anyone tell me why oil is 104 a drum...

[manu1959]

simple answer.....

[hjmick]

Speculators driving up the price.

[jimnyc]

Because Bush/Cheney are evil and greedy dictators. And be careful, they'll eat your children too!

[The Reverend]

Trading, investors are pouring their money in safe commodities like gold and oil.

[manu1959]

Trading, investors are pouring their money in safe commodities like gold and oil.

the dollar is worthless though.....if it recovers the investment will be lost....

[The Reverend]

the dollar is worthless though.....if it recovers the investment will be lost....

Not really, when you invest in a safe commodity your money grows as it grows.

[manu1959]

Not really, when you invest in a safe commodity your money grows as it grows.

so if i buy gold at 1000 and ounce then the feds fix things and the dollar strenghtens and gold falls to 900 an ounce i made money....

[Mr. P]

Wild ass guess...how about the pipeline lost to a fire just a month or so back coupled with the seasonal formula change over? That really doesn't make sense though, when talking barrel price.
I would think price per barrel would drop due to a backup in supply caused by those two issues.

I don't have a clue. :lol:

[Yurt]

i think it is speculators (finite resource of light crude) and the weakening american dollar. my understanding is that oil is traded primiarily with US dollars, with a weaker dollar, it costs more US dollars to buy the oil.

[The Reverend]

so if i buy gold at 1000 and ounce then the feds fix things and the dollar strenghtens and gold falls to 900 an ounce i made money....

The deal about trading is to know when to trade back before the dollar goes back up gold goes down.

[Trigg]

Well they have to pay for that cool new man made island in Dubai somehow don't they.

[Dilloduck]

Dollar is dropping in value.

[manu1959]

The deal about trading is to know when to trade back before the dollar goes back up gold goes down.

so you agree .... gold is only expensive because the dollar is a third world curency at the moment....

[The Reverend]

so you agree .... gold is only expensive because the dollar is a third world curency at the moment....

Sure but that is why oil is so high. It is a "safe" commodity

[Classact]

simple answer.....High demand along with a weak dollar.

[PostmodernProphet]

the dollar is a third world curency at the moment


rofl.....


anyone tell me why oil is 104 a drum...simple answer.....

because noone was willing to bid $105.....you have more people wanting to buy oil than you have people wanting to sell it.....throw in speculators to add to the number of people wanting to buy oil and it makes the situation even worse.....throw in people who can reduce the amount they want to sell for political reasons and it gets even worse.....throw in people who want to blow up pipelines and oil wells to keep other people from selling their oil for political reasons and it gets even worse......throw in expanding economies that want to consume as much oil as the US has historically done and it gets even worse......

have all those things happen at once and BINGO!......

[Classact]

rofl.....



because noone was willing to bid $105.....you have more people wanting to buy oil than you have people wanting to sell it.....throw in speculators to add to the number of people wanting to buy oil and it makes the situation even worse.....throw in people who can reduce the amount they want to sell for political reasons and it gets even worse.....throw in people who want to blow up pipelines and oil wells to keep other people from selling their oil for political reasons and it gets even worse......throw in expanding economies that want to consume as much oil as the US has historically done and it gets even worse......

have all those things happen at once and BINGO!......If Saudi Arabia oil fields are attacked by terrorist successfully oil prices will triple or quadruple... one rocket ... chain reaction and the world will change...

President Bush has a super storage of oil in the Strategic Oil Preserve and is adding to it daily for just this reason... we have enough oil to last until we punch holes in Alaska and off each coasts.... environmentalists will be silent if Saudi Arabia oil fields are hit... everyone will be walking in days as the world wars for oil.

[avatar4321]

venezuela and Equador going to war with Colombia

[PostmodernProphet]

we have enough oil to last until we punch holes in Alaska and off each coasts....

there you are dreaming....if we decided to start drilling new oil fields today, it would be sometime in 2012 when the first oil hit the refineries.....our strategic reserve would last about a month if it was released into the domestic market......

[Pale Rider]

venezuela and Equador going to war with Colombia

I think this is the answer, along with the fact that the dollar is in the toilet.

And who's saber rattling saying we'll help Columbia? Who else? The war mongering America. Like we actually have enough troops or military resources to do anything anyway. We better be pulling a shit load of that out of Iraq if we think we're going to help Columbia.

