiomy is in a cycle. We are not headed for a crash, or a depression (yes the liberal media has used the word depression)

Tax cuts for workers and corporations would do wonders to spark the economy. Buit Dems want to do the opposite and pass billions in new taxes

How will that help the economy?

[diuretic]

I hope it works too. It may, but jeepers, these scary runs on "banks."

I think they should have seen some things --- a 1 to 33 leverage rate? What? When I studied the Great Depression the books were all shocked at the 1 to 10 leverage going on in 1929!

The falling dollar. I sort of understand the point of that, but the administration thinks it has a collar and chain on that dragon, and I just hope it's strong enough.

In the end, if bank runs from the credit crunches don't get us, I'm worried the rise in oil prices will get us (which is partly a function of the falling dollar and partly a function of the everlasting war, among other things outside our control, such as China and bad guys in oil-producing areas), catching the economy on fire and inflation destroying our retirement savings like happened in Germany long ago.

But on the bright side, a weaker greenback means your exports will be cheaper and will pick up, whereas the Europeans are finding their strong Euro is giving them export grief.

[diuretic]

Again, for years I have heard the pending doom and gloom storylines

The econiomy is in a cycle. We are not headed for a crash, or a depression (yes the liberal media has used the word depression)

Tax cuts for workers and corporations would do wonders to spark the economy. Buit Dems want to do the opposite and pass billions in new taxes

How will that help the economy?

I'm not well versed in economics, but ignorance never stopped me from commenting :laugh2:

Tax cuts don't work because people save them when what's intended is that they get out and spend. So, I can only presume the Democrats want more government activity in the economy and need the loot to do so.

[avatar4321]

I'm not well versed in economics, but ignorance never stopped me from commenting :laugh2:

Tax cuts don't work because people save them when what's intended is that they get out and spend. So, I can only presume the Democrats want more government activity in the economy and need the loot to do so.

saving money doesnt necessarily hurt the economy unless its saved under the pillow.

Saving it in investments or even in a bank account cant stimulate the economy. it provides more money for corporations to spend or banks to lend out.

[diuretic]

saving money doesnt necessarily hurt the economy unless its saved under the pillow.

Saving it in investments or even in a bank account cant stimulate the economy. it provides more money for corporations to spend or banks to lend out.

But if no-one's spending why would the banks lend?

[avatar4321]

But if no-one's spending why would the banks lend?

because they have money to lend and hence more money lower interest rate.

[5stringJeff]

But if no-one's spending why would the banks lend?

The banks have to keep 10% of their loans in cash reserves. Or, put another way, a bank can loan out 10 times the amount of cash they have. So if I deposit my $2,100 tax rebate in the bank, it can loan out $21,000 more. This is important because it allows banks to loan to businesses, so they can invest in long-term projects.

[red states rule]

I'm not well versed in economics, but ignorance never stopped me from commenting :laugh2:

Tax cuts don't work because people save them when what's intended is that they get out and spend. So, I can only presume the Democrats want more government activity in the economy and need the loot to do so.

History proves you wrong

Under Ronald Reagan we had the largest peace time expanison of our economy in history. Revenues to the governemnt doubled in his 8 years

Under JFK the economy grew and re3vemnues to the governemnt increased

Once again, tax cuts have proved to work, Under Pres Bush revenues have soared to all time record highs

When you allow people to keep more of the money they earn (and companies to keep more of their profits) they will always find their way back into the economy