The US Economy is Fine (Really)

[red states rule]

Despite the liberal media best efforts, the US economy is really doing fine. I hope Pres Bush points out how well the tax cuts worked, and pulled the US economy out of the Clinton recession

The Economy Is Fine (Really)
By BRIAN WESBURY
January 28, 2008; Page A15


snip


With housing so weak, the recent softness in production and durable goods orders is understandable. But housing is now a small share of GDP (4.5%). And it has fallen so much already that it is highly unlikely to drive the economy into recession all by itself. Exports are 12% of the economy, and are growing at a 13.6% rate. The boom in exports is overwhelming the loss from housing.

Personal income is up 6.1% during the year ending in November, while small-business income accelerated in October and November, during the height of the credit crisis. In fact, after subtracting income taxes, rent, mortgages, car leases and loans, debt service on credit cards and property taxes, incomes rose 3.9% faster than inflation in the year through September. Commercial paper issuance is rising again, as are mortgage applications.

Some large companies outside of finance and home building are reporting lower profits, but the over-reaction to very spotty negative news is astounding. For example, Intel's earnings disappointed, creating a great deal of fear about technology. Lost in the pessimism is the fact that 20 out of 24 S&P 500 technology companies that have reported earnings so far have beaten Wall Street estimates.

Models based on recent monetary and tax policy suggest real GDP will grow at a 3% to 3.5% rate in 2008, while the probability of recession this year is 10%. This was true before recent rate cuts and stimulus packages. Now that the Fed has cut interest rates by 175 basis points, the odds of a huge surge in growth later in 2008 have grown. The biggest threat to the economy is still inflation, not recession.


snip

The good news is that the U.S. financial system is not as fragile as many pundits suggest. Nor is the economy showing anything other than normal signs of stress. Assuming a 1.5% annualized growth rate in the fourth quarter, real GDP will have grown by 2.8% in the year ending in December 2007 and 3.2% in the second half during the height of the so-called credit crunch. Initial unemployment claims, a very consistent canary in the coal mine for recessions, are nowhere near a level of concern.

Because all debt rests on a foundation of real economic activity, and the real economy is still resilient, the current red alert about a crashing house of cards looks like another false alarm. Warren Buffett, Wilbur Ross and Bank of America are buying, and there is still $1.1 trillion in corporate cash on the books. The bench of potential buyers on the sidelines is deep and strong. Dow 15,000 looks much more likely than Dow 10,000. Keep the faith and stay invested. It's a wonderful buying opportunity.


for the compete article

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120147855494820719.html?mod=opinion_main_comment aries

[gabosaurus]

Keep telling yourself that. Perhaps you will actually mean it after a while.


WASHINGTON — Will George W. Bush be remembered as the president who lost the economy while trying to win a war?

Bush has spent years presiding over an economic climate of growth that would be the envy of most presidents. Yet much to the consternation of his political advisers, he has had trouble getting credit for it, in large part because Americans were consumed by Iraq.

The chaotic events of the past week — wild stock market swings, a major cut in the interest rate from the Federal Reserve and a rare bipartisan deal between Bush and congressional Democrats on an economic stimulus package — has turned that equation on its head, just in time for Bush to deliver his final State of the Union address tonight.


http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/front/5490317.html

[retiredman]

If the economy is really doing so great, why the need for an economic stimulus package that will be the number one priority in Dubya's SOTU address? Why the extraordinary reaction by the Fed?

[red states rule]

If the economy is really doing so great, why the need for an economic stimulus package that will be the number one priority in Dubya's SOTU address? Why the extraordinary reaction by the Fed?

I never have a problem with getting more of my money back from the government. The problem with libs will be, with falling interest rates people will be able to refi their high interest rates, people will be able to buy a home, they will have more disposable income, and the economy will continue to grow

What I do not support is giving tax rebates to people who do not pay taxes

Once again the dreams of libs of a crumbling US economy will fail to come true

Much like their dreams of surrender and failure in Iraq

[retiredman]

I never have a problem with getting more of my money back from the government. The problem with libs will be, with falling interest rates people will be able to refi their high interest rates, people will be able to buy a home, they will have more disposable income, and the economy will continue to grow

What I do not support is giving tax rebates to people who do not pay taxes

Once again the dreams of libs of a crumbling US economy will fail to come true

Much like their dreams of surrender and failure in Iraq



again...just explain why an economy that is doing so well needs an emergency economic stimulus package?

simple question. If you don't actually HAVE an answer, you don't need to waste your time and mine by bullshitting.