Anywhere there's oil in the picture, bush is there. What a freagin' turd.

[manu1959]

speculators and fear.....

[Classact]

there you are dreaming....if we decided to start drilling new oil fields today, it would be sometime in 2012 when the first oil hit the refineries.....our strategic reserve would last about a month if it was released into the domestic market......We import about 10 million barrels a day at our current rate of consumption... if suddenly Saudi Arabia would go offline because of terrorism oil prices would cause consumption to drastically drop due to increased price at the pump. This would allow for a continued import from Mexico and Canada and perhaps Venezuela at the higher prices and use sparingly form the Strategic Oil Preserve... take a look at the chart and you will see that we could get by until we punched a hole and it produced some replacement... http://www.spr.doe.gov/dir/dir.html

[JohnDoe]

If Saudi Arabia oil fields are attacked by terrorist successfully oil prices will triple or quadruple... one rocket ... chain reaction and the world will change...

President Bush has a super storage of oil in the Strategic Oil Preserve and is adding to it daily for just this reason... we have enough oil to last until we punch holes in Alaska and off each coasts.... environmentalists will be silent if Saudi Arabia oil fields are hit... everyone will be walking in days as the world wars for oil.
Good Morning CA,

I thought the exact same thing as you...that we would have enough of the Strategice Petroleum Reserves to last for years at least by now!!!!

BUT, we don't!!!

Look at this! I know it is wikipedia, but the links provided by them confirms what they are saying!


Strategic Petroleum Reserve
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

This article refers to the United States Strategic Petroleum Reserve. For other countries see global strategic petroleum reserves
The Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) is an emergency petroleum store maintained by the United States Department of Energy. The US SPR is the largest emergency supply in the world with the current capacity to hold up to 727 million barrels (116 million m³) of crude oil. The second largest emergency supply of petroleum is Japan's with a 2003 reported capacity of 579 million barrels.

The current inventory is displayed on the SPR's website. As of February 25th, 2008, the current inventory was 698.6 million barrels. At current market prices ($100 a barrel) the SPR holds almost $70 billion worth of petroleum.

The United States started the petroleum reserve in 1975 after oil supplies were cut off during the 1973-74 oil embargo, to mitigate future temporary supply disruptions. According to the World Factbook[1], the United States imports a net 12 million barrels of oil a day (MMbd), so the SPR holds about a 57-day supply. However, the maximum total withdrawal capability from the SPR is only 4.4 MMbd.


So, it is not enough to hold us off until Alaska produces or some of the MEGA oil finds that have happened in the gulf the past 2 years to end up flowing?

---------------------------------------------------------
on the price of oil-thread topic:

There have been some HUGE, MEGA oil deposit finds within the last few years, in the Gulf of Mexico, in the Caspean Sea, Canada has developed their converting sludge/sandy oil into pure oil in a more efficient manner...etc, etc, etc.

You would think that these POSITIVE things would have brought the price of oil downwards, but they haven't.

For the most part I agree with what PMP has said and it is a combination of many things....

But MOST importantly, it is WAR and RUMORS of War that speculators USE to their advantage in raising the cost of oil...and also, equally important, the usage of oil goes up dramitically when warring is taking place.....Military vehicles and tanks and humv's all are gas guzzing hogs, rebuilding a community takes also of energy sources like gas generators to fuel it....etc, etc....then rogue terrorists blowing up pipelines and taking them "offline" basically from the world oil supply.....and then

You got the dollar dropping in value....and oil being sold in dollars, so it costs alot more dollars to buy the same amount of oil....period.

I heard on news yesterday that here in the usa, our oil prices have gone up 64% while the Eu's' oil prices have only gone up 45% during the exact same period....affecting us citizens here much more so than them and that is because the Euro is strong and the dollar weak....

So we in the USA are "feeling" the cost rise of oil and by products much moreso than our neighbors.

jd

[PostmodernProphet]

We import about 10 million barrels a day at our current rate of consumption... if suddenly Saudi Arabia would go offline because of terrorism oil prices would cause consumption to drastically drop due to increased price at the pump. This would allow for a continued import from Mexico and Canada and perhaps Venezuela at the higher prices and use sparingly form the Strategic Oil Preserve... take a look at the chart and you will see that we could get by until we punched a hole and it produced some replacement... http://www.spr.doe.gov/dir/dir.html

we have a 698 million barrel reserve.....we use 10 million barrels a day.....that means 69.8 days from now the reserve would be empty.....

do really think that if we decided to completely open up and go 'gung ho' on new production that the oil companies could produce 10 million extra barrels of domestic oil per day in just 70 days?.........more likely at the end of 70 days they MIGHT have decided where to drill and ordered new equipment......

[Classact]

Good Morning CA,

I thought the exact same thing as you...that we would have enough of the Strategice Petroleum Reserves to last for years at least by now!!!!

BUT, we don't!!!

Look at this! I know it is wikipedia, but the links provided by them confirms what they are saying!



So, it is not enough to hold us off until Alaska produces or some of the MEGA oil finds that have happened in the gulf the past 2 years to end up flowing?Good morning JD! I think our actual import is closer to 10 million barrels a day... Much of our oil imports support airlines and military aircraft/vehicles. By grounding airlines significant reductions would take place. We will still have access to oil from Mexico and Canada and maybe Venezuela since that is where we get our oil now... it would just cost four times as much...


---------------------------------------------------------
on the price of oil-thread topic:

There have been some HUGE, MEGA oil deposit finds within the last few years, in the Gulf of Mexico, in the Caspean Sea, Canada has developed their converting sludge/sandy oil into pure oil in a more efficient manner...etc, etc, etc.

You would think that these POSITIVE things would have brought the price of oil downwards, but they haven't.

For the most part I agree with what PMP has said and it is a combination of many things....

But MOST importantly, it is WAR and RUMORS of War that speculators USE to their advantage in raising the cost of oil...and also, equally important, the usage of oil goes up dramitically when warring is taking place.....Military vehicles and tanks and humv's all are gas guzzing hogs, rebuilding a community takes also of energy sources like gas generators to fuel it....etc, etc....then rogue terrorists blowing up pipelines and taking them "offline" basically from the world oil supply.....and then

You got the dollar dropping in value....and oil being sold in dollars, so it costs alot more dollars to buy the same amount of oil....period.

I heard on news yesterday that here in the usa, our oil prices have gone up 64% while the Eu's' oil prices have only gone up 45% during the exact same period....affecting us citizens here much more so than them and that is because the Euro is strong and the dollar weak....

So we in the USA are "feeling" the cost rise of oil and by products much moreso than our neighbors.

jdOil prices, like most commodities are based on the value of the US dollar... this does, in fact reflect in the upward comparison of W. Europe gas prices increase to the US. Gas prices in Western Europe are still twice as much as US gas prices but mostly due to taxation.

Oil futures are traded three months out so there is an anticipation of trends of demand that happens every year when school lets out and the weather warms up... people jump in their cars and go to the beach or any place but the house they have been locked up in all winter... Supply and demand and the demand continues to grow and import demand will double in ten years because our population continues to grow and we continue to commute from the suburbs...

Back to the emergency that would happen if Saudi Arabia would go offline... We import a lot of oil from Canada and a large portion is made from oil shale... guess what we have a larger supply of oil shale than the Canadians but the Democrats will not allow it to be made into oil. This could be done in months... Natural gas could be released from federal lands to reduce oil based demand... increase the use of coal to displace imported oil... and, at the same time do alternative energy and punch holes in Alaska and off each coast and America would survive without Saudi Arabian oil.

[Classact]

we have a 698 million barrel reserve.....we use 10 million barrels a day.....that means 69.8 days from now the reserve would be empty.....

do really think that if we decided to completely open up and go 'gung ho' on new production that the oil companies could produce 10 million extra barrels of domestic oil per day in just 70 days?.........more likely at the end of 70 days they MIGHT have decided where to drill and ordered new equipment......We wouldn't import as much oil if it cost $10 - $12 a gallon for gas. We still have the oil available from Canada and Mexico.

[PostmodernProphet]

We wouldn't import as much oil if it cost $10 - $12 a gallon for gas. We still have the oil available from Canada and Mexico.

so then why do we need a strategic reserve....aren't you simply saying the solution is to not use oil.....shut down the airlines, remove half the cars from the road....shucks, problem solved......

you can't pretend that grounding airlines and raising the cost of gas to $12 are steps to avoid an impact upon our economy......they ARE the impact on our economy......

[Classact]

so then why do we need a strategic reserve....aren't you simply saying the solution is to not use oil.....shut down the airlines, remove half the cars from the road....shucks, problem solved......

you can't pretend that grounding airlines and raising the cost of gas to $12 are steps to avoid an impact upon our economy......they ARE the impact on our economy......Oil impacts our economy at $104 but it would impact our economy more if Saudi Arabia oil was taken off the market. Right now everyone seems ready to go to the pump and to pay higher airline fares. Recently the demand has reduced by about 1% because of the high prices for gas but that will end when warm weather comes. The poorest are hurt the most. I was in Korea during the 1973 oil embargo http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1973_oil_crisis and in the states people were doing odd - even days pumping gas... the military parked all non essential vehicles and thermostats were turned way the hell down for heat to the mid 50's F to cut back on oil usage. I bought kerosene for heating my house in 55 gallon drums and it went from $9.00 to $13 for a barrel... my car gas went up from $0.09 to $0.13 a gallon but they limited the amount of gas I could purchase.

The Strategic Oil Reserve is primarily for use of the federal government to fuel the military but there have been several times when oil was sold to stabilize our economy, like after the hurricanes in the Gulf oil production area. Clinton sold some oil from the reserve during his administration but the idea is to have enough oil to go to war to open up an oil supply that is being closed by some aggressive force stopping the flow.

I think President Bush should sell a couple million barrels a day out of the reserve to bring down the gas prices and continue to fill the reserve as he sells it. The average government cost is in the low $30's a barrel stored in the reserve... sell it at costs to the US oil companies and it would reduce bid futures... then buy bid futures from US oil companies at the new bid price... The oil in the reserve is contributed in lieu of dollar payments from US oil companies that produce oil on federal lands so by releasing for sale at costs would allow us to import less and at the same time buy USA produced oil keeping our dollars at home... might piss off Mexico and Canada but they could get over it... that would cause the US dollar to strengthen also since our trade deficit would be less.

[PostmodernProphet]

I think President Bush should sell a couple million barrels a day out of the reserve to bring down the gas prices and continue to fill the reserve as he sells it.

/boggle........how is selling oil and buying it back again going to change supply/demand?.......

[avatar4321]

/boggle........how is selling oil and buying it back again going to change supply/demand?.......

yeah i dont get it either.

[Classact]

/boggle........how is selling oil and buying it back again going to change supply/demand?.......You sell USA produced oil from the SPR at costs (perhaps $30 a barrel) and buy oil from US oil producers in a lesser amount of oil, for example at the current rate... look at the chart http://www.spr.doe.gov/dir/dir.html I think the buy rate averages over a million barrels a month... Sell 2 million of US oil cheap and buy it at new market rate. The government experiences no loss because it sells at costs... this puts 2 million barrels of oil on the US market at a third of world oil prices and leaves all purchases in America... The shock to the futures market would cause the world oil prices to fall and burn some of the speculators badly... the US government could keep sell rates public and purchase rates secret leaving OPEC guessing.

If America suddenly imported 2 million barrels less a month it would impact supply and demand.

[PostmodernProphet]

You sell USA produced oil from the SPR at costs (perhaps $30 a barrel) and buy oil from US oil producers in a lesser amount of oil, for example at the current rate... look at the chart http://www.spr.doe.gov/dir/dir.html I think the buy rate averages over a million barrels a month... Sell 2 million of US oil cheap and buy it at new market rate. The government experiences no loss because it sells at costs... this puts 2 million barrels of oil on the US market at a third of world oil prices and leaves all purchases in America... The shock to the futures market would cause the world oil prices to fall and burn some of the speculators badly... the US government could keep sell rates public and purchase rates secret leaving OPEC guessing.

If America suddenly imported 2 million barrels less a month it would impact supply and demand.

omigorsh....if our government is stupid enough to sell it's oil reserves at under market rate, I'm ready to close up shop and let Mexico take us over today......I certainly hope they aren't doing what you proposed.....you could have the same impact on the market by simply selling two million barrels at market rate and waiting until the prices go down to replace them.......if you did what you propose, I would snap up the barrels you sold for 30, resell a third of them back to you for 90, then sell the other two thirds for 99......God Bless capitalism.........

[Classact]

Have the president make an announcement at 10:00AM that the US SPR will release 10 million barrels at US Government costs of $30.00 a barrel. Wall street goes bonkers and oil prices fall... oil supply from Canada, Mexico and Venezuela are suddenly not needed this month... too much, no way too much oil is on the market plus the US is enjoying cheap American oil... market falls and you buy at new lower rate.

[Classact]

Here's another idea... in stead of using the oil from US producers from federal land to fill the SPR let the producers provide refined gas in equal dollar value to the US government. America has no refined gas reserve so if we would create a gas reserve then when peak demands cause gas prices to soar then the federal government could release gas from a Strategic Gas/Diesel Reserve. Europe has a refined petroleum reserve and assisted us following the hurricane damage to our refineries and it would make sense for America to have one to balance out peaks and in cases of emergency.

[PostmodernProphet]

Have the president make an announcement at 10:00AM that the US SPR will release 10 million barrels at US Government costs of $30.00 a barrel. Wall street goes bonkers and oil prices fall... oil supply from Canada, Mexico and Venezuela are suddenly not needed this month... too much, no way too much oil is on the market plus the US is enjoying cheap American oil... market falls and you buy at new lower rate.

uh, 10 million barrels isn't what the US needs this month, it's what it needs by 10 P.M........be that as it may, you would still be better off announcing at 10 AM that you have 10 million barrels for sale at $100 a barrel, taking what drop there is and buying back at <$100.......

[PostmodernProphet]

so do you create your reserve in airline fuel?....deisel?.....leaded, unleaded, California grade, Chicago grade?......to many different types of fuel........

[Classact]

uh, 10 million barrels isn't what the US needs this month, it's what it needs by 10 P.M........be that as it may, you would still be better off announcing at 10 AM that you have 10 million barrels for sale at $100 a barrel, taking what drop there is and buying back at <$100.......Look... we are buying oil for the SPR at market prices $105 today so if we sell at $30 a barrel and the price of oil drops to $75 a barrel then it would be beneficial to the government and the economy. It would have the opposite effect as taking 20 or 30 million barrels off the market due to the price difference... OPEC would not be able to time the market and by doing this the government would end up in the green along with a thriving economy. It would put future traders in CHECK.

[PostmodernProphet]

Look... we are buying oil for the SPR at market prices $105 today so if we sell at $30 a barrel and the price of oil drops to $75 a barrel then it would be beneficial to the government and the economy. It would have the opposite effect as taking 20 or 30 million barrels off the market due to the price difference... OPEC would not be able to time the market and by doing this the government would end up in the green along with a thriving economy. It would put future traders in CHECK.

you don't understand....if selling our reserve brings oil down to $75 a barrel, it won't be because we sold it for $30, it will be because we put 10 million barrels on the market (which by the way I doubt will bring the cost down to $75).....selling it for $30 will have no additional effect except to make one lucky buyer a windfall profit....let's keep this simple....the result you desire could equally be brought about simply by not BUYING 10 million barrels that day....and that wouldn't cost us a penny......

[Classact]

you don't understand....if selling our reserve brings oil down to $75 a barrel, it won't be because we sold it for $30, it will be because we put 10 million barrels on the market (which by the way I doubt will bring the cost down to $75).....selling it for $30 will have no additional effect except to make one lucky buyer a windfall profit....let's keep this simple....the result you desire could equally be brought about simply by not BUYING 10 million barrels that day....and that wouldn't cost us a penny......Yes, I gave it more thought and agree that use of the SPR could only temporarily cause changes in the market and then nothing near a $30 drop in oil prices.

There was a congressman from MD was talking about oil peaks yesterday and says world oil will peak in 2015... that means that after the peak the supply will no longer to meet demand... we will be thinking give me the good ol days when oil was $105 then... I see a lot of poor people on mopeds since there wont be used hybrids by then to meet the demand.

[PostmodernProphet]

personally, I think any solution which doesn't result in a total movement from petroleum based energy to renewable energy simply postpones disaster.....the sooner we start transition, the better.....

[JohnDoe]

personally, I think any solution which doesn't result in a total movement from petroleum based energy to renewable energy simply postpones disaster.....the sooner we start transition, the better.....Which could save America in the long run and keep us in a first place position in the world, including in the manufacturing area, and maybe even over and above China because China is looking to increase their OIL use in manufacturing, when it hits $200 bucks a barrel, the cost of production for them goes up tremendously and their Chinese made goods, even with their cheap labor, will or could become more expensive to import here than it would be to make the goods in a windmill run factory here or a solar powered manufacturer here...even with our higher wages.

Then, of course China's demand for goods decreases, which then would reduce the demand on the global market place for oil, coupled with the USA decreasing their demand on oil, the price of oil will drop and overnight we could see us in a situation where we have another 200 years supply of oil.

BUT, hahahahahaha, then with the price of oil now dropping in value.... after working our way through all of the senarios above....human consumption will rise and China could come around again, and compete on the global market of manufacturing...peaking again, slowing the USA's production again...

unless we find another thing to hang our hats on that is proprietory, with global reach and ingenuity....that we Americans do best?

it is a vicious cycle that we have the brains and the money to keep ahead of imo....

jd

[Dilloduck]

Which could save America in the long run and keep us in a first place position in the world, including in the manufacturing area, and maybe even over and above China because China is looking to increase their OIL use in manufacturing, when it hits $200 bucks a barrel, the cost of production for them goes up tremendously and their Chinese made goods, even with their cheap labor, will or could become more expensive to import here than it would be to make the goods in a windmill run factory here or a solar powered manufacturer here...even with our higher wages.

Then, of course China's demand for goods decreases, which then would reduce the demand on the global market place for oil, coupled with the USA decreasing their demand on oil, the price of oil will drop and overnight we could see us in a situation where we have another 200 years supply of oil.

BUT, hahahahahaha, then with the price of oil now dropping in value.... after working our way through all of the senarios above....human consumption will rise and China could come around again, and compete on the global market of manufacturing...peaking again, slowing the USA's production again...

unless we find another thing to hang our hats on that is proprietory, with global reach and ingenuity....that we Americans do best?

it is a vicious cycle that we have the brains and the money to keep ahead of imo....

jd


but what if we get hit by an asteroid ? I see you didn't figure THAT into the equation !!!! :coffee:

[Classact]

but what if we get hit by an asteroid ? I see you didn't figure THAT into the equation !!!! :coffee:With the lack of activity in congress I'm beginning to believe that dooms day prediction of 2012 is for real... no plan for energy and no plan for you guys to pay my Social Security and Medicare...

If oil peaks in 2015 and we don't have a miracle then the poor will rise and punish the environmentalists and anyone in government... better have a gun collection and lots of ammunition!

[JohnDoe]

but what if we get hit by an asteroid ? I see you didn't figure THAT into the equation !!!! :coffee:
Just a polar shift, when the planets aline in the center of the Milkey way, in 2012, could do the same or worse as an asteroid, with the earth movement/quakes, world wide! :poke:

jd

[JohnDoe]

With the lack of activity in congress I'm beginning to believe that dooms day prediction of 2012 is for real... no plan for energy and no plan for you guys to pay my Social Security and Medicare...

If oil peaks in 2015 and we don't have a miracle then the poor will rise and punish the environmentalists and anyone in government... better have a gun collection and lots of ammunition!

I thought this when we went through the 6 years of repubs in full power and SPENDING like there was NO TOMORROW....seriously, i did have Christian and Myan prophesy flash before me in thought.

jd

[Pale Rider]

I thought this when we went through the 6 years of repubs in full power and SPENDING like there was NO TOMORROW....seriously, i did have Christian and Myan prophesy flash before me in thought.

jd

Are you a doomsdayer jd?

[JohnDoe]

Are you a doomsdayer jd?

let me begin by paraphrasing a quote from the Bible:
Not even the Son knows the day or the hour...

soooo, i KNOW that i certainly am not going to know when doomsday will be...

i can only recognize the ''signs of the time'', and i have seen or feel i am seeing many of these prophesied signs, come in to fruition....but i NOTE that many more prophesies must be forfilled before the actual ''day'', and i also note that things seem to be moving very quickly.

my mother reminds me that in her childhood, her parents and she.... thought hitler was the antichrist, they believed when israel was given her homeland country in 1948 that isaiah's prophesy was forfilled and the second coming was within their reach to see...just around the corner, that was 60 years ago and her parents are now dead.....

so, i would not be surprised if we are approaching the end of time as we know it, and i would also not be surprised if it didn't happen in my lifetime either!

that's my best answer!

jd