[red states rule]

again...just explain why an economy that is doing so well needs an emergency economic stimulus package?

simple question. If you don't actually HAVE an answer, you don't need to waste your time and mine by bullshitting.

The economy has some minor issues that will be solved with tax rebates and lower interest rates

Right now, the phones are jammed with people doing refi's on their ARM's and fixed rate loans. There is nearly a 2 hour wait to speak to a mortgage rep

Letting people keeping more of their money is always good for the economy

[Kathianne]

again...just explain why an economy that is doing so well needs an emergency economic stimulus package?

simple question. If you don't actually HAVE an answer, you don't need to waste your time and mine by bullshitting.

I don't think the economy has been doing 'just fine'. I think some areas are in trouble and others are ok. On the other hand, there are indicators that the worst may be over, so why stimulate? It was done under Carter and was a disaster. Considering that the data runs at least 6 months behind, nearly always we've bottomed out on recessions before it's acknowledge there was one.

[retiredman]

The economy has some minor issues that will be solved with tax rebates and lower interest rates

Right now, the phones are jammed with people doing refi's on their ARM's and fixed rate loans. There is nearly a 2 hour wait to speak to a mortgage rep

Letting people keeping more of their money is always good for the economy


minor issues? is that why the fed cut rates in a method not used for nearly a quarter of a century?

If there were just some "minor issues", why would the president make the economic stimulus package the centerpiece of his final SOTU?

[red states rule]

minor issues? is that why the fed cut rates in a method not used for nearly a quarter of a century?

If there were just some "minor issues", why would the president make the economic stimulus package the centerpiece of his final SOTU?

Since you probably did not read all the stats on the economy, I am not surprised by your lame response

As far as the "mortgage meltdown" the liberal media rants about, it is a fact only 5% of people are latewith their payments

With lower rates, they can refi to a lower rate

Why not check out the current rates ans see for yourself

[retiredman]

Since you probably did not read all the stats on the economy, I am not surprised by your lame response

As far as the "mortgage meltdown" the liberal media rants about, it is a fact only 5% of people are latewith their payments

With lower rates, they can refi to a lower rate

Why not check out the current rates ans see for yourself

so the entire state of the economy can be completely and accurately summaraize with one percentage figure?:laugh2:

again...please explain why the economy needs a "stimulus" package if it is doing just fine?

[red states rule]

so the entire state of the economy can be completely and accurately summaraize with one percentage figure?:laugh2:

again...please explain why the economy needs a "stimulus" package if it is doing just fine?

Right now, the biggest drag on the economy, and the libs #1 talking point, is the issues in the housing industry

With lower rates (and a possible half point cut on Wed) the market will quickly fix itself

People will refi, new buyers wil enter the market, people will be able to sell their existing homes, and some will buy their first one

All in all, it is looking bad for the Dems and their "sky is falling" rants

[retiredman]

so....from your perspective, we don't NEED any economic stimulus legislation....all that needs to happen is a .5% rate cut by the feds, everybody does the refi dance and we're all set? have I got that right?

[red states rule]

so....from your perspective, we don't NEED any economic stimulus legislation....all that needs to happen is a .5% rate cut by the feds, everybody does the refi dance and we're all set? have I got that right?

There is never a bad time for tax cuts. I do not care why they do them - as long as they do them

I get to keep more of my money. there is less money in DC for the pork, the economy grows, and libs are depressed over the good economic news

What more can anyone ask for?

[retiredman]

There is never a bad time for tax cuts. I do not care why they do them - as long as they do them

I get to keep more of my money. there is less money in DC for the pork, the economy grows, and libs are depressed over the good economic news

What more can anyone ask for?


so... a .5% cut by the feds should fix everything? gas prices will come down, housing prices will rebound, job creation will rejuvenate....

no stimulus package needed...economy's doing just fine without it. Is that your take?

[red states rule]

so... a .5% cut by the feds should fix everything? gas prices will come down, housing prices will rebound, job creation will rejuvenate....

no stimulus package needed...economy's doing just fine without it. Is that your take?

Keep the liberal talking pioints flowing MM - without facts on your side that is all you have left

To you and your kind the US is days away from another Great Depression

Yet over the last year, what has your party done to address the above issues you listed

Try NOTHING

The Us economy id doing fine, and the tax rebates and interets rate cuts will give the economy a shot in the arm - and it will keep rolling

[retiredman]

Keep the liberal talking pioints flowing MM - without facts on your side that is all you have left

To you and your kind the US is days away from another Great Depression

Yet over the last year, what has your party done to address the above issues you listed

Try NOTHING

The Us economy id doing fine, and the tax rebates and interets rate cuts will give the economy a shot in the arm - and it will keep rolling


and I thought republicans were for LESS government interference.... why stimulate an economy that is doing fine? why tinker with "success"?

[red states rule]

and I thought republicans were for LESS government interference.... why stimulate an economy that is doing fine? why tinker with "success"?

Tax cuts is not "tinkering" with the economy

Tax cuts are the right thing to do. It is our money MM - not the governments

I know that comes as a huge shock to a liberal like you

[Kathianne]

and I thought republicans were for LESS government interference.... why stimulate an economy that is doing fine? why tinker with "success"?

I've already agreed with you! The last cut from the fed and another that's expected very soon should be enough. What's better about that is that if it does appear we've already 'weathered' the worse and things are heating up again, it's easy to raise the rates again. Unlike the payouts, that are added onto the deficit.

[retiredman]

Tax cuts is not "tinkering" with the economy

Tax cuts are the right thing to do. It is our money MM - not the governments

I know that comes as a huge shock to a liberal like you

so the economic stimulus package is nothing but a tax cut? that's all there is to it? why call it an economic stimulus package, then...why imply that the economy needs stimulating if all it is is another tax cut?

[red states rule]

so the economic stimulus package is nothing but a tax cut? that's all there is to it? why call it an economic stimulus package, then...why imply that the economy needs stimulating if all it is is another tax cut?

Republicans want tax rebates, and tax cuts for business. Which is always a good thing to do. It will cause economic growth and bring in more tax revenue to the government

Meanwhile Dems want to give tax rebates to people who do not ay taxes, extend unemployment benefits, and other handouts. Which does nothg to grow the economy

Meanwhile MM, where is your Dems plans to solve this "failing" economy?

[retiredman]

Republicans want tax rebates, and tax cuts for business. Which is always a good thing to do. It will cause economic growth and bring in more tax revenue to the government

Meanwhile Dems want to give tax rebates to people who do not ay taxes, extend unemployment benefits, and other handouts. Which does nothg to grow the economy

Meanwhile MM, where is your Dems plans to solve this "failing" economy?

I thought the economy wasn't failing. make up your mind. either it is in trouble and NEEDS stimulus, or it isn't.

[red states rule]

I thought the economy wasn't failing. make up your mind. either it is in trouble and NEEDS stimulus, or it isn't.

I was using the libs talking point MM. I guess it went over your pointy head

BTW, check out current mortgage rates

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates/

[retiredman]

I was using the libs talking point MM. I guess it went over your pointy head

BTW, check out current mortgage rates

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates/

why did Bush talk about an economic stimulus package if the economy does not need stimulus? Why would the president waste so much of his final SOTU on a non-issue?

[red states rule]

why did Bush talk about an economic stimulus package if the economy does not need stimulus? Why would the president waste so much of his final SOTU on a non-issue?

You will never get it MM, Your hate for Pres Bush is so huge, you never see the forest for the trees

There is never a bad time for tax cuts, and it will only help grow the economy even more

Soemthing libs like you want to try and prevent. You want a bad economy so you can use it as an election issue

[retiredman]

You will never get it MM, Your hate for Pres Bush is so huge, you never see the forest for the trees

There is never a bad time for tax cuts, and it will only help grow the economy even more

Soemthing libs like you want to try and prevent. You want a bad economy so you can use it as an election issue


why do you avoid answering simple questions?

why does an economy that is doing fine need emergency stimulus? why would the president make that stimulus the most important part of his SOTU address if the economy were, in fact, doing fine?

[red states rule]

why do you avoid answering simple questions?

why does an economy that is doing fine need emergency stimulus? why would the president make that stimulus the most important part of his SOTU address if the economy were, in fact, doing fine?

I have said there are minor issues with the economy - there always are

In a few months you libs will be ignoring the good economic news as you are the good news from Iraq

[retiredman]

I have said there are minor issues with the economy - there always are

In a few months you libs will be ignoring the good economic news as you are the good news from Iraq


do "minor issues with the economy" normally deserve top billing in the president's SOTU?

[glockmail]

do "minor issues with the economy" normally deserve top billing in the president's SOTU? In order to address the MSM and liberal attack on the economy, yes.

[retiredman]

In order to address the MSM and liberal attack on the economy, yes.

wow. you have gotta be dizzy after typing THAT!:lol